As it stands, Geelong is a mediocre football team. After Round 17, the Cats are in eighth position, hanging in by percentage.
The complete truth is, despite making the preliminary final in two consecutive seasons, Geelong hasn’t been a great team for a number of years.
Of course, adding Patrick Dangerfield has ensured the Cats maintain relevancy and experience relative success.
It isn’t a bridge too far, however, to suggest that he is the only reason the club has stayed afloat since his arrival.
Dangerfield is one of the league’s best players. Joel Selwood is one of the best captains in the league and they are surrounded by arguably the best midfield group.
Joel Selwood and Gary Ablett look dejected (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
On paper at least.
Bringing in Gary Ablett was a nice story, and he’s still playing good footy.
There is no issue with bringing ‘the Little Master’ back to the club for the twilight of his career.
Clearly though, having great names in the midfield hasn’t produced great result in 2018.
Stephen Wells’ and Geelong’s drafting success is well-known, and they continue to produce, having drafted Tim Kelly and Charlie Constable in particular this season.
If the tactic is to overpower the opposition with elite midfield strength, Geelong’s doing a poor job of it.
They’re ranked ninth in the league for disposals, seventh for tackles, and sixth for clearances. They’re ranked 11th for disposal efficiency, 17th for centre clearances and ninth for metres gained, when the move the ball to the outside.
On average, the Cats lose the tackle count by nearly five per match, and they go down on clearances.
Rhys Stanley as the number one ruck is fine at the moment given the spread and contested marking he can provide around the ground, however 2018 has shown what a dominant ruckman can truly provide.
It’s also puzzling why the Cats insist on playing Patrick Dangerfield predominately in attack, as the stats suggest the ball won’t get down to him enough for him to be the matchwinner.
He needs to be in the midfield and using his strengths to push the Cats forward, however that’s far from the only issue.
The modern game is all about being able to get the ball forward and locking it into your forward line.
Geelong is ranked seventh in inside 50s and seventh for tackles inside 50, which is fine for a team going through the motions in the current state of the league.
These numbers have improved with the inclusion of Jamaine Jones and Quinton Narkle in recent weeks, who are both exciting players in the forward 50. Lachie Fogarty too has been a great tackling option in attack, while Brandan Parfitt’s form has dropped off since returning to the senior team.
Where is Patrick Dangerfield most valuable for the Cats? (Photo: James Elsby/AFL Media/Getty Images)
The main issue with having these young players in the team is that they’re only really boosting one area of the team.
Narkle and Parfitt are great finishers, however the former has only played three games and may get tired very soon, while Parfitt is far better suited to playing higher up the ground, as he did earlier in the season.
When Fogarty is in the team, he adds great pressure, however he has 5.10 for the season and simply cannot finish well in his first season at the club.
Tom Hawkins is the only reliable player in attack, and he truly has been a star for the team.
He’s averaging a career-high 1.4 forward 50 tackles this season, while putting elite numbers of 15 disposals, seven marks and 2.5 goals per game. He’s the only one applying pressure and producing at a high level, which has kept Geelong in many games.
Then there’s Dan Menzel, who has 16 goals in six games, but his lack of defensive pressure is a genuine liability.
This group of full-time forwards, to put it bluntly, isn’t good enough to be a genuine finals team.
Other options for the Cats don’t inspire a lot of confidence. Kelly, Menegola and Dangerfield are midfielders who are averaging over a goal a game while being required to play far more time out of position than should be the case.
Gryan Miers doesn’t tackle enough in the VFL to warrant selection at the moment, while the injury-prone duo of Lincoln McCarthy and Nakia Cockatoo aren’t reliable solutions, even when fit.
Dysfunctional may be too strong, but this forward line mismatch is unsustainable and can be concerning for the future if the Cats don’t make smart moves in the draft and off-season. Esava Ratugolea is already an important player for the club and has been sorely missed.
Geelong’s defence has been seen as their strength this season, despite the ad hoc nature of its makeup.
The team’s defence thrives on rushed opposition kicks, which suits the intercept marking of Henry, Stewart, Taylor and to an extent, Blicavs.
It’s easy to be attracted to intercepts, and it’s easy to be attracted to the fact Geelong has conceded the second-least amount of points for the year.
Against teams that move the ball quickly and lower their eyes, Geelong’s defence looks all at sea.
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Blicavs has been great in his new role this year, but there are moments in every game where he tries to do too much, getting caught out of position.
Kolodjashnij isn’t quite a second key defender, and Henry struggles defensively when the ball isn’t bombed in.
Stewart is the best player Geelong has in its back half, while Bews is solid and unassuming.
One thing all these players have in common, as indicated by the negative 2.5 “tackles inside 50” differential, is that they’re relatively one-paced and get tackled easily when the ball is on the ground.
Tuohy is the only one with pace, while Duncan tends to drift into defence to help run the ball out.
The strengths Geelong have in the backline are relatively predictable, and good teams know how to shut the team down.
The worrying aspect of Geelong’s supposed strength is that waiting for Lachie Henderson to come back doesn’t fix much. While he is a very good player, he only offers improvement on the traits that already exist in the current set up. Taylor too, is similar.
It’s easy to be critical of Geelong after a loss, and given the season is extremely tight, having six games left and being in eighth position mightn’t cause the club to panic yet.
We all expect the Cats to be one of the top tier teams when looking at the names on paper.
The truth is that Geelong is a mediocre team that has a level of inflexibility that prevents it from rising to the top tier any time soon.
Papering over the cracks is entirely possible with Dangerfield playing in the midfield and maybe throwing Henderson into the forward line upon his senior return, however without Chris Scott becoming inventive over the next few weeks and in the off-season, there could be some issues moving forward.
No team wants to be mediocre, but it’s the reality of Geelong’s situation.
Having good kids on the list will only take the club so far and if things don’t change, Geelong will be seen as just another middle-of-the-road team for years to come.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
Geelongs' problems are many. They need a decent tap ruckman to play to the talent in the midfield. The difference between the top 9 players and the bottom 9 is too great. The forward line is a shambles and Geelongs achilles heal is not biting the bullet and cutting injury prone players aka McCarthy and Cockatoo. We persisted with Vardy and Menzell for years only to trade Vardy to WC. The result has given Geelong an almost VFL quality forward line for much of the season other than Hawkins. I'm not sure how many seasons you give a coach but Scott will need to show some light at the end of the tunnel to Geelong fans fairly quickly.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Geelong, St Kilda and Collingwood were the powerhouses of the competition in 2009-2011. None have saluted since. Who will be first is now the question to be asked.
Alicesprings
Guest
Their form is puzzling. Obviously bias but I reckon our list is in pretty good shape and would be right to expect a top4 finish. Good balance of kids and senior players. Only 6 weeks to sort it out!
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Yes it is Ditto, see my quote from Cat in March on Josh article that the Cats were going to win the flag. It is in here Ditto read it yourself. cat is consistently inconsistent and as such needs to be called out on it. https://www.theroar.com.au/2018/02/27/im-tipping-geelong-win-flag-not-just-gary/
Ditto
Guest
PTS, have to defend Cat on this one, his position on Motlop is consistent with his opinion last year.
Cat
Roar Guru
Please quote this 'bagging' of Motlop you claim I did.
Cat
Roar Guru
To me the Saints are the perfect example. Cats and Saints played off for the '09 flag. Saints then had two goes at the '10 flag while the Cats won the '11 flag. Saints then went the '5 year plan' that is now in its 7th year and looks as far away from being a contender as they were 7 years ago. While the Cats haven't won another flag in that period we have been playing finals and giving supporters some hope and joy along the way. I know which path I'd take every single time ... and its isn't the 'Aints way.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Most of the Lions high picks are playing elsewhere and going bloody well. But I know exactly what you mean! St Kilda, Melbourne & Carlton have no excuses as they are in the centre of Melbourne and don’t have the issue teams like Lions, Suns & Giants have in recruiting and keeping From Heartland states
Cat
Roar Guru
So a proper rebuild. Is this where a club just gives up for 5 years in the hope of maybe, someday, possibly contending again? Ala saints, Carlton, Brisbane and Melbourne and all the rest of the five year plans that turned into 5 lots of 5 year plans? What should the Cats do? Play young kids? We're doing that. Turn the list over? We're doing that. The only thing the Cats haven't done is actually tank for high picks ... and those are no guarantee to help (how many did Melbourne get wrong? How have all the Saints, Carlton and Brisbane high picks pushed them rapidly up the ladder?)
Cat
Roar Guru
I think Scott just played a much more congested/clog style of footy while we had no one, apart from Hawkins, fit in the forward line. As we've gotten players back he has opened the game up more. Unfortunately, probably too much, too soon. I think it is also a matter of lack of experience with each other. The starting 22 has changed so much each week and so many players have missed large chunks of the season that there is no coherency as a side. For example, Scott Selwood is important to Geelong but a large part of the team has barely played a game or two with him. The poor forward line has had no chance to form any sort of familiarity with each other. Early in the season it looked like Ratugolea might actually be that 2nd tall Geelong has been missing for years but he broke both bones in his leg. Crameri looked like he might be able to fill in but he got poked in the eye and had to have two rounds of laser eye surgery. Menzel started the season averaging 3 goals a game then has a bad reaction to a cortizone injection and misses 10 weeks. Gregson is out with another stress fracture in his foot. McCarthy can't get up for a game. Cockatoo finally gets his hammies staying together only to take not one but two knocks to the knee that will see him probably only play 5 games this year. Narkle looks a likely kid but he is young and missed the first half of the year coming back from last years ACL. Keep in mind too Geelong has debuted (IIRC) 8 players this year and in most games has played around 10 players with 50 games or less experience. The longer the season goes the more toll it takes on players not used to the rigors of a whole AFL season.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
All fair comments Reuster. Interesting to get a perspective from a genuine Cat supporter who doesn't just comment in a juvenile Bahahahahaha like another well known Cats poster on this site.
reuster75
Guest
You're right in that Cats are flying to pinch a flag (and have been doing so for past few years) but that's been more down to trying to pinch one whilst the Dangerfield/Selwood axis is still in its prime and whilst we had the lonegan/taylor/mackie axis down back. The clogged footy we play is a direct reaction to our defence being fairly week for a while and Scott uses the clog style to try and protect it. I have felt shades of Carlton and their obsession with trying to win a flag with Judd in our approach last few years and it's time to accept what we are (a middling team) and embark on a proper rebuild/restructure of the list.
reuster75
Guest
The thing for me with Geelong these last few years is that Chris Scott has proven adept at managing to set the team up in response to what the opposition is doing, but doesn't seem to set us up to consistently play on the front foot. How much of this is down to the club's insistence on making finals every year (I know Brian Cook has denied this but I do feel it has definitely been a thing these past few years due to the stadium upgrade, which is understandable) and how much of it is down to the preference of a Scott from a coaching perspective is an interesting question. I understand and accept we don't have the players to play as we did in the past but whenever I watch us play I have no idea what it is we're trying to achieve any more. I think this off-season the club really needs to think long and hard about where we're at as two losing preliminary finals the past two seasons aren't truly reflective of where we're at.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
In classic Cat after bagging Motlop mercilessly last year and being glad to be rid of him you now claims he is a creative goal sneak Scott played out of position? You can't have it both ways Cat. You change your opinion whenever it suits your narrative.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
IMO Scott is trying to snare a flag in the final year of clog footy before it all changes. Apart from the losses to the Bombers and the Dogs they would have been right up there contending for a flag. Now, top 4 seems quite unlikely and the list hasn't shown consistency enough in finals recently to think they can win 4 in a row. Dangerfield has recently gone public in support of keeping an open mind to rule changes. You can't blame him as the clog footy the Cats play has had an impact on his output this year. Still a great player but not what he has been. Open the game up in 2019 with rule changes and players like Dangerfield and Dusty will be free to do what they do.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
As the great Titus O'Reily said "their 3 player policy is continuing to produce mixed results".
DingoGray
Roar Guru
When Ablett returned to Geelong I was really excited by the idea of seeing one of Ablett and Dangerfield permanently in the forward 50. I have been disappointed not to have seen this occur as much. I probably share the idea of Ablett should be spending more time forward. Good points you make on the maligned injury types. Thoughts on the defensive difference ? Is that more injury related as well. Or just fatigue of the season having impact on those performances ?
Cat
Roar Guru
I can tell you the vast majority of changes are not planned. Its through injuries. We've simply got too many injury prone players on the list (Menzel, McCarthy, Cockatoo, Gregson, Scooter Selwood, [notice too they are all centre/forward players]). Unfortunately they are all players who have some some big potential but simply can't stay on the park. They are hard to let go because if they ever come good it will hurt to see them in other colours. On top of the perennially injured add in non-typical injuries to Henderson, Taylor, Ratugolea and Black as well as a ruck division who have seriously gone backwards and its a recipe for struggle town. There are things Chris Scott is doing wrong, IMO. Ablett should be playing more forward and Danger more midfield. I think their roles are currently backwards. Scott has also been the death knell for any small forward at Geelong. He keeps taking creative goal sneaks (think Motlop and Stevie J who used to kick 40+) and turning them into disappearing midfielders. Scott had Josh Caddy at his disposal for years too and never used him properly.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
For me the Cats haven’t really gelled or nailed their best 22 yet. For me and it’s seems to have been a Chris Scott characteristic last couple of years and at times has worked is quite a significant amount of chopping and changing. I might be wrong but not many times in last couple of years have Geelong gone from one game to the next with the same side. A lot of that maybe outside of Scott’s control (ie. injuries and suspension), but for me I feel there’s too many times Scott manages players. The other thing that for me seems to have changed is the defensive aspect of the Cats. Early in the year they managed to always defend at all costs. You had to earn every goal. That defensive resolve for me looks to have reduced. Again is there drop off by the Cats or teams working them out ? I actually think they’ve punched above their weight early on in the season. I think ultimately they are only are 7-10 team.