We’ve said all year that the easy-looking rounds are always the one you should be most worried about.
Come Sunday morning there will be at least one result which, in hindsight, made very obvious and perfect sense that didn’t exist last Thursday. Beware the upset, we’ve been saying.
I reckon the first week of the playoff for 2018 is one of those weeks, but then maybe the argument exists that that week isn’t as easy as it looks. Spoiler alert: we all have different views of ‘easy’ this week. Very different, in fact.
So where is this week’s upset? What would even constitute an upset this week? The Sharks beating the Crusaders definitely qualifies, but could either the Chiefs or Hurricanes winning be called an upset?
Harry jagging four from four; that would be the upset…
ROUND 19: Geoff 7; Nobes 6; Digger and The Crowd 4; Brett 4, and Harry 3
OVERALL: Geoff 84; Nobes 83; The Crowd 77; Digger 76; Brett 75; Harry 69.
Geoff
Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Highlanders, Jaguares
Another season has flown by, eight coaches already poring over their player lists and formulating strategies for next season, another seven wondering what the point of the next couple of weeks is while the last man standing, Scott Robertson, works on his dance moves for this year’s presentation ceremony.
But in the interests of going through the process, and respectful that all remaining teams do have some little chance, let’s see if we can find four winners. The Chiefs look like one, they have young, quick backs in form at the right time, as well as serious grunt returning up front. It will take a major form turnaround for the stuttering Hurricanes to get up, despite home ground advantage.
The Sharks play New Zealand as well as any overseas side, but the Crusaders are in fine nick right now. A great contest awaits in Sydney, site of the drought breaking Australian franchise win a few weeks back. I just can’t warm to the Tahs as much without Michael Hooper – the Landers to atone for last time.
Ash Dixon of the Highlanders celebrates with his teammates. (Photo by Rob Jefferies/Getty Images)
I mentioned in my Monday column that the Lions are a 15 per cent inferior side to last year – that still makes them very good, despite question marks over their halves. The Jaguares have gone off the boil a bit, but there are mitigating factors and leading players returning this week. Jaguares it is, by a whisker, although expect plenty of wild mood swings, back and forth, throughout the match.
SURE THING: Waisake Naholo, fresh from cutting Jack Maddocks in half last week, will line up Taqele Naiyarovoro and foolishly try the same thing. He will fail his concussion test when he insists he’s not at Allianz but in South Dunedin, just waiting for his mates Lopeti and Amanaki to come out of the gents.
Nobes
Tips: Hurricanes, Crusaders, Highlanders, Jaguares
For the games in New Zealand next weekend, I think that the Sharks do not have much of a chance against the Crusaders. They would have to score a lot of points against a great defence and a team that is used to playing this type of games.
The other encounter is a much harder call. The Hurricanes have been playing below par the last leg of the regular season but I have a strong feeling that the Barrett brothers will rise for the occasion and the Canes will snap this one in a thriller.
In Sydney, the Waratahs will need the best Bernard Foley and a strong show from the forwards if they want to take the Highlanders. I will pick the team from New Zealand because they rested six All Blacks last weekend just thinking of this game.
The Jaguares will play the Lions in the altitude where they lost all previous games, but this time they rested most of the starters last weekend. The Lions need a strong game from Elton Jantjies and the centres. On the other hand, Nicolas Sanchez and Emiliano Bofelli will need to be accurate with their feet every time they have a chance to go for the post.
Agustin Creevy of the Jaguares runs with the ball (Photo by Gabriel Rossi/Getty Images)
The interpretation of the scrum laws by the officials will have a strong influence in the end result of this game. I will have to go with Jags with serious doubts, but I cannot go any other way.
There you have it, not many straight forward calls.
SURE THING: I will regret one or two of my tips.
Digger
Tips: Hurricanes, Crusaders, Highlanders, Lions
Momentum is key for me heading into this stage of the season and a few of the sides have very little of it, namely the Sharks, Jaguares, Waratahs and Hurricanes.
It is difficult to see anything other than a Crusaders win and Christchurch semi-final while the Jaguares form of late doesn’t inspire me to tip them against a more seasoned Super side in the Lions, especially at home.
The Highlanders will remember their touch-up against the same side in round robin, and I am picking they will be good enough to reverse that result. Though if the Waratahs rediscover their earlier season form, then all bets are off; just feel I can trust the Highlanders more.
The Chiefs look ominous and have really hit a purple patch of form, and with some big names returning this week will have no fear of travelling to Wellington with the Hurricanes’ recent slide in form. I do agree with Geoff’s summation in his weekly wrap that the Chiefs are probably the best side with their forward pack to have a real dig at the Crusaders in Christchurch and look the best bet.
Equally however I also have to look myself in the mirror and back my lads so Canes by plenty it is.
SURE THING – a weekend free of officiating controversy awaits as we enjoy the pointy end of the competition. Nah, probably not but one is free to dream.
Brett
Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Waratahs, Lions
So here’s my reasoning for four pretty obvious tips, that frankly, the others have wildly veered from.
I didn’t rate the Chiefs against the Hurricanes last week, ‘which in hindsight’ was a mistake, but regardless, last week’s showing told me that while both teams have some improvement in them, the Chiefs can make those improvements with the benefit of Damien McKenzie and Sam Cane coming back. Not by plenty, but Chiefs nonetheless.
The Saturday games look the most obvious to me. The Crusaders won’t dominate the competition to this point and them drop a game to a team they should thump; surely not. And the Waratahs were sub-par in so many ways last week that they can’t possibly be that bad again. Surely not.
Nick Phipps of the Waratahs (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
That just leaves the Lions and the Jaguares, and though the Jags played the player management cards last week to give themselves every chance of beating a top seed, the Lions have awoken from their late-season slumber just as the Jaguares had been singing themselves to sleep:
A-weema-weh, a-weema-weh, a-weema-weh, a-weema-weh…
In the jungle, the mighty jungle, the smaller cats are about to get a reminder of who is really in charge.
SURE THING: ‘Canes by plenty, I’d imagine.
Harry
Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Highlanders, Lions
The silly part of the season is over. We are in. That’s all that counts. Throw out the form book. Forget the tips that went before. This is it! Time to go on a hot streak!
Two home teams will win the quarter-finals, because:
(1) the jetlagged Sharks cannot score 32 or more points in Christchurch, mostly due to the fact their backline does not pass fast or accurately enough and their flyhalf has no confidence in the red zone or when clearing, and the ‘Saders are ruthless in this type of scenario and will score 33+ points, and
(2) the bipolar Jaguares were hexed by the June Tests, and the altitudinal Lions have the kind of institutional knowledge of knockout matches it takes to progress to the semifinals, and are led by mercurial Elton Jantjies, awesome Malcolm Marx, and high workrate forwards.
But then two away teams will win, because:
(3) the defence-lite Waratahs will stub their toe against the plucky Highlanders who will kick better, smarter, and more, and
(4) the Chiefs just look a little more cohesive and smart than the listless Hurricanes at the moment. In general, I’m tipping the better defensive teams (or in the Lions’ case, sheer experience in knockout games).
SURE THING: Goalkicking will be the most important facet this week, followed by efficiency in exits and box kicks. #Playoffs!
Get your votes in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEST.
Who have you got, Roarers? Who gets your tip for the first week of the playoffs?
Nobrain
Roar Guru
Like most things in life, you get used to it. No team from Argentina has ever won when J. Peyper was the official . I know we do not win that much but it something. In the other hand if you complain after the game they call you a sore loser. I go into the game thinking that this time is going to be different and if it is .....
Charging Rhino
Roar Guru
Yes Shop correct, if Lions win then the winner of Tahs vs Highlanders will travel to Jo'burg. Here's to a Sharks vs Lions final in Jo'burg!!! Although highly unlikely ;-)
Laurence King
Roar Rookie
My heart says Tahs, my brain says Highlanders. If the Tahs put in a similar performance to last weeks (and I think the Highlanders could make that happen) then Cheika might just be forced into a rethink about some of his players and combinations.
John R
Roar Guru
"Waratahs? ( said with rising intonation at the end)." Like this? https://youtu.be/CtiNzF30AAE?t=51 LOL
John R
Roar Guru
S--t that was pretty good Jez!
jeznez
Roar Guru
If Jags and Tahs win then Tahs host the Jags in Sydney. If the Lions win, then it is as you say.
JRVJ
Guest
Well, I write in American English, even though I try to make it as neutral as possible, since obviously you guys speak a different style of English. The problem with trying to tailor your writing to different styles of a language (and I do the same thing in Spanish as much as I can), is that you twist yourself in knots and a lot of the punch is lost……...
Brett McKay
Expert
No, that would be a liberal interpretation, Pete. I do agree, and have long agreed that SANZAAR brings a lot of this criticism upon itself, no question. The appointments this weekend absolutely reek of saving money, which is ridiculous when we've dropped from seven to four games in a weekend. I do think they've picked the best four refs, but it wouldn't have been hard to make the picture look far better than it currently looks. My objection is more about what's supposedly been included in these columns, in this case.
Brett McKay
Expert
Thanks for the condescending tip, Carlos...
Brett McKay
Expert
Jacko, I absolutely understand why it's a constant source of frustration, and I even agree that SANZAAR largely bring this scrutiny on itself, especially come finals time. But my point stands - if you're going into the game with the expectation that the refereeing will be terrible, or it will decide the game, or that a ref couldn't possibly be impartial, then you've really got nowhere to go from there. I don't know how anyone can enjoy a game from that kind of starting point.
Brett McKay
Expert
Ok, fair enough, and I expected that's what you were thinking, just thought it was an interesting way of phrasing it..
jeznez
Roar Guru
I'm not sure the Tahs fans are the biggest whingers for refs against them. We howled over the Moody Beale incident but that was a pretty shocking miss regarding foul play. Yes, some individuals tied that non-decision to the result, but otherwise I think the vast majority of us are aware of our teams imperfections and generally point to them with regards to losses. You are the second poster I've spotted in the last couple of days predicting a Tah fan cry-athon if the Tahs lose. What other incidents are making you guys think that is the reaction we'll get?
lassitude
Guest
You mean head coaches - I assume. There's also Hammett and Matson who were teammates with the other 3. When you consider there'll be one at the Blues next year as well and already one at the Reds the surely it's no contest that Robbie Deans is the most influential coach on the planet.
Riccardo
Guest
But that's the point RT. Those halcyon days. That winning tradition. Dammit...
Riccardo
Guest
In Wellington gearing up for the game against the Canes.
Jacko
Guest
Brett they make the Refs a part of the conversation by putting non neutrals in. As a Chiefs fan I do not like getting Jackson...He played for the Chiefs so it has to be controversial....Tahs game and Saders game is not neutrals either....They can do neutrals but choose not to....
AJ
Guest
Where is ALB??
Aj
Guest
As long as the tahs win the officiating will be just fine, if the Highlanders get up......
cookie
Roar Guru
Crusaders and Cheifs should certainly get up.. Jag's are a pretty good chance. Tah's are more than capable of winning but given their history of losing the unlosable, choking, not turning up etc they'll blunder it after tormenting the supporters. On the other hand they are more than capable of beating anyone so you never know what's gonna happen. If they get up over the highlanders I expect them to choke the next week as they'll go into that 'weve won it' mentailty and won't turn up the following week. If they defy the natural order of things and find themselves facing the crusaders in the final.. well then I think they lack the ruthlessness that the crusaders possess. I like most presume the Crusaders will conquer all ... I'd love to be wrong but can't see it.
Loftus
Guest
Why not comment on all the other hometown refs in the quarters?