With six rounds to go in the 2018 NRL season, the Telstra Premiership is well and truly up for grabs.
A meagre four points separates first place from eighth spot on the ladder, which means that every single game remaining on the schedule for those teams has immense importance. The run into the finals will see teams jockeying for optimal positions for the first weekend of the finals, along with looking to gain a mental edge over opponents by inflicting doubt-inducing losses before the business end of the season.
So who will actually win the premiership from those eight teams?
Well, we should call ‘time off’ for a second first, because it may even be a little presumptuous to only look at the clubs currently in the top eight.
Though many proclaim the teams for the finals series to have been locked in weeks ago, the Wests Tigers brilliant play has ensured they are more than just a mathematical chance of making the eight. The Tigers have serious momentum, having knocked over premiership heavyweights, the Rabbitohs and Dragons, in successive weeks.
The mid-season additions of Moses Mbye and Robbie Farah have shored up two positions Wests were weak in, providing the team with a significant boost. Ivan Cleary has proven himself to be an excellent coach, and the Tigers will be a tough out should they happen to squeeze into the finals series.
However, I think they’re only that: a potentially tough ‘out’, rather than a realistic chance to go all the way. I can’t see them hoisting the trophy at season’s end.
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At this point, I know Canberra fans are dying for me to say they can still make the finals too, but sorry, they can’t. Nor do they deserve to. Even allowing for some – ahem – ‘unfortunate’ decisions against them last Friday night, Canberra have thrown away too many games this year, and are not worthy finals participants. Save your vitriol, Raiders fans – painfully, you know I’m right.
However, that still leaves us with six quality teams duking it out for the premiership. Eight, if you want to count the Broncos and Warriors.
Spoiler alert: I don’t.
I just think both of those teams are too inconsistent to be true competition contenders.
If it feels like we’ve been saying that about the Warriors since Wayne Bennett was a little boy, it’s because we have. Like an annoying shower head, New Zealand have run hot and cold all year, in-line with their long-held franchise reputation.
They’ve played some truly incredibly football, and some truly incredibly dumb football. That Jekyll and Hyde personality is rarely the recipe for premiership success, as you need to win three or four games in a row against good – and smart – opposition to win the premiership. I’m not sure the Warriors have that in them.
Meanwhile, the Broncos lack the elite-level halves – or even ‘half’ – required to win a grand final. Keeping with the inconsistency theme, five-eighth Anthony Milford wouldn’t look out of place in a Warriors jersey, such is his ability to dominate or disappear. He’s also been far more of the latter this season, anyway. To make matters worse, Brisbane have tried a number of options at halfback this year, with no one being consistently convincing.
That leaves the Panthers, Sharks, Roosters, Rabbitohs, Dragons and Storm. It’s a brave prognosticator that super confidently picks any team from that bunch.
The Panthers have battled injuries and representative duties, both of which have tested their depth, yet still find themselves within striking distance of the minor premiership. With a good mix of experience and youth, and size and speed, you’d be crazy to think Penrith aren’t a real chance of winning their first premiership since 2003.
Viliame Kikau of the Panthers (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images).
The Sharks are just two seasons removed from their first ever competition win, and have talent right across the park. Five-eighth Matt Moylan struggled early in the year, and it looked like the half swap with James Maloney was highway robbery by the Panthers, however Moylan has been sensational of late.
Some people have been calling Cronulla an underdog, which I think is ridiculous – they’re as good as any team in the comp.
The Roosters were my pre-season pick for the premiership, but they had some bumpy moments to start the season, and I worried if maybe I’d got a little over-excited by the signings of Cooper Cronk and James Tedesco.
Truth be told, I did, but more than that, I forgot that it takes a little time to adjust to having a new halfback and fullback. Now 19 rounds into the season, the Chooks are starting to look much more cohesive, and very dangerous. Just ask Manly…
Before the Bunnies lost to the Tigers, they’d rattled off nine wins in a row, and had looked very impressive in most of them. They’d also won in a number of different ways: ugly, tough, explosive, clinical, blowing teams away, etc.
Apart from talent and experience, perhaps the biggest weapon Souths have is their coach. Rookie Anthony Seibold has been a revelation, having his team well prepared each week, and perhaps most crucially, enjoying their football. It’s a great combination.
The Dragons have relied on an impressive forward pack, talented halves, and reliable backs, to be placed atop of the ladder for the entirety of the season thus far. They were in very few people’s top four at the start of the season, but as a Bulldogs fan, I knew all too well that James Graham’s leadership and winning moxie would be invaluable, and ensure they were a force this season.
I still have question marks over their ability to execute when placed under extreme pressure, but they simply may not let teams put them under any.
James Graham of the St George Illawarra Dragons. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Lastly, we have the defending premiers and ladder leaders, the Storm. Other teams are talented, but Melbourne have representative players throughout the roster, and two of the game’s all-time greats at hooker and fullback.
They’ve also got a fairly handy coach at the helm. The Storm are rightfully rated the favourites to win the competition, but it is worth pointing out that the NRL has never had back-to-back premiers, such is the difficulty in backing up from winning the year before. Can the Storm be the first NRL team to be repeat winners? I can’t see why not.
If you put a gun to my head and asked me to pick one, I’d find it very hard to bet against Melbourne. However, hopefully you don’t have a gun, and considering they’re the favourites, a Storm selection is also a tad boring. So I’ll pick . . .
. . . the Bunnies.
Larry1950
Guest
Watching the Broncos last night I got the impression they need to rest McCullough for 15 minutes a game and that throws out their forward rotation. If I had them, I'd consider Kotoni Staggs as the backup hooker because he's got that toughness & speed to do some damage from dummy half but not sure of his passing game. The big in would be Gillett but a bit much to expect him to hit origin form in three or four games at the most. My theory on the Darius Boyd switch is that he just can't stretch out any more & a fullback needs to do that.
Larry1950
Guest
All very well giving potential as a reason why a team can win the premiership but I'd suggest you rate Penrith far to highly on your radar. Broncos seem to me a year off at least but they put 50 on a team you put in the list of possible winners? Good teams are working out Maloney & he doesn't have the steadying influence of a few NSW mates to carry him for tackling, plus they've got a predictable coach. The dragons & warriors can almost be guaranteed to have a wobble soon with possible disastrous results. If Ben Hunt is the answer for the dragons, I wonder what the question was? Melbourne have won a few by slim margins this year whereas last season they would have put those teams away easily so they're susceptible at the least. I had the Sharks as my pick but they looked to rely on Holmes too much in the bronco loss & the raiders were better than them last week. Not sure the roosters are there yet either & the Rabbitohs have a few question marks over their personnel too. Most open premiership for years, probably will depend on the refs and bunker in the end if season results are any guide.
Adz Sportz
Roar Guru
The NRL Premiership is headed to... whoever can beat the Storm.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Joe, You have jumped off your Storm bandwagon? We all have our top 4 and top 8, but the Grand Final winner will come down to who can field their best 17 without injuries and suspensions. There is a very good reason that no team has not won outside the top three under this system. The Final 4 will likely be impacted by recent or soon to come INS for the Finals. • Souths –Inglis • Storm – Kasiano, B. Smith • Sharks – Dugan (Moylan and Woods has been a revelation) • Broncos – Gillett, Bird • Roosters – Napa • Panthers – Campbell-Gillard I have the Storm, Dragons and Souths all finishing on 38 points, and history says the winner will come from them. Don’t give up Joe.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
And you'd say Kodi Nikorima has been "consistently convincing", or an "elite-level half"?
Jara W
Guest
I’d say it 100% does. They experimented with Jack Bird for three rounds. With Nikorima coming off the bench mind you. Without going to the trouble of looking into it I’d say they may be the most consistently selected halves pairing this year.
Joe
Roar Rookie
I don't think the Dragons should be counted as they had almost half their starting team missing to Origin when they had 50 put on them. If any of the teams can break that curse this year its the Dragons.
Joe
Roar Rookie
From your last six of Panthers, Sharks, Roosters, Rabbitohs, Dragons and Storm I think the Storm and Panthers are still struggling to get a cohesive spine together. Panthers have hooker/fullback issues and Storm halfback issues. From the remaining the Roosters have the best spine and then Rabbits and Dragons about the same. However I think the Sharks have the best forwards. I think it will come from these four but without a gun to my head I'll say Roosters. Their only weakness was their forwards and with Taukiao and JWH finding some great form and with the likes of Mitchell, Ferguson, Tupou, Tedesco in the backs they just have too much strike power. Cronk and Tupou in particular are starting to get those kick tries that Vunivalu and Cronk used to have last year. I think their main threat will be the Sharks who can strangle a team and who have a forward pack that can dominate a game. Very much looking forward to the Roosters v Dragons game this weekend as that will be the perfect gauge of their run into September. The Dragons pre-Origin was the best team playing so they will definitely be up to matching it with the Roosters who are finally delivering on pre-season hype.
3_Hats SSTID 2014
Roar Rookie
It is a good summation on my Rabbitohs by Ryan, the Rabbitohs have won every which way they can! ugly, tough, explosive, clinical, blowing teams away, etc. is a good explanation indeed. My Rabbitohs are definitely not a laid down bizarre either... I suppose my Rabbitohs have won some close games of late. The Tigers game, we were just flat mentally most likely due to the overexposed media concerning 300. Rd 6 Rorts, Rd 10 Drags, Rd 12 Warriors and Rd 13 Sharks wins look like a lifetime away. Eels this week before the Storm, Rorts at ANZ and the Broncs at Suncorp all back to back to back will be defining! We will chat about the Rabbitohs chances in a Months time. We may know something by then. Just a footnote: Whatever happens for the rest of the season my Rabbitohs have been a thousand per cent better then what every other opposition fan has given us credit for or expected of us during the preseason! 12th to the Top 4 is certainly unbelievable! Sane Richardson's original plan was to be a Top 4 team in 2019 so in effect, we are a full year in advance of where we expected to be! I think the Storm is definitely the team to beat. Will they defy History? That is the Question!
Caractacus
Guest
I really hope Souths loss to the Tigers was a blip but they probably should have lost one of the games against the Cowboys or the one against the Titans, it's good to win ugly but not every week. I think if they're going to be genuine contenders they'll need to win a couple of the games coming up against the Storm, Roosters and Broncos. The Roosters game will be telling as they're playing much better than the first time they played against the Bunnies this season when they got smashed up front but the twins were on fire at that time...... I don't think they are now.
Forty Twenty
Guest
History is against the Dragons , Panthers and Warriors based on the 50 point curse but the Storm have the back to back curse to contend with. Has anyone got close in recent years to going back to back?
Forty Twenty
Guest
History is against the Dragons , Panthers and Warriors based on the 50 point curse but the Storm have the back to back curse to contend with. Has anyone got close in recent years to going back to back?
steveng
Roar Rookie
That may be true Nat??? But the way that things are panning out, they reckon that Wayne Bennett won't coach the Broncos in 2019 and Seibold has only got this in a contract with the Bunnies, which might entice Seibold to take the Broncos offer as coach. The Broncos are offering big money and I don't think that the Bunnies have anywhere near that much to counter and offer and/or keep Seibold. anyway, lets see what happens but, its not looking good for the Bunnies if the Broncos are after Seibold.
Ja ja klazo
Guest
I would have agreed on Easts forward pack at the start of the year but in recent weeks they have really started to fire up. Most impressive has been JWH, who is starting to get that menace back. SST is looking fit and bending the line back whilst Cordner just does Cordner things, how tough is this bloke? Some of the fringe guys like Butcher are starting to step up as well. Got to love Radley as well, gee he can hit for a little fella - absolute mongrel. If Napa can manage to string a couple of good games together for the first time in his career I actually rate their pack as one of the best - scary thought when you look at the quality in the backs.
Dodgy Dragons
Roar Rookie
I think it will come down to the refereeing styles. If it is like it has been since the crackdown was woundback, it’ll be the storm, roosters or sharks. My money would be on the storm, with their spoiling techniques in defence and Smith orchestrating their game. If it is refereed like the beginning of the year, that brings the dragons, panthers, rabbitohs and warriors back into calculations with these teams open style of attack able to play footy and whichever team has the confidence running high in September will go on a roll. Whatever the way it goes I just hope it isn’t butchered by the guys in yellow or the bunker with dud calls and some consistency whatever way they go for both teams in the contest. I don’t want to see the finals ruined by the clowns in the middle!!!!
Nat
Roar Guru
If it happens, it won't be until 2020 at least. I don't think the Siebold thing matters that much by then but the age of Burgi bros, Sutton and Inglis that will need to be suceeded. Even Reynolds will be 30 by then. This year coach has the benefit of pace and power across the park so he's just letting them play to their strengths. It's a small window for the Bunnies but a good one.
Nat
Roar Guru
Very true Matt. Not only bringing Melbourne back to the pack but Cronk as well. Not having a dominant pack and Smith/Slater inside and out gives him far less time than he's used too. While Smith has had to play at first receiver quite a bit to cover for Cronk's vision. Mostly the most consistent pack will give the halves the best opportunity.
Mushi
Guest
Most clubs these days have people paid to dismiss those doubts. I've met a few and their techniques stopped me burning out. I think the narrative is also a bit of "we weren't wrong saying he was overvalued on that contract....even though we were"
steveng
Roar Rookie
It all comes together and makes sense now for the Rabbits, who are going pretty well but, hearing that the Broncos are after Seibold, which could have some sort of an impact on how they will be going for the rest of this year! It was a big shock to me that Seibold is being perused by the Broncos (but its not a surprise, as he's a Qld'er and has had affiliation with them) and that is not good news for the Bunnies!!! He will probably be using the Bunnies as a stepping stone to the top job at the Broncos, which will be at the end of this year and he will most likely go there and leave the Bunnies. The Bunnies didn't look good against the Tigers (they looked terrible) and things don't look good for the finals if they continue this way that they did against the Tigers! Lets see what happens but, this coaching rumors and how Seibold is a Qld is not what we want at the Bunnies as 'once a Qld'er always a Qld'er' and he will jump ship when and if the Broncs want him'!!! Not looking good and its very dissapointing!!!
Boydy-In-Brisbane
Guest
According to the well-worn statistic, both Saints and Penrith can't win, as they've had 50 points put on them in a game this year.