When it comes to setting expectations for your fan-base, the ‘go to’ chapter in the coaching playbook these days is the one centred on it being ‘better to aim low and achieve, than to aim high and fall short’.
It’s rare for a coach to come out and make any meaningful declarations and vague answers will always prevail when pushed by the media.
From a coaching perspective it’s the job-secure play – it buys time, hints at some kind of expert planning capability and when expectations are exceeded it provides meaningful contractual or market currency.
The narrative surrounding North Melbourne during pre-season was about how much of a lock they were for bottom four – I picked them for the spoon.
At their season launch, coach Brad Scott made a number of crafted remarks around “careful planning”, “looking to 2019 and 2020” and the rebuild-stoking “there will be some tough times ahead, make no mistake about that”.
The narrative was bottom-up build and the outcome has been a significant overachievement from that mark – 11 wins and nearly a finals appearance. What a year!
On face value, these results would imply a wave of optimism from the fans, something to be celebrated. When everyone picked you for the spoon (except Robert Walls, but that’s another story in itself right?), the wins have been against the odds.
But dive a little deeper, and it’s a major farce. The reality is, North have failed dismally on all counts in 2018.
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Put simply, the Kangaroos have stunk at stinking. It’s a unique capability, almost admirable in a ‘Shinboner spirit’ kind of way – but the decisions they have made so far this season have undermined the rebuild at every turn.
Why achieve mid-table obscurity with a group of players that have never shown themselves capable of legitimately challenging for a flag? Why spruik a narrative of rebuild and continue to hand games to 32-year-old Scott Thompson or 28-year-old Sam Wright? Great club servants, but not part of the future premiership window.
This isn’t a pro-tanking piece by the way, it’s a ‘play the kids’ piece.
Shaun Higgins has had the season of his life, but when it isn’t part of a multi-year drive towards a top-four challenge, then unfortunately it almost feels wasted.
Ben Cunnington winning hardball-gets is fool’s gold. It looks good on the surface when covered in dirt and grime, but when it squeezes out the next young mid coming through, it’s largely worthless.
Thompson and 29-year-old Robbie Tarrant have held the defence together with aplomb for a decade, but this was the year to hand the reins over to the key-position players coming through – Sam Durdin was a first round pick in 2014, Daniel Nielsen pick 25 in the same draft. They have played 15 games between them, and only one (Durdin) in 2018. They have played a combined 27 in the VFL this year. The key players of the future are presently being locked out by those of the past.
Paul Ahern has played one breakout game and is a great story, but his ten games in 2018 took him past any of the three players North actually selected in his draft year (Durdin, Nielsen and Ed Vickers-Willis), and he has had two knee reconstructions in that time. For all the Roos paid unders for Ahern, apart from the fact EV-W has the best name in the comp, their return on investment has been pitiful on their actual picks.
Paul Ahern (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Mitch Hibberd, Declan Watson and Josh Williams were picks in the 30s in 2015. “Who?” you might ask and rightfully so. They have played six games between them in nearly three full seasons on the list. At full forward, Ben Brown is a huge part of the future. His potential tall counterpart up forward in Nick Larkey leads the VFL in goal-kicking, while the never-great and oft-injured Jarrad Waite holds him out.
It might be that these first and second round picks are simply not up for AFL standard, but how will anyone ever know this without a decent run in the seniors, and not five seasons in when they should be in their prime? It’s little wonder the likes of Sydney, Geelong and Hawthorn have such sustained success – they fold the kids in at the right time, throw them into the big time and let them learn on their feet.
North have been similarly farcical in the free agent stakes. Small market teams on the rebuild have little appeal in free agency, which NBA teams learnt decades ago. The best chance they have is landing future superstars in the draft.
For all the war-chest narrative, all the Kangaroos have achieved in publicly chasing Josh Kelly, Dustin Martin and Jordan de Goey is an external notion of buyer beware – and, to quote Police Chief Brady from Super Troopers, “Desperation is a stinky cologne.” That stench might now come in the form of overpaying Jared Polec. Perhaps finding a way to move up the draft order would be a better approach.
There has been some successes. The pick 15 given up for Jed Anderson doesn’t look quite so bad after a decent run of games, albeit the dodgy hammy concerns will take some time to shed. Jy Simpkin’s first name lacks something, but getting another 20 games into him in 2018 has been important. Will Walker and Luke Davies-Uniake have been eased into it.
But the youth movement has simply not come as promised this year, and the major risk is a generation gap that takes a decade to overcome – see St Kilda and Carlton as cases in point. Both clubs missed out in multiple drafts in a row, and when the age-profile plot is a double-humped camel, you can’t compete with a racehorse.
The reality is that in 2018, North Melbourne played a hand Homer Simpson would be proud of in terms of setting expectations of a poor performance and careful rebuild. But even Homer would struggle to undermine his own narrative in a bumbling mess of middle-aged-driven mediocrity as North have achieved.
Jai Thomas
Roar Rookie
Doubt it, but like I said in the article, I certainly expected them to finish there. They have over performed expectations significantly, which in my opinion is based on getting the best out of mediocre players coming to the end of their career, and doesn't take the club forwards despite the wins.
Nikelnuts
Guest
Is this the same guy who told us before game 1 to put the house on North for the spoon? Great judge!
Pope Paul VII
Guest
UDL has done some good things but has also struggled a bit but that is not unusual. The rising star is a bit of mickey mouse award, although I'm jealous North don't get enough noms. Did anyone get nominated last year? Simpkin? Anyway it's a near run thing. Cliffhanger wins over Syd, WB, who then returned the compliment. Commanding wins over WC, Haw, GWS. The cyclone lottery loss to the Mould Coast. While there's life there is hope.
reuster75
Guest
Melbourne bottoming out hasn't worked for them at all because they now have no culture of having the bare minimum of success (making finals) over the last 12 years and this has shown itself this season. Whenever they've had a chance to really claim a 'big name' scalp they've botched it (Sydney last week, 2 x Cats, belted by Pies & Hawks). St Kilda didn't win a flag under Lyon and when he left they threw the baby out with the bathwater and are now devoid of talent. What North are doing reminds me of Geelong in early years under Mark Thompson - playing the kids but leaving enough seasoned pro's in the side to ensure they kids don't get thrown to the wolves. If North keep on this trajectory it increases their chanced of landing a free agent in the years to come (Josh Kelly is out of contract again within next 2 years I believe). If not at least their building through the draft started from a relative position of strength compared to Carlton or Melbourne.
User
Roar Rookie
Off season is along time ago and that pov was shaded by wce strategy last trade/draft, as I am open in fact he has been my favourite player since his debut it wasn't a case of I wanted him to go, could still be gone but as the season unfolded I became more inclined to him staying, If that is the case I would prefer the decision not be coloured by a sense of owing as that isn't beneficial for his career ultimately.
User
Roar Rookie
The Sandi rumour stemmed from the Australian, won't happen, if he does retire(doubt it), he will be freos ruck coach if anything.
Cat
Roar Guru
You were absolutely convinced all off season he was gone ...
Roo Believer
Guest
I agree with the sentiment that the club need to get more games in the the younger players currently playing in the reserves, particularly as they have made a point of stating this and using this as the basis to de-list Harvey and Co a few years back. I also agree this should be a balanced approach and not just a case dropping or delisting guys based purely age but on a range of factors particularly performance. In my opinion, there's currently a talent depth issue at North and when we have injuries to key players or players down in form, some other regulars in the side aren't good enough to fill the breach. There are at least half a dozen players (ie Turner, Clarke, McDonald, Simpkin, Atley and Hrovat - all though he was dropped last week) who aren't currently playing well enough to retain their spots if form players came in. My personal view is that a big factor to more reserve players getting a game is Brad Scott's reluctance to play untried players and stick with a settled group. To paraphrase I think one of the comments he made when he delisted Harvey, Petrie, Dal Santo and Firrito was something along the lines of 'if those players are fit and available I will pick them.' So by delisting these players there is no emotional conflict of not picking them each week even if form tapers off. Scott in most cases seems only inclined to bring in a new player if an injury forces a change. Something of a damning stat that highlights north has a fair way to go in developing young talent, North is 1 of only 3 teams that hasn't had a rising star nomination this year. Luke Davies-Uniacke the only top 6 drafted player other than Brayshaw from Fremantle that hasn't been nominated. Perhaps symptomatic of the lack of opportunities for young and reserve players vying for a spot.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
That Strnadica rumour actually surfaced outside of those channels you mention. It could possibly be that any ruckman's agent is not doing their job if they don't link them to the WC to add a bit of fomo to contract talks.
User
Roar Rookie
I don't think he owes wce, I just believe he'll stay. If he stayed on because he feels there is a debt he must pay he isn't there for right reasons.
Don Freo
Guest
That's the nature of sports reporting over here. With Hardie and Hagdorn frozen out of Freo, Gossage so Eagles myopic and balanced commentators like Langdon, Hasleby and Bell not interested in giving oxygen to gossip, we only get one kind of report...opinion and guesses fed by bias.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
That's funny, that'd be one of the longest of long shots of ever happening. The WC ruck spot has become a bit of a lightning rod for the rumour storm over here. There's also been some scuttlebutt on the WC courting Freo's rookie ruck/fwd, Luke Strnadica.
Don Freo
Guest
Only news speculation about who Eagles could get. Sandi and Freo are synonyms. Sandi could play until he is 40yo. Once he finishes playing, he will be guiding Sean Darcy's game...and Meek, Jones and Stnadica. There is a ruckman WC should snap up and, if they don't, someone else should. Zac Clarke's knee has allowed him to play a whole season with the undefeated Subiaco and he has been dominating.
PeteB
Guest
This is laughable. For fark sake stop whinging and count your lucky stars you are not a Carlton or Saints supporter.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Speaking of the future Don your thoughts on WCE launching a bid for Sandilands? https://www.zerohanger.com/reports-major-rival-set-to-launch-shock-bid-at-sandilands-22820/
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
FWIW 6 x 6, I think Gaff owes WCE and should stay.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
This idea that somone who is not part of the future should not be part of the present is just silly. If Thompson and Wright are part of the best 22, you pick them. By your reckoning, Jai, the players of the future at present will be the players of the past when the future becomes the present. Older players guide younger players. They engage and hold game plans. The future is shaped by the present. Every team needs experience.
User
Roar Rookie
Also at wce gaff is still a few rungs lower than say NIC, jk, Shuey etc, at North he takes on the pressure of improving the side and probably be paid higher to take on larger media responsibility, again something wce can shield him from
User
Roar Rookie
GCS, Syd, GWS, Brisbane come to mind. Love the Terry Wallace slant to this theory but I doubt gaff will avoid anything in football states and if he remains here there will be less of a circus here than in Melbourne, Perth people do actually let footy players live uninterrupted lives not the hulla buloo that Victorian media love to peddle.
Jai Thomas
Roar Rookie
Not basing it on one week, but since you mentioned the bulldogs. They have most of the ingredients for a sustained premiership tilt, whilst North are building their future around who exactly?