The three days before Bledisloe one each year are an interesting case study in Australian rugby.
Typically, fans, coaches and journalists spend these days searching for strange, superstitious clues about how to beat the All Blacks, and of course, why this is ‘the year’.
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Conspiracy-tier analysis is brought up about how we won the last game, or how the All Blacks are tired from the Super Rugby finals, usually circulated to bemused audiences.
The reality of course is that this is not the year. A simple check of the odds, and team line-ups confirms it. Let’s compare the two teams for a moment.
The front row – Tom Robertson, Tatafu Polota-Nau and Sekope Kepu line-up against Joe Moody, Codie Taylor and Owen Franks. It’s a roughly even match up but you’d back the All Blacks.
The second row – Izack Rodda and Adam Coleman are a rising stock but don’t match the might of the world’s pre-eminent second row combination, Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock.
Arguably, the back row is the only area the Wallabies match – or even pip – their New Zealand counterparts. And even then, the quality of the individual players is offset by the lineout dangers of playing the pooper.
In terms of set piece, New Zealand’s lineout is far and away superior to Australia, particularly with the Pooper. The scrum will be interesting, but the Wallabies lose their chance to dominate with the absence of Scott Sio.
David Pocock and Mike Hooper (AP Photo/Matt Dunham)
In the backs, Australia has plenty of class, but New Zealand has more. The Wallabies may at times match the firepower of the mighty All Black backline, but confidence and a better defensive line-up, particularly with talisman Ryan Crotty in the centres will lead to another New Zealand victory.
Looking across the park, there is no weakness that Australia can conceivably exploit. Compare that with New Zealand, who will pull the Pooper’s lineout to pieces, as well as target inexperienced centre defences, and it’s easy to see an All Black victory.
In days gone by there have been conceivable weaknesses in the All Black line-up. Leon McDonald couldn’t defend against Stirling Mortlock – and the All Black backline had a leaky defence. Their lineout used to falter. These weaknesses have long since disappeared entirely.
The All Blacks are a complete rugby team.
Make no mistake, do not dare to dream, Australia will sink tonight. It might not be the blow out of years gone by, with the Wallabies desperate to salvage pride for the game as it crumbles around them. But All Black class will simply be too much for this rising Wallaby side.
Colvin Brown
Guest
Well, may not be the reason but it would be better for Aus rugby all round if Cheik moved on.
Cliff Bishkek
Roar Rookie
Genia, a possibility but not now at this time of his career. When he was rated as one of the best in the World, if not the best, yes. IMO, the two AB No. 9s are better. As you say TPN - long bow. Against Cody Taylor and Coles, no.
Cliff Bishkek
Roar Rookie
Big ask PK, big statement that Folau is a better winger than the AB wingers, maybe equal and he would have to fight for his place. Kepu yes but the Tongan Thor, not yet. Coleman, no. There are better AB locks - Barratt for one. Merged team if Aussies have to be picked. Straight NZ Team, I think you are pulling a long bow.
Mielie
Guest
It depends which team is playing for money, and which team is playing for the love of Rugby. Attitude
Cedric Petersen
Guest
It depends on which team is playing for money, and which team is playing for the love of Rugby. Attitude.
Fionn
Guest
I'd have Genia and maybe Polota-Nau on the bench too. If Coles was fit obviously Polota-Nau wouldn't make the bench.
RAF
Guest
"The All Blacks are a complete rugby team".......you're a genius!!!!
timber
Guest
In what world are the scrums even? Even if Sio were playing. The ABs dominated the Wallabies scrum last year. The Foley try in Dunedin came from the ABs destroying the Wallaby scrum and inadvertently opening a gap for Genia to run through.
zhenry
Guest
Pocock has not usually troubled the ABs; he plays as a 7, Tui the 6, and Hooper the link to backs No8. If ABs can minimize Pocock then all is well, however Pocock has been with Deans in Japan and no doubt the ‘failed AB coach’ and his relationship with Pocock have devised some plays. I use ‘failed’ in a very narrow meaning of the word, as I can imagine many AB fans on here being affronted by the above phrase.
PeterK
Roar Guru
no issue re feeling that the AB's will win and the wallabies have little chance, I agree. The issue I have is one of expressing perfection in the AB's is a bit too far.
PeterK
Roar Guru
The author is correct that the AB's are the better team, that they are odds on favourites to win. The issue is the statement that there are zero weaknesses. In other words the AB's are perfect and each player is perfect. This is clearly not true. FYIW - I would have Pocock , Folau (on the wing), Kepu, Tupou (bench), Hooper (bench) , Coleman (bench) all make a merged team.
Cliff Bishkek
Roar Rookie
Stu, I and many on the Roar have been saying this since after his first 12 months. Useless is the Clown. Also RA and all Rugby Admins at all levels not on the same page of Rugby Development in Aus. As to the sheep, depends on who has the best looking sheep!! and really, it has been a NZ and Aus back and forth hit at each other for many, many years and I am 70 years old. Comes with the banter between Kiwis and Aussies. But some does go over the top.
Cliff Bishkek
Roar Rookie
Robertson: Doubts in terms of "folding chair" Lineouts: We are weaker Restarts: Folau is a liability if he gets it wrong. Rucks and Mauls: Pocock will win some if he is protected - others step up. Hooper will be moved on most rucks like a "rag-doll". Centres: Hodge, a weakness - Beale - tackling (improved but still swings) Fullback: Folau is not the full package DHP: Defence and not as strong on the highball Korribette: Defence can be out of position. On SR form the Crusader centres leave the Wallabies dead. Retallick and Whitelock are the best in the World. Wallaby locks - up and coming but need to grow and improve. The article is correct!
Rob
Guest
I think the ABs would be mildly better if they had Pocock at 7 and Izzy at 15 (and Mo'unga at 10). Maybe Beale on the bench. Still Aus has a chance tonight. Would need some luck.
Cliff Bishkek
Roar Rookie
Peter, I think you are going low on that call. As an Aussie and the Wallabies were on top for the last 16 Bledisloes, I know I would be crowing. The facts are these, not one Wallaby player would make the ABs except Pocock. Hooper may get a bench shot (where he should be in the Wallabies), but I doubt he would be on the ABs bench, maybe Folau on the bench, but for me too many weaknesses. The ABs have better players who can fill a number of positions for that bench position of Folau's. Do I like the crowing? no, I am an Aussie. Do I blame them no unless it is rude and insulting - and I would be against Aussie crowing being rude and insulting. And as I said yesterday on a thread, until we fix our structures and pathways and get the RA and State Admins and Club Comp Admins and SR Franchises all on the same page with the development of Aus Rugby, then we are going nowhere. So the Kiwis have a lot of time ahead to be crowing. Actually when you compare the individual players, there is not any very defined weaknesses in the ABs at all and they come up better than the Wallabies. In broken play, maybe Beale and Folau offer an advantage but then Ben smith is a great broken play runner. e With the Pooper and no recognised No. 8. Even though Timu needs to improve - as do all of our Wallaby players - I would have him at No. 8 - or an up and comer - blood him. Pocock at 7, Hooper on the bench and Tui at No. 6. If not Timu blood an up and comer who offers lineout potential as well. Folau on the wing. Banks at FB. Still dubious on Robertson!! So for me, and as an Aussie, do not like saying it - but the Author is correct.
Rob
Guest
Yep. "Traditional 8" etc just isn't a thing anymore. You need the best players on the park who can gel to perform the collective job. Will our scrum get hammered: unlikely Will our lineout get hammered: maybe, NZ are the best in the world, but the Pooper wasn't a problem against the Irish who are 2nd best Restarts: they have Read, we have Izzy Rucks and maul: pretty even, we have Pocock for steals, but all 8 NZers are absolute pros. It is really whether the other 6 men in gold can match the commitment that both Hooper and Pocock bring.
Jacko
Guest
If they lose it will be a .............."massive failure and a humongous choke". Was "UPSET" the word you were looking for Drongo?
Jacko
Guest
Its not their preferred midfield tho...SBW is out injured and he is the preferred 12
Drongo
Guest
The article is spot on. The ABs are a far superior team, no doubt whatsoever and are huge favourites to win. If they lose it will be a massive failure and a humongous choke. But, they won’t.
Dave_S
Roar Rookie
No one plays just one role though. So the 8 v 8 etc comparison is illusory. The only relevant comparison is BR combo v BR combo. I’m calling it about even, on that score.