Conventional wisdom says you need to be a top four team to win a premiership, but there’s one team out there no one wants to be playing come finals time.
With all the focus on Souths’ resurgence, Penrith’s early promise and the big signings at the Roosters, the Sharks have settled themselves almost unnoticed on the fringes of the double chance.
Since the ‘NRL era’ commenced in 1998, most finals series have been played under the random number generator that was the McIntyre finals system. This didn’t give the top four the double chance but introduced us to highest ranking losers, lowest ranking winners, a mess of scheduling, and random eliminations based on other teams’ results.
Under that system we saw freak runs like Parramatta (eighth) in 2009 and the Warriors (sixth) in 2011, both ending at the grand final.
That finals system isn’t lamented and it still amazes me the NRL kept it for so long, but that’s another story.
The system we have now has worked since 2012 and in that time, two teams have made the grand final from outside the top four: North Queensland (eighth) last year and Canterbury (seventh) in 2014. It’s a cleaner, easier series designed to give the top four every chance at success.
Cronulla are on 30 points with two games left, equal with Penrith and St George and one game behind the Rabbitohs, Storm and the Roosters.
It’s fair enough to say that with two games left, the top three positions will be taken by Souths, Melbourne and the Roosters. These three have at least one winnable game in the next fortnight which will see them right.
Even as Penrith self-destructed, I thought the Panthers would lock away fourth spot but their loss to the Knights makes it tough with the Warriors and the Storm to finish.
Which leaves St George Illawarra, on a familiar slide until handling Wests Tigers last week to cling to fourth by their fingernails.
A quirk of the draw sees Cronulla and St George playing the same teams to finish the year – Newcastle and Canterbury, no easybeats by any means.
The Dragons only lead the Sharks by 17 points on for and against. It won’t take much to catch them, but then again it doesn’t really matter.
Momentum, experience and luck are all starting to turn Cronulla’s way (and let’s not forget that positions five and six get a home final in week one).
The Sharks have proven finals experience, that grinding, low-scoring, close-finishing style. They’ve got the fourth best defence, a key feature as we approach the business end.
Their ability to slow the ruck helps them with this grind. The Sharks sometimes dodge the coverage when it comes to highlighting the wrestle, but they’re as masterful as the Storm and Roosters at what Melbourne centre Curtis Scott calls ‘tackle tech’.
Andrew Fifita of the Sharks (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
They have the knack of dragging teams into the alleyway for a brawl, whether they want to fight or not. They revel in the scrap, with seven wins from 12 games decided by less than a converted try this year. What the Raiders would give to have that record.
Nine members of the 2016 premiership’s starting 17 took the field last week and it’s not a stretch to say this year’s squad is even stronger than the 2016 one.
Coach Shane Flanagan has been able to add quality in the halves, with Matt Moylan starting to show the class for which he was brought over from Penrith. Moylan is third in the NRL for line break assists, a stat that would surprise many after he hardly set the world on fire early on.
A lot of Moylan and halfback Chad Townsend’s work is being finished by fullback Valentine Holmes, one of the NRL’s most exciting players. The game’s top try scorer, he runs the ball back hard, can dance through any defence and his finishing speaks for itself.
A lot of players get christened ‘gamebreakers’ these days, but it’s a title Holmes has earned.
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Then there’s the always enigmatic Andrew Fifita, loathed and loved in equal measure by people in and out of the Shire (and in and out of the club’s coaches box).
Much was made of Fifita’s expletive-riddled post-try theatrics last week against North Queensland and plenty around the NRL are still trying to blow it up into something meaningful, but it wasn’t too exciting.
If anything, that reaction shows that Flanagan and his crew know exactly which buttons to push to get their main man firing.
He’s the most penalised player in the NRL this season but he’s also the most damaging if he is sent in the right direction. It might not reflect all that well on Fifita that he’s so transparently easy to rile up, but whatever works, works.
It’s also worth noting that Cronulla are fresher than they have been at this point for quite some time – Aaron Woods, Josh Dugan, Wade Graham, Moylan and Fifita didn’t play through a gruelling Origin series, although Dugan and Graham have missed long periods with injury (again).
Woods has been exactly what Flanagan wanted as a mid-year arrival. Much maligned but quietly effective, Woods has only missed four tackles since pulling on a Sharks jersey. He’s gaining big metres and is still good for the occasional offload. He’s a perfect fit in the front row.
Valentine Holmes of the Sharks. (Photo by Tony Feder/Getty Images)
Jayden Brailey continues to steadily build his career, splitting the hooker role with James Segeyaro. Brailey may not be the full 80-minute number nine yet, but he’s shown that he has no problems mixing it with the best.
Winning the premiership is all about knowing how to handle yourself at the business end of a long and arduous season and Cronulla have plenty of old heads who can keep the club on track: the likes of Paul Gallen, Matt Prior and especially second rower Luke Lewis, on his last hurrah before retiring.
Lewis is a much-loved clubman and player and there’s no doubt his teammates want to send him out on top. If that’s not motivation above and beyond the usual, then I don’t know what is.
With my beloved Raiders working on their fitness during September, I’ve got the Sharks as my favourite to win their second premiership in three years. And their ladder position in two weeks’ time won’t matter.
Ray Paks
Roar Rookie
Agree with you Mordac! The last thing the Dragons need is someone that doesn't know when the appropriate time is to pass or kick and especially one that has a poor haircut that inexplicably is the thing that seems to have caused the slide in form when it came about. I think Kurt Mann on numerous occasions has played well at 5/8
AGO74
Guest
Lucky? Are you Phil Gould in disguise? They beat Canberra in Canberra without Gallen and graham. They smashed the cowboys (up by 30 at one point - a few late soft tries to make score respectable for the cows). They beat the storm in an almighty arm wrestle which they probably just shaded overall (they completely dominated Melbourne in first half but didn’t have score to reflect it). So yeah, heaps lucky....
Kenw
Guest
OK then, I definitely seem to be out on my own here! 'So in six years under the system, fourth place has beaten first place twice. Make of that what you will.' I see where you're going there but I would say that first place is getting a rough deal being minor premiers and still having to play first up against one of the better performed teams in the finals. At Wimbledon, Federer and Nadal don't play off in the first round when they're ranked 1 & 2. I could live with positions 5 & 6, while playing higher opponents, getting a second chance dependent on other results. My team (Saints) copped a few hard luck runs through the old system so it's not fondness of experience either. Home ground decisions aside (I do think they are better now but could have been fixed in the old system), my main beef with the current system is that it gives teams from 5/6/7/8 an easier game first up, and the chance to build invaluable finals momentum, while half of the Top 4 turns up in week 2 coming off a loss and trying to avoid 'straight sets' headlines.
AJ Mithen
Expert
“I reckon the author is merely a one eyed sharks supporter” Jees Fred, people might start to suspect that you didn’t read the article, particularly the part where I talk about my beloved Raiders...
Fred
Guest
Yeah but they were lucky in 2016, cannot see them winning this one and I reckon the author is merely a one eyed sharks supporter. I would love to read Ronald's take on their chances (whatever happened to him, he was very entertaining on everything sharks). For mine, its either the storm or the roosters. I would not be surprised to see the storm lift and send billy out a winner
Worlds Biggest
Guest
The Sharks are my Smokey, the win in Melbourne was very impressive in particular the goal line defence. There a tough team well suited to the Semi Final grind. The two things that would concern me a little if I was a Sharks fan would be, 1) ill discipline, they can give some really silly penalties 2) there play 5 options rely heavily on Townsend, Brayley and Moylan don’t offer much here so a lot rests with Townsend getting it right However there is a lot to like about this team especially Holmes who is playing out of this world at the moment. They have a good mix of old hard heads and youngsters. This Sharks team are right in the mix.
McTavish
Roar Rookie
If my calculations are correct, I think at this stage it is theoretically possible that the top 8 could all finish on 32 points and obviously places would only be decided on differential!?
Mordac
Guest
Watch every game against tough opposition (i.e. semi final standard teams) for the past 5 years and Widdop if not the worst player on the field is close to it at least 95% of the time. Pretty damning considering he is (supposed to be) the main playmaker and captain. Then last week we saw a completely different (and better) team then we have since about round 8. Is Mann the answer? Not sure but without question he is better than Widdop so if Dragons are close to Shonkies with Widdop in the team, they will easily account for them without Widdop. Since Widdop came to the Dragons he has been paired with Williams, Benji, Hutchinson, McCrone, Mann, JDB and one or 2 more for one or two games only. Each halves pairing an utter disaster. Hunt and Widdop were clearly not to the "disaster" point yet but heading rapidly in that direction. And supercoach McGregor is still trying to work out what the common denominator is.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Really?
Adam
Roar Guru
I agree wholeheartedly with your thoughts too.
Matt P
Roar Rookie
Just a friendly reminder that the McIntyre system benefited the top 4 so much that you could finish 3rd and be knocked out in week 1. The problem with the McIntyre system was that in reality, it didn't actually favour the top 4 anywhere near as much as it simply favoured whoever was in the best form. Like above, the 3rd placed team could be knocked out in the 1st week, while the 6th placed team could lose first up and get a second shot. That in itself is a flawed concept. In theory, 1 v 8 etc. works, but that ignored the fact that ladder position often =/= recent form. No system is perfect, but the current one is far superior if you're looking for top 4 advantage. The top 4 are all guaranteed a second chance, while the bottom 4 knock each other out first and are all facing do-or-die every week. For the point about losing momentum if you lose in week 1, that's generally countered by the fact that there's every chance that whoever's won from the bottom four isn't in decent form themselves anyway. It's a much improved system, imo.
AJ Mithen
Expert
Get an article going! I'm with you, it's a really interesting area.
RM
Guest
I do find it interesting, the way different teams match up against each other and trying to work out the reasons why. The Broncos have the wood on the Sharks, yet the Sharks have a great record against Melbourne and Melbourne have the wood on the Broncos.
timmypig
Guest
They looked utterly clueless in the 2nd half in that game. Repeated sets on the Broncs' line and some really poor decision making. My 12 year old was watching with me and he went to bed furious, ranting at the ineptitude .... if it weren't for the disappointment of the Sharks losing that game my boy's performance would have been pretty funny.
AJ Mithen
Expert
Interesting post RM...
RM
Guest
Yeah - 2/2 for the Broncos vs Sharks this year, and I think it's something like 5 out of the last 6 as well. For whatever reason, the Sharks are just a good match-up for the Broncos. I think it is perhaps that the Sharks way of dragging teams into a low-scoring dogfight actually helps Milford and Nikorima. They don't really have to manage the game, as there's not much of a game to manage and a couple of moments of individual brilliance (which both are capable of, more so than guiding a team around a park and thinking several moves ahead) can often be enough to win such a match. The packs generally cancel each other out, the defense holds up pretty well on both sides and a player who can create a try out of nothing in a low-scoring game becomes a matchwinner.
AJ Mithen
Expert
We're gonna need you to elaborate on this one, Mordac...
JVGO
Guest
But for a couple of botched sitters from Chad and Val Sharks would likely be on a very long winning streak and sitting on top of the table. But shhh.....don't tell Flanno. Still every week is a danger game in this comp.
Nick
Roar Guru
Well, from that, it appears that if the Sharks finish 5th or 6th then they've got no chance of making the Grannie. And, as it stands, they are likely to finish 5th or 6th...
PNG Broncos fan88
Roar Guru
They looked a lesser team in round 15 and round 20 against Brisbane. Even though the margins suggested the games were close, Broncs had them covered in the forward battle and their halves had no impact except for some spurts of brilliance from Segeyaro at the end. Would love to face them again in a prelim or the GF (or any other team then the 'tackle tech' experts in purple).