Patience - not priority picks - is the cure for Carlton's Blues

The dust has settled on Carlton’s 2018 season and after 22 games, they’ve recorded just two wins and a percentage below 60 – their worst result in any season since 1901.

It’d be easy to forecast nothing but doom and gloom given those results, but a closer look at Carlton’s list suggests that while they’re pretty rubbish right now, it won’t stay that way forever.

Today in the first of instalment of my postseason list breakdown series we’ll take a look at Carlton, asking and answering all the big questions.

Are the kids alright? Where do the Blues need more players? Did they overperform or underperform? Which contracts are their top priorities? Will they sign a big free agent? Can they land Dylan Shiel at the trade table? Should they trade pick 1? If not, who should they draft with it? Will they get a priority pick? Should they? And more.

Enjoy the read today and be sure to check in over the next ten days as I breakdown the lists of every 2018 non-finalist.

Two important things to note before we get started.

Firstly, most references to player age in this series will be based on what age the players will be on Jan 1, 2019 – so some players may be described as being 23 when they’re presently 22, but will turn that age soon.

Secondly, I’ve used AFLCA votes extensively as a measure of on-field performance. No, it’s not a perfect measurement – not even close. But, it’s about as good as we’re going to get for an objective perspective.

List breakdown

As you’d expect for a club that’s firmly in the middle of a rebuild, Carlton entered the league as one of the youngest and least experienced sides of the season.

They were the fifth-youngest team in terms of the average age of the playing list, and equal-fifth least experienced (tied with the Western Bulldogs).

The Blues have 24 players on their list who are 23 or younger, which is slightly more than the league average of 22.

You can tell they’ve invested heavily in the past three drafts though, as 19 of those players are 21 or younger – way up on the league average of 14.

The Blues pumped 36 per cent of all games this year into their players aged 21 or younger, and just shy of 49 per cent of games were invested into players 23 or younger.

The league averages for those categories are 19 and 38 per cent respectively, so it’s clear the Blues are making an above-average investment in their youth at the selection table.

No other team in the league put as many games into players 21 or younger, and only Brisbane, Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs gave more games to players 23 and under.

The Blues were rewarded with 26 AFLCA votes being picked up by players aged 19-21, and a further 89 by their players 22-23 (most of those belonging to Patrick Cripps).

(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Compare that to an average of 25 votes across the competition being awarded to players 19-21 on each list, and 46 for players 22-23, and there’s enough evidence to suggest Carlton’s youth is on track in terms of their match-winning ability.

The key players here are of course Patrick Cripps but also Charlie Curnow, Zac Fisher, Paddy Dow, Matthew Kennedy, Caleb Marchbank, Harry McKay, Lochie O’Brien, Sam Petrveski-Seton, Lachie Plowman and Jacob Weitering.

In them, Blues fans have cause enough to believe that while the present may be unpleasant, the future is bright.

Unfortunately for the Blues, while the kids held up their end of the bargain, it was a lack of quality prime-age players that let them down.

The Blues saw just three AFLCA votes awarded all year to their players aged between 24 and 28, by an enormous margin the worst count in the league where the average list had 212 votes awarded to players in this age bracket.

You can tell why pretty quickly when looking at the players in this age group – Jed Lamb with 18 games and Liam Jones with 17 were the most prolific in terms of onfield appearances, with Aaron Mullett, Cam O’Shea, Levi Casboult and Nick Graham also hitting double digits.

A motley crew if ever there was one, and it’s no surprise that the Blues didn’t get much quality out of this group.

The Blues’ veterans, in particular, Ed Curnow and Kade Simpson, get a thumbs up. Players 29 and over brought in 57 of Carlton’s AFLCA votes, just a tick below the league average of 61.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Marc Murphy is also a valuable player in this bracket, but missed a decent chunk of the year through injury.

In total, the Carlton list picked up 175 AFLCA votes for the year, and they can take some pride in the fact that although they may have finished below them, they recorded more total votes across the club than both the Gold Coast and St Kilda – due largely to the outstanding form of Patrick Cripps.

Underperformed or overperformed?

When it comes to the team they were putting on the field each week, Carlton’s team was about 24-and-a-half on average across the season, and boasted 1765.32 games of experience.

That’s about half a year younger than the leaguewide average of 25 (sixth youngest), and 270 games less experienced than the leaguewide average of 2035.68 (fifth least experienced).

There’s a clear correlation between the age and experience of the team you put on the field and winning in the AFL – roughly two-thirds of all games are won by older or more experienced teams, and winning teams tend to be nearly half a year older and 200 games more experienced on average than losing teams.

That being the case, it’s no surprise that Carlton lost this year – a lot. However to pick up only two wins and finish with a percentage of 59.3, the worst in the league in both respects, was still a well below par effort given the Blues weren’t that far below the average age and experience benchmarks compared to some others.

Verdict: Underperformed.

Contracts

Overall, the Blues are doing really well on the contracts front. Just about all of the crucial young players on their list – in particular Patrick Cripps and Charlie Curnow – have been signed up for the long term already, and convincing Marc Murphy to remain with the club mid-year was a final coup.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

That being the case, their top priority right now should be to sign up Kade Simpson, Dale Thomas, Matthew Wright and Sam Rowe to one-year deals for 2019. Some of the four may be weighing up retirement, but the Blues simply cannot afford to let them go if they’re willing to stay.

Carlton will also have to consider the futures of Nick Graham, Sam Kerridge, Jed Lamb, Aaron Mullett, Cam O’Shea, Matt Shaw and Alex Silvagni.

None of the six appears likely to be a part of any future success, and they should only be kept around if they’re a good influence on the club’s developing young stars – I’d expect most if not all of them will be cut.

Jesse Glass McCasker has had three years on the rookie list without making his debut, Kym LeBois two years for the same result. One would have to assume both will be cut to make room for new rookies.

Looking ahead to 2019, the Blues’ top priority should be to sign up Harry McKay for the long term, as he’ll be out of contract at the end of next season.

2023
Charlie Curnow

2022
Paddy Dow

2021
Patrick Cripps
Zac Fisher
Tom De Koning
Lochie O’Brien
Sam Petrevski-Seton
Jacob Weitering

2020
Sam Docherty
Harrison Macreadie
Marc Murphy
Lachie Plowman
Cameron Polson
Tom Williamson

2019
Ciaran Byrne
Levi Casboult
David Cuningham
Ed Curnow
Jarrod Garlett
Liam Jones
Patrick Kerr
Matthew Kreuzer
Matthew Lobbe
Caleb Marchbank
Cillian McDaid
Harry McKay
Andrew Phillips
Angus Schumacher
Jack Silvagni

Out of contract
Jesse Glass-McCasker
Nick Graham
Sam Kerridge
Jed Lamb
Kym LeBois
Aaron Mullett
Cameron O’Shea
Sam Rowe
Matt Shaw
Alex Silvagni
Kade Simpson
Dale Thomas
Matthew Wright

Unconfirmed
Darcy Lang
Jarrod Pickett
Matthew Kennedy

(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Free agency

The Blues are lacking mature bodies but aren’t going to want to give up valuable draft picks to get them, so free agency is the logical route to go down as it gives them the means to do exactly that.

The flaw of course in free agency is that players don’t generally want to move to a club at or near the bottom of the ladder if they’ve got any other option, which good players normally do.

This is clearly something those running the show at Carlton are a bit perturbed by. Both Stephen Silvagni and Brendon Bolton have had a public crack at free agency during the year.

That being the case, one can assume with confidence although they no doubt enquired at some point, Carlton will not be landing a player like Andrew Gaff or Tom J Lynch this offseason.

They do however seem to have landed one signature: it seems just about locked in that Alex Fasolo will be joining them on a three-year deal.

Fasolo probably fits into that category of players who will come because they don’t have much else to choose from – he’s fallen out of favour at Collingwood this year and the security of long-term deal at Carlton will appeal.

At his best Fasolo could grease the wheels of Carlton’s forward line and offer some pizzazz around goals. At his worst, he’s often been accused of going missing and failing to put in a good defensive effort.

(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

The Blues haven’t been linked too strongly to any other free agents, but there’s a few I’d say they should have a crack at.

Mitch Wallis and Luke Dahlhaus from the Western Bulldogs would both be valuable pickups, fitting into the age bracket the Blues are targetting and would add some mature muscle to their midfield depth (not to mention Dahlhaus’ premiership experience).

Both have other suitors, but Carlton surely would have the salary cap room available to make them superior financial offers, which might be enough to sway them.

Although, as we’ve discussed, the Blues have some valuable veterans, it’s still a worthy idea for them to pursue an older player from another club, particularly if they can land one who has a lot of finals and premiership experience – ala Luke Hodge to Brisbane.

They’ve already ruled out any interest in Brendon Goddard, and seem committed to instead pursuing players in a younger age bracket, but they’d be foolish to overlook some of the possibilities here.

No.1 on the shopping list would have to be Jarrad McVeigh, who has said he wants to play on but might not get another contract offer at Sydney. Offering him a deal to play for another one or two years before becoming an assistant coach at the club would be a major coup.

I’d also consider offering a deal to Paul Puopolo – he’s yet to re-sign with the Hawks for 2019, and could teach Carlton’s young forwards a thing or two while also setting a good example at training and in delivering defensive pressure on field, before possibly also transitioning into coaching.

(Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)

Trade period

The Blues have been one of the league’s most active sides during trade period over the past few years, and that looks likely to continue in 2018.

At the top of the wishlist is Dylan Shiel, a player whose name is cropping up more and more in trade discussions lately.

The deal with Shiel seems to be that he had an eye on returning to Victoria at the end of next year, but might wind up moving sooner.

Shiel is contracted until the end of next year when he would instead be a restricted free agent, but it’s reported that a salary cap squeeze could see the Giants be willing to cut their losses and trade him now.

Carlton are one of three clubs reported to be in the hunt, with Essendon and Hawthorn the others pursuing his signature.

The Blues do have a few good reasons to believe that they could land Shiel.

To start with, they almost certainly have the inside track in terms of contact – Shiel has a longstanding relationship with Stephen Silvagni, and I’d bet Carlton have been in touch with his management much earlier than anyone else.

Secondly, they’re bound to be able to make Shiel a sweeter financial offer than either Essendon or Hawthorn can manage.

And lastly, they’ve got more trade capital thanks to having pick 1 this year and likely a high pick again in 2019 – so if GWS have any kind of choice in the matter, they’ll probably be pushing Shiel in this direction.

Pick 1 in a swap for Shiel is the deal that’s been discussed. Personally, as much as Shiel is an excellent player, I wouldn’t be making that trade if I were the Blues.

Instead, I’d say the deal would probably be Carlton’s 2019 first rounder for Shiel. The Blues can back themselves in to improve a little in 2019 if they land Shiel and also have a fit Sam Docherty added to their side next year.

However, the overall problem when it comes to Shiel is this: it’s just not that likely. While the Blues do have some things going in their favour, I’d expect when he does move, this year or next, it’ll be to a club better positioned for success in the near future.

(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

Probably more realistic is the younger players the Blues have been linked to: Will Brodie and Jack Scrimshaw at the Gold Coast Suns, and Will Setterfield at the GWS Giants.

Both Brodie and Scrimshaw have had limited opportunities at Gold Coast this year despite the Suns’ struggles, and although they’re contracted until the end of 2020 there’s been significant speculation that they’ll look to request trades home to Victoria.

Carlton are probably the most likely destination if so, as they haven’t really been linked strongly to any other clubs, but have been brought up in connection to the Blues more than a few times.

Setterfield probably depends on what happens with Shiel. He too is contracted until the end of 2020, but is one that the Giants might be open to moving on in order to relieve salary cap pressure.

Essendon are known to be interested in him too, and probably have the inside track – they’ve been keen on him since his draft year and even considered bidding on him with pick 1 then.

If Shiel comes to the Dons then the Blues could woo Setterfield, of course, if that happens then GWS might no longer have a need to move him on to make salary cap room.

I’d say Brodie should be the top priority – he’s shown some serious talent at AFL level and would be a brilliant longterm midfield partner for Patrick Cripps. If they can also land Scrimshaw or Setterfield, bonus.

The difficult thing, of course, will be striking a deal for them at the trade table, as aside from pick 1 – which they presumably won’t want to give away – the Blues have relatively little trade currency this year.

Because they swapped their second rounder to the Crows in last year’s Bryce Gibbs deal, their next pick won’t come until number 24, which probably wouldn’t be enough to secure the likes of Brodie et al given they’re contracted for next year and beyond.

This is where the potential for the Blues to be awarded a priority pick (which we’ll discuss more later on) comes in – they’d likely get pick 19 at worst, which might give them a better chance at getting a deal done.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

The Blues have also been linked to Aaron Hall and Dom Tyson during the year. Hall could be handy steak knives in a larger deal with the Suns but has been linked more strongly to North Melbourne, while Tyson is probably more likely to see out his contract with Melbourne.

Nic Newman at Sydney is the other player I’d be looking at. While he’s not necessarily a position they’re craving, he potentially represents good value, which is always a possibility worth exploring.

What’s also been talked about a lot for Carlton is the possibility of trading the No.1 pick – as it always is every year for the club with the first selection, only to so-rarely-ever come to pass.

It has been suggested that Adelaide could offer Carlton a draft bonanza as they’ve got a number of early picks this year. At this stage, they’ve got pick 7, 19, and Melbourne’s first-round pick all inside the top 20.

The Crows would love to move up to the top of the draft order and snag South Australian wunderkind Jack Lukosius, but even with all those picks I don’t think they’re going to have enough currency to make Carlton come to the table.

If I were Carlton I’d only consider trading pick 1 to a team that can offer a selection in the top six plus something very worthwhile to make up the gap – Adelaide’s pick 7 is just outside the range where this year’s best young talent will be found.

It’s probably not particularly realistic that a deal of that nature materialises, but if I’m the Blues I’d considering dangling the selection in front of Gold Coast or Fremantle, who both have good reason to want to move up – but we’ll talk more about that when we come to those teams.

Draft

Inside the first three rounds, Carlton have pick 1, courtesy of finishing on the bottom of the ladder, as well as picks 24 and 25, formerly belonging to the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide Crows and acquired through trade last year.

Their own original second and third round picks – what would be 19 and 37 – are both at West Lakes, courtesy of the complicated swap that saw Bryce Gibbs leave the club.

What has been talked about much already and will be talked about plenty more before rubber meets the road is the decision Carlton faces between Victorian midfielder Sam Walsh and South Australian key forward Jack Lukosius with the first pick of the draft – if they do, as expected, keep it.

Sam Walsh. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Walsh is the best midfielder in the draft, but also likely the best leader in the draft. He won the Larke Medal as the MVP of the U18 championships – despite playing in a Victorian Country side who lost every game – and by all reports has the charisma and character of a future AFL captain.

At 183cm and 74kg, Walsh is more of an outside midfielder at the moment, but will likely eventually develop into a prolific hybrid type who can both win the ball and deliver it.

Lukosius, on the other hand, is the top key forward prospect in the draft and, according to some, might be the best key forward prospect that the draft has seen in upwards of a decade.

Some pundits have gone a little gunshy on drafting key forwards early given the struggles of players like Tom Boyd and Paddy McCartin after being the No.1 pick, but Lukosius is a different breed.

Whereas Boyd and McCartin dominated the lower levels due to their immense physical size, 194cm 85kg Lukosius is more of a mobile athletic key forward in the mould of Nick Riewoldt, so probably more suited to the modern game.

Look, it’s a debate that could go on for a long time, and you can be sure we’ll discuss it in more detail when the draft gets a bit closer.

I’d take Lukosius personally – I know Carlton fans want a midfielder, but they’ll get plenty of future opportunities to draft good mids, and might not get a chance to draft a player like Lukosius again for years to come.

In the end though, don’t think of it as a choice with a right answer and a wrong answer – there are two right answers to the question of who to take at pick 1, and whichever way the Blues go they’ll be on a winner.

Jack Lukosius. (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

The Blues are also in the mix to get a priority pick from the AFL, and at this stage it’s not clear where in the order that will fall.

While there’s been some talk of it coming at the start of the draft, I have extreme doubts that this will eventuate, as the league’s other clubs are likely to set fire to AFL house if it happens.

Instead I’d wager the most likely result is the Blues get a selection at the end of the first round, which would be pick 19, although there’s some chance it could be in the middle, at pick 11.

This probably isn’t the time and place to discuss the question of priority picks in depth, but suffice to say my stance is that Carlton shouldn’t get one, because no one should get one.

In my view, the provision to hand out priority picks should only exist for use in extremely catastrophic and unavoidable circumstances, the likes of which we’re yet to see in the league and hopefully never will.

Moreover, the fact the Blues publicly rejected the notion of asking for a priority pick during the year and are now set to approach the AFL cap in hand feels to me like a crushing blow to the morale of the club.

I suspect the Blues would have more to gain in the future from the pride which comes from building off the sweat of their own brow than they would from securing yet one earlyish more draft selection – but, enough on this subject.

There’s a good chance that the Blues could trade away whatever priority pick they get – the AFL may even attach that as a condition – or the picks they hold in the second round, for players like Brodie, Scrimshaw or Setterfield.

If they don’t, I’d say the priority with these selections should be to add depth to their midfield and find some medium or small goalkickers.

Riley Collier-Dawkins and Luke Valente are two I like for the Blues as midfielders. 193cm 88kg Collier-Dawkins is a big lad who’d make a great longterm partner for Patrick Cripps at the coalface, especially if they don’t bring in Will Brodie, while Valente captained South Australia to the trophy at the U18 championships and was voted the state’s MVP by his peers, a sure sign of good character.

Curtis Taylor or Ian Hill would both fit the bill for medium-small forwards, but will probably be outside the Blues’ reach unless they get a middle-of-first-round compensation pick. Ned McHenry would be a more realistic pick later in the draft.

Carlton will probably also acquire third-generation father-son prospect Ben Sivagni – son of Stephen, brother of Jack – with a late pick in the draft.

The Blues are also in with a chance of getting priority access to sign two mature state league players this year as part of a range of measure the AFL are looking to use to assist them and the Suns, either alongside or instead of priority picks.

It’s not clear exactly how this will work just yet, but I’d suspect probably the Blues and the Suns will effectively have the chance to sign two mature players each as if they were free agents.

They might also have the option of on-trading the ability to sign these mature players to other clubs, as Gold Coast and GWS did as part of establishment concessions, though it seems more likely that the AFL will want the Blues and Suns to be the ones adding mature talent.

If this had come in last year for example it would’ve give clubs at the bottom of the ladder the chance to pick up the likes of Tim Kelly and Liam Ryan before anyone else in the league got a crack – unfortunately, this year’s crop of mature-agers isn’t quite so star-studded.

If it does happen though I’d expect Carlton would be a strong chance to sign VFL forward Josh Corbett, a prolific forward for Werribee known for his ability to clunk a mark.

Former Fremantle player Sam Collins as well as Hayden Schloithe and Marlion Pickett from the WAFL would also be potentially in the mix.

What I said last year

“If Carlton continue down the path of consistently investing in youth and are able to develop and keep together their talent in a way that Brendon Bolton’s tenure so far suggests they can, it will eventually pay dividends.

“It won’t happen overnight though. All going swimmingly, I would project them to be in the mix for a return to finals after the turn of the decade, with the mid-2020s likely to be their soonest possible window for premiership contention.”

Outlook

I still agree largely with my thoughts this time last year about the Blues. While 2018 was a much worse year than expected, poor results were exacerbated by an unusually bad run with injury and are no reason to throw out the baby with the bathwater.

Sam Docherty will be back in the side next year, Marc Murphy will hopefully play a full year, and the Blues can hope to see a step up to the next level from at least some of the likes of Jacob Weitering, Sam Petrevski-Seton and Paddy Dow.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

If the Blues want to rapidly increase their competitiveness then they need to add star players in that 24-28 bracket – so it’s no surprise that they’re pursuing someone like Dylan Shiel. He’d be perfect, but realistically, I do not think it’s going to happen.

More plausibly, the Blues should look to bring in Will Brodie at the trade table and one of Sam Walsh or Jack Lukosius in the draft – it won’t fix their problems overnight, but it will add another two elite talents to a list that is stockpiling them.

A Jarrad McVeigh or Paul Puopolo type to add another layer of veteran class and influence would be gravy, and if they can bring a in a few other promising players to take a punt on – either at the trade table or via the draft – that’ll help too.

Despite what external commentary may suggest, they don’t need a big ‘shake-up’ either at the trade table or among the coaching staff – in fact, that would be about the worst thing they could do. Continue to practice the good habits developed over the last three years, and eventually the wheel will turn.

What’s working in Carlton’s favour is that despite what external critics might say, they’ve got time up their sleeves. They have a patient fan base, and their important young players have largely all committed to the club longterm.

Particularly valuable is the fact they have Patrick Cripps signed up for another three years – with West Coast potentially set to lose Andrew Gaff and Scott Lycett, he would have been at top of their list of targets if out of contract next year.

Cripps and also Charlie Curnow are some of the league’s most very elite young talents. The Blues have one over on the likes of say Gold Coast and St Kilda in that they know with certainty they’ve got at least two undisputed under-23 A-graders on their list.

Carlton aren’t going to become a finals-quality side in the blink of an eye, but if they continue to invest in young talent while doing what they can to build a culture where that talent is challenged and flourishes, they’ll eventually make their way back up the table.

Oh, and no, Carlton’s grey clash guernsey isn’t the reason they’re bad at football – although it is hideous.