Michael Cheika had nothing but pain to acknowledge after his 50th Test as Wallaby coach. It was the a second hammering by the All Blacks in a week, dropping his overall success rate to 50 per cent.
In two games the men in black scored 78 points to 25, crossed for 12 tries to four, ran 1579 metres to 948 and missed 45 tackles to 83. There’s been a growing chorus for Cheika to be sacked.
Surely the penny has dropped that the real problem is captain Michael Hooper, who now has a success rate of 38.71 per cent. That’s just a dozen wins from 31 Tests.
Cheika must bench him, especially following Hooper’s ridiculous quotes in the Sydney Morning Herald after the second defeat that no All Black would be in the Wallaby side if he was picking it.
Delusional, moronic, or in urgent need of medical attention?
Beauden Barrett of the All Blacks is tackled by Michael Hooper of the Wallabies (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
The Hooper story only came about through injury to key players.
If David Pocock hadn’t suffered successive knee reconstuctions in 2013 and 2014 that cost him two years on the sideline, Hooper would have been a benchman at best.
As co-vice captain with Adam Ashley-Cooper to Stephen Moore, Hooper became the fourth youngest Wallaby captain at 22 years and 223 days when Moore’s leg injury in the opening minutes of the first Test against France in 2014 cost him the season.
It was a dream start with Hooper leading the Wallabies to a three-nil series success scoring 95 points to 36, and crossing for 12 tries to three.
But by Christmas 2014, there were many doubts about Hooper’s captaincy with a 14-6 track record for a 42.86 per cent success rate.
And it has hovered around that mark throughout, until now at an all-time low 38.71.
Hooper isn’t the best number seven in Australia, and certainly not the best captain. Pocock is both.
Pocock has been by far the best Wallaby in both defeats by the All Blacks with average ratings of seven, while Hooper has floundered around the four mark – a score unbecoming of a Wallaby captain.
It’s farcical that Pocock has to play number eight, because Hooper is too small to fill any other position than seven.
Cheika must bench Hooper, and immediately install Pocock as seven and captain if the Wallabies are to beat the Boks and the Pumas in the four remaining Rugby Championship games home and away.
That would take Cheika’s success rate to 53.7 per cent, and with three wins over Wales, Italy, and England at the end of the year, Cheika would finish 2018 with an acceptable 56.14 per cent success rate.
Pocock’s Wallaby captaincy stats prior to his double knee disaster stood at six Tests for four wins, or 66.67.
Add those seven wins to round off the year, and Pocock’s success rate would leap to 84.61.
That would be a confident grounding moving into the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan.
Cheika has said all along he’ll bail out if he doesn’t improve the Wallabies at the World Cup.
Having reached the 2015 final to lose to the All Blacks, that comment translates to the Wallabies winning the 2019 edition, or Cheika will call it day.
Wallabies head coach Michael Cheika (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
I have the Wallabies reaching the Yokohama decider in October next year, topping Group D, beating either France, or the Pumas, in the quarters, and Ireland in the semis to again do battle with the All Blacks in the big one.
If Cheika does go, there are only three possible replacements from 2020 forward: Eddie Jones, Brad Thorn, or Simon Cron.
Jones already has 57.89 success rate (57-33) with the Wallabies in reaching the 2003 RWC final, and currently an 80.64 rate (31-25) coaching England.
Thorn is a new boy on the coaching block, having taken over the Queensland Reds for the first time with six wins from 15 Super Rugby games with the Reds finishing stronger than they started.
But his international playing career is exceptional in both rugby as an All Black with 59 caps, eight in rugby league as a Kangaroo and 11 for the Maroons in State of Origin.
Throw in 171 provincial rugby games in New Zealand, and 209 for the Broncos, and Thorn has had the best of two worlds, excelling in both.
Cron has got what it takes to be an international coach.
Born and bred in Canterbury, where rugby is a religion, he was a four-time premiership player before moving to Sydney where he coached Northern Suburbs in 2016 to their first Shute Shield in 41 years, and reached the final last year before losing to Warringah’s first success.
Since then he has coached the Australian under 20 side, and this season was an assistant coach under Daryl Gibson at the Waratahs.
In the meantime Michael Cheika is the Wallaby coach until the Rugby World Cup, and should remain so if David Pocock is the captain.
If Michael Hooper still gets the coach’s nod, Cheika can count on an uproar of deafening proportions hollering for his dismissal.
Saigondave
Roar Rookie
Should captains be selected because of their wining record or by how they lead the team on and off the field? I think the argument for Pocock should not be based on the stats, but a) on his selection (a certainty when fit), b) his position (and 7 is a great position to lead from) and c) on his performance (outstanding) and d) his leadership. He should be picked on the open side and Hooper to be his able backup later in the match. By all of these measures for this observer he outshines Hooper on all counts. I’m not sure how Hooper would take the demotion, though, he comes across as quite sulky.
Phil
Guest
Thanks for another Hooper bashing article,David.Also,your credibility suffers when you offer up Jones,Thorn and Cron as the likely choices for next Wallabies coach!Jones is now showing his true colours with England(did you forget he got punted from Wallabies job previously?),Thorn is very new and far from proving himself as a top coach(and he was one of my favourite players).Cron,I am not sure of as he is also rather new to the top level.A Shute Shield premiership is a long way from an international rugby test(especially against the AB's),although he did seem to bring some improvement to the Tahs this year,but still only an assistant.
Mick Gold Coast QLD
Roar Guru
How quickly the punters forget the Two Fathers peerage, the aspiring Earl of Shaftesbury dispensing directions from the throne - which coach was worthy and which was not, the rightful captain, who should be selected and the dire consequences for those who disrespected the powerful executive group of the leadership group, having mum be publicly appalled, diving enthusiastically into the political warfare of life on the board as players' representative, never being outed by the journalists as a mediocre winger playing out of position.
TG
Guest
The wallabies are doomed as long as Hooper is in the run on side. Simple as that. The wallabies do have other issues but Hooper is by far the main problem. How he has ended up wallabies captain is beyond me. Christ, we was never better than Liam Gill but somehow he has displaced arguably the best open side flanker in world rugby. Don’t get me started on that contract, I’m sure that’s doing wonders for team cohesion.
neily
Guest
Absolutely correct
Jacko
Guest
And yet here you are reading his article and commenting on it.....
Iain Barclay
Guest
Good point re Hooper's record as captain - but I'm not holding my breath waiting for Cheika to work this out for himself. I think Wessels could be added to the list of possible Australian coaches - especially if the Rebels step up again next season.
peter sloane
Guest
Fascinating insight into NZ rugby with the interview of steve Hansen by Allan Jones on the radio. Hooper, just signed 6 million for five years, Jodie Barrett NZU only gave him a 1 year contract to see where he is in a year. Enough said
Johno
Guest
Agree to an extent. Maybe a couple more years at the Reds, then a year or 2 as assistant coach to Bernie Larkham (who I can’t believe no one has mentioned yet!) and Thorn will be ready. I hate Thorn, so it pains me greatly to even mention him in the same sentence as the words Wallabies and coach. I do like his no nonsense approach to coaching and team discipline, something that has been sorely lacking in Australian rugby, and shines in AB’s teams. Especially the teams in Thorns era.
Rugby wizard
Guest
Hooper is there because Cheika has done research on past successful wallaby teams,The team of RWC 2003 lost too an england team who had some players in there who was the best they produced in a century and they beat a good all black side ,Jones played Waugh and smith and it worked that's why he is sticking with two fetches,Cockbain played 6 which explains Tui,but he misses the boat those teams was a good defensive unit,The wallabies conceded more tries in 50 minutes in Sydney than the 1999 team the entire world cup.
Rugby wizard
Guest
It looks like Cheika will stay until 2023RWC,his squad selections show that,he is building towards that,he has a squad of many players who will be brilliant only come 2023,the world cup is next year combinations experimenting should have been done 2016/2017,forget test cap rule pick the best possible 15, why have a test cap rule if players don't get the chance they deserve,hooper plays all test matches 2016/2017 why could gill not get a few starts at least 7 he deserved it,4 years in super rugby should make you eligible,just pick the right team for 2019 and come 2020/2021 try different combinations,right now we should be close too getting things right. RWC 2019 1.Sio 2.Nau 3.Thor 4.Philip 5.Fardy 6.higgenbotham 7.Pocock 8.McMahon captain 9.Genia 10.Tomua 11.Morahan 12.Godwin 13.AAC. VC 14.Falou 15.Beale Bench 16.Aalatou 17.Kepu 18.Hansen 19.Jones 20.Naisarani 21.White 22.Foley 23.Conor Rest of squad 1.slipper 2.Faingaa 3.Philip 4.Gill 5.Powell 6Barnes 7.Parese 2023 RWC 1.Hoskins,Vui,Robertson 2.Faingaa,Ready,Amosa 3.Ainsley,Thor, 4.Hockings,Rodda 5.Staniforth,Tui,coleman 6.Leota,Fakosilea,Browning,Young 7.Wright,Hooper,Gill 8.Valetini,Hewatt,Chriton 9.Tuttle,Lonergan,Goddard 10.Stewart,Mason 11.Petaii,Hutchinson 12.Tuipolotu,Hodge 13.Magnay,Tupou 14.Parese,Ponga 15.Maddocks,Placid
HM
Guest
One can only hope there is disunity in the dressing room. The team is 42% over 2017 and 2018 (19 tests). If everything is peachy there is something wrong.
Tooly
Roar Rookie
Watching Pocock being left unsupported in attack , defence and over the ball I can’t work out why Hooper is there. You missed the logical late replacement as coach Luge: A B Jones and his preferred staff.
Simoc
Guest
Yes there is a reason no one takes any notice of DL. He's B minus grade.
Frank
Guest
I was told that Frisbee wasn't overly ambitious - and was just as happy playing club. Perhaps that had something to do with it.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
You remember incorrectly. Ben Mowen was not offered a contract. This was because a rule was put in place meaning unless somebody had been in the Wallabies program for 2 seasons, they weren't eligible for a guaranteed contract. It was a way to limit spending money on similar players. With the rise of Fardy later in 2013, with Higginbotham, Palu and Pocock back fit as well as McCalman potentially returned, Mowen was not a certainy to even make the squad, let alone the 23 or starting XV. The other difference was that Mowen was a short term captain when a number of players were injured or had form issues, rather than a first choice captain..
Leew
Guest
No one in NZ will complain if Hooper is captain. Or Cheika coach. They are both out of their depth & wallabies will never be a threat while they are there. RA & precious player power stuffed the wallabies when they sacked Deans. You won’t make the RWC final Dave, Ireland have your measure & Schmidt is to smart for old mate cheika.
Bakkies
Roar Guru
Larkham coached the Brumbies to two semi finals appearances.
Patrick
Guest
Bench Hooper? The 6 million dollar man? He should be dropped but he won't be. It would only serve to highlight the pathetic administration at ARU HQ. Cheika would be blamed for dropping Hooper & he would be sacked. The only option Cheika has right now is full steam ahead onto the rocks with Hooper at the helm, they will both go down with the ship holed below the waterline.
Frank
Guest
100% agree Glen