‘The more things change, the more they stay the same’.
It’s a phrase that aptly describes the ‘drafting good players/losing good players’ scenario facing the Gold Coast Suns, for whom the 2018 draft shapes as a crucial foundation for the club’s long-term future.
Since the club’s formation in 2010, it has had 15 first-round draft picks (not including its first draft in 2009, where it took six). From 2010-2014, only four out of the 44 total players selected remain on the club’s list.
In 2014, it went through its first ‘reset’, taking two first-round picks (Peter Wright and Jared Garlett), as well as likely future club captain Touk Miller, and has taken at least two first-round selections each year since. However, the club has done a much better job of retaining players drafted since 2014, with 17 out of 33 remaining on the list.
Their on and off-field woes have been well-documented, culminating in the loss of both their original co-captains this season. Under new coach Stuart Dew, however, the Suns seem to have created a new club culture and embraced a new, more defensively-minded game plan.
It will take another few years before this begins to bear fruit, but the signs are there that the club might finally be heading in the right direction.
After having four first-round selections in 2016, it finds itself in a similar position again this year, with picks 2, 3, 6, 24, and 29. The club managed to bring in a few players – albeit handy depth rather than stars – in the trade period – midfielders Corey Ellis and Anthony Miles from Richmond; George Horlin-Smith from Geelong, as well as key defender Jack Hombsch from Port Adelaide.
They also brought in three mature-age players from the State leagues, including forwards Josh Corbett and Chris Burgess, and key defender Sam Collins. That addressed a few needs, so the club’s draft strategy should be focused on bringing in elite young talent with good character and work ethic.
Draft strategy
Holding three top-10 picks gives the Suns the ability to be the main shapers of this year’s draft. What they decide to do with picks 2 and 3 will have a big bearing on shaping the rest of the top 10, including what the club does at pick 6.
Let’s assume Sam Walsh is taken by Carlton at pick one. I think the Suns will likely go for the option of ‘pairing’ either two South Australian players (out of Jack Lukosius, Izak Rankine, or Connor Rozee), or the King twins with their first two picks.
Lukosius is a key forward with excellent game and goal sense, while Rozee is a quick and classy midfielder. Rankine is a half-forward who could be the most exciting player in the draft and has rare match-winning qualities. The King twins, Max and Ben, are both key forwards, but Ben has also excelled as a key defender this year.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Any of these players would be excellent acquisitions for the Suns – the Kings would provide flexibility and key focal points in attack, while all three of the South Australians would add a touch of class.
Crucially, pairing players also helps mitigate the desire for players to leave after only a few years at the club, and it’s been a strategy (whether conscious or unconscious) that seems to have worked for the club – since 2014, the majority of its draftees have been Victorian, and only Scrimshaw has really failed to settle.
We saw last year that the club was so desperate to arrest the trend of players wanting to leave that it gave Fremantle pick 2 for Lachie Weller, a native Queenslander, so it stands to reason that this will likely influence their draft strategy this year.
Based on the pairing strategy, I’d say the club are likely to go with Lukosius and Rankine with their two picks. At the pointy end of the draft, clubs usually take the players they judge to be the best, regardless of needs or positions, which means they generally end up taking midfielders and more versatile players, rather than key position players.
However, the Kings are both very, very good players, and the Suns could build a forward line around them for the next 10 years, which must be a tempting prospect.
Pick 6 then becomes interesting, as they need to wait and see who St Kilda and Port Adelaide select before them. Again, I think the Suns will likely take the best available player at 6. If the Saints select Max King (which is likely, given he’s a Saints fan and has been training with the club a few days a week), and Port take the remaining South Australian in Rozee, I’d say the Suns will likely snap up either half-back Jordan Clark or midfielder Bailey Smith, who would both complement their earlier selections nicely.
However, if the Saints decide on Smith, Rozee, or another midfielder, the Suns could find that Max or Ben King fall into their laps, and either would be extremely difficult to pass up there.
Picks 24 and 29 then become more about needs. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that the Suns have the worst list in the competition, so they need pretty much everything. But I’d say the key areas to address are forwards, midfield speed and key defenders.
They addressed some of these needs with Hombsch, Collins, Burgess, and Corbett, so speed and pressure are likely to be high on their list here. Tenacious small forward Ned McHenry is a diligent worker and would be handy. If they decide to go for a midfielder, versatile prospect Xavier Duursma could appeal, as might Chayce Jones, a Tasmanian with excellent endurance. Jez McLennan could also be an option as a half-back flanker.
Whoever they select, it’s crucial that the Suns find the right mix to build a solid foundation on which to take the club, finally, forward.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
To me, Weller was the equivalent of a top 10 pick, just maybe more the 7-8 range. Great pace and skills, he's also hard at it when he needs to be. The Suns needed players that were more likely to be invested long-term, more than they need last year's pick 2. They've more than enough high picks on their list (who may be flight risks), with more coming in. Going hard at Weller and luring him out of Freo was a wise enough move and doing it last year was the safer option as he and his girlfriend were getting more settled in Freo by the year.
Paul D
Roar Guru
From all accounts he has been incredible for the group. I'd argue he's as good as and deserves to be regarded in exactly the same breath as Michael Voss on the field, in terms of how much he can inspire those around him. The story Charlie Cameron told about how cans of coke stopped being cracked from the training room fridge the moment Hodge arrived at the club is a classic case. Just made it clear it wasn't part of the deal of being a pro footballer. Water all round.
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
I saw the Lions players (1-4 years) back at training and Luke Hodge has joined them. Berry was saying how impressive it is to see Hodge there leading from the front.
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Absolutely they are without a doubt. And with where the team is placed and likely outlook for success in the next 5 years, coupled with total player power in trades, it is a long road back (if ever) for them.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Pick 6 might be part of a pick swap depending on who is available, but I agree it's really unlikely regardless. Pretty sure players can't be swapped as part of live trading so what's the point, Suns need established players, not picks. If Dew has put a line through Lyons I doubt he's gonna want Townsend.
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
One thing that is unlikely to happen is the Suns trading any of those early picks in some convoluted Pick Swap that people are so crazy for on this forum. The Suns do not have the luxury of moving down the order and need to nail Picks 2,3 and 6 and just take who they think are the three best players available with those picks. One thing that would annoy me is if they select yet another skinny winger-half back flanker with any of those three picks or even picks 24 and 29. They have more than enough of this type of player on the list. If they do pair up either the King Twins or the SA pairing then Pick 6 absolutely must be the best midfielder available at that pick. Same goes for Picks 24/29. There are some handy delisted Free Agents worth looking at and maybe they should try and pick up a Jacob Townsend who has been part of a successful and elite team this past 2-3 years to try and impart so standards to the Suns list.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I'd take the King twins if I was the Suns. To hell with Lukosius and Rankine. let SA squabble and fight with the Melbourne clubs for their preciouses
Ditto
Roar Rookie
Sorry Jonte, but have to agree with Papa Joe. However, if after doing my deal and placing Adelaide at 4 and therefore cutting out the possibility that a King could be taken at that spot, GC could strike a deal with Port, as you see from my draft predictor they have been somewhat cut out of the loop. GC could trade picks 2&24 to Port and in return Port give back picks 5&10. GC's draft hand would then read picks 3,5,8,10&16. This deal at least on points slightly favours Port, but given that Port want Lukosius and GC want a King picks 2&3 are essentially the same value, but Port get the reassurance that they definitely get Lukosius and besides I still think that GC 'owe' Port in the Hombsh deal. GC get the King twins, Port get Lukosius and Adelaide get Rankine. The resultant top 10 then reads. 1. Carlton - Sam Walsh 2. Port Adelaide - Jack Lukosius 3. Gold Coast - Max King 4. Adelaide - Izak Rankine 5. Gold Coast - Ben King 6. St Kilda - Conor Rozee 7. Western Bulldogs - Bailey Smith 8. Gold Coast - ? 9. GWS - ? 10. Gold Coast - ? Somewhere in there Sydney match a bid for Nick Blakey.
Papa Joe
Roar Rookie
Jonte - an innovative and thoughtful strategy, but GC could end up with three talls with their top three picks (Lukosius and the King twins), which is not ideal and very risky. I don't think they will get cute, but just take the best pair at 2/3 that suits the club (and if the chattering classes are right, it will be Lukosius with either Rankine or Rozee). That Bailey Smith looks a gun, and the Saints are just as likely to take him as M King. The Saints may be wary of taking a tall at such an early pick. Has there been an outstanding tall taken in the first five draft picks since Reiwoldt?
Ditto
Roar Rookie
Papa Joe, one thing that I think you may be missing in my pick swap idea is that Adelaide still retain pick 13. The difference between pick 21, which they lose and pick 29 which they gain is not significant, in fact it may be the same player (Tom Sparrow?). So they are essentially giving up pick 8 (Jackson Hately?)and 16 (Jez McLennan?) for a shot at Rankine, if they miss Rankine they get Rozee, then use pick 46 on someone like Hugo Munn. For me Adelaide would do that deal everyday of the week. Whether GC and St Kilda would go for it, I don't know, but it definitely has merits for them to consider.
Papa Joe
Roar Rookie
Fair enough Ditto - just a slightly read. I agree Rankine looks a standout and that Rozee is v good, but so are Bailey Smith and the King twins - and I reckon the Saints may choose a good Melb player over a good Adelaide player. All conjecture and speculation of course, and only time will tell.
Ditto
Roar Rookie
In my scenario if GC take Rankine then Adelaide take Rozee. Rozee is bloody good, he's not lasting to pick 8. It's just personally Rankine is my favourite draftee. If I was Carlton I'd take Rankine at pick 1.
Jonte
Guest
If I am GC, I am taking Lukosius at 2 and Max King at 3. That leaves Rankine at 4, who the Crows try to trade for, but if not will still be taken by the Saints if there is no deal. At 5 Port take Rozee. That leaves brother King at 6, who GC take after bidding on Blakey. If Saints take Ben King instead of Rankine, Port take Rankine and GC get Rozee. So they get either the two South Australians and Max King, or the King twins and Jack Lukosius. A better strategy?
Ditto
Roar Rookie
Papa Joe, problem with your GC/ Port swap is if Rozee is there at 4, St Kilda will take him. GC will only swap one of 2 or 3 if they are going to do the King twins thing.
Papa Joe
Roar Rookie
Ditto - good food for thought, but I can't see Adelaide doing that because GC could still take Rankine at 3. My sense is that Adelaide are happy with their trading hand of three top 25 selections anyway. On the other hand, if GC decide they want Rozee over Rankine at 3 (for whatever reason), they may look to get some extra value by trading pick 3 to Port for their Pick 5 + another Pick (2nd round or future year). Port will take Rankine and GC still get Rozee at 5, plus another Pick somewhere.
User
Roar Rookie
Beautiful kick on him with excellent awareness, awesome endurance to and being in a settled relationship he would be priceless for the culture at a club that was built on party boys heading to the strip or Byron bay to crack onto backpackers. Was/is a massive loss at Freo compounded by Neale's departure, the best 2 younger players they had imo.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I'm a fan of Weller too - he has an incredible leap on him, and has a lot of confidence with ball in hand. Well worth pick two
Adam
Guest
It is sad that whoever they draft will probably leave within 2 to 5 years .Still don't get why they let Lyons go.
Larry1950
Guest
The bulk of respondents suggesting that the Suns take the King twins seem to have an ulterior motive as supporters of south Australian clubs hoping their big 2 & Rozee are left on the shelf for their home state to pick up. I'd say the Suns have to pick Lukosiuos & Rankine if they don't go as pick 1, then just hope they can build some sort of club success & spirit across the next two years
Ditto
Roar Rookie
Ok, it's time to play the pick swap game. This one involves Gold Coast, St Kilda and Adelaide.How attached are Gold Coast to pick 6? Would they move a little bit down the order if otherwise they strengthened their draft hand. St Kilda have expressed reluctance to move down from pick 4 to pick 8, but would they be prepared to move down to pick 6? Adelaide want to move up the order, but don't want to give up all their draft collatoral to do so. The concensus seems to be that GC will take a South Australian combo at 2&3, the probable candidates of the super 8 available at 6 are one of the King twins and Bailey Smith, Melbournites, but having taken South Australians with their first two picks they may be tempted to add a third, Jackson Hately, a player that could still be taken at 8. Here then is the swap. Adelaide trade out picks 8,16&21. Gold Coast trade out picks 6&29. St Kilda trade out picks 4&46. Adelaide trade in picks 4,29&46. Gold Coast trade in picks 8&16. St Kilda trade in picks 6&21. A possible top 8 would then be. 1. Carlton - Sam Walsh 2. Gold Coast - Jack Lukosius 3. Gold Coast - Conor Rozee 4. Adelaide - Izak Rankine 5. Port Adelaide - Ben King 6. St Kilda - Max King 7. Western Bulldogs - Bailey Smith 8. Gold Coast - Jackson Hately Somewhere in their Sydney match a bid for Nick Blakey, possibly from Port. It's conceivable that Gold Coast could then take Luke Valente at 16 and Jez McLennan at 24. Wow!