The lightly raced, emerging younger horse is on the rise from a Melbourne Cup perspective.
Cross Counter proved himself the outstanding stayer of the field with his second-last-to-first victory, and the only aspect more phenomenal than his blinding finish was the fact it was only his eighth career start.
Like Rekindling last year, the form guide tells us Cross Counter was a four-year-old, but being born in the northern hemisphere he is actually only three-and-a-half, with a foal month of April 2015.
In the early part of this decade, when international horses took a stranglehold on Australia’s greatest race, it was tough, experienced horses like Americain and Dunaden storming home to Melbourne Cup glory.
Americain was a multiple winner and placegetter at 3000m and beyond, while Dunaden was a 3000m winner as well.
The Melbourne Cup is ever-evolving and now it seems that freshness in the legs of a horse might be what is required, a low weight, and of course the ability to sprint well at a longer trip.
Cross Counter hadn’t raced beyond 2414m in his seven career starts before tackling the 3200m of Tuesday’s race.
Rekindling had only nine career starts before winning the Melbourne Cup at his tenth, and had never hit 3000m.
Even Almandin, while winning as a seven-year-old, did so at his 12th start. He had only two starts longer than 2200m before taking out the Cup, and they were wins at 2400m and 2500m in the lead-up.
Almandin (AAP Image/Mal Fairclough)
Protectionist in 2014, probably the most dominant Melbourne Cup winner of the decade, was a pointer to the future. While he had won at 3000m, it had been his only start beyond 2400m, and he took out the Cup at only his tenth career start.
If we exclude Prince of Penzance, who was an outlier for all sorts of reasons, the last four Melbourne Cup winners have averaged nine career starts before claiming the big race, and only one win at 3000m or beyond between them.
Even looking at the finishing order behind Cross Counter of the 2018 Melbourne Cup field, the most lightly raced stayers had the biggest impact.
Marmelo was a fantastic second first-up, finishing much more strongly than he did last year when he was left in front a long way out second-up. He’s now run in two Melbourne Cups in 17 career starts, and will surely be back if he stays sound.
The third horse, A Prince of Arran, was the veteran of the first six horses home, with 28 starts. He claimed the Hotham Handicap on Saturday to win his way into the field, and the winner of that race always seems to run well on the quick back-up in the Cup.
The fourth, fifth and sixth horses home are all extremely lightly raced, and if they stay fit and in-form we can expect to see at least two of them in next year’s Melbourne Cup.
Finche was fourth in his 11th career start, and second for trainer Chris Waller. He’s a three-time Group winner in Europe between 2000-2500m, and it’s easy to think he will get better under Waller’s care and with another 12 months of Australian racing under his belt.
Rostropovich was the other northern hemisphere three-year-old in the Cup this year, and was fifth in his 14th career start. He hadn’t raced beyond 2400m before Tuesday.
Youngstar was rated the best Australian hope heading into the race, well backed on the day, and so it proved in running. She was honest and brave in finishing sixth only 13 starts into her career, and was another to have raced beyond 2400m heading in.
There was a distance query over a number of top fancies in the Melbourne Cup this year, including favourite Yucatan and Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution, as well as four of the six horses mentioned above.
As it turned out, Yucatan and Best Solution didn’t stay the trip, and the younger legs were able to win the day. Inexperience is proving to be a virtue rather than a hinderance when it comes to winning the Melbourne Cup.
paulywalnuts
Guest
After about 200m there was one chance in the Everest...
Aztec Mike
Guest
Michael Walkers ride and A Prince Of Arran's performance backing up in 3 days on a track that according to the trainer "absolutely didnt suit" and a horse that was backing up in 3 days, was outstanding. It would be interesting to see a list of other runners that were affected by the weather conditions, rather than the distance.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
Northern hemisphere horses have their official birthdays on January 1 and our horses have their official birthdays on August 1, the weight for age scale is based on these dates not on the actual birthdates. So You Think was officially a 4y.o. when he ran in the Cup even though he was born less than 4 years previously.
sheek
Guest
Peeeko, Okay, we'll split the difference. There were maybe 6 chances out of 12 in The Everest!
Michael Steel
Roar Pro
I thought Cross Counter wasn't well weighted ( I was wrong_ but Nothin Leica Dane 20 years ago, a 3 year old had 47.5
Steele
Guest
Best analysis I’ve read yet Aransan. We reallly don’t see the best staying horses unless of course we get them at the start of their careers. Lightly run European horses are purposely being held back so that they can hoodwink the handicappers. It’s a smart tactic, but I would like to see the best of the best.
Michael Steel
Roar Pro
Will Cross Counter be like Rekindling who has n't raced since his Melbourne Cup win?
Michael Steel
Roar Pro
Typo. Cross Counter was born/foaled om may 4 2015 3 years and 6 months
Michael Steel
Roar Pro
That Everest / Golden Slipper comparison came out of left field as usual. They're all great races and as I say "Comparisons are such a boring waste of time".
Michael Steel
Roar Pro
Cross Counter was born/foaled on May 4 2015 # years 6 months.
Kangas
Roar Rookie
Exactly peeko
Cameron Rose
Expert
I think if Best Solution was a true long distance stayer he would have had a crack at it before now. Clearly a high class horse, it would be interesting to see him at a WFA run over two miles I suppose.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I will admit, they do seem to get in pretty easily.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
A northern hemisphere 3y.o. in November is 2 months short of its 4th birthday, one of our 3y.o.s would be two months short of their 4th birthday in June. The Melbourne Cup for them would be like one of our horses running over 3200m in June.
Papa Joe
Roar Rookie
In my view, it is just the connections beating the handicapper - and good luck to them. It was the same with Rekindling last year. Identify the right horse, qualify at the minimum, don't expose it too much to the handicapper and then you're in with a great chance to pick up $4m. It is why Rostropovich had its Oz 'trial' in the Cox Plate against Winx (they wanted a run, with minimal chance of getting a weight penalty).
peeeko
Roar Guru
there was about 10 chances inthe Everest and all were Group 1 quality horses. the favourite wa s$7
Aransan
Roar Rookie
The northern hemisphere three year olds can only be regarded as being lightly weighted if you consider the weight for age scale to be too generous for them. Our horses have a birthday on August 1, northern hemisphere horses have their birthday on January 1. Cross Counter and Rostropovich were born on 5/4/2015 and 3/2/2015 respectively. If they were weighted on our scale as though the Cup was raced in June then they were given 4.5kg under weight for age with 51kg. Yes, they do appear to be lightly weighted if you believe they are the equivalent of our four year olds.
Scuba
Guest
Marmelo hadn't run since August. It was the third horse (A Prince of Arran) who ran on Saturday.
Jim
Roar Rookie
It missed the start cause it had my hard earned dough weighing it down! A massive run all things considered - 300 out I thought it may have a chance to run on and run a place, but didn't have enough juice in the tank. A massive run nonetheless and a great horse. Would hope its given another chance at the cup if its on the radar next year - with more even lucky and a better run in transit, it would certainly be a chance. Maybe doesn't quite have the brilliance needed at the need of 3200, but a fantastic run nonetheless after such a horrendous beginning.
Chris Love
Roar Guru
Nice article. I think the “lack of experience” leading to performance at the Cup comes down to one thing-weight. Yes Cross Counter hadn’t raced beyond the mile and a half but had won at that distance and how many times do we hear it said the Caulfield Cup 2400m is the best indicator of form going into the Cup? Add the “lack of experience” to its age and it meant that it was always going to carry very little weight. Add to that a ton of rain making the track heavy and you have an advantage for the lower weighted horses who should have had more petrol in the tank when the time came to turn the speed on. I have to wonder how much backing up from Saturday’s race took out of Marmelo? Being that Cross Counter won’t be weighted anywhere near as lightly next year and Marmelo will unlikely to race three days before, I wouldn’t mind betting that Marmelo would beat Cross Counter next year. So hard to pick this race.