Over the next few weeks I will be looking at the contenders and pretenders for the 2019 NRL season.
Now obviously player movement is still possible and a coach or two may jump ship, but with the current information available let’s look at each team and see how their 2019 is shaping up.
Broncos
They lose a wealth of experience in the middle with the retirement of Sam Thaiday and losing Korbin Sims (Dragons) and Josh McGuire (Cowboys). While they do boast an impressive crop of young talent in the middle. They are going to be tested when coming up against the best packs in the game.
While their backline doesn’t stand out when compared across the competition it could be worse. Darius Boyd is well past his prime and injuries have the potential of cutting his season short. Having Jack Bird coming back fit will give them a boost but where he will be played is another question.
Their lack of depth for 6, 7 and 9 and a relatively inexperienced pack will challenge them. While everyone is jumping up and down for the coach switch to happen now. Broncos fans should pray to their holy ones that Wayne Bennett remains, as I can’t see Tony Seibold doing better with this current squad.
Expect: Moments of individual brilliance from Milford and Roberts.
Surprise: Any improvement on their ladder position from 2018.
Verdict: Pretenders
With uncertainty around who will be at the helm for 2019 and way too much experience lost in the middle. Realistically it is very hard to see Boyd standing with Provan-Summons Trophy in hand come the first weekend in October.
Coach Wayne Bennett looks on (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
Raiders
NRL’s so close but so far story for the last few seasons, the Raiders already have taken a huge blow for 2019 with the loss of Jordan Rapana, combined with Blake Austin heading over to the UK.
As good a player as Josh Hodgson is, this may be a challenge too big even for him.
The English invasion continues in the nations capital with the former Wigan hardmen Josh Bateman and Ryan Sutton joining the ranks. Their forward pack never really seemed to be the problem in recent seasons.
This pack can go toe to toe with most but it’s what comes off the back of that is where the real questions are to be asked.
On their day the Raiders boast one of the most exciting backlines and have the potential to hurt any team at any moment from anywhere on the park.
As mentioned the loss of Rapana for the early parts of 2019 will limit their ability to do so. Aidan Sezer and Sam Williams will need to find consistency. Both have shown glimpses in the past.
Jarrod Croker of the Raiders (AAP Image/Lukas Coch)
They will need to find that sustained run of form that can help turn those tight loses into tight wins and push their way into the top eight. If they get there, money will be elsewhere.
Expect: A few nominations for try of the year.
Surprise: A deep run into September.
Verdict: Pretenders
They might be pleasing to watch when in full flight but a lack of big game experience will ultimately bring their run short if they do manage to find their way into the top 8.
Feel free to share your opinions on the two teams featured today. Have we got pretenders or contenders?
Rob
Guest
"The Raiders attack can perform despite their halves combinations." Sorry Geoff but this is why the Raiders don't win IMO. The kicking game of the 7 and 6 along with the lack of direction to finish sets and close out games is exactly why they didn't finish in the 8. If you look at the top 8 teams they have the primary kicker (first receiver) gaining 250 plus meters a game. The Rabbits scored the most points and Reynolds (380m) led the comp in average kick metres? Milford, Cronk, and Hunt were just behind averaging over (320m). Thurston (173m) finished 20th on the average metres gained kicking list and the Cowboys looked terrible. Morgan and Coote were missing and the field position wasn't achieved. Compare Cronk's win percentage to JT's and can see the effect good kick metres have on the results. The Cowboys made the 2017 GF on the back of Morgan going to first receiver and kicking more than 300m per game. In the Semi finals against the Eels and Roosters Morgan averaged over 400m. The Bulldogs also started to win more consistently when Lachlan Lewis (330m) took over the first receiver duties. Unfortunately/fortunately Hodgson was the leading kicker Raiders doing a Cameron Smith impersonation with the boot.
Big Daddy
Guest
With the young set of forwards and the return of gillett Brisbane could be anything. Its their backs that hold the key to their success. If Milford and Roberts fire and bird can reach his potential don't write them off.
Nat
Roar Guru
Don't get me wrong, I rate Rapana as high as any winger. I'm saying it's not a fair comparison solely based on last year. When they were both fully fit, Rapana earned his spot in the Kiwi team but so did Kahu. Even with the depth of Rapana, Vatuvei, Maumalo, Kata, Hurrell, Hiku, DWZ all available IN '16 and '17 Kahu was still a auto selection for NZ be it on the wing or centers.
Emcie
Roar Guru
Everyone gets moderated mate, you only see them after they get approved. Some words just automatically get picked up.
JOHN ALLAN
Guest
So, let's clarify. Other bloggers refer to McGuire as a grub & their comments are published. I referred to his hair pulling exploits & you are dilly dallying over my wording.
JOHN ALLAN
Guest
After an Origin game last year, McGuire said "losers have meetings. Winners have parties". Hope he enjoyed his meeting after The Dragons ended their season. Problem was he couldn't get close enough to pull Tariq Sim's hair to prevent him from strolling across the tryline!
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Have to disagree with your asessment of Jordan Rapana Nat. His record stands for itself. 23 tries in 2016, another 21 in 2017 plus Dally M Winger of the Year. A bit quieter in 2018 with 10 tries but plenty of bullocking work out of defence, big metres gained and helped create a few tries as well. He'd be a walk up start on the wing for the Kiwis if fit.
Ghost Crayfish
Roar Pro
Oh yeah don't get me wrong, Bateman is quality and along with being a good back rower, can also cover centre (which they do need cover for, going on last year's selection of Soliola out there after Croker got hurt). I just think they maybe could have thrown the dollars elsewhere - the back row isn't really their biggest issue, halfback is... So yes, if they can somehow grab Shaun Johnson it'd be a brilliant thing. Even Ricky Stuart would struggle to find excuses if he has Johnson at 7 next to Seizer - they'd surely be a serious premiership threat if they can grab him.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
John Bateman is a mate of Elliot Whitehead's who was probably instrumental in convincing him to play here. I've only heard good things about Bateman. Voted best player for Wigan this year, helped win two ESL titles in a row, nominated for Man of Steel in ESL this season, England incumbent ... so I can understand why they wanted to recruit him. He could end up being the recruit of the year. I suspect Bateman will play at lock with Tapine and Whitehead in the back row and Soliola, Papali, Sutton, Guler and Lui sharing up front. Plus Knight, Murchie and Horsburgh as back up. I'm pretty comfortable with that. But I hear what you are saying about the halves. With Hingano missing as back up for the halves for at least the first six weeks they need to find someone. Plus they need another back to cover for Rapana's long term injury. Not sure where they going with those. There have been rumours about Shaun Johnson but that could be for 2020. If they can somehow squeeze Johnson in for 2019 both Ricky and Don Furner deserve a medal.
Ghost Crayfish
Roar Pro
Totally agree with this assessment. Releasing McGuire is a ridiculous move by the Broncos, given the lack of experience and work rate in the Broncos forward pack. At Canberra, they've taken a different but equally strange approach... they already have two international edge backrowers - not sure why they need a third? Bateman is a really good player, but unless they're planning to move Whitehead to 13 I don't understand the need for him. If they were so keen to buy out a Wigan player's contract, I reckon they should have looked at their five-eighth George Williams instead. He's a fair bit better than either Seizer or Williams.
Nat
Roar Guru
For sure I'm, not saying he's a stand out but you have to acknowledge he has been a more consistent footballer than both Rapana and DWZ and that has earned his starting spot in the NZ team before both of them. Most of Rapana's and DWZ caps came during the WC last year. To say they kicked the door down for for selection is true but convenient considering Kahu couldn't make a case due to injury. But for a broken jaw, who's to say he doesn't have a season like Isaako (highest point scorer in the NRL), RTS plays FB and DWZ may not make the team let alone captain. It's all speculation but I'm saying it's not a fair comparison because ones not playing, then plays out of position when he does return.
Knight Vision
Guest
When considering the Broncos one should always take into account referee Sutton and the 7 day turn arounds. Worth at least a few wins right there - which is what its designed to do, get the Broncos into the 8.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
well,the difference is theyve all developed high into quality footballers over the last couple of years who have kicked the rep door down..based on ability,theres no way Jordan,even with a fully functioning iron groin would displace them now..a 'solid contributor',yes thats him..
Nat
Roar Guru
All of whom have been available for years while he was in the NZ team. He chose to sit out the WC for his groin injury. Broken jaw takes him out of contention for the mid year test. With a full season, Isaako may never have come through or Hiku, Beale or possibly Marsters. That said, like the NZ team, the Broncos now have options in all positions but that's not to say he wasn't a very solid contributor for the last few years.
Back of Bourke
Guest
"While their backline doesn’t stand out when compared across the competition it could be worse." Oates (Queensland winger) Roberts (NSW centre) Isaako (NRL leading point scorer) Bird (NSW player before he got injured) Milford (Qld) If that fails to stand out, you must have insanely high standards.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Got a run against New Guinea this year in the PM team...acknowledging your bias JK could be as fit as a fiddle and not trouble that stock,Rapana Isaako or Fusitu’a..nor Manu or Masters,RTS comes back then DWZ has to come in smewhere,anyway,couldn’t possibly hold his spot in front of any of these..seems the Broncos aren’t going to stand in his way if he’s got options..Staggs,Roberts,Oates,Isaako,totally understandable..
Nat
Roar Guru
When did Townend don the Aust jumper? Was it a PM X111? Acknowledging my bias, prior to his bad injury run this year, Kahu is an above average winger and solid goal kicker. As Emcie said above, if not for his injuries this year he may still hold his test jumper. Which is no small feat considering their available stock.
Fraser
Roar Rookie
Good riddance Moose. He's a grub on the field, and a tool in real life. Broncos aren't a better team in 2019 than they were in 2018. I don't see any improvement unfortunately. I think Macca has to change his game or go. His lack of dynamism kills the electric backline. Milf and Niko need quick ball on the front foot.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Plus McGuire accumulates at least 3 or 4 grub acts per game. I wonder if anyone keeps any stats on grub acts e.g. elbows or face palms to the head of the opponent to slow the play the ball. McGuire is a good player but you'll know what I mean when you get to play the Cowboys.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Yeah,but keeping it real Chad Townsend and Sione Matautia are both Australian reps,so dont know if that holds much weight in Kahu's case (not talking about Isaako he looks to be something special).. Nikorima,having made over 70 appearances in the NRL and around 10 at international level takes him well out of the rookie arena you'd think..good luck to him,lets hope the new coach can add further to his skill development..