This is the 14th of 19 articles looking at the meta-results for both team and players, as collected from ELO-Following Football’s wide range of sources.
Presenting the Richmond Tigers.
Back in 2017
The team finished third with a home-and-away record of 15-7 and a percentage of 118. After finishing 13th the year before, this was a shocking development and, in and of itself, would have made a successful season.
More remarkably, of course, they finished the season on a hot streak, following a demolition at St Kilda’s hands in Round 19. They went on to demolish Geelong, beat GWS, and crush Adelaide in the Grand Final 104-60 for their first flag in 37 years.
The expectations for the team
Were high, but not sky high. Averaging all predictions, Richmond was the consensus fourth choice, behind fellow Grand Finalist Adelaide and the two Sydney clubs.
Readers of The Age and our own Adelaide Docker both projected them to finish first, however, as did FMI and The Arc.
Coming into the season, the players who were considered to be in the top 50 in the league by the AFLPA and or The Roar included Dustin Martin (top five), Alex Rance (top ten), Trent Cotchin (top 25), and Jack Riewoldt.
In 2018, the team finished
With a minor premiership in hand. They went 18-4 and, from the end of April, looked like the team to beat even when the Eagles sat next to them on top of the ladder for a while.
They were cruising, and the chances of a Tigers repeat were actually lower than the odds of their defeat.
So, what did end up happening to them in September, anyway? I can’t seem to recall…
It’s been…
More than two seasons since the 13th placed team didn’t advance to the grand final the next year. Collingwood did it this year, Richmond in their premiership run last year.
Before that? Melbourne was 13th in 2015, and took the next three years to get close.
It’s been five seasons and counting since the minor premiers won the grand final – that was the first of Hawthorn’s three-peat, back in 2013.
It’s been 26 seasons since the Tigers matched this 18-4 record: their minor premiership in 1982. However, they lost in the grand final to Carlton that year, so that may not be an ideal parallel to reach for.
According to our patented “ELO-Following Football” rating system, Richmond ended 2017 as the highest rated team, and so they began 2018 the same way, with a rating of 77.8 entering week one.
They dropped below 70 after three games, rose to a season high of 84.3 after a week seven demolition of Fremantle, and spent the rest of the year hovering steadily atop the board between ratings of 75 and 82.
The only time they’ve dropped out of the top spot? Round 23.
After a narrow victory reduced their own rating to 72.5 and Geelong beat its second straight opponent by a century, the Tigers fell to third place (behind the Cats and Melbourne).
After September, both grand finalists had passed them as well and left the Tigers in fifth over the summer.
While they usually started around third or fourth, the Tigers quickly ascended to the top of every one of the other ranking services we subscribe to, somewhere between the fourth and seventh rounds, and universally stayed there ever since.
That said, Geelong and Melbourne have caught them in a couple others besides ours.
Nobody else has them as low as fifth – FMI and The Arc, in fact, still have them first.
Across the spectrum game-by-game expectations
Final record: 18-4
Betting Line expectations: 20-2 – but with a lower percentage than they actually had!. They were underdogs against Adelaide in Round 2 and Port in Round 12 – both games they did indeed lose.
ELO-Following Football forecasts: 21-1. Adelaide was favoured in Round 2 – by one-tenth of a point.
AFL.com.au game predictions: 21-1 – all except West Coast’s victory in Round 13 at Optus. Say what you will about the Tigers, but they rarely lost the games they weren’t supposed to.
The Roar predictions: 20-2; individual totals came to 100-21.
“Pick-A-Winner” predictions: 17.5 – 4.5
The Age forecasters: 21-1; individual picks totalled 225 and 39.
BetEasy “CrowdBet” percentages: 20-2.
My own game-by-game predictions had them losing Round 2 to Adelaide – they did – and Round 3 on a hunch to Hawthorn.
The Tigers. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
They won that, and I then picked them to win the next 21, including the preliminary final against the Magpies. I’d pick them in that game again.
What was their best game of the season?
It depends what you like. They had dominating wins – the Round 4 110-17 record-breaker against Brisbane, where the Lions didn’t score a major until late in the third, the 110-37 rout of Fremantle in Round 7, or the 114-43 demolition of Essendon in Round 11.
They also had victories against top teams – not just the qualifying final win against the Hawks, but the 26-pointer over Sydney at the end of June and the 47-pointer over Adelaide at the beginning of July. Their victory over Melbourne in April was the last Demons loss for the next two months.
But for me, the game I’ll remember will be the late-season victory over Geelong 85-82, where the Tigers had to withstand a ferocious challenge from a veteran club unafraid of any MCG hoodoo that Richmond might have had.
Kane Lambert, Alex Rance, Jack Riewoldt, Toby Nankervis and, of course, Dustin Martin were all up to the task of beating the Cats for the second time within the same season. It was the first time Richmond had done that in 35 years, and the Round 20 victory pretty handily sealed their path to the minor premiership, something that also hadn’t come to Richmond since 1982.
Which game would they most like to erase from memory?
Is there any doubt? The back six will be seeing Mason Cox in their nightmares until they face and beat Collingwood again in 2019 – and maybe longer.
I’m no pro athlete, but one stereotype of champions is that they remember the lost opportunities for a title much more vividly than the victories.
If we were to speak of the club in as many words as they had wins in 2018
“As long as adding Lynch doesn’t have the same effect as adding Ablett did for Geelong, they’ll be fine.”
Meta-player of the year results
1. Dustin Martin – 478 points (3rd overall) Also first in points during finals for Richmond.
Best & Fairest finish: 3rd; ironic, since he was in the top three overall for Following Football, and most other viewers. The 2017 Brownlow winner also received 19 votes this year, most on the club and sixth most in the league for 2018 – a noble defense of his award.
Last year’s result: First, of course, and also the 2017 Meta-Player of the Year. In 2016, he was first on the club and ninth overall.
Notable games: An unbelievable twelve games of note: five dominant (Round 1, Round 2, Round 4, Round 18, and Round 22), one prominent (Round 17), and six notable games (Round 5, Round 6, Round 16, Round 20, Round 21, and Round 23).
Noting the gap of games not on this list in the middle of the season (Round 7 through Round 15), when he was merely excellent rather than phenomenal, it’s not hard to wonder “what if”. All-Australian Rover, ELO-FF Top 22, First-Team Midfielder.
2. Jack Riewoldt – 320 points (15th overall) Third in points during finals.
Best & Fairest finish: Won for the second time in his career at Richmond. Was also equal third on the team in Brownlow votes with ten.
Last year’s result: Fourth in both 2017 (74th overall) and 2016 (107th overall).
Notable games: Three dominant games (Round 15, Round 18, and Round 21) and one prominent game (in Round 23, when there was a Medal out there to win). He had a notable game in Round 9 as well.
All-Australian Full Forward, ELO-FF Top 22, First Team Forward. Won his third Coleman Medal as the league’s leading goalkicker, following scoring titles in 2010 and 2012.
Jack Riewoldt of the Tigers. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
3. Alex Rance – 251 points (34th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Sixth.
Last year’s result: Second in both 2017 (14th overall) and 2016 (20th overall).
Notable games: One dominant game, in Round 3, and a notable game in Round 7.
All-Australian Half-back, ELO-FF First Team defenceman.
4. Trent Cotchin – 234 points (43rd overall) Equal fifth in points during finals.
Best & Fairest finish: Seventh. Received ten Brownlow votes, equal third on the team.
Last year’s result: Third in both 2017 (31st) and 2016 (56th).
Notable games: Three dominant games (Round 3, Round 8, and Round 10) and two prominent games (Round 4 and Round 6).
All-Australian 40-man roster.
5. Josh Caddy – 230 points (46th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Tenth.
Last year’s result: 11th.
Notable games: Two dominant games (Round 8 and Round 10), one prominent game (Round 20), and two notable games (Round 11 and Round 21).
All-Australian 40-man roster.
6. Shane Edwards – 220 points (49th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Fourth. Received seven votes for the Brownlow medal, fifth on the team.
Last year’s result: 19th.
Notable games: Two dominant games (Round 11 and Round 19) and one prominent game (Round 16).
All-Australian interchange midfielder.
7. Kane Lambert – 195 points (56th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Second. Was also second on the team in Brownlow votes received, with 12.
Last year’s result: Eighth.
Notable games: One dominant game (in Round 5) and three prominent games (Round 7, Round 15, and Round 20).
All-Australian 40-man roster.
8. Nick Vlastuin – 114 points (98th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Eighth.
Last year’s result: 12th.
Notable games: One prominent game, in Round 15, and two notable games in Round 8 and Round 13.
9. Dion Prestia – 89 points (139th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Not in top ten.
Last year’s result: Tenth at Gold Coast.
Notable games: One dominant game, in Round 18. It seems certain that the Tigers figure to get many more in 2019 from Prestia.
Dion Prestia of the Tigers reacts after kicking a goal. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
10. Jayden Short – 88 points (142nd overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Ninth.
Last year’s result: 21st.
Notable games: None.
Richmond had eight top 100 players and 13 top 200 players in the 2018 ELO-FF meta-rankings. Averages would be 5.5 and 11, respectively.
Honorable Mentions
David Astbury – 80 points (12th place). One notable game, in Round 19.
Dylan Grimes – 79 points (13th place). Second place in points during finals; was fifth in Best & Fairest voting; was also voted Best Clubman for 2018. Had one notable game, in Round 22. Was on All Australian 40-man roster.
Jack Higgins – 49 points (equal 15th place). Equal fifth in points during finals. Recognized with the AFL Goal of the Year.
Toby Nankervis – 86 points (11th place). One dominant game (Round 6) and one notable game (Round 23).
Daniel Rioli – 31 points (22nd place). Fourth on the team in points during finals.
Player movement during the trade period
In: Tom Lynch (Gold Coast). Having snagged the most dominant forward on the market since Lance Franklin surprised the world going to Sydney half a decade ago, they were done.
Gone: Purging – Reece Conca, Corey Ellis, Sam Lloyd, Anthony Miles, Tyson Stengle. None of which were in their top 18 players once Lynch arrived.
Current list of draft picks: 17, 37, 64, 68, 74, 92. Basically their normal draft.
2019 list highlights
Backs: David Astbury, Nathan Broad, Brandon Ellis, Dylan Grimes, Alex Rance, Jayden Short, Nick Vlastuin.
Midfielders: Trent Cotchin, Shaun Grigg, Kane Lambert, Dustin Martin, Kamdyn McIntosh, Dion Prestia.
Rucks: Toby Nankervis.
Forwards: Liam Baker, Dan Butler, Josh Caddy, Jason Castagna, Shane Edwards, Jack Higgins, Tom Lynch, Jack Riewoldt, Daniel Rioli.
Forecast for 2019
What could be more formidable than a team which, a; was the most powerful and successful team during the 2018 home-and-away season, b; added the top free agent of the off-season, who happens to perfectly fill their only real weakness, and c; will be playing 2019 with a chip on their collective shoulder knowing how they wasted the 2018 campaign in one bad game in September?
If Richmond doesn’t win the premiership next year, it’ll be because the injury bug left GWS and landed at Punt Road.
RT
Roar Rookie
A bit late with the reply I know, but wanted to respond to a couple of points. On the injury front, Richmond did cope well with some significant injuries during the year, however the worst of it came at the end of the season, whereas the health of Collingwood’s list was probably at its best come finals time (and perhaps the same applied to West Coast, though I am not sure). More significant is your opening point which I largely agree with and I have said similar things about Adelaide in late 2017 to anyone who will listen. Essentially Richmond were not in great form going in to finals and had not had a hard game for a long time. In 2017 they had to play very well in the last few rounds to make top 4 and they were in top form, so there is much to be said in favour of a hard finish to the season. Tigers have some tough games at the end of the season this year, but with Carlton and Brisbane in rounds 21 and 23, plus the bye it is not ideal going in to finals. I don’t agree with the “depth” being cleared out for Lynch comment. With the exception of Conca those players were all players who couldn’t make the side in 2018 or appeared too slow when they did. They all wanted to leave to get a better chance of playing weekly and I can’t argue with that. But back to your injury point, it does pose the question of how will Richmond cope with the next level of developing players coming in to the side in case of injury. Because they could be worse and maybe they are looking at developing these players with Lynch in the side for a tilt at 2021 more than 2019. It will be interesting to see if some of those developing players start getting games ahead of Townsend, McIntosh, Ellis, Houli and Grigg. In terms of Richmond having an easy draw, this is according to Champion Data which are not too transparent in their ranking. The papers used to rank more crudely just on ladder positions for double up games and in that regard Richmond’s draw is considered one of the harder ones.
Gerry
Roar Rookie
Yes I meant the revenge for the thrashing Richmond gave Fteo. The successes of yesteryear refer to the “powerhouses” of the clubs in the AFL era of which Richmond is not one and so have no real bragging rights for their fans to rate them as the greatest AFL side on the planet of which they are not. I am not writing them off but Richmond fans really need some perspective.
Tim
Guest
Richmond are very good. Their game plan needs to change to rely more on the quality of the players that they have rather than relying on teams wilting under unrelenting pressure. They lose if teams don't wilt, like those away games, or they don't bring the unrelenting pressure like in the prelim. If they adjust well they are good enough for top four in 2019.
J.T. Delacroix
Guest
“I think Freo will be out for revenge”?! For what? An absolute thrashing is all I can recall. Similar to what Essendon copped at Dreamtime. WCE & Collingwood obviously warrant great respect, but I’m not sure where you’ve plucked some of those other would-be challengers from. You then ramble on about other clubs’ successes of yesteryear as though it’s somehow relevant now.
Cat
Roar Guru
Richmond’s game plan is too simple. Pressure, pressure, pressure. When it came time for finals and another side was able to ratchet theirs up the Tigers had no more to apply. Richmond will remain ‘in the mix’ but they aren’t the unbeatable juggernaut that some on here spent all of last year trying to convince people they were.
EaglesMan
Roar Rookie
Agreed Peter, i think the Dees, Pies, Tigers, West Coast and the Crows are all a good shot next year. I cannot pick a premier at this time. However the tigers if Lynch stays fit are going to be hard to beat
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Right, well Nankervis definitely needs some help from Lynch in the ruck. How does he go in the ruck big Tom? Can he ruck?
Slane
Guest
Nank the Tank.
Gerry
Roar Rookie
Pete makes sense. Richmond will do well again in 2019 but their interstate games need work. Collingwood took them apart in the prelim although Dusty clearly not fit. Lynch is a great player and will do them well. They will have much tougher games against all of Melbourne, GWS, Collingwood, North, Essendon, Eagles and I think Freo will be out for revenge. It will be exciting to watch but I am concerned about the arrogance of their fans after one premiership and a minor to follow up. If you look at the powerhouse teams of the AFL era (since 1990), Richmond barely gets close. They are hardly doing a Hawthorn who in their three peat time were formidable andthe Brisbane of the early 2000s. Collingwood needs a mention as to their sheer consistency of finals appearances in the history of the game. Essendon and Carlton less so as during the AFL period have not been able to sustain their dominance. If they were up to that level yes they would be a team to be feared. I predict them to finish 4th and will miss GF.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
WHo is The Tank Milo? Is it Alex Rance?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
The Tigers should be around the mark but there were a few indicators toward the end of the season that their real psychological dominance was perhaps waning. Close wins against Essendon, Geelong and the lowly Bulldogs interspersed with a soft win against a pathetic Suns outfit finished off the season. It appears they peaked a bit early. They also had a bad interstate record in 2018. The MCG winning streak focus was no doubt an annoyance to Dimma as it was all heading to the streak ending at the worst time, in a cut throat final. Playing a clearly hampered Dusty and a sick Astbury in the Preliminary final didn't help. They are still a beautifully balanced side though, have somehow been gifted a pretty good 2019 fixture and added arguably the best young forward going around (unless Hogan takes off at Fremantle). They have had a pretty good run on the injury front though and unless their conditioning staff have some kind of magic elixir, at some stage the luck on the injury front will average out and they have had to clear out a lot of depth players to accomodate Lynch. The two grand finalists coped with significant injuries on their path to the GF. We are yet to see if the Tigers could cope with such. There is also a formidable side they would need to get past who will add Gaff and Nic Nat to their squad who are no longer afraid of the G. IMO the Tigers could well do a Geelong (2007,2009, 2011) and hit alternate flags yet could also drop to 4-6th if some injuries bite.
Milo
Roar Rookie
I think the prediction of premiers in 2019 is a little ambitious. We need to do a lot and for a lot to go right, to win it next year. The last few games of 18 told a lot about the mentality of the players, especially comparing to a similar period the year before. While we stormed into the finals in 17, in 18 it was more a limp in or easy-as-you-go in. You got the feeling they thought they could turn it on again when it mattered. Arguably perhaps they had a right to but footy doesnt usually play out like that. Realistically the GCS game was a turning point. Never challenged and playing against a dispirited group the Tigers won by 12 goals with Jack kicking 10 and being spoon fed for a few unlike most of Hardwick's tenure and even his creed of sharing it around. If the 2017 team played that same GCS team at comparitive time of the season i think the winning margin wouldve been closer to 24 goals. We limped home doing just enough to beat Esserdon and the Bulldogs and then played one and a half quarters against a Hawthorn side that was favoured by the draw to finish fourth. When the end came in the PF the button couldnt be found given it hadnt been used for some weeks - probably the last time against the Magpies in Round 18. It will be interesting to see how the new look Tigers go with Lynch upfront and Jack more upfield. They will need to lift again from the mediocre finish to 2018 if they are to take a place in the 2019 finals in my view. We also need to find probably two or three players that 'come from nowhere' to play solid to starring roles. Players from the group of Garthwaite, Menadue, Bolton, Markov, Callum-Jones, and one of the coming draft. Players who are really facing scrutiny this year include Houli (Shorty has passed him long ago) Grigg & McIntosh (there are better kicks) who should all face unrelenting pressure from these others to give up their spots. Lastly, what happens if the Tank goes down is the unspoken question to which there is currently no answer. Collingwood, WCE, Melbourne, Essendon, Hawthorn, Sydney already look strong challengers for the 2019 flag. Collingwood has the bigger collective chip on the shoulder than Richmond having led the 18 GF for 99% and certainly has the talent. There is talk that the WCE are setting themselves for a history-making B2B and Melbourne is loaded with strength and talent. Its difficult to write off the Cats and Giants, but they will find the going tougher again. Of the risers, perhaps North keeps going up and the Lions will certainly improve again. Roll on 2019 and Go Tigers.