With the 2018 AFL National Draft imminent, it is timely to assess the club holding the coveted number one pick and the options the Carlton Football Club is presented with.
Let’s first consider Carlton’s recruitment strategy and list management decision-making since it last won the premiership in 1995. Since then the side’s win-loss ratio has been less than impressive and its appearance in finals series has been notably low.
Understandably, even the most faithful Blues supporters are frustrated with the lack of on-field success. while there are many elements that define a successful club and a myriad of reasons why a club might not achieve the ultimate success of winning a premiership or even making finals, it is hard to argue that Carlton’s recruitment strategy and decision-making in regard to list management hasn’t significantly contributed to its lack of on-field success.
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Since enjoying the sweet taste of victory from the premiership cup in 1995 Carlton has released notable players from its list who have gone on to play elsewhere to great effect. Here are just a few examples from recent years:
- Josh Kennedy (West Coast Eagles).
- Eddie Betts (Adelaide).
- Shaun Grigg (Richmond).
- Sam Jacobs (Adelaide).
- Zach Tuohy (Geelong).
- Bryce Gibbs (Adelaide).
- Lachie Henderson (Geelong).
- Jarrod Waite (North Melbourne).
(Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Equally damning is the recent lack of success of recruiting and choosing successful draftees. Let’s take a look at some of Carlton’s first-round picks since 2009:
- Kane Lucas (2009 – pick 12).
- Matthew Watson (2010 – pick 18).
- Josh Bootsma (2011 – pick 22).
- Troy Menzel (2012 – pick 11).
- Kirsten Jaksch (Traded for 2014 – pick 7).
- Blaine Boekhorst (2014 – pick 19).
Even the most lenient judges of football talent would agree these players have not lived up to expectations and therefore must be considered as poor recruiting decisions.
The combined result of key players exiting and first-round draft picks not reaching anywhere near their potential displays poor list management and recruiting over the past decade.
And so here we are, 23 years since the last taste of ultimate success, and the Carlton Football Club again holds in its possession a valuable asset. What an opportunity it has to potentially establish one of the best midfields in the competition and climb its way up the premiership ladder.
If we are to believe the bulk of recruiters, this crop of young men is the best since the Super Draft of 2001 and draws comparisons in the talent available. The No.1 pick is considered a clear standout as the best player in the TAC under-18 competition.
So when it’s reported that Carlton is considering swapping the No.1 pick for two picks in the top ten, you can’t help but wonder whether Carlton fans will still have the blues for years to come. Could such a decision really propel them even faster to success?
History shows that Carlton’s decision-making is not strong in this space. They often get it wrong. However, their most recent picks, such as Patrick Cripps, Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Zac Fisher and Paddy Dow are showing promising signs of being elite players over a long period.
Recruiting is not an exact science and there are no guarantees, but some clubs have a history of doing it better than others. The Carlton Football Club are in desperate need of midfield support for Patrick Cripps, Ed Curnow, Zac Fisher and Paddy Dow.
Sam Walsh, the player most recruiters consider to be the No.1 choice, is a ready-made AFL midfielder and looks destined to have a sustainable future at the elite level. If Carlton were to forgo this opportunity, they may be left with only key position draft options of which they already have a well-stocked supply.
Carlton should retain the No.1 pick and choose the best midfielder from the best crop of midfielders since the super draft of 2001. Perhaps then Carlton fans will be enjoying blue skies for years to come.
Macca
Roar Rookie
I think the crows have a win as well Peter - the deal is a win win with both teams getting what they want. Benig able to add an 11th first round draft pick from the last 4 drafts and build our midfield depth by essentially fast forwarding 12 months is a great move by SOS.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Macca, we won't really know until the next couple of years. Crows fans think they had the win too.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Blues wanting to head back to their glory days with big Nic, a fiery young Robert Walls and a young fella called Ted Hopkins who played at 68KG. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8e2tJ5iaesQ
Macca
Roar Rookie
I must say so far I definitely don't have post draft blues - I think SOS had yet another win.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Every kid says they weren't told and the aFL dictated that every club had to take their 5 minutes from what Josh said last night,
Macca
Roar Rookie
"yeah forward pocket can be like that though Macca" That's my point though, I would prefer the blues take the bloke who has been consistent running through the middle.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
From this I would conclude Walsh wasn't told by Carlton that he would be pick 1: http://www.afl.com.au/video/2018-11-22/walsh-stoked-to-land-at-carlton (copy and paste into your browser). The other indication was the delay in SOS nominating Walsh, time was given in case someone was prepared to make an adequate offer for Carlton's pick 1.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
It will be interesting to hear what Walsh has to say after he is drafted. I am sure Clubs want to maximise the theatre on the night, and would Carlton preclude another Club from making a ridiculous offer? It can be embarrassing for Clubs at the best of times, I understand Essendon told Rory Lobb that they were going to take him with pick 26 (?) but when Zac Merrett was still available at that point they changed their minds after a delay that was obvious. Reading the tea leaves would tell you that Walsh is going to Carlton. I thought I read a recent article in the herald-sun (agh! -- it was someone elses) that said that Walsh had had little recent contact with Carlton.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
yeah forward pocket can be like that though Macca. The kid is probably aching to get some time on the wing or half back but he was just so dangerous forward. If (and it is a big if) Jamie Elliott comes back Jaidyn might rotate wing and high half forward at least.
Macca
Roar Rookie
He still had 8 games this year with single figure possessions and just 4 with more than 15. It will be interesting to see how he develops, he does have some real talent.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Shane Rogers, he is now Brisbane Lions WA and SA Recruiting Co-ordinator
Paul D
Roar Guru
I didn't mean the comparison between Rankine and Martin as a glowing endorsement. It's just a statement of what I believe to be the case. The Suns have specialised over the years in drafting skinny half forward flankers with loads of talent and gone nowhere with it, ultimately Martin never got enough of the ball or had the robustness to stand up to week in week out footy. If the Suns draft Rankine I would call that a mistake. They won't retain him for long, and alone, he won't help them win games of footy
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
That's a fair point Col. When adding depth trades from other clubs that don't cost much (apart from their salary cap space), there will always be hits and misses.The Pies post 2011 became obsessed with replacing the Leigh Brown role and went nuts going for players like Jesse White, Patrick Karnezis and Quentin Lynch. We even had a real crack at ex Demon Mitch Clark who thankfully we lost to Geelong. None cost much really and were worth a shot. It just took a while to realise that Leigh Brown was quite unique and couldn't be replaced. It is worth having a crack for these types of players as every now and then you unearth a gem like Jeremy Howe.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Macca, who was your list manager back in 2014 and what has happened to him?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Pies drafted on talent alone with Jaidyn Stephenson. Worked ok so far? I guess to be fair Stephenson could of and still probably will play a number of positions.
Rec Reliever
Guest
Ray Romano with another burning topic. If the blues were offered and rejected 3 & 6 then you'd have to question SOS and the Club. Surely GC aren't dumb enough to throw away an additional pick in the top 10 - especially in this draft.
Truthseeker
Guest
Have to entirely agree with this sentiment. Don't like drafting on talent alone (Menzel). Take the high quality ready-made mid on offer and get on with it.
Macca
Roar Rookie
I have been told by family friends of the Walsh's that they were told weeks ago.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
I don't believe Walsh has been told by Carlton that he is going to be taken with pick 1, and that is the way it should be. He will find out with the rest of us tonight and hopefully it will all be great theatre.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
I think you could find a year or two at every club where their draft choices have been busts. I agree though that before SOS returned to the Blues our draft choices were very poor. I can’t bag SOS’s predecessor for picking Cripps. Our draft selections over the past 3 years have been very good and SOS has done a great job in getting the picks which have enabled him to get the likes of Curnow and McKay. Sure some of the players traded in from other clubs the past few years have not worked out but some of them were mostly added for depth and not as regular senior players. We also did not give up much for them. There is no way that Gold Coast give up to top 6 picks for pick 1 in this draft. If they did I am sure we would not hesitate to accept it. Walsh is the stand out player for the Blues if we are looking for a professional young man who will give you 250 games plus of very good football.