Test cricket over the last few years has followed a pattern rarely breached by the travelling teams.
England’s win over Sri Lanka was phenomenal, but it was barely an aberration than a norm in world cricket today. India’s favourites tag is merely a reflection of the kind of mess Australian cricket finds itelf in rather than the ability of the men in blue in this format.
The Indian team went into this year with an opportunity to win on both their overseas tours, but except for few flashes of brilliance, they came back empty-handed. The reasons for those defeats were muddled selections and a lack of consistency in batting. All the issues India had in England and South Africa are still valid on this tour of Australia.
The Australian team have their own problems, but we need to consider that they are playing at home. The Australian batsmen normally do well on home pitches.
Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh and Peter Handscomb have great records in Australia. The inexperienced players will also be more confident at home as opposed to in Asia. The bowling attack of Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Nathan Lyon and Pat Cummins will be lethal in these conditions as they all have amazing records at home.
For India, though, the team combination is still a big question mark. They have selected three openers, and two of them have been in patchy form. Murali Vijay was dropped after the first two Tests in England and has not played Test cricket since. KL Rahul, who scored that brilliant hundred in the final Test in England, has been poor either side of that innings.
(AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade)
The Indian middle order of Cheteshwar Pujara and Ajinkya Rahane have been largely inconsistent overseas, and the young Rishabh Pant is still a rookie. The No.6 spot is up for grabs and is a battle between the inexperienced Hanuma Vihari and the frustratingly inconsistent Rohit Sharma.
India’s captain and arguably the best batsman in the world, Virat Kohli, is India’s strongest batsman and has been consistent in all formats this year. He is probably going to be the difference between the two sides and will hopefully he gets better support from the rest of the batting line-up than he did on the previous two tours this year.
Bowling is probably India’s strongest suit, but the combination is still something they might have to decide upon. With Hardik Pandya missing, India might have to play Bhuvneshwar Kumar to lengthen the batting a bit, as the rest of the pacers aren’t good with the bat.
India obviously have a chance, as the one thing they have over the Aussies is experience. Most of the players in India’s XI have been playing Test cricket for more than five years now and some of them are on their third tour of Australia. The team also has a bowling attack that has a combined total of 1110 Test wickets between them.
All said and done, the Indian bowling has largely struggled in Australia. Even though Mohammed Shami and Umesh Yadav have taken fifers on their past visits, India’s best spell by a fast bowler in the last two decades remains of that of Ajit Agarkar in Adelaide in 2003. The spin bowlers haven’t had a great time either – except for Anil Kumble’s fantastic 24 wickets on the same tour of 2003.
When we consider the above facts, we are looking at two completely flawed teams battling to get on top over the next six weeks or so. This series will be a close one, and I will put my neck out and say that the Aussies will start as slight favourites just because they are playing at home.
The Indian team has a chance, but lots of things needs to go right for them to emerge victorious. It is not impossible, but they aren’t the favourites.
Kopa Shamsu
Guest
Giri, on the back of his 1 ODI series performance i added 2 test series performances too. It is not about ODI or Test,it is his consistent pattern of failure in those matches i was talking about,same elements that is going to be present in upcoming series. Last time he had a great series. Not only him, last couple of years Australian pitches has been run fest ground. Almost all indian batsman had centuries last time. Vijay averaged 60,Rahane 57. Even Ross Taylor scored double ton in australia a couple of years ago. What is so special about those except it is quite evident the pitches were highway road. If your success or failure is consistent than a pattern can easily be drawn regardless of it is ODI,T20 or Tests.
Giri Subramanian
Roar Guru
Why are we talking about his ODI performances for Tests? Also how does it matter if he did not score runs at home against Australia? He has been brilliant in Australia on his previous 2 tours and nothing suggests that he will not have the same amount of success this time as well. He will do well and I expect him to score at least couple of hundreds. The batting around him is the worry.
Giri Subramanian
Roar Guru
Well ranking is just math and India have accumulated enough points to remain on top. There is no clear cut best team in the world. The one thing we need to hand it to India is that they have been brilliant at home against all comers. No one except Australia in 2017 were able to challenge India in India. That is the only reason they are at the top. To be frank, if England continue their current resurgence, they might as well become the best team in the world soon. They are probably the only team in recent years to win a series in Asia among non-Asian teams.
Tanmoy Kar
Guest
You are right, in addition to that their second best batsman Prithvi Shaw got injured, now they have open with two out-of-form batsmen in the First Test.
Kopa Shamsu
Guest
Let him score some runs against some quality bowlers in his own backyard. He averaged 30 against South Africa, no need to mention what happened against Australia, in last ODI series in India he had 1 50+ score in 5 match. I would love to see him score some solid runs instead of getting dropped nicking it straight to slip. Even if same road is dished out as previous tour, I am still not sure he can average 40 around this time. Not against 3+Lyon.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Actually, most of the Indians in this side seem pretty average against spin, relative to their predecessors. I'm pretty sure that's been noted by various commentators around the world. On Shaw, from what I've seen he has the same issue that Steve Smith used to have against spin - no problems technically, but gets himself out to it a bit.
Paul
Roar Guru
Why?
Paul
Roar Guru
Khawaja will step up and get a heap of runs( I hope)
Paul
Roar Guru
So if India can't be favourites as you suggest, should they be classed as the best team in Test cricket?
Kopa Shamsu
Guest
If kohli is the key to India's success, then India is already out of the series.
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
One-all in fact.
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
Fair points but I think you’d still have to favour India because Australia’s batting is so weak. While the general rule about teams not doing well away from home is true, it often goes unnoticed that South Africa has done pretty well over the last ten years away from home winning several series, including 2 each in Australia, Sri Lanka and New Zealand, one in England plus two draws vs Pakistan in the UAE and one draw in India. It’s true they were flogged 3-0 on their last try in India in 2015, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen pitches that were doctored worse to favour spinners from day one than in that series. (I’m not Sth African by the way.)
Matt H
Roar Guru
This is S Marsh’s time to take a series by the throat. If that happens Australia win. If it doesn’t I’m not sure where we find enough runs to put India under pressure.
Giri Subramanian
Roar Guru
India can never be favourites outside of Asia unless they are playing West Indies or Zimbabwe. Indian team has all the problems you mention above. Except for Virat kohli none of the batters are secure of their place in the X1. If we examine how the English tour went, India dropped Pujara for the first Test playing Vijay, Dhawan and Rahul together in top 3. Then in the second Test they dropped Dhawan and played Pujara, Vijay and Rahul. In the third they dropped Vijay for good and went with Dhawan and Rahul. Ajinkya Rahane who should have been the main stay of the batting line up also isn't a certainty. He may be replaced by Vihari or Rohit if he fails in couple of innings. Pant is a Rookie, in the absence of Hardik, India might not be able to play 5 bowlers like they did in England. Overall both teams have issues. Australia come on top in spite of their troubles is because they are playing at home. Indian batting isn't reliable and the bowling well they will be Tested on wickets which don't offer them any movement. They have done well in England and SA but again those pitches were very bowling friendly. But Starc, Hazlewood, Cummins and Lyon will bowl brilliantly at home. I am not saying India cannot win, they can but I still feel this is 50/50 series. One good innings or one good spell from an Australian player will turn the series around and India normally aren't a great team when they are down.
Paul
Roar Guru
Giri, I think you need to re-examine the facts. The first and obvious one is India's world ranking versus Australia's. We are where we are for a reason. The second is the unavailability of two of the best batsmen in world cricket. The third is a completely revamped team playing a settled team. The fourth is confidence levels; Australia has struggled in all forms of the game in the past 9 months and it's batsmen in particular are playing very inconsistent cricket. Right now, no-one can predict what sort of score we should get from this lineup, because it is completely untested. The fifth is the Kohli factor - clearly the best bat in world cricket and with a batting lineup who can destroy most attacks on their day. These 5 points alone mean India MUST be favourites leading into the First Test. Whether they remain that way throughout the series is another matter entirely.
Nudge
Roar Rookie
Very surprised you think Shaw plays spin very poorly. Not many Indians don’t play spin well. Haven’t really seen him play much, but I did watch a little bit against the West Indies. He looked horrible against the short ball on a flat track with not much bounce. I’m sure the Aussies would have noticed that
AREH
Roar Guru
Yeah I wouldn't be claiming a favourite for this series altogether because it's going to be that tight. So much reliance on Khawaja who is Australia's best bat by a mile, but also S.Marsh given his Shield form and regular purple patches at home. Likewise India with Kohli, because a lot of their batting is either horribly out of form or not half themselves away from home. I'd suspect how well Australia can curb Kohli's influence will be the obvious key point, because if he piles on the runs similar to last time, advantage India. I'm expecting both sides to win at least a test each, and hopefully we get to Sydney with everything still on the line.
Kopa Shamsu
Guest
I think some things are overtly blown out of proportion. I can remember ,going to WC15 semi all were talking about india taking 70 wickets in 7 matches all the stuffs, only to be comprehensively beaten in semi. Coming to this series, after watching t20,i said india would struggle in test and struggle badly. None of indian batsman who is a chance to playing in first test,did that well against a D string aussie bowling attack. My belief has just got stronger after watching first day of this practice match today. Another thing,about prithvi shaw. All the talks about him, he seems good against pace,but he will make even aussie batsman look good playing against quality spin.
Mitcher
Guest
They certainly won a test at the WACA in the series Harby called Symonds a monkey. Believe India also won two tests in Steve Waugh’s last series in Australia. 2-2 I think.
Kandeepan Arul
Roar Rookie
It will be interesting to see what sort of pitches are dished up during the series. Nonetheless I couldn't resist the $2.55 that beteasy were offering for Australia to win the series.