How deserved is England's Ashes favouritism?

It’s too early to talk about the Ashes, isn’t it?

After all, the first Test at Edgbaston is the best part of seven months away, there is the small matter of something called the World Cup to be contested first – and England are playing dreadfully.

There’s plenty more water to flow under the bridge before the old rivalry begins its next chapter.

There’s the return of naughty boys Steve Smith and David Warner (the odds on protagonist number three, Cameron Bancroft, making an international return must have lengthened somewhat as he hardly gets a mention these days), at least a couple more opening batsmen having a go for England and the finale of the rather drawn out Big Bash.

Australian captain Steve Smith chatting to the umpires. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

And we shouldn’t forget a plethora of short video clips of ‘sledging’ which is actually just two blokes talking, the odd catch in a nondescript Twenty20 tournament billed as the best there’s ever been until the next one and another team-talk in all but name for somebody from Geoffrey Boycott.

But The Ashes? Oh hang on…

With the aforementioned World Cup occupying a number of weeks in prime-time English summer, the Barmy Army’s inevitable barracking – well, at least how that it should start until the effects of alcohol consumption kick in – of Steve and, primarily you would think, Dave is going to come around a lot sooner than you might imagine.

Unless my information is incorrect, Tim Paine’s upwardly mobile side don’t play any Test cricket until August 1 in Birmingham and England have only a dead rubber in St Lucia this weekend and the visit of Ireland to Lord’s in late July before they attempt to make it five home Ashes series victories on the bounce.

That really isn’t a great deal and if talk of the Ashes is prevalent a year or so out when there are other white-clothed distractions, it stands to reason that it should increase in volume as the time shortens and attention assumes a narrower focus.

So what to make of what’s coming?

Just a few weeks ago, as England were getting the better of Sri Lanka on the sub-continent by playing the conditions accordingly and reaping the rewards. Australia were coming second to India on home soil as they sold a good attack short by utilising a batting order not really fit for purpose, the curves were heading in opposite directions.

As we stand now, with Australia giving their attack plenty to work with, scoring runs by (would you believe it?) placing round pegs in round holes and wiping the floor with Sri Lanka – and England not playing the Caribbean conditions accordingly and getting their hides tanned – those curves are rapidly converging.

As a rule, things are rarely as good or bad as they are made out to be. Strip back the hyperbole and you will see a more accurate picture.

England haven’t become a poor side overnight even if a couple of known weaknesses have been glaringly exposed by Kemar Roach et al. Australia’s issues haven’t been completely solved by two comprehensive victories. But of the two I reckon it will be Paine rather than Joe Root who is the most content at this moment in time.

A simple comparison between the respective top orders provides the evidence as the bowling of both sides should be pretty much as expected.

In Australia’s case, add Smith and Warner to what’s already in situ and everything appears a lot more rosy than a short while ago. Joe Burns should, if those picking the team have any sense, get a decent run against the new ball, Travis Head looks the part and on first impressions Kurtis Patterson is a good find.

Kurtis Patterson of Australia bats during the three day International Tour match between the Cricket Australia XI and Sri Lanka at Blundstone Arena on January 17, 2019 in Hobart, Australia. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

Add to the equation Usman Khawaja who still has plenty to offer and the aforementioned returnees, who will walk straight back into the side, and there is enough to be positive about.

As for England, until their top three is sorted there will be issues. Rory Burns has shown some promise but so have a number of those who preceded him and that ultimately counted for very little, Keaton Jennings included, and there isn’t a lot more in the cupboard.

Jonny Bairstow could make a decent number three if he tightens up a bit but if returns to the wicket-keeping role, as seems likely at some stage, then he will almost certainly move down the order.

That leaves only one realistic candidate for first wicket down and that is Root. He wants to bat at four, his team needs him, as comfortably their best player, to bat at three.

It’s, you would think, fairly obvious but often those involved could do with a detached perspective. Round pegs in round holes and all that.

Come the summer, England will start as favourites. Their strong home record will see to that and Australia have visited, and been defeated, with stronger teams than the 2019 vintage, but it’s not as clearcut as it was.

And anyway, they’ve got to see off Ireland first.