The Carey conundrum

Just over four months remain before the first ball of the 2019 World Cup and it is difficult to recall the Australian One Day International cricket team ever having so many question marks hanging over it leading into a major tournament.

Can Aaron Finch regain form in time to take his place as captain? Will David Warner and Steve Smith return to the line-up?

Can Glenn Maxwell continue to bat at seven with so little firepower below him?

Can Mitchell Starc reprise his role as a new ball threat? Who are Australia’s first choice pacemen? Should they consider playing two spinners?

Important questions, all, but arguably the most pressing query is: should Australia persist with Alex Carey?

It’s easy to see why the selectors like Carey. He’s busy at the crease and tidy behind the stumps. He’s also vocal on the field, speaks well in front of the cameras and, by all accounts, is popular within the playing group – traits which shouldn’t come as a surprise, given Carey’s former role as inaugural captain of the GWS Giants in the 2010 TAC Cup.

Just about the only missing ingredient is a breakout performance with the bat for his country.
In his nine ODIs to date Carey has compiled 246 runs at an average of 27.33 and a strike rate of 76.3, with a top score of 47. In 19 Twenty20 Internationals he’s scored 125 runs (from 13 innings) at 13.88, with a strike rate of 123.76 and a high score of 37 not out.

Not awful numbers, but not noteworthy either.

Carey’s modest start to his ODI career is in keeping with his overall List A record. Across his 34 matches he has accumulated 963 runs at 28.32, with a strike rate of 76.36 and a top score of 92. His domestic average and strike rate are remarkably similar to his current ODI numbers.

Alex Carey of Australia leaves the field after being dismissed during the International Twenty20 match between Australia and South Africa at Metricon Stadium on November 17, 2018 in Gold Coast, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

In the BBL, Carey has fared better. Over the last two seasons with the Adelaide Strikers he has built a strong stat line: 23 matches, 772 runs, an average of 36.76, a strike rate of 132.52 and a top score of 100. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated into international T20 success as yet.

The problem is not limited to Carey’s output with the bat. If that were the case, it would be a simple question of substituting one wicketkeeper-batsman for another.

No, the situation is complicated by the fact that Carey doesn’t have anything resembling a settled position in the batting order. In his 28 internationals to date – consisting of nine ODIs and 19 T20Is – Carey has opened (five times) and batted at five (six times), six (five times), seven (five times) and eight (once), not having been required in the other six matches.

Each time Carey is moved around the batting order the rest of the line-up also gets shuffled, to the detriment of other players still trying to establish themselves or refine their own role in Australia’s line-up. Those players either move up or down the order as required, or are dropped to make way for another batsman coming into a different position.

While none of this is Carey’s fault, such movement is hardly conducive to consistency for Carey or his teammates in the lead-up to the World Cup.

On the basis of his two best ODI innings so far – a patient 47 against South Africa in Adelaide in November and a run-a-ball 42 in Hobart the following game – Carey looks most suited to the middle order. From limited opportunities he has shown an ability to either rebuild after early wickets or keep the run rate steady and support a set batsman.

On batting alone, though, Carey wouldn’t be Australia’s first choice to play this role. The ODI incumbents at four, five and six – Shaun Marsh, Peter Handscomb and Marcus Stoinis – have been some of Australia’s best performers of late and won’t be making way for Carey any time soon.

Even if one or more of them was to be shuffled up or out of the order, it seems likely that Maxwell would simply push up to bat at 6. Mitch Marsh, Travis Head and the injured Smith are all waiting in the wings, too, each of whom could slot into the middle order and all of whom own ODI and List A records superior to those of Carey.

Carey’s BBL success has come at the top of the order, with the field up and space to hit into. Logic suggests that this might be his position in the national setup, even factoring in his modest returns in his first five attempts at opening the batting.

However, despite having opened in all three of the recent home ODIs against India, Carey probably sits behind Aaron Finch, Warner, D’Arcy Short, Marcus Stoinis, Usman Khawaja, Travis Head and Matthew Wade in the current pecking order as a pure opener.

That leaves the role of finisher. Although very capable of clearing the fence, nothing about Carey’s career to date suggests he has the power game to regularly find boundaries late in an innings with the field spread. Australia is crying out for a big-hitting number seven or eight to slot in below Maxwell but Carey doesn’t look to be that player.

If Carey were to be dropped altogether then the obvious solution would be to give the gloves to Handscomb and bring in another batsman. Warner (or perhaps Short, while Warner is unavailable) could simply slot in at the top, requiring minimal reshuffling.

Alternatively, Khawaja could be bumped up to partner Finch at the top, where he is arguably best suited, opening up a space in the middle or lower order for Smith, Mitch Marsh, Head or Wade (who could also take the gloves).

In either of those scenarios the batting line-up suddenly looks stronger than anything served up in ODIs this summer.

One factor that might give Carey a reprieve is the long list of recent leadership casualties. In the last 12 months alone, whether due to poor form, injury or suspension, Smith (all formats), Warner (all formats), Tim Paine (ODIs), Mitch Marsh (Tests), Josh Hazlewood (Tests) and now Carey himself (T20Is) have all been left out of an Australian side while occupying the role of captain or vice captain.

Alex Carey was a rare bright spot against South Africa. (Giuseppe Cacace/AFP)

Throw in the omissions of current and former Test co-vice captains Head and Mitch Marsh from the latest ODI and T20 squads, as well as uncertainty around the positions of skipper Finch and co-vice captain Pat Cummins in Australia’s ODI starting XI, and it’s easy to see why the selectors might be hesitant to drop Carey at this point in time.

But if the selectors are going to drop Carey before the World Cup then they need to do it now. There is no point persisting with Carey, only to axe him on the eve of the tournament. The rest of the players – particularly Handscomb, should he take the gloves – need the opportunity to feel settled in their roles before they head to England.

It is difficult to shake the feeling that Carey has been elevated into the ODI team because the selectors see him as Australia’s next Test wicketkeeper (despite a first class batting average of 29.43) and want to give him international exposure via limited overs cricket.

In isolation that might be fair enough. With a World Cup around the corner, though, they simply can’t afford to be taking the long view.

Either Carey is currently in Australia’s best ODI XI, or he isn’t. The time to make a call is now.