In less than three months, the 2019 Cricket World Cup will start. Listen to the fans’ tips, and England are the overwhelming favourites, followed closely by India.
This tournament is the 12th edition of the World Cup. The World Cup has grown over the years from the eight-team between 1975 and 1987, nine teams (including South Africa for the first time after the apartheid ban was lifted) in 1992, 12 teams in 1996 and 1999, 14 teams in 2003, 16 teams in 2007, then 14 teams again in 2011 and 2015.
The 2019 World Cup only features ten teams, with every side playing each other in the round-robin format. The top four teams enter the semi-finals and winners progress to the finals.
The host nation has only won three out of the 11 World Cups, in 1996 (Sri Lanka), 2011 (India) and finally Australia in 2015. The huge upset World Cup triumphs have been India in 1983, Australia in 1987, and Pakistan in 1992.
ODI cricket has been dominated by England and India for the last two or three years, often compiling scores above 350 in the first innings or chasing a similarly mammoth total in the second.
England has talent that bats very long and some late-order hitting by Jos Buttler, while India boasts Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli, meaning both teams can confidently chase any total.
Australia has not been having a good time in the ODI format, and currently is only ranked fifth in the world. With the suspension of Steve Smith and David Warner, and with Aaron Finch out of form, there are many questions with their squad. The 15-man squad on the plane to England will be decided after the current tour of the subcontinent.
David Warner will return to the Australian fold before the 2019 Cricket World Cup. (AAP Image/David Mariuz)
With this year’s edition having a smaller number of teams and each team facing each other in the round-robin group stage, the first task is to get into the top four and qualify for the knock-out matches.
A minimum of six wins is required to reach the last four, or the team with highest run rate on five wins will qualify as the last team in the semi-finals.
My prediction is that the norm of 350-plus scores will not happen too frequently in the tournament. England has never won any World Cup before but is a three-time runner-up.
History may be pointing against England, although the hosts can be encouraged that Sri Lanka won in 1996 out of nowhere and India triumphed in 2011.
The winner of the World Cup will depend on these four factors.
1. Dark horses: Teams like West Indies, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka on their day can upset against some formidable opponents.
2. Australia: They have won the tournament a record five times out of 11, and the experience of having won the tournament before will help the current squad.
3. Slow-burners: Teams can start slowly and grow better throughout the tournament, such as Pakistan in 1992 and Australia in 1999.
4. Improvement: Since this is a two-month tournament, teams may be able to do some fine-tuning at the start of the tournament after one or two losses and time their run to reach the semi-finals. And who knows? One of the dark horse teams could string together two victories at the vital stage of the tournament to be the winner.
With swing conditions dominating the tournament, my take is team batting first will build its first innings total towards 280, and with good bowling attacks, that score will be enough to defend.
If Aaron Finch can regain his form, and the bowling attack of Jhye Richardson, Mitch Starc, Pat Cummins and Adam Zampa fires, then Australia will chase smaller totals batting second, or restrict the opponent from scoring a big total.
If Starc and Cummins can set the tone by taking quick wickets bowling first up, teams will struggle to make 250 and Australia can chase it down quickly.
Timmuh
Roar Guru
The signs were there in that tri-series. It was really only the bigger grounds in Australia that made it a strategy that din't quite hold up. That said, it was still a surprise given the strength of Australia at the time. But not a huge shock like India 1983 or Australia 1987.
Dutski
Roar Guru
OK. Here's the formula: 1. Take the team's current ODI world ranking 2. Divide by number of bowlers in World Cup squad who average over 30 3. Multiply by number of batsman in squad who average over 40 4. Add the average number of runouts per match in ODI format 5. Rank teams in order of lowest number (winner) to highest. So it looks like this: Winner = [((Current ranking)/(bowlers av >30)x(batters av > 40)) < other teams] Plug those numbers in and you have your winner. Does it work? I have no idea, but someone asked for an actual formula, so there we go.
Tanmoy K
Guest
Mark you have forgotten to mention the darkest horse of the Tournament, Afghanistan!
The Bush
Roar Guru
Mark, I don't think Sri Lanka came out of nowhere in '96. They had developed the very successful technique of going hard in the first 15 overs. It possibly only came to full fruition at the tournament, but they weren't minnows in ODI cricket by that point and had reached the final of the tri-series in Aus the summer before (though we smashed them in the finals). At least that's my memory that it wasn't that big of a surprise, though Aus were still favourites for the tournament. England's attempt is looking a lot more shaky, but I think it's a bit early to say that we're not going to see these big scores (just yet). Let's see what the wickets and warm up games produce.
Paul
Roar Guru
I'm still waiting to read the formula that decides the WC winner!! "My prediction is that the norm of 350-plus scores will not happen too frequently in the tournament". Why not Mark. The top 4 sides in the tournament are all totally capable of doing this most days and others sides like the Windies can easily do so if Gayle gets a start. I'm also not sure why we're not rated as dark horses at lest for this tournament. Three months out and we have not got close to settling on a squad and have a record that is frankly embarrassing. The only way we'll a) make the finals and b) go any further is if other sides fall in a heap (which is not likely) and we have a huge amount of luck go our way. India are clearly the side to beat in this tournament though I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an upset result.
Joshua Kerr
Roar Guru
Australia’s ODI performances in England over the past few years have been terrible so I would be surprised if they got to the knockout stages. They were knocked out of the Champions Trophy in the group stages in 2017 and were whitewashed 5-0 by England last summer. I do like your prediction of Bangladesh being the dark horses as they got to the semi-finals of the Champions Trophy, beating New Zealand in the group stages. I have to disagree with you on your point of teams batting first targeting 280 as I think 300 is absolute minimum as a par score, although even 300 can be low in some games. England are more than capable of setting a high score in the right conditions (and have done so many times at home). I think with only 4 teams making it through to the knockout stages, there will be a massive upset somewhere.