A principle of philosophy is that ‘not to go forward is to go back.’ Applied to rugby this principle requires successful teams to improve if they want to remain successful.
The experience of Ireland in this year’s intense Six Nations tournament is an example of how remorseless this principle is when teams lose confidence and their results begin to fall away.
And, as a counter to Ireland’s fall from grace, we have the rise and rise and rise of Wales.
It is difficult to accept that only a few months ago Ireland defeated the All Blacks in Dublin and the team was positioning itself to become the number one side in world rugby.
Just as success tends to create further success, failure tends to becoming self-fulfilling.
What was in coach Joe Schmidt’s mind to opt for the roof of the Millennium Stadium to be open when rain was predicted and duly came to make the field slippery and ball-handling under pressure difficult?
Ireland has built its game in the last few years around a seemingly endless re-cycling of the ball followed by the bomb until a penalty or a line-break is forced.
The wet conditions hindered the way Ireland played its re-cycling game, rather as if someone had flooded a Rolls Royce engine with water.
As a consequence Ireland dropped the ball on numerous occasions, made mistakes in the set pieces and put themselves under such pressure that the usual automatically accurate play of Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray broke down with sloppy passing and inaccurate kicking.
(DAMIEN MEYER/AFP/Getty Images)
I would argue that Schmidt’s decision to allow the elements to somehow dictate how the game was going to be played, forcing an arm-wrestle rather than a free style wrestle, was an admission that his team needed bad conditions to somehow work as a leveller for both teams.
As it was, Ireland struggled from the beginning of the Test and were never really in the match after the kick-off which saw their catcher bundled into touch on the 22.
You can usually work out the mental state of a player, especially a leader like Sexton, from their reactions when things go wrong for him or his side.
Sexton displayed anger several times in the match, at himself and his teammates, when mistakes were made.
When a playmaker gets angry, the team is in trouble. The more trouble a team is in, the more a playmaker needs to be cool, calm and collected.
One of the reasons Sexton was so angry, an anger born out of frustration admittedly, is that Ireland only really have a Plan A. If the re-cycling plus bomb game breaks down, there is no Plan B to go to.
(Photo by Charles McQuillan/Getty Images)
Towards the end of the match, for instance, when Ireland were 25 points behind, Sexton was still continuing with Plan A, which admittedly resulted in Ireland scoring a try at the end of the Test.
Under Schmidt, Ireland have won three of the last five Six Nations titles and had 23 victories in 26 matches.
But there are clear signs that Ireland, or more importantly its best players, are nowhere near as good now as they were last year.
It will be a test of Schmidt’s coaching for him to somehow present a side in Japan that has new elements to its game that take some of the predictability out of Ireland’s play.
I would add one further point about Ireland, Wales and England and their Rugby World Cup 2019 chances.
None of these teams are generally as impressive playing away than when they are at their home fortresses.
Warren Gatland admitted that when his side beat France at Paris to start their 2019 Six Nations campaign, he knew they would win the tournament.
Wales played England and Ireland at Cardiff. The atmosphere of nationalistic fervour there has to be experienced to be really understood.
It is one of the great experiences in rugby to witness Wales playing at home with the singing, the noisy, intense and knowledgeable crowd, the passion on display, on and off the field, and the way the players in their scarlet jerseys respond to the surging noise of their supporters.
Will Wales, without this emotional support, be able to lift themselves in Japan, and will the hwyl be created by the players when the atmosphere will be that of an away game?
We come now to what all this might mean for coach Michael Cheika and his Wallabies who confront a confident and successful Wales side in the pool rounds of the 2019 Rugby World Cup tournament.
The basic problem for Cheika is that since their finals performance in Rugby World Cup 2015, the Wallabies have become progressively worse in their play and, consequently, with their results.
There are a couple of reasons for this. The Cheika game plan seems to be stuck in the same groove as in 2015. And although he has selected numerous new Wallabies, the core of the team remains essentially the same.
In an era of intense scrutiny of players and tactics, these factors mean that the Cheika game plan and the way his players try to carry it out have become so familiar to opponents that the ways of successfully combating them are now well-known.
At the beginning of every year, the All Blacks coaches, as a consequence of how game plans are rapidly dissected, work out a new game plan. Their old game plans are actually given to all the New Zealand Super Rugby coaches.
(Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
I would think that Scott Johnson, the new Wallaby selector and coaching guru, will insist on a new game plan and new players.
And judging by Scotland’s magnificent fightback at Twickenham against England the game plan will be more expansive and less structured than the Cheika model of the last four years.
England were 31 points ahead, with four tries in the first 30 minutes, before Scotland started to come back and force a 38–38 draw.
Scotland’s tenacity and ability to make adjustments on the fly were impressive.
If Johnson can help instil these qualities into the 2019 Wallabies things might turn for them, as they have for Wales.
In terms of selection, I think the jury is in on the bulk of the Waratahs Wallabies. Yes, the Waratahs made the finals last year. But they got there with fewer points than the team they played their home final against, the Highlanders.
There are just too many of the senior Waratahs/Wallabies who are not performing for their Super Rugby side at the level that senior players should be setting.
Let’s name some of them.
Kurtley Beale, Bernard Foley, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Sekope Kepu, Ned Hanigan, and Michael Hooper.
I have never been able to understand why the chief executive of Rugby Australia Raelene Castle offered Hooper a new five-year contract.
She should have learnt from her rugby league experience with the Canterbury Bulldogs that long contracts like this kill off growth in a club, and end up being wastefully expensive.
(Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
Hooper is a good player, more bustling than clinically effective like, say, David Pocock. But he is not going to get any better and his best has never made him a truly outstanding, dominating player.
One of the big decisions that the selectors have to make is who should captain the Wallabies for their Rugby World Cup 2019 tournament challenge. They should give the job to Will Genia who tends to do most of the talking for the Wallabies when he is on the field, anyway.
It is becoming clear, for instance, that the Rebels, Brumbies and the Reds have a contingent of loose and tight forwards that should provide virtually all the Wallabies pack, including most of the reserves.
I want as few as possible Waratahs in the Wallabies this year.
Only one from the team, Israel Folau, and then only as a winger, is (or should be) a certainty to make the run on side.
I can’t see any of the forwards, and that includes Michael Hooper, who can be deemed to be certainties to start in the Wallabies pack.
You had to admire, for instance, the way the Reds came back against the Sunwolves to snatch an away win against a strong, well-coached side.
The equally gritty loss by the Rebels to the Lions playing at home, in a reverse mirror of the Reds comeback, showed that the Melbourne side has improved and is continuing to improve, a good sign for the club and for the Wallabies.
The Genia-Cooper-Meakes link for the Rebels between backs and forwards is the combination the Wallabies have to take to Japan.
I know, I know. I have been generally critical of Quade Cooper. He has been a playmaker who almost invariably over-played his hand and stood too deep to challenge defensive lines.
(CHRISTIAAN KOTZE/AFP/Getty Images)
But he has kept his extravagant trickery under control this year. He has played flat and relied on his skilful passing game to set up tries for his team.
His pop-up pass to a deep runner to set up a Rebels try early on against the Lions was a thing of exquisite skill and effectiveness.
It was this passing game early on in his career that moved me to describe him as the Picasso of the Pass.
When he made a tackle against the Lions, the commentator noted its significance as if it were the rugby equivalent of Halley’s Comet.
This year his coach Dave Wessels seems to have got the best out of him. And Cooper’s best is miles ahead of any other Australian playmaker.
What I take out of the rise of Wales to number two side in the world and Ireland’s ‘capitulation,’ as one reporter described it, is that things can move quite quickly for sides, either moving up the table or down it.
Over to you, Michael Cheika, Scott Johnson and Michael O’Connor.
Crash Ball2
Roar Rookie
If you are unable to discern a single argument in the above, it’s patently not me that requires strong coffee, an Uber and a long sleep in.
Big Dave
Roar Rookie
OK. You were just dismissive to most of what I wrote without actually managing to make an argument, was there alcohol involved? I can't be bothered, you don't want to engage, just take shots.
LifestyleSpecialist
Roar Rookie
I dearly hope we see a change in tactics and personnel. Tactics probably more so as the team last year wasn't completely whack outside a few selection headaches (Foley at 12?). I think there were so many Tahs in the team last year as everyone else was injured or not available! Plus they were the best Aussie franchise so what are you meant to do? This year is shaping up differently however, yet it is early days. I believe Hooper and Kepu will be in the picture. Hooper has had 2 blinders this past 2 weeks. Kepu a slow start but has runs on the board. The rest probably not. Maybe Fitzpatrick as one of the 3 hookers in the RWC squad. Hanigan is better this year but not Wallaby level yet. Dempsey not back to his former levels. Holloway stuck between back row and second row. Kerevi or Hunt are my picks for 12. Hunt if you want a more organised communicative player with a decent distribution game and good on ball skills OR Kerevi if you want more go forward. Outside Genia and Cooper they should go well. 13 is TK by default. Nobody else stepping up now Petaia is gone. AAC probably a bit old now but a good squad member. Hodge and Folau the wings with DHP or Banks at 15. Sorted.
soapit
Roar Guru
disagree peter. when someone concedes an unnecessary try through an error that they simply should not be making then and they lose by a penalty then its as close to someone losing you the match as it gets. everyone makes mistakes under pressure and occasionally doesnt nail a tackle or catch a ball and you know theyre human and move on. thats on a different level to coopers error. again thats something that just shouldnt have happened and was solely created through sub par play. he's paid to do all the good stuff so good on him for achieving
Crash Ball2
Roar Rookie
So by your own example, if Larkham wouldn’t / didn’t implement Cheika’s attacking strategy – which much be the case considering he supposedly learnt of backline selections from the press in the week leading up to a match – quid pro quo, how can you then blame him for the absolutely abject Wallabies attacking performance? You can’t have this argument both ways. Criticise the bloke for not towing the line if you like (despite the clear evidence of how correct his supposed stance was), but don’t then blame him for the dog’s breakfast Cheika subsequently deployed. I’m no defender of Larkham (the coach). I don’t think he’s the great white hope for this Wallabies team but I’m not about to sacrifice him at the alter of Michael Cheika as Michael Cheika, Fairfax and RA have done. As HC, Cheika has final sign off on all strategies and selections irrespective of supporting cast. It’s clearly inconvenient to your narrative of blame deflection but, the buck actually does stop with the Head Coach (except, of course, in this eye watering dire administration where bit part players take the bullet). I’m also no defender of Spiro – we disagree often. And he certainly doesnt need, or likely care, about my modest input. Im sure he’ll take your disenchantment under advisement. But in this instance, he needs no defence. The bloke simply isn’t anti-Waratah. If it is confirmation bias you are seeking, I’d suggest a new mirror purchase. I am slightly stunned that there are those ambitious souls still attempting to purport that Michael Cheika selects his teams purely based on merit / performance. Seriously, is that your stance? Even now? At this dramatically late stage and with Cheika’s sole selection status revoked as the final act of an administration trying desperately not to fire their Moore Park posterchild, but also needing to acknowledge the obvious, widely recognised failure of parochialism in his unashamedly poor test selections). 5 Waratahs – or 15 – or 23. It doesnt really matter. You said it yourself: “I want the best players chosen for the Wallabies regardless of where they come from.” Has that been your sincere, hand on heart perception of Cheika’s test selections over the past four seasons? And what a fabulous red herring to throw out. Steve Hanson, Dave Wessels or no one. Bravo sir. Yep, there’s only three test coaches globally, and ditching the worst Australian coach in the last 60 years of test rugby can only warrant a conversation about this ringfenced triumvirate. I applaud your ambition and your passionate regional loyalty. But no ones buying what your selling anymore.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Haha
soapit
Roar Guru
He put on some good try plays as well though from memory. At this point I'd have him penciled in at 8. Good to show what a disaster the last few years have been. Almost no one cemented a position through the whole team
soapit
Roar Guru
That's what I thought.
soapit
Roar Guru
No worries. Definitely don't need help with my grandiose claims
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Fair enough, perhaps I misinterpreted. My apologies if that’s the case. I still don’t agree, but this is all conjecture, so it isn’t like there is a right and a wrong.
soapit
Roar Guru
get a couple of big guys playing well in the backrow with him and he'll suddenly start to look a lot better.
soapit
Roar Guru
fionn that just isnt true. in that the whole second paragraph is false. to be clear i stated 3/4 of nrl players are international standard. i didnt state the wallabies. craig gower in his twilight years made the switch and got a number of games for italy for example. unless you think teams like italy arent test standard. i evidenced this by the not particular standout nrl player rona being international standard based on him......playing internationals. a much too easily achieved standard to make that call on an nrl player obviously. i then said he would likely be picked again at some point. i specifically said he had plenty of guys in front of him.
Chucked
Guest
This brings up the old saying "One Summer does not a swallow make" December we had the European press ecstatic in their praise of Ireland as true world champs - or the best team in the world - because of one (and I must stress This) HOME Victory. Now Irelaned are mde to look second rate, because they don't have a Plan B - Never did. They played the perfect game to beat NZ in Dublin in 2018 - those come along every 10 years. Now lets heap the praise on Wales, all the while Hansen will be loving it
Big Dave
Roar Rookie
I can't be bothered arguing about Spiro any more so yeah, I'll be lazy. I think he used to be a great rugby writer who has become a great axe grinder. When we talk Cheika, it's interesting to see how little anyone wants to critique Larkham, a guy who as a coach has achieved little. The wallabies backs consistently underperformed under him and now we find out that he wouldn't get on the same page as Cheika in terms of backline philosophy. If you want lazy, it's lazy to blame Cheika with a 'the buck stops here' attitude without also tearing a new one for the assistant who wouldn't implement his game plan. I know we all love Bernie, but he needs to be held accountable. As for his biased selections, last year there was an average of 4.5 waratahs in the starting 15 across the 3 games. Most of that was Folau, Hooper, Foley, Beale. More than the other teams but not hugely so, especially given they were the top Australian team. Games 2-4 of the RC saw 2,2,3 waratahs in the team (for 1 win and 2 losses). Foley, Beale and Toomua were all given chances at 10. I know everyone complains that Toomua was limited by having Foley outside him, but the options were limited given injuries. Hanigan barely started last year, Phipps only once. At what point do we accept that maybe we have a bit of confirmation bias going on? Lastly, coaches. Yeah there are better options out there, we should sign Steve Hansen right? In Australia, Wessels looks best but he has a much worse record than Cheika did in SR, so who knows? It's not lazy to state the bleeding obvious, we haven't had a great coach for 15 years, as well credentialled as someone might look it doesn't mean they can step straight into the self interested cesspit of Australian rugby and be successful.
Crash Ball2
Roar Rookie
I don't disagree Spiro could have phrased that singular quote better. But I think most regular Roarers will have elicited his meaning based his sheer weight of work over countless rugby seasons and the changeability of his platforms based on latest information. Spiro is certainly not anti-Tah in any way and you're the very first punter I've ever heard accusing him of that. As for Cheika - the lengthy detail of argument and analysis put forward across numerous publications, by a host of commentators (SME's and armchair alike), is voluminous, exhaustive and comprehensive. The empirical evidence of Chieka's failure - not just on the basis of black and white success rates (which inarguably confirm Cheika as the losing-est Australia test coach of the professional era; and about 30 years prior), as well as masses of anecdotal examples of the blinkered paucity of defense & attack strategy and the illogicality and sheer bloody mindedness of his selections (which itself has had to be addressed by his employer - albeit, in the weakest possible manner) - is formidable. What is lazy is the "oh, you're just a hater" argument. And the "only time will tell" utterance is yet another deferral of responsibility to an already obvious conclusion: there are many, many better rugby coaches than Michael Cheika. He isn't the only cause of Wallabies woes - just the most obvious, direct and quickly changeable one.
Smiggle Jiggle
Roar Guru
Wales game plan. Have a New Zealand 10 and coach.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
I think most criticisms of Cheika are kept very rational and analytical, rather than being unreasonable slurs on his character. Also, for years Spiro has argued for Hooper > Pocock and Foley > everyone, so that doesn’t quite fit your Spiro is anti-Tah theory…
Big Dave
Roar Rookie
I actually have no problem with only selecting one or two Waratahs in the team at the moment. Based on form, I can't think of many who deserve it. But there is no Wallabies team being selected for months, and Spiro could easily have put it as "if the Wallabies were being selected now, I wouldn't select very many Waratahs at all". That's the reasonable way to put it. But Spiro is not reasonable. Spiro is angry and bitter and attacks all things Waratah whenever he puts pen to paper. So I'm quite happy to call him out on it. When he stops acting like a petty child then I'll give him some respect. As for Cheika, I get that the Roar echo chamber hate him which is fine, the Roar thrives on hate. But most of the critiques are lazy, simplistic and nasty and add nothing to the conversation. Does he have his weaknesses? Absolutely. Are there better candidates out there now? Maybe, only time will tell. Is he the cause of all the Wallaby woes? Not by a long shot.
Crash Ball2
Roar Rookie
Spiro’s point is that “I want as few as possible Waratahs in the Wallabies” and “I want the best players chosen for the Wallabies” are in fact, the same thing. It is a statement based on current form and if the next six months provides some dramatic improvement in form / function / execution / performance – that hasn’t been evident from the previous four seasons where such players have been chosen anyway – no doubt Spiro will amend his platform (just as he has done in proposing this platform more recently). The only person being demonised is Michael Cheika and his God awful, parochial, non-meritorious selection policy. Not sure if your mum’s lesson applies. But excluding said Waratahs on both current & extended poor form, is certainly not a mistake but rather a long, loooong overdue correction.
Big Dave
Roar Rookie
My mum always taught me that two wrongs make a right. And if someone doesn't think so, I should demonize one of the parties more to make the second wrong seem righter. Works a treat.