When it comes to expanding the FIFA World Cup to 48 teams, people fall into two clearly defined groups – those who are for it and those who are against it. There’s very little in the middle.
For the record, I am part of the former.
With a growing number of ‘middle-tier’ nations, keeping it at 32 would’ve limited their ability to compete at the highest level, as the qualifying spots went to the more established nations. It gives these nations a realistic target to aspire to, which can help stimulate more investment in facilities, players and leagues which is better for football across the world.
Remember, FIFA’s remit is to grow the game in all corners of the globe, not protect the interests of the elite in Europe, and let’s be clear, it’s from those nations that objections have been the loudest.
But the ham-fisted way FIFA has gone about trying to bring the expansion forward by four years leaves a lot to be desired. But who didn’t see this coming?
The biggest criticism, especially here in Australia, is that expansion will make the qualifying process utterly meaningless and will give the Socceroos an easy path to the World Cup.
But, especially in the case of an expanded 48-team tournament for 2022, that will not be the case.
Of course, Qatar first has to agree to expand the tournament to 48 teams, which would mean having to share the tournament with their neighbours. From all reports, Qatar are lukewarm, at best, on the idea. But FIFA pushes on in any case.
Back to qualifying though.
FIFA has already announced the allocation each confederation would receive, with Asia set to receive eight spots at an expanded 48-team tournament, with the possibility of more coming through the proposed playoff tournament to decide the final two spots.
What FIFA has also announced is that the host nation’s automatic spot would come from the respective confederation’s allocation. If FIFA does get their way in expanding the tournament, it will mean sharing the hosting duties with at least two other countries.
With Oman and Kuwait flagged as the most likely, given the ongoing blockade which makes the likes of UAE, Saudi Arabia or Bahrain impractical.
It’s hard to see either Oman or Kuwait agreeing to host without being given an automatic spot, which is common practice. That would mean of the eight spots allocated to the AFC, three have already been distributed, leaving just five spots to be decided in World Cup qualifying. How it would be if the tournament stays as a 32-team tournament.
When you consider that Australia, only just scraped through qualifying for 2018, had Omar Al-Soma’s free-kick been 5cm to the left, it would’ve ended in heartbreak. On the evidence of the AFC Asian Cup in January, then we can’t consider ourselves certainties to claim one of those five places on offer.
(Photo by Francois Nel/Getty Images)
The competition will only be tougher this time around too.
Bert van Marwijk, who guided Australia at last year’s FIFA World Cup, has just accepted an offer to take over as coach of the UAE. Having masterminded Saudi Arabia’s campaign for 2018, the Dutchman knows what is needed to get the job done and he will make the UAE a much tougher prospect over the next few years.
Let’s not forget, as shambolic as they were under Alberto Zaccheroni, this was a UAE side that defeated Australia at the Asian Cup without their star talisman, Omar Abdulrahman. Now picture them with Omar back in the side and with van Marwijk in the dugout.
Australia battled to get past Thailand both home and away in qualifying for 2018, and all the evidence since points to Thailand having improved even more since then, especially with players like Chanathip Songkrasin, Theerathon Bunmathan and a handful of others making the move to Japan to further their game.
We also saw Vietnam emerge at the recent AFC Asian Cup, and they will only improve over the next few years, while Qatar is now a genuine power at the top of the Asian game.
When you throw in Iraq, who impressed at the Asian Cup and have a strong generation of talent coming through, Uzbekistan, who looked good under Hector Cuper, and who Australia struggled to get past, and perennial qualifiers in Japan, South Korea and Iran then there are realistically any of nine or ten nations who would fancy claiming one of those five spots.
Suddenly the path to Qatar 2022, or should that be Qatar/Oman/Kuwait 2022, no longer resembles the breezy straight road of the Nullarbor that most pundits here predicted, but more like one of those precarious dirt mountain roads you see on YouTube.
Whether it’s 32 teams or 48, fans better start preparing for a white knuckle ride on the road to 2022.
Anthony Ferguson
Guest
There's always a football match on somewhere. One of the great things about the game. Apart from that, I'm really looking forward to Wrestlemania 35. Oh yeah!
Anthony Ferguson
Guest
Without doubt many Asian nations are throwing a lot of money, time and effort into the infrastructure of the game. Something that is just not happening here. If we don't wake up we will be left behind. There was always going to be a time when we didn't automatically qualify for the World Cup. We've taken it for granted since 2006. That day is fast approaching.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
In tracking how Asian teams go against the world's top teams, the WC is the main means by which we do it, you can't really rely on friendlies as a gauge can you? The fact remains, Asian results have not been great the last four world cups. And the Saudis, who are traditionally an Asian superpower, regularly get thumped in the WC.
Bfc
Guest
Last WC...how did Germany, Spain, Portugal go...all erstwhile football superpowers...? Didn't realise the WC was supposed to be "easy"...
Sydneysideliner
Roar Rookie
Let's also picture Australia (hopefully) with a fully fit Arzani, Boyle, Rogic, Leckie, Ikonomidis, Mabil, Nabbout and Borrello all playing regular club football and vying for spots in the Socceroos attack. Add to that Degenek, Sainsbury, Wright and Susjnar all (hopefully) finding regular club football and competing for spots in defence, with Wright potentially in the Premier League (..if Bristol can rediscover their earlier form). And youngsters like Folami, Iredale, Waring, Pasquali, Hrustic, Genreau and Souttar getting a shot here or there. It's good to be optimistic sometimes!
Mister Football
Roar Guru
There isn't really all that much to study. How many Asian teams have made the last four of the WC since 2002? It's not exactly a long list is it? Half of all teams make the knock out stage of the WC, but only one Asian team made it last time out. Yet again, Saudi Arabia got humiliated in their opening game. What exactly am I looking out for?
hogdriller
Roar Rookie
Its OK to be white! Don't know about it being the same for Bogans tho'.
Macroma
Guest
You obviously don’t spend anytime studying Asian football results.
stu
Guest
Redondo, good read. You are making the comment from within a white society. Humans want to be part of a 'group', the predominant group in any society is ethnic in nature. Human nature naturally is protective of the 'group' therefore as a general observation it is axiomatic that all ethnic groups are, when using the harshest word 'racist'. Presenting your argument in our society would gender defence. If used in another ethnic group society, it will gender attack on whites. Historically our desire to be identified as 'our group' has caused misery and death to all regardless of ethnic background. It has always been, and will always be because that is what we are and social engineering will not change that.
Redondo
Roar Rookie
That whites can be racist towards other races is indisputably true, but whether other races can be racist towards whites is highly debatable, particularly in a white-dominated western society such as ours. For example, see: https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/can-you-be-racist-against-white-people-1.3591110 Summary comment... 'A few years ago the academic Robin DiAngelo coined the term “white fragility” to describe how white people have a paper-thin reaction to what they perceive as being “racism” directed at them. For DiAngelo this is because white people have historically been insulated from racial discomfort because they believe their race to be natural and a default setting. Other people belong to a racial grouping, white people don’t; they are allowed to view themselves as the standard measure by which all other races deviate. This she terms “racial illiteracy”. Many white people believe they are “colour blind”: that race shouldn’t and doesn’t matter. It’s a naive view when you consider that how a white person experiences a potential employer, a landlord, a member of the police force or of the judiciary can be in stark contrast to how members of other races experience these situations. A better question than "Can you be racist to a white person?" may be "How much free ammunition have white people given their critics?"'
Beach
Roar Rookie
Seriously Waz, grow up. You're a middle aged professional.
Redondo
Roar Rookie
It certainly saves time thinking.
That A-League Fan
Roar Guru
It actually wasn't a bad performance considering the pitch and the conditions. Although Cambodia was woeful, gave away possession far too easily and panicked when under pressure. And their marking was terrible for the first goal.
That A-League Fan
Roar Guru
Well, it's never an easy road to 2022, especially considering the poor performances of the Asian Cup. I think the Socceroos have to go rebuilding mode and throw out half the players from the Asian Cup squad, players which aren't performing well and/or players who are 27 or older.
AGO74
Guest
But @redondo - if it’s a meme on Facebook that says “share if you agree” isn’t it true?
Waz
Roar Rookie
“May be worth adding, i feel the quality of play in the EURO’S is always higher than the WC” Tend to agree there. And if we want to improve the quality of the WC we should exclude Asia, Africa, Oceania and anywhere else soccers not fully established.
Redondo
Roar Rookie
Yes, it's sad that our academics' peer-reviewed research still seeps into public conversation in this country. Commies all of them, with their multiple degrees and irritating facts.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
You know nothing about the tone of my skin colour, nor my politics, so why would you even go there in a sports forum? It's completely inappropriate and poor form on your part and I'm genuinely surprised the Roar mods would allow such language.
stu
Guest
Scotland's killer has been two fold. 1. the noticable decline in talent over the last 20 years. 2. the collapse of the old soviet union. The number of groups and the size of those groups is now quite large and denting the hopes of many traditionally strong contenders. May be worth adding, i feel the quality of play in the EURO'S is always higher than the WC.
Punter
Roar Rookie
Sorry Sam, Golf is my next love, watched some of the Valspar championship this morning & had a hit myself. As Nemesis says watched some of the highlights of the Olympic side against Cambodia, plus some highlights of some of the Euros qualifiers, England & France won while Portugal drew.