Ernie Merrick's chronic case of second-year syndrome

By Chris Matthews-Darby / Roar Guru

Ernie Merrick is one of the A-League’s greatest characters and managers.

His two championships and premierships speak to the latter.

Ernie Merrick is also a creature of habit, and it’s not necessarily a good one.

After 23 rounds of the 2018-19 season the Newcastle Jets look set to the miss the finals.

They’re seven points outside of the top six with four matches remaining. Wind the clocks back 12 months, and the Jets were the fairy tale of the A-League, going from wooden-spooners to hosting the grand final in front of almost 30,000 fans.

What has happened?

Andrew Nabbout and Riley McGree have left the club, players such as Dimi Petratos haven’t hit the strides they did last year, Roy O’Donovan missed a third of the season due to suspension, and they’ve suffered multiple injuries, especially to attackers Joey Champness, Ronny Vargas, and Jason Hoffman.

The Jets netted 57 times last season and won 15 regular season matches. This year they have only won seven from 23, and have only scored 29 goals. Their winning percentage has gone from 55 per cent to 30 per cent.

Sound familiar?

This happened to Ernie Merrick when he was manager at the Melbourne Victory.

After their all-conquering 2006-07 season when they won the Grand Final 6-0 after finishing 12 points ahead of second place, they missed the finals scoring 29 goals instead of 41, and winning 28 per cent of their matches, unlike the season before where they won 66 per cent.

After making consecutive Grand Finals in 2009 and 2010, the Victory finished fifth and were eliminated in the first week of the finals by Gold Coast.

Despite fielding a relatively similar team as they did in the 2009-10 season, they only managed 11 wins out of 30, taking their win percentage from 51 per cent to 36 per cent.

Merrick was then sacked and moved to Wellington Phoenix where after enduring a tough first season, he took the Nix to their first ever top-four finish in 2014-15. They won 14 of their 27 matches, and scored 45 goals in the process.

The next season they finished ninth, only won seven of their 27 matches and scored just 34 goals, taking their win percentage from 51 per cent to 25 per cent.

(Photo by Nigel Owen/Action Plus via Getty Images)

So while I’ve thrown a bunch of numbers at you, it can be seen that for some reason Ernie’s fast-paced, counter-attacking style dies out quickly.

Is that caused by injuries, suspensions, transfers of key players, or opposition sides becoming aware of the style and being able to shut it down?

Newcastle looked like they would sneak into the finals season but back-to-back losses to the Mariners and the Phoenix have severely dented those hopes, leaving Merrick and the Jets pondering what could’ve been after such a euphoric season prior.

A bunch of players have re-signed while there are still a few off-contract. Does Ernie use that to sign fresh, fitter, and clinical players?

Will he try his luck again with the same formula that has given him four A-League titles, or will the 66-year-old be willing to switch things up?

To further the roller coaster of Ernie’s managerial career, no A-League side has missed the finals two seasons in a row under his management, so fingers crossed!

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The Crowd Says:

2019-04-01T03:34:51+00:00

Brainstrust

Roar Rookie


There is no such thing as second season with Merrick, when Merrick has success he is incapable of understanding why it happened. If anyone remembers the team best performed last season when Vargas was out injured. ODonovan as well was out a lot last season and they performed better without him. In addition to this you see the addition of Jair, the use of Jackson and Koutrimbis as fullbacks and to top it off Kantarovski in the midfield. The funny thing is when Nabbout was going, it was they dont need him they have Odonovan and Vargas. The same pattern when Merrick had success he failed to value his two best ever players at other clubs in Fred and Riera. anyone who blames Petratos is utterly clueless for whats happened this year.

2019-04-01T02:31:50+00:00

Griffo

Roar Guru


Just read this quote from Merrick:

"If Roy [Krishna] decided to leave the Phoenix then I think most clubs in the league would be after him, but I can tell you now we can't afford him so it makes no difference to us."
I think slim pickings from the market, or resigning one-year contract extensions for a good chunk of the squad on lesser pay.

2019-04-01T02:10:48+00:00

Simon Kelly

Roar Pro


Agree with most of the article and the comments below are pretty close as well. There is no way that Newcastle should sack Ernie Merrick though. This would be disastrous, he deserves at least another season. Ernie and the club have obviously got to decide wether to keep the likes of Jair, Vargas and O'Donovan. To compare Ernie and his football to Stubbins tenure is way off the mark though. Some of the football this season has been really good, but too often without the end product. goals, The type of football that was served up back then was some of the worst I've ever seen. I'm a long time Newy fan , including back in the NSL. I've also watched a great deal of football back in England including the old 3rd and 4th Div. So I've had plenty of matches to compare.

2019-04-01T01:40:51+00:00

Fadida

Roar Rookie


Agree with much of that. I actually think ROD could be kept. He scores 1 in 2. Jets need another option though. I think both Vargas and Petratos will go. Jair has always played as a second striker but lacks the finesse to be the starter there

2019-04-01T01:35:33+00:00

Griffo

Roar Guru


Jackson is poor and should not be starting. Williams first goal after 35 seconds on Saturday showed how slow he is. Jackson doesn't have the experience of the similarly slow Boogaard and does ball watch a bit. He didn't have the excuse of late game fatigue vs a fresh, pacy sub after 35 seconds... Georgievski will be a big loss but he was out of sorts early season. Hoffman on the opposite side perhaps missed but there is a reason he didn't make it as a striker/attacker. Champness needs more game time. I can't see Vargas remaining marquee and he could well move on elsewhere. Dimi has more defensive responsibilities now which doesn't sit well with him...Jair could be a cheaper #10 option in place of Vargas if Dimi is not put there but could go as well. If there is a better option than ROD out there I would like to see them signed. Scoring and a couple of quality mids and defence is needed. Stubbins was all culture and playing hard. Merrick is smarter with better football nous but is going to have to convince Lawrie and co as well as himself that change is needed to improve next season. A similarly quiet off-season to the last one won't improve things.

2019-03-31T22:43:11+00:00

Fadida

Roar Rookie


Merrick showed even late last season that he struggled to adjust to his opponents, and to make good in-game decisions. In the final MV sat back and waited for the Jets to run out of ideas. Petratos, excellent last season but disappointing this, played the final with the right footed Katroumbus at left back. Katroumbus had a nightmare, lost all confidence and left Petratos isolated on the left wing because he wasn't pushing up. Despite playing the whole second half in front of the bench, where his awful game would have been obvious, he was left on, not instructed to push on (1-0 down remember) Jets resorted to 45 minutes of long balls. Petratos totally out of the game, with no one to overlap. It's been all downhill from there. I, and many others predicted Jets would miss the finals before the season started. Why? Awful recruiting, the sackable offence of not replacing a striker suspended for TEN matches, and the flawed expectation that average players having career best seasons could somehow repeat them eg Hoff, Boogard, Kanga, Ugarkovic. By the time ROD was available the season was already gone. Madness, but very predictable. This season team selections have been baffling. The persevering with the immobile and mistake ridden Jackson, Jair, a striker, playing wide left, Hoffman, a wide player, filling in as striker. The choice of 2 defensive midfielders every game, neither pushing forward despite the game situation, leaving Jets with 5-6 players back v 1-2 attackers, when needing to score. Shepard, one of the few bright points, a technical and thoughtful target market man, found himself out of favour, then bizarrely right midfield, a less suitable choice you couldn't imagine. He's even left footed. Combine that with the right footed Jair on the right! With the season at stake v Nux, he sat in the bench until the last 15 while Merrick did his usual take off a fullback and then swap Kanta, a defensive midfielder, for Cowburn, a defensive midfielder. For the last few weeks we also saw Ernie try a unique one attacking fullback, one totally defensive fullback tactic. With 2 very bad losses. V CCM Georgevski got forward while Jackson played as a spare centre back in the left. It took until the 3rd CCM goal for him to go over half way, and he set up a goal immediately. Awful, neglectful coaching. CCM sat back in numbers all game, the 3 Jets defenders plus 2 defensive Mids marking only Jordan Murray Petratos has had a terrible season, looks fat, shunted wide. The combination of he and Jair left the Jets with no pace, and no width, a classic Merrick tactic, see his latter years at MV. For all the talk of missed chances you need to look at the number of hopeful shots from distance and the quality of players taking shots. The team is packed with utility central players; Ugarkovic, Kanta, Cowburn, Ridenton and substandard attacking central mids Jair, Thurgate, Petratos. The only width comes from Champness, and the only pace. The outcome was predictable, which is what Merrick is. We saw the same subs every week, swapping a fullback, swapping a midfielder, always reactive but never effective. Last season they played the ball quickly forward, looking to exploit pace in behind fullbacks. This season there is a lot of slow possession across the back, possession without purpose, the polar opposite to last, ending with a wild shot or misplaced pass. It's Stubbins football. Merrick out

2019-03-31T21:25:51+00:00

Griffo

Roar Guru


Merrick has at least one season left so he'll need to work around who is already signed and the budget restrictions in place. There are a lot of variables, both Merrick-induced and otherwise, influencing the season. Not least is a high shot percentage but poor conversion rate. Teams seem to be setting up defensively in higher numbers but Merrick's quick counter-attack in numbers blue print last season is slow and methodical where most teams find it hard to penetrate for clearer shots close to goal. We can look good getting there but ping shots from range. It also looks like some players are out of scoring touch when closer chances come. O'Donovan could almost have doubled his tally; Jair, Dimi, Vargas have had their chances as has Hoffman. Jair isn't the same player that Nabbout was; Vargas is like a new player in the squad compared to his few games last season and controls tempo, while Dimi, Ugarkovic, Kantarovski are not having better seasons than the last one. Defensively the most consistent backline is leaky compared to the previous season. Three-out-of-four will remain with Georgievski leaving. Two of them are not the fastest but maintain a high line which has made them vulnerable to the through-ball and quick counter. If stats are anything to go by Merrick will have a better season next time round but will need to improve the quality with smart recruiting and tough decisions on who to release compared to who is available at the right price.

2019-03-31T19:56:13+00:00

Buddy

Roar Rookie


Not much left to add to your analysis really. Questions that arise really relate to the pathway beyond this season. Is EM the person to get the Jets soaring again or does the club look elsewhere? It is always difficult to follow up a successful year although last season they finished second on the table and also runners up even if it was a controversial defeat. I would have thought there would be enough motivation for them to have had another good shot at the title again this season and at times (mel victory away) they looked really good but ar too inconsistent this time around and some of their bigger names just don’t seem to have the appetite this time around.

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