When the Demons defeated the Swans last night at the SCG to taste victory for the first time in 2019, it confirmed several theories I had brainstormed prior to the match.
Melbourne’s form slump would end eventually, given they have an extremely talented list that made the preliminary final last year.
It wasn’t surprising that the win would be against Sydney since their win-loss record prior to the match suggested that they hadn’t exactly had been flying either.
Despite the fact that the SCG is Sydney’s home ground, they have had a notoriously poor win-loss record at the stadium in recent times.
The Swans have only won five out of their last 14 matches at the venue – not exactly an ideal statistic and one that coach John Longmire and his men should be extremely concerned with.
Sydney’s struggle to win at home proved costly last season as they were thrashed by their cross-town rivals the GWS Giants by 49 points in the elimination final.
The Swans’ brains trust needs to find out why they are continuing to dish out ordinary performances at the SCG and fix the problem as soon as possible or they’ll continue to lose matches at the venue.
Their abysmal record at home will cost them a spot in the finals this season.
(AAP Image/Joel Carrett)
Having two genuine ruckmen can be useful, since it means Max Gawn can have a rest.
Bringing in Braydon Preuss against the Swans was a brilliant decision that worked wonders as he kicked two goals and had 13 hit-outs, contributing to Melbourne’s domination of the hit-outs 73 to 13.
This is the Melbourne’s first win over Sydney since 2010, when the Demons thrashed the Swans 142-69 at the MCG.
It’s always a relief to beat your bogey team and Melbourne did it with style.
An interstate victory could start the fire that enables the Demon’s form to burn brightly.
This is the sort of inspiring win that can kick-start a season as Melbourne had their backs against the wall. The Dees started the season 0-3 with disappointing losses to Port Adelaide and Essendon at the MCG as well as an 80-point thrashing at the hands of the Cats in Geelong.
Even though the Demons are 1-3, they showed some promising signs in their gutsy win against the Swans.
They could sneak into the top eight at the end of the season. If they can get the four points against St Kilda at the MCG next week, they can get their season back on track.
As for Sydney, they are also 1-3, though two poor defeats at home against the Crows and Demons – as well as a disappointing loss to the Bulldogs and an unconvincing win against Carlton both at Marvel Stadium – suggests they are in trouble this season.
They’ll definitely struggle to make the top eight. To keep their faints finals hopes alive, the Swans need to beat Richmond at Marvel Stadium next week.
As a result of their slow starts, Sydney and Melbourne are in dangerous territory. The stats show that since 2010, only three sides have started 0-2 and qualified for the finals.
This feat was achieved by the Swans in 2014 and 2017 as well as Collingwood last year.
There’s a small chance that the Demons and the Swans could make the finals, but the statistics suggest that it’s highly unlikely.
Any games lost from now will be costly. If Sydney and Melbourne want to make the finals, they need everything to go right from here.
Then again, stranger things have happened.
The Swans made September after being 0-6 in 2017, so you never know what will happen.
Barry Round
Roar Rookie
This IS a young team though remember! Sheesh - I don't recall people ever pouring as much venom upon interstate teams! As a matter of fact I quite respect them...all of them, even Collingwood! If you want a national competition then the Swans have to be in it so let's apply some sort of reality check to the "get rid of them" cry (from somebody or other). There has been quite a large amount of money distributed to all clubs through the success of the Sydney Swans and the national competition. All teams go through highs and lows and it looks like right now the Swans are in a rut but they will get out of it. Excellent point about the vindictive Fitzpatrick and the cancellation of Swan's draft pick - should have gone to court. He acted as he played - dirty. Menzil may be some help up front if he stays fit but the actual football related comments are spot on: speed in/out the centre, aggression at the ball, delivery into the 50 and conversion, so pretty much a complete rethink! You can't play Finals every year alas! As for the "fair weather supporters" comment, we shall just have to wait and see. I think the majority will see the current fade out for what it is and remain members. We have some good youngsters coming through and will be a force to be reckoned with again, soon.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Something we see in spades from Victorian clubs.................namely Richmond, but an example of many. Then again, most Vic clubs have spent more time in oblivion since 1990 than not.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Did you know that grasping at straws is an ugly act of desperation for a footy fan? WB have 2 only VFL/AFL prem's, and that is a serious stretch of comparison in itself, let alone involving VFA rubbish that happened before 1925. OM goodness, what a laugh. Swans VFL/AFL tally is 5. In the spirit of reasonableness of comparative stats.........WB have only seen finals 3 times since 2000. Swans many times that as you know and are obvious widely consideredas being in a different league in terms of competition performance than WB. It's WB and few others that actually should be in a different league, namely the VFL.
Black swan
Guest
You mean like most NRL teams?
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Well, ahem, except for 2016 topping the ladder and playing yet another finals series, pipped in the GF, Oh and 2017 winning 14 out of 16 to finish in finals, again. Respect. Regarding 2019, I think you’re right, that will all get looked at, thankfully by people who know what is best and what is fair professionally speaking.
Aw
Guest
Should have added belongs to SA and WA as well. Apologies but certainly not in NSW. Take it back to south and west of our borders
IAP
Guest
Did you know that the Swans have won 10 premierships over the course of their history and the Bulldogs have won 13? Didn't think so. Time to cut the underperforming Swans - 72 years between premierships...
JOHN ALLAN
Guest
Large percentage of Swans fans are fair weather supporters who enjoy the social aspect of being seen with winners. Let's see what their attendance is like as they slide further into oblivion.
JOHN ALLAN
Guest
Not the most "graceful" swan in the pond.
JOHN ALLAN
Guest
The way The Swan Dive is heading, it may herald a return to the early days when they were regularly belted (recall The Bears putting 200 on them) & if you got there earl you were in the running to get a game. They put all their eggs into The Buddy Basket by luring him from the clutches of GWS. How's that going?
clipper
Roar Rookie
Still almost 3 times the crowd the Roosters got at the same ground!
clipper
Roar Rookie
I think it's a given that if teams don't do well, then attendance drops. Wonder by how much - will they drop to a level near the best attended Sydney team. What happened to WA and SA - doesn't AFL belong there - or do you think it is only played in Victoria?
Aw
Guest
They will not have much of an attendance if they keep playing the way they are at the moment. Besides, Afl belongs in Victoria
anon
Roar Pro
With all that oil he coats on his arms I'm wondering if he's beefing himself up for a career in professional wrestling. Maybe do a bit of a Ronda Rousey.
TrevorFC
Roar Rookie
What do you expect when the whale doesn't train. Swans are a finished product now. Lets see how strong their club is now. Bye bye.
TrevorFC
Roar Rookie
What will be the AFL's next scheme be to keep the swans relevant? The Swans aren't they a rugby team......???????????????? Time to spend some time down the ladder and play in front of 5000 people.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Du shhh.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Underperforming compared to Whom? The bulldogs? No.
Captain Obvious
Roar Rookie
He needs to lose some weight, that enormous frame of his doesn't cover the ground too well anymore.
clipper
Roar Rookie
What a strange comment - the Swans have over double the average attendance of any NRL team in Sydney and even GWS's attendance is higher that a few - how do you come to your conclusions?