Cricket fans are offering opinions about which sides will make the finals and which ones won’t.
And though there seems to be a lot of debate about the two sides that will make the finals alongside India and England – even the bookies believe India and England are certainties to make the finals – is this realistic?
Cricket fans have few tools to line-up where sides stand. The ICC ratings for ODI teams are one measure. It suggests the top sides are:
- England – 123 points
- India – 120 points
- New Zealand – 112 points
- South Africa – 112 points
- Australia – 108 points
- Pakistan – 97 points
- Bangladesh – 90 points
- West Indies – 76 points
- Sri Lanka – 76 points
- Afghanistan – 64 points
On paper it looks like a big gap between the top two teams and daylight between the bottom three sides and Bangladesh in seventh.
This table considers results stretching back to 2016. To gauge how teams are going now, this piece will consider results for the top five sides over the past six months.
England
England have played only eight games in the past six months, winning five and losing three in Sri Lanka and the West Indies.
The Brits didn’t score more than 278 in Sri Lanka, and the only time they had to chase a sizeable total they were 9-132. The follow-up trip to the West Indies produced a drawn series, and again there was some indifferent batting – including another batting collapse – mixed with some very high scores and expensive bowling against the eighth-ranked side.
England’s looked shaky in recent times. Their batting’s become fluky and their bowling has been average to very poor.
England’s Jos Buttler (AP Photo/Ricardo Mazalan)
India
The Indians have had series wins over the West Indies, New Zealand and Australia, but they also suffered a series loss to the Aussies. The series against the Windies highlighted the risks with having such a strong top three when they fail. The all-out for 92 against New Zealand was further evidence of a batting issue.
The bowling took a while to get it right, with the West Indies putting on two scores over 300 and another over 280 before the Indian attack came good. The recent series loss against Australia must be a major concern. India might argue it was understrength, but this was the case for Australia as well.
India’s strengths became its weaknesses. Virat Kohli was outstanding, but even he can’t make a winning contribution every game. The other batsmen had indifferent series for their high standards, which cannot occur in England.
But the bowling was the biggest worry, with Australia comfortably scoring off the spinners in the key middle overs and doing enough off Jasprit Bumrah and co to win games.
India’s Virat Kohli (Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
New Zealand
The Kiwis would have had high hopes against India after a comfortable series win over Sri Lanka, but poor batting in the first three games coupled with an inability to take wickets – the Black Cap bowlers managed only nine wickets in the first three innings – gifted this series to the visitors.
To New Zealand’s credit they fought back, dismissing India for 92, but a 4-1 series loss at home when they didn’t make 240 in five games must leave fans shaking their heads. The three-nil result against Bangladesh at home would have been welcome, but the India series was a huge blow to the Kiwis’ World Cup hopes.
South Africa
They can’t have been more impressive on paper, winning all four series contested since 30 September last year, but the problem is that one series was against Zimbabwe and another against a rebuilding Sri Lankan side. They did beat Australia 2-1 before Christmas, but the Pakistan series must have been cause for concern.
South African batted first on two occasions, scored only 266 and 164 and lost both games. They won one game by the Duckworth–Lewis–Stern method after Pakistan put over 300 on them, and they probably won the series on the strength of their bowling rather than their batting
South Africa’s Faf du Plessis (AP Photo/Mark Baker)
Australia
The Aussies looked completely dead and buried after successive series losses to South Africa and India. It wasn’t just the fact they lost; it was the manner in which they were playing, which was certainly not as a team and certainly not with confidence.
Two months in India and Pakistan brought about a stunning turnaround. Batsmen are now in very good touch and the bowling has shown it can win games, but above all, the team now has the confidence it can beat any team in the World Cup.
What to make of all this?
First of all, there’s no clear form guide. This makes deciding which teams will make the finals and who will win it next to impossible to predict with any accuracy.
Each team has to play nine games to reach the finals, so teams would be aiming to win at least seven games to be sure of a place. The chances of one or more team going through this many games undefeated must be slim at best.
Any thoughts this World Cup is a two horse race between England and India should be dispelled. Both have shown they are very beatable if the right tactics are executed well.
It makes not one bit of difference where sides rank on the ODI world list. All teams have players capable of getting their sides home against any other team. The West Indies have conclusively shown this against both England and India. In other words, there are not likely to be any (or many) easy games.
If there aren’t any easy games, the roster depth and player management of each country will be tested. Players will still need to be rested, so those coming in need to be ready to go physically and mentally. The selectors will need to choose sides carefully, making sure they get the right guys playing based on the opposition and the ground conditions.
This World Cup has the potential to be the best yet. There are so many quality players spread across all ten teams that an upset could come from any game.
Best of luck picking a winner on form. As it stands, there are at least six teams with genuine chances of making the knockout stage, and once in the finals, anything can happen.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
Hey Paul, you’re getting good at this mate. Terrific article imo. .. England are the marquee side recently so I’m going to concentrate on them. I think what they’ve done is change the way the middle overs go down. Traditionally teams would try to milk a steady stream of runs between the 10th and 40th overs. All teams tried to tee off in the last 10 and the more proactive ones also tried to take a toll during the power play in the first 10. England stacked their side with batters and batting all rounders and said we’re going to tee off through the middle as well. This goes a long way to explaining how they can make 400 one day and 120 the next. It either works or it doesn’t. They’re in the fortunate situation of having a very talented side and so far it’s worked far more often than not over the last few years but I believe the cracks are showing. Teams at least now know what they need to do. If you bat well yourself, and even more importantly, bowl and field well during the middle overs you CAN combat them. It’s easier said than done of course. They truly are talented and have a number of players capable of making big scores but they are not unbeatable. If enough bowling pressure is applied they can self detonate. I think we are a side capable of doing that but we need our best bowlers on the park and bowling well. We need Starc fit and firing and Cummins and Zampa to continue their good form if we hope to upset the favourites.
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
Great read Paul. You should be fancying Australia on their recent form; what a turn around. Add in the return of Warner and Smith, both world class, and there's a better balance to the team. I'm interested to see how Pakistan go before the tournament too; they're not as mercurial as they used to be and boast some fine players. They're my dark-horse team for this tournament. I think India still sits at the top of the totem, they were impressive down here despite their loss in Australia. I agree with Jose in that the bowling units should have significant say, especially those beneath the openers. The spinners and all-rounders will be key. You're so right about depth at such a long tournament too. Management of the bowlers especially will be crucial, as will exposure for before the semis for batsmen and bowlers. The other factor will be the environs. Seaming pitches? Weather? Will it swing? Swing will offer different teams a distinct advantage IMO (Boult, Starc, Southee for example) but I maintain that the all-rounders and spinners will be vital in what is shaping as an interesting tournament...
bobbo7
Guest
Hard to pick a winner. England, Australia, India or NZ most likely. But all can easily lose. IPL form does nothing for me and there is no guarantee Warner and Smith will slide back into the team and perform. I question whether Smith really should be there on form? He was struggling a little before sandpaper gate and the guy he replaces has been making runs. All that said, Australia have been going quite well and if a player like Maxwell fires they are in with a real shot. For India, as you say if the top 3 fail they will be in real trouble. Kohli is a gun but if he has a dry run I can't see them going far. For NZ, if two of KW, Taylor or Guptill play well they have a real chance as they have the firepower down the order to put big scores on. I also have a sneaky feeling Munro might just come good when it matters. The India series this year was not a big deal. NZ had been resting leading up to the series and they just played poorly. NZ also play the WC well and if they can find form at the top of the order they are a real chance to make the semis. For England, they just have that odd ability to make 400 one day and 188 the next. They have to be slight favourites due to a list of tonkers but they are very beatable on their day. WI, SA and Pakistan can also beat anyone on their day. For mine SA just always find a way to trip up and I find no reason to think this won't happen again here. Should be a ripping WC.
jose
Roar Rookie
Good Analysis Paul. yes this could be a very open tournament compared to the last few editions, even though it is not doing to justice to associate nations like Ireland. I think there could be one or 2 teams who will win at least 7 or 8 league matches like New Zealand in 1992. If it goes like an IPL tournament (ie the last 4 are still not decided when we reach the last 3-4 matches point), it will be an exciting tournament for the fans.
Kopa Shamsu
Guest
Finally a guy who watched the game rather than commenting on score cards. My take on this is, despite what the ranking says, there have been lots of close games. And as you have mentioned, all of these countries in ranking have shown fragility one way or another which you have covered like England's over reliance on power hitting, India's fragility in different conditions. Upcoming series England vs Pakistan is going to be interesting one I believe & will give us some idea. Which I like about the upcoming world cup is resurgence of bowling after long stint of flat track bullies. Almost all country boost capable bowling attack say either pace or spin ( Even England has Ali & Rashid, can't say about archer if he will be included). Afghanistan boosts 3 world class short form spinner. Then you get S.A., Pakistan, WI( WI has been impressive lately). Among past 3-4 wcs, I believe this one is going to be most unpredictable one & IMO, it will be bowling unit which will decide who will win. Ranking is going to have absolutely zero say on this one.