One of the issues the NRL likes to talk up is how the salary cap has evened out the competition.
Supporters will point to last year’s finals, where one game and a few split hairs separated first from eighth.
The reality is somewhat different and it’s not a good thing for the NRL.
Bookies don’t always get it right, but after Round 7 they have three teams with a realistic chance of winning the premiership – Easts, Souths and Melbourne.
Nothing unexpected, but what is disturbing is the lack of a chasing pack.
There are only another three sides rated as a chance of winning the lot – Canberra, St George Illawarra and Brisbane – and even these sides are around the 15-1 mark.
All other teams are rated outsiders, which must be a huge worry for the NRL and its notion of an even competition.
We’re only seven rounds into the season and many things that can still happen, but what probably won’t change is a completely uneven finals series, simply because the comp does not have enough teams capable of winning the premiership.
Yes, there’s always a chance of a miracle run into the grand final and even the possibility of a complete outsider winning the lot, but it’s hard to see that happening in 2019 because of the gulf between the top three teams and the rest.
In simple terms, teams need playmakers who can run the ship under pressure, a good plan both, and that stems from a very good coach. They need to have few weaknesses in their best 17, and stability within the club so the focus is on winning.
Outside the Roosters, Storm and Rabbitohs, all teams have one or more weakness.
The Raiders have a great playmaker at hooker but the halves are so-so at best. The Dragons’ coach does not instill confidence he can get his guys through 25 rounds, let alone into the finals. The Broncos have struggled with question marks over their spine, a lack of forward leadership, and whether Anthony Seibold is the right fit for the club.
Broncos coach Anthony Seibold (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
The other ten teams all have one or more issues that have been well documented.
The NRL can talk up the finals all it likes, with commercials already trying to flog tickets, but fans want their side to make the finals and be a realistic chance once they get there.
As it stands, we’re looking at a repeat of last year, where the best game of the finals series was the qualifying final between Melbourne and Souths.
There were some exciting moments in the other games, but the difference in class came through in the preliminary finals. The teams who finished in the top four played off and the Sharks were hammered by the Storm, while the Roosters vs Souths game was relatively close.
A similar scenario is on the cards this September, and fans will become uninterested if the gap between those who can win the premiership and those who can’t does not shrink.
There are 13 teams that have a lot of work to do so they can be competitive come finals time. It may not happen this year, but it needs to happen soon, otherwise the finals might as well revert to four teams as it was back in the day.
Roy
Guest
Stupid article. So there are 3 front runners and 3 chasing, as far as I can see and I've been a fan since 66 resume normal transmission. Ever since I can remember there's always been a couple of standout teams and then the chasers. My advice to the NRL is get rid of the stupid salary cap and let clubs battle on. Maybe it will put to bed the stupid carry on about local juniors and clubs buying players which every club does. Until there is an even playing field regarding juniors then the juniors argument is over before it starts. Maybe we can go back to the days of Saints winning 10 in a row, would that make people happy?
Insider
Roar Rookie
Between 1999 and 2002 are the greatest years of the South Sydney rabbits, that and the 1000 wooden spoons
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
Just have a triangular final series like they used to in the one day cricket.
Insider
Roar Rookie
Well you can give him what Manly never could A cutlery set
Albo
Roar Rookie
No chance ! He would want to play in Turbo's position. Or else beg for number 6 and this would end up cramping DCE's style. In the end he could likely revert to his old Manly wing spot or be just another handy utility type, which I'm sure he is well past, in his own mind ? Nope ! He will stay as the "king" of Parra, rather than an "also ran " at Brookie.
rayner
Roar Rookie
What's with you and Souths? Anything positive and you troll them. Also saw your similar comment about them on the Coaches post. How about giving us some positive stuff on whichever team you support instead (I'm presuming it the Roosters)?
RandyM
Guest
uhh wasn't there only 2 points separating 1st and 8th last year? that's as close as it gets
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
Maybe the young half might steer them in the right direction but I maintain they will miss the 8
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
Their pack is highly rated but they haven't stood up on a regular basis, hence the 2 wins from 7. The very definition of overrated. A teams fortunes starts with dominating the middle
Paul
Roar Guru
exactly! The NRL can't change finals formats simply because there aren't enough competitive teams to make an 8 team finals exciting, it's up to the Clubs to improve enough in what ever area to make themselves a genuine contender.
Paul
Roar Guru
Duncan, it's not what I want to do, it's what the Clubs need to do if they want to be competitive. This has nothing to do with equality or a level playing field, it's all about where 3 Clubs sit in terms of player quality, coach quality & good game planning and strong Club administration. Each of the other 13 Clubs has an issue in one or more of these areas and of they can fix these issues, they can be competitive. As it stands though, IMO there's a yawning gap between those who can and those who cannot.
Paul
Roar Guru
hi Adam, when I was writing this piece, I was going to leave out the Broncs because I agree with you, but they were on the same line of betting as Canberra & the Dragons, so I would have been hammered by die hard Brisbane supporters if I didn't include them.
Paul
Roar Guru
Emcie, the only way I can see one of the top 3 falling by the wayside would be a long term injury to a Smith, Cook or Keary/Cronk. Of course that can happen, but one of the points I was trying to make is the gap between those who can win the lot and those who can't is huge and there only 3 who can, IMO.
Paul
Roar Guru
not at all, tragic. I'm saying there is a class gap between the top 3 sides and the rest of the comp and if this divide doesn't get bridged this year, the rest of the season AND the finals become somewhat meaningless unless your a Storm, Bunnies, or Roosters fan.
Peter Piper
Guest
You have your Genuine Contenders who produce year in year out, Storm & Roosters at the moment, Storm and Manly a few years back then you have the one hit wonders who blow in with an out performance and then blow out again. The Bunnies are currently in this category, the dragons early part of last year, the sharks well their blow in year was 2016 and I just don't see then having another one any time soon.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Last year the Chooks had one or more weakness as well according to the critics, a pedestrian pack and a second major weakness on GF day emerged when Cronk played with a broken shoulder. Some teams other than the big three have good enough rosters to win the comp and there is a good chance one or two will emerge from the pack to make a run. The Broncos are one of the dark horses because a young pack can mature a lot in a season and if the new half exceeds expectations which can happen then everything changes. Even Manly with a full roster are capable of causing some damage if they make the finals. The young hooker Fainu is showing signs of being the type of player who can lead a team to a title sooner rather than later.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
not sure about that, Souths have only played well in two of seven games and are sitting equal top. This is with a new coaching staff and the retirement of GI. Burns will make a difference when back and if Roberts does sign then what an addition he could be. Sammy not close to playing his best footy nor the Twins. I think Souths have a fair bit of improvement in them to come over the course of the season. I would say Souths so far are in 2nd or 3rd gear.
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
My point is we already have the salary cap and we haven't had a back to back premier in 25 years, but it's still not good enough according to this article.
Big Daddy
Guest
It's one of the problems when you have an 8 team semi final series. For a few years it's the top 4 and the other 4 make up the numbers.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Well that's the way the salary cap is supposed to work. Give every club the same amount to spend and see what they can assemble - TPAs not withstanding of course. Personally I like it a lot better than that joke of a competition the EPL which rewards clubs with the deepest pockets and richest benefactors. Give me the socialism of the NRL and AFL any day. Teams like the Roosters and Storm have a core of elite players on big dollars - the challenge is to surround them with players who buy into the team philosophy who are on more modest salaries.