After a huge week in which one footballer had the audacity to consume a beer or three on his day off and a modern legend got off at the tribunal because he’s a good bloke – and, you know, the vibe – we now, tragically, have to talk about an actual football game.
The Bombers are just chugging along at the moment. The stink of the first two rounds has been washed away, but it’s hard to tell yet if they’re any good.
There’s no shame in their past two losses – Geelong and Collingwood could well be the two best teams in it – but losses are just that, and at 3-4 they’re precariously placed for a team that expects to play finals at a minimum.
There’s no such difficulty in getting a handle on Sydney. For the first time in living memory, the Swans stink.
Sydney optimists will point to the 0-6 team of 2017 as evidence that the Bloods can turn it around, but this team isn’t of that quality.
The Swans have been quietly rebuilding the core of their list for a few years now, and they’re up to their ears in that rebuild right now. The team that lost to Brisbane was on average about six months younger and 13 games less experienced than the apparently youthful Lions.
Eight of the 22 in last week’s loss had played fewer than 50 games, and that will become nine tonight with four-gamer Colin O’Riordan replacing Harry Cunningham and his 111 games of experience in the only change to their line-up.
The Bombers – playing off just a five-day break – have made four changes to a team that was no match for Geelong.
Orazio Fantasia comes in – much to the delight of Brian Taylor and the despair of viewers across the country – as do David Myers, Brayden Ham and Zac Clarke. Out of the team go Joe Daniher – ‘managed’ after the short week – as well as Kyle Langford, Jordan Ridley and Mark Baguley, who have all been dropped.
With Daniher joining Mitch Brown on the sidelines and Cale Hooker now spending his time in the back half, it leaves the Bombers a little short in attack.
Aaron Francis will likely float forward and Jake Stringer isn’t small in the true sense of the word, but there’s no major aerial threat.
Kicking it long into attack could play into Sydney’s hands. The Swans are ranked dead last this season when it comes to conceding inside-50s, giving up on average 61.4 per game – Carlton are next worst at 58 a game.
What they do well, however, is bring the ball to ground or take it away when it comes in.
Despite conceding so many inside-50s, they have conceded the fourth-fewest marks in their defensive 50. Aliir Aliir has a strong say in that. His 23 intercept marks this season are the third most behind Alex Keath and Jeremy McGovern.
However, should the ball come in regularly, it will take an exceptional display from Aliir, Dane Rampe and the unproven and unconvincing Lewis Melican if the Swans are to restrict the Bombers to a low score.
Stringer, Fantasia and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti are all extremely comfortable hunting the ball once it hits the deck.
Stringer, in particular, is having an exceptional season – his finest since his All-Australian year of 2015. Rampe is well suited to take on the former Bulldog.
The midfield battle will be an interesting one, and if the home team are to pull off an upset, it’s the one area they could find an edge.
Isaac Heeney is the best on-baller in tonight’s match, though just how much time he spends following the footy is always a bit of a conundrum for coach John Longmire given Heeney’s ability in attack where he is even more valuable with Lance Franklin out of the side.
Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker are both past their best, but they’ll keep on keeping on.
Zak Jones is spending more time in the middle and is capable and can provide some much-needed dash, though he won’t put fear into many opponents. Ollie Florent is coming along nicely.
George Hewett, however, could be the key tonight.
Hewett is a tough bugger and a capable tagger. I expect he’ll go to Zach Merrett, who has been known to struggle with heavy attention.
Another option could be to send him to put the clamps on former cross-town rival Dylan Shiel.
Unflinching Essendon skipper Dyson Heppell is having a very solid season and will be more than comfortable banging against Parker or Kennedy all night.
The Bombers should have a slight edge around the footy, but nothing major.
Their defenders, however, will have slept well. Hooker, Michael Hurley, Patrick Ambrose and runners Adam Saad and Conor McKenna should dictate terms and drive the ball towards their attack without too much difficulty against a ho-hum collection of Sydney forwards.
Sydney aren’t your traditional bad team, but they are a bad team nonetheless. If Essendon are to be taken seriously this season, this is the kind of game they should win and win comfortably.
I’m tipping the Bombers by four goals.
That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?
Cat
Roar Guru
Not even close.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Now now, don’t go all sook on us. Swans won fair and square.
Angela
Guest
Fifteenth now. Old guard didn't do too badly either. And Swans have the greatest number of young players who've played the least number of games in the comp. Go Swans and cheers to Longmire.
Rissole
Roar Rookie
Think they really missed a tall forward. There was no nullifying the air in Sydney's 16 man backline. Poor tactics from Essendon, but it's hard to create space on the SCG. Not surprised at the result though.
Angela
Guest
'Sydney aren’t your traditional bad team, but they are a bad team nonetheless.' Thanks Glenn for noticing this. Very clumsily put. Off to writing school for you Adrian Polykandrites. As it turns out the bad team didn't play too badly at all.
ac
Guest
How can the CEO say he was glad the umpires showed maturity in the decision they made about not awarding a free kick despite the rules saying they should have? Sounds like a bias to the Swans if you ask me. I guess the AFL is worried about the Swans lack of wins.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Rubbish, that was an exciting game, as good as you will see most weeks.
Cat
Roar Guru
Just because the final score was close does not make it a quality game. It was two low skilled teams making heaps of errors. Most state league games I watch are better quality.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Turns out that forecast is more a statement about you than it was the actual game.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
We were right Raimond
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Wow, bombers need to dig deep to avoid 3-7 rissole. What’s gone Wrong? I had you at 5th preseason.
Mitcher
Guest
Can someone who posted 490 times on the ‘Geelong are hard done by’ thread take that line with a straight face. Apparently, yes. On ya Garfield. Get into that lasagne ya cranky champion.
Glenn
Guest
I'm sorry, did you say something.
Glenn
Guest
I don't hear the real experts saying that they stink. I suppose a football knowledge isn't gifted to everyone.
Peter Warrington
Guest
They really aren’t any younger than a bunch of teams eg dogs and Richmond from last weekend
Cat
Roar Guru
Sydney is far from the only team playing a bunch of kids but they are the only one in 18th. Problem isn't the Swans kids it's the Swans old guard who are fading and breaking down.
Cat
Roar Guru
I forecast a terrible game of football. That's the best I can do.
Cat
Roar Guru
He won't win the Brownlow anyway. Nice tinfoil hat stuff though 3/10.
Peter
Guest
Of course Ablett got off. AFL management, especially marketing, would sell their daughters into slavery if it would get 10 more bums on seats. They’re not going to allow a silly little strike to the head to interfere with getting Ablett another Brownlow.
IAP
Guest
That’s cos he’s talking about your team. For the rest of us grating barracking.