When Patrick Cripps missed the snap that would have extended Carlton’s lead to three goals, 20 minutes into Saturday’s final term, it was the prod to waken the sleeping giant.
The sleeping Magpies in this case, who laboured through an odd afternoon at the MCG, a quintessential letdown game that featured an abundance of letting down.
Collingwood play in bursts, though, and they opened the final quarter on one that looked like it would end the game.
Carlton’s slim lead was devoured and Collingwood was suddenly everywhere. It felt like there were 34 Magpies on the MCG surface, space closed down as soon as it briefly appeared, an onslaught of manic tackling swallowing up the ground.
Exiting defensive 50 for the Blues was like trying to sit an exam in a burning building, with players trying to remember the plan, or how to be cool, as mean bodies kept on flying at them from every angle.
They would hurry tame kicks forward out of defence, either out on the full or into waiting Magpie arms. Then the Pies would bombard the ball forward again, and the process would repeat until a goal eventuated.
A tightly contested game suddenly became one where Collingwood chalked up 15 of the previous 16 inside 50s. It felt like a run that would end the competitive portion of the game.
But then Carlton, through the monstrous brilliance of their captain, kicked a goal against the run of play and embarked on a run of their own. They never killed the game, though, because Cripps missed, keeping the door ajar.
Collingwood burst through that door and slammed it shut, kicking the last five goals of the game.
This time the burst was too relentless, too ballistic. The Magpies bodies flew around the ground, with violence and composure, a bit of artistry to go with the body-crushing.
Whether it’s true or not, when Collingwood are on, their best feels like the best in the competition. The Cats and Eagles, the Pies’ two biggest concerns, are defined by the strength of their defensive structures and how impenetrable they seem at times. The Magpies are defined by how ridiculously perfect at football they can look for stretches.
The pace and spread that Collingwood play with makes their brilliance more appetising and mainstream than the integrity of indie defensive set-ups.
Their small forwards – a crew of not-failed midfielders set free as a mosquito fleet in the front half – in Will Hoskin-Elliott, Josh Thomas, Jaidyn Stephenson and Jordan De Goey give the team its identity and menace.
Will Hoskin-Elliott (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
The backline is quietly the best, most trustworthy part of the team, with intercept marking extraordinaires in Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe complemented by the toughness, savvy and dash of Brayden Maynard, Tom Langdon and Jack Crisp.
Ironically, the one area of the team that is most concerning is the midfield, which has been lauded by many as the best in the competition. When the Magpies break down, though, it’s in the midfield, where at times they can look too one-paced.
The burrowing, explosive brilliance of Tim Kelly, Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood is only really emulated by Adam Treloar, with Scott Pendlebury, Dayne Beams and Steele Sidebottom, champions in their own right, different types of players.
De Goey is the swing-piece, of course, and how he’s deployed, and at which moments, could determine Collingwood’s season. If Jamie Elliott can stay fit and in form – doubtful over the course of a season – De Goey will be more freed up to play in the middle, where his grunt, strength, speed and general walking brilliance complete the midfield mix.
This team is not yet a juggernaut, like its 2010 and 2011 predecessors. Geelong are the best-performed team in the competition right now, and if Collingwood play West Coast in a final no Magpies fan will feel confident.
But Collingwood’s bursts remain the most devastating in the competition, and they are tough enough and well-drilled enough that they can endure between the bursts, until suddenly the game becomes a black and white stage, and everything becomes frenetic and inevitable.
Gerry
Roar Rookie
You have changed your tune a bit there Pete banging on about the umpire decision that cost you the flag is the the sign of a sore loser. Let’s face it you just weren’t good enough on the day and the Eagles were. There were quite a few dodgy decisions went against the Eagles from memory too. So swings and roundabouts. I hope Collingwood get it this year but don’t devalue the Eagles brilliant win.
Jack the Lad
Roar Rookie
Hi Peter! , i am also a mad pie fan :) i proudly wear the members scarf in the street and get regular go pies from other people on the street. just 7 years in so far.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Nice work Mr Toad. These conspiracy theorists don’t stop to think that if that got out it would literally stop the competition. Ridiculous to think any umpire is instructed to favour any side.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Stringer can’t play midfield.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
And a member of the flat earth society too?
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
As an additional comment, I have added in the details of the ranking of teams with the frees against lowest to highest. The columns are current position on the ladder, free kick differential and frees against. Fremantle 8 1 125 Western Bulldogs 10 44 126 Adelaide Crows 3 9 129 Geelong Cats 1 9 131 Collingwood 2 37 134 Gold Coast Suns 14 5 139 North Melbourne 17 21 144 GWS Giants 4 1 147 West Coast Eagles 7 0 147 Hawthorn 9 -19 151 St Kilda 12 -8 155 Richmond 6 -14 156 Carlton 18 -36 162 Sydney Swans 16 -15 165 Essendon 13 -16 165 Melbourne 15 -14 166 Brisbane Lions 5 15 168 Port Adelaide 11 -20 171 The stronger correlation between low frees against and ladder position suggests that for a coach the greatest reward for effort is in making sure that players do not give away frees over coaching players to win frees.
IAP
Guest
I’m not so sure. Stringer is the player most like him in the league and he’s a much better forward than midfielder.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
As a mid, he is the best ruck I have ever seen. And, as a ruck, he is the best mid I have ever seen. I think I see what you mean with Grundy and his hands, however his high works against him in getting a low or on the ground ball and then getting a clean hand pass away. Additionally, working below the knees or at waist height he also has the problem of getting the ball away from opposition players. While this is a problem for every player, Grundy is doing it in way most rucks never experience because they do not get to the fall of the ball. Realistically, I am always surprised at what he is able to do immediately after the tap and around the ground.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Love Grundy but he needs to work on his delivery by hand...it is not great as a "mid" and causes many turnovers.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
Can you suggest a way of picking up a ball that doesn't involve putting your head down. The rule exists to protect the player going for the ball. You are suggesting that there is some kind of conspiracy to favour Collingwood which is nonsense, just think of the umpires that would have to be involved and that they would then not tell anyone. I suppose that you believed that all the images of the moon landing were faked. But if you look at my analysis in the post above you will see the advantage in free kicks is not getting them so much as not giving them away.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
Collingwood still haven't beaten anyone above them on the ladder, and Geelong is doing even worse.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
I think that Grundy is great, but I am unsure of his value in the ruck. He is a predictable winner at taps and so can be negated by smalls simply roving to him. His great value is his ability to compete in the ruck and than become a midfielder. But, from Collingwood's perspective worrying about how to rove to a winning tape without it being sharked is a great problem to have.
Raimond
Roar Guru
Carlton are the bottom team, and therefore the worst.
Crock' O' Clock
Roar Rookie
Someone has to fly the flag for the number 39 Pete! I actually spotted you last year during the finals, and you were constantly defending us against Richmond fans who, rightly, believed they would walk into the Grand Final. You were humble, yet quietly confident I felt. You and I know the result. On our form, I was at training today, and went to the coffee shop and they were all there, players looking trim and terrific. Coxy had ice on his ankle, but said he might try and play, and Adam Treloar said De Goey will be right. But you have to manage them. So inconsistency might be the result of these niggles? Better to rest them one week now, rather than have them blow up just before finals. As for the Grand Final, I now recall that WHE goal in the first. We could have scored them from anywhere in that first 25 minutes. Had it continued all day, it would have been a fairytale. Sheed when it counts, but would it not have been tied if he kicked a behind? We had 1:40 on the clock. Fast break, and with players panicking, we might have got it down the other end. It still gives me nightmares. What is your opinion on Ben Reid, Pete?
rainstorms
Roar Rookie
Peter, One of the smallest guys on the field (Rioli) outmuscled him!! after the other small guy (Ryan) crunched him in a tackle. Maynard was supposed to be one of your hard men in the backline and was lauded for his defensive efforts and body strength against Toby Greene. The Howe tackle/non-call defintely cost WCE a goal, so maybe take your imaginary timeline from that point on and the Maynard choke doesn't happen at all. You had bigger issues that day, De Goey stood back and watched McGovern win that last ball, where was Man Bun Grundy all day? Did he even play? Sidebottom wasn't given an inch to move and was largely a spectator. Tbh your guys may not have even got that far had the GWS final not shown such blatantly biased umpiring towards Collingwood Lets also look at this season - Mihocek hits the post and is given a goal despite the AFL saying all goals get reviewed, Pendles ducks his head on Anzac Day and wins a crucial late free. I thought ducking the head was play on. Different rules for some it seems
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
I have inserted the free kick totals and per game average differential for frees by each of the teams for the 2019 season so far, ranked highest to lowest. Western Bulldogs 44 , 5.5 Collingwood 37, 4.625 North Melbourne 21, 2.625 Brisbane Lions 15, 1.875 Adelaide Crows 9, 1.125 Geelong Cats 9, 1.125 Gold Coast Suns 5, 0.625 Fremantle 1, 0.125 GWS Giants 1, 0.125 West Coast Eagles 0, 0 St Kilda -8, -1 Melbourne -14, -1.75 Richmond -14, -1.75 Sydney Swans -15, -1.875 Essendon -16, -2 Hawthorn -19, -2.375 Port Adelaide -20, -2.5 Carlton -36, -4.5 Interestingly there is little correlation between ladder position and average number of free kicks (coefficient of correlation = -0.4) However, it seems that some teams play in a way that makes them more likely to be penalised than others. Collingwood has been a low frees against side for several years while Carlton and Essendon have been high free kicks against for several years. Because Collingwood, a low free kick against side, when they play sides such as Essendon or Carlton that have more frees against than for the difference in playing style will be more obvious and seem as umpiring bias. However, when each team’s frees for and against are close to their long run average bias is less likely to be an important factor than playing style. Interestingly, I have not seen any great claims of umpiring bias against the Dogs this year but they have the highest free kick differential. The most important correlation to ladder position is in frees against. Ladder position is correlated to a team’s frees given away so that a team that gives away the least frees can expect a higher ladder position (coefficient of correlation = 0.46) For a claim of umpiring bias in favour of or against any team to hold up, it would require a conspiracy involving multiple umpires. Even if it would be possible to arrange such a conspiracy, it would involve many people and the chances of it coming out would be quite high. Conspiracy s an unlikely explanation for free kick differentials particularly when considering the patterns extend across seasons. So the message for coaches is that it pays to ensure that your players are in tune with what the umpires are paying each week and over the season.
Macca
Roar Rookie
At the bottom of the ladder with a percentage better than 4 other sides & better than 5 other sides for points for. Ladder position after 8 rounds isn't a great indicator of who is "worst" or best", you need to come up with something more substantive. How about this, your team has a home game this weekend, would you prefer to play Carlton or the Suns?
Macca
Roar Rookie
Better than Fasolo but never really seems to have fulfilled the potential of the glimpses he has shown. If we get him for nothing he could prosper in a new environment but hardly a game changer.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
This game was the best look I have had at Carlton this year, though it was in bits and pieces. I think they are doing better than I had thought. I would say they are where Collingwood was four or five years ago. For their sake, I hope injuries do not disrupt them as was Collingwood. It is easier to see and understand how a team that has been successful is disrupted by injuries in the way Richmond is this year. It is harder to assess when there is no benchmark for where real level so I suspect their will be plenty of sceptics having a comment about Carlton over the next three years or so.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
The thing with the Cats for me is they are fairly even and as such immune from any key injury impact to a certain extent. Their mid bats deep and as we have seen with Danger and Selwood quiet or missing, they barely skip a beat. They seem an even side across all lines. The Pies IMO are hugely dependant on Grundy. Our midfield can take a couple of hits but in the ruck we are vulnerable. Down back we are still vulnerable with Dunne out again though Scharenberg is due to return soon.