Saturday May 25, 2019 could mark a watershed moment for this Essendon side.
It’s the moment when they have the opportunity to beat a team – Richmond – that is a contender for the 2019 flag.
And going off recent history against the Tigers and the fact the Dons currently sit 10th on the ladder, a loss here would see finals slip away.
So what to make of Essendon over the first nine rounds of the season?
You could break their season up into three segments.
The first was their games against Greater Western Sydney and St Kilda, where they were non-competitive and listless. People were calling for John Worsfold to be sacked and questioning the leaders of the team.
The next three weeks saw them bounce back with wins over strugglers Melbourne and North Melbourne and a strong performance against Brisbane.
Over this three-week period they kicked over 100 points and conceded 58 and 65 points in two of the games. They conceded 112 against Melbourne.
People were starting to see Essendon as a dark horse for finals and potentially go a bit further up the ladder as the season progressed.
But the last month of football has been a period of disappointment as well as introspection on how the team can learn from their mistakes.
Anzac Day could be seen as one of their best performances of the year, but they didn’t win. Umpiring decisions over the game could’ve gone either way and that exasperated fans.
They were dreadfully unlucky not to beat Sydney two weeks ago and probably would have if the umpire had the courage to make that call.
Against Geelong, they weren’t allowed to play their game, and even though their win last week against Fremantle was a solid victory, the team still weren’t at their best.
Essendon haven’t exactly set the world on fire against Richmond, with their last victory against them coming in Round 11 2014.
Essendon have struggled in Dreamtime clashes. (Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
That was during a period in that season when the Tigers were struggling. They ended up making the finals but had to win their last nine matches to get there.
Since that game, the Tigers have won eight games in a row against their sash rivals with an average margin of 26 points. There have been a few blow-outs but five of the eight games were decided by 19 points or fewer.
So it’s not like Essendon have been that far away from Richmond. Last year’s game in Round 22 is a good example of this. All night the Bombers looked to be off the pace by around four to five goals but a late surge saw them get within eight points.
But this isn’t the same Richmond side. Last year they were flying with a healthy list and a stranglehold over the rest of the competition.
Already this campaign they have lost to the Pies once again in a demolition job and got taken apart by the quick ball movement of GWS and the Western Bulldogs, so the template is there for Essendon to cause a massive upset.
The Bombers must take the game on from the get go. They have been slow starters in games, winning just three of nine first quarters.
To have any chance of beating Richmond they need to be close to them at quarter-time. If they can do that, they may be able to control the midfield battle and the defensive areas of the ground.
Richmond are missing four key players for Saturday’s game. Alex Rance, Trent Cotchin, Jack Riewoldt and Toby Nankervis are all massive losses.
If Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell and Dylan Shiel can outshine the Tigers’ midfield, it gives the Bombers a fantastic chance of getting repeat entries into their forward line. And that will go a long way towards winning on Saturday night.
JamesH
Roar Guru
You're only six years late to the party...
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
I think that Collingwood was designed to counter Richmond in the way Buckley put the team together. Any coach would always have to think, what are we going to do about Richmond? With a short backline Collingwood were a poor match against the WCE. To succeed they needed to get to the contest first and defend the WCE talls by simply not giving the WCEs time in possession.
RT
Roar Rookie
Great analysis. I agree about the 50 50 chance for that prelim. It was the first game I attended last year having gone to all Melbourne games, where I was genuinely worried the Tigers might lose. (It was the only Melb loss too.) I felt we'd lose to West Coast anyway, but with Collingwood getting so close, now I am not so sure. Even with players coming back I'd still rate Richmond behind Geelong and Collingwood. Unless we meet in finals we'll never know, though Richmond might be a lot closer to full strength for the Collingwood gsme in July.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
I think that Collinwood had done well against Richmond during the season, but had two games where they carried in game injuries and short benches. While the Tigers were clear winners on each day, I never felt the score line was an accurate indicator of the game or future outcomes. By the time the finals came I though Collingwood at least even money to win. I felt Buckley had been fine tuning Collingwood’s set up to stop Richmond’s exit from packs in each of their matches for two seasons. The key was cutting off Richmond’s outlets from a pack, but Collingwood still be able to break free through chain of quick handpasses. I think Richmond’s game style is tough on bodies and as their team ages they will really need to start to find a way to protect some of their heavy workload players, particularly in the last 6 or so rounds when everyone is playing sore. Last year, I think fatigue was a factor and that Collingwood had been setting them selves for this match up and refining tactics for two years.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
Thanks for that link. I have been looking for last years stats, they were taken off the AFL site. Hardwick's strategy last year was to ensure that there is always immediate pressure on any opponent with the ball and rely on eventually getting a ball tapped out to an outside runner. This necessarily means a lot of heavy inside contact and some frees against, but clearly it was something Richmond did really well for a number of seasons. It also relied on having some really good backs capable of mopping up opposition kicks made under pressure. Rance was the king at this. Last year every time Collingwood played Richmond, they brought a slight change to how they tried to stop Richmond's exist from pack, while still being able to get out themselves. In the end, it looked to be having a set up outside the pack and getting three or more quick hand passes away just gaining an extra half second each possession until they had time for a good kick away or free runner. With high numbers committed to the contest, once out Collingwood had one or two free players. The frees against is only one measure, and clearly different teams will have alternative strategies so it gives hints about where teams are going well but it is not the complete answer.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
They might need to look at some dietary supplements for muscle recovery.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
The Tigers were run very close by the Cats, Dogs and Bombers near the end of the season and were flattered by an inept Gold Coast outfit result in between. They played something like 2 games in 30 days too. They had peaked early. This season they will begin to get their stars back second half of the year and will be very very dangerous. I'd have them just a step behind the Cats perhaps leading the next group of challengers in Pies, Eagles and Giants.
RT
Roar Rookie
Well, the explanation would have stopped me making my comment, lol. I thought I was just responding to a random thought on frees and ladder positions. I will be more careful who I am responding to next time. For anyone who wants to see the free kick differential (and frees against) from last year: https://www.triplem.com.au/story/afl-free-kick-differential-ladder-round-23-2018-106977 You can see why I am a bit bemused with Richmond so far behind the next closest.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
Actually, one of the things I used to do was analyse data. I didn't want to make it too confusing, but did want to put the ideas out there. I thought that the explanation might put some people off. I am a numbers person. Just tonight I was saying to someone that it is worth watching money ball for what it tells you about strategy, the baseball is not important.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
If this doesn't make sense, just say and I will try again.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
It does. I can’t believe the average Roarer gets it without the explanation.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
Okay. A correlation coefficient is a way that statisticians use to look at two sets of numbers and see if they are related. The way it works is a figure of 1.0 means everything is in exact order, so most frees for is at he top of the ladder etc, a score of -1.0 means the least frees for is at the top of the ladder. So if you give away a lot of frees, does it change your position on the ladder? Obviously, there is a lot of things that contribute to where a team finishes, so its not just the frees. In this case, there are three ways you could look at frees, frees for, differential (frees for minus frees against) or just frees against. To do this, I loaded the data of the frees for and against in to Microsoft Excel and ran a statistical function (“correff”). After looking at the effect on frees on ladder position, I found that there was not a strong link between differential and ladder position, but there was a strong link between frees against and ladder position (correlation of 0.46). That is the more frees you give away worse you are likely to be on the ladder. So in lay man’s terms, giving away a lot of frees is a more than half way good indicator that you are going badly. But … some teams rely on high pressure and lots of tackles and can recover from some tackling errors, Richmond is a good example, others give away lots of frees and really pay on the score board. Hope this helps.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Toad this is either very deep or very obscure. As Pauline said “please explain”
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
The thing about a coefficient of correlation is that it is a formula that links it all in together. I didn't include the number but it is 0.46 which is pretty significant when you consider it is only one small factor of what goes in to a team winning. So Richmond is only 1/18th of the equation.
Billbob
Roar Rookie
Haha you know it hahaha
Billbob
Roar Rookie
Richmond gets nothing lol
RT
Roar Rookie
You sort of defeated your argument about lots of frees against correlating to a lower ladder position by bringing up Richmond.
RT
Roar Rookie
...one day
Floyd Calhoun
Guest
Round 22 last season was/is not a true indicator. Essendon played well & went very close but they also had far more to play for. With 20-20 hindsight, it was about that time of the season too that Richmond began to drop off a bit. Still able to win, but not as convincingly. The Prelim Final failure was the culmination of this ill-timed & inexplicable decline.
hawker
Guest
saw both of their respective games last weekend. Tigers looking good, Bombers are ordinary. if the bombers get with 6 goals I will give football away...