Which Origin camp would you rather be in: NSW, with a settled side coming off a crushing upset win, or Queensland, who’ve made winning deciders look as easy as anything in recent years?
If you’d said five weeks ago we’d be coming into Game 3 with the series still alive, it would hardly have been the most outlandish prediction. But the way in which we’ve got to this decider? Let’s just say, to those of you who predicted the way this series has unfolded, well done.
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It’s a rarity for Queensland to be coming into a must-win Origin 3 as the underdogs, but that’s exactly what they deserve after their Game 2 performance. Their forwards were as insipid as you’ll see from a side decked out in maroon, and the backs just weren’t able to influence the game on the back of that disadvantage up front.
While Christian Welch and Joe Ofahengaue will improve the pack, the loss of Matt Gillett is a blow to Kevin Walters, particularly with Jai Arrow still on the sidelines. The Broncos veteran is a reliable defender and can be counted on for 80 minutes. With 20 Origins under his belt, his experience will also be sorely missed.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
It goes without saying that Kalyn Ponga, too, is a massive out. He might have gone AWOL in Origin 2, but played a telling hand in the series-opening victory in Brisbane, laying on two try assists in the second half.
Cameron Munster isn’t much of a step down in the No.1 jersey – and he might be a more dangerous attacking prospect than when he’s got the 6 on his back – but it does make the halves look considerably less dangerous. Corey Norman is in solid form for the Dragons, but it’s hard to think of a less-credentialled Maroons five-eighth in recent memory.
Playing alongside Norman, Daly Cherry-Evans must control the game, having hardly made an impact in Perth. It is admittedly hard for a halfback to do much behind such a badly beaten pack, and he’ll need far better service out of dummy-half from Ben Hunt.
Also look for more involvement from Michael Morgan. The Cowboys skipper is a great club player but hasn’t done much in attack for the Maroons this year, and has his centre channel was targetted by the Blues with great effect two Sundays ago. A switch to the bench, with Moses Mbye coming into the starting backline, has been rumoured, and it would be a savvy selection switch-up from Walters.
Having gone to Perth with almost as many questions over the side as they did new players, NSW know a repeat performance will get them consecutive series wins for the first time since 2005, but also well aware there’s no way the Maroons will be as listless as they were last time out.
Brad Fittler has a stronger side at his disposal than he did for the 38-6 victory, with David Klemmer a far more proven Origin performer than the suspended Tariq Sims. The Newcastle prop is exactly the kind of player you want in your side for an Origin decider.
The same cannot be said for the team’s other inclusion. Mitchell Pearce might be one of the NRL’s form players right now, but his miserable history in the NSW set-up is no secret. He’s lost all seven of the Game 3s he’s played, six of which were deciders.
It’s gone well past being a monkey on his back – the Newcastle halfback has an entire zoo on his shoulders.
Given James Maloney’s outstanding performance in Perth, Pearce would be well placed to take a back seat tonight. With so much attacking talent alongside him – James Tedesco, Tom Trbojevic, Josh Addo-Carr, Damien Cook, Wade Graham and Maloney – there’s no need to force the issue.
All Pearce needs to do is aim up in defence, kick well, let Maloney control the game and chime in on attack when the opportunity presents itself. Nathan Cleary has done less than that in his short Origin career to date, and his winning percentage is double Pearce’s. Evidently – at least when playing alongside Maloney – playing a passive role seems to work.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Prediction
NSW should win this one. Their pack dominated Game 2 and looks stronger for Game 3. Their backs can bend the line out wide, meaning they can still get solid go-forward if Queensland block up the middle as they did so well in Game 1. And if the centre of the field opens up, the speed of Tedesco, Cook and Tom Trbojevic is lethal.
The Maroons are missing three key players through injury, and have a few others playing out of position. Which, now you think about it, actually sounds an awful lot like some of the things we said about the Blues a fortnight ago.
The intangibles definitely point Queensland’s way. They haven’t lost an Origin decider since 2005. They are ridiculously adept at rising for the big occasion. Mitchell Pearce has been a bad-luck charm in this arena since he first pulled on a sky blue jersey.
But those recent – and even not-so-recent – wins in deciders came when a host of once-in-a-generation talents all somehow ended up in the same era. Pearce’s losses all came when his side had a talent deficit further in the red than a set of GFC accounts.
This time, Cameron Smith, Billy Slater, Greg Inglis, Cooper Cronk and Johnathan Thurston aren’t there to tip the balance in Queensland’s favour, while New South Wales are coming off their most emphatic win since Andrew Johns wore the No.7.
At home, Origin 3 should go to the Blues. Just.
New South Wales by six.
Insider
Roar Rookie
You didn’t read anything I wrote,
Aiden
Guest
Sometimes their influence was positive and the QLd forwards were being dominated, but Pearce was strangely anonymous or unable to conjure anything creative to break the QLD. That was the problem. And the great Qld players didn’t force him to kick poorly, or force him to run the ball down the wrong side rather than against injured players, or put his running game away.
Don
Roar Rookie
No. Bennet started the whole tactic of the on ground manoeuvring and body levering. Without his employment of Haseman and the start of the martial arts influence in how to slow the play the ball down by manipulating the man on the ground into positions where he can't get up quickly, largely by not allowing them to get their knees on the ground and locking up their arms. Bennet doesn't start it, Bellamy likely never would have gone there. Rugby League has a short memory, Bennett continues to get no blame.
Insider
Roar Rookie
Arm bars, chicken wings crushers were not as a result of Waynos pursuit of an edge, he may have employed specialists outside the Rugby League world but his focus was on limiting attacking players capacity to allow momentum, Bellamy has introduced the “ground n pound “ and “locks” that everyone has a problem with! I can’t think of a chicken wing, crusher, cannon ball prior to Craig Bellamy becoming a coach , can anyone ?
Don
Roar Rookie
Wayne Bennett was the first to employ a wrestling coach when he was at the Broncos. Chris Haseman a Jiu Jitsu expert was employed by Bennett in 1997 as wrestling coach and they were the leaders in getting body position right so as to manoeuvre the tackled player onto their back or "turtling." Bellamy and the Storm later expanded on it with grappling and perfected it. The guy who started it has dodged all the criticism and is seen by some as an anti wrestle advocate. He's a cagey one Bennett. His manipulation of media to avoid and deflect scrutiny is unreal.
Richard POWELL
Roar Rookie
"when you look at both teams, NSW seems to have the edge." It's not just an edge. It's the length of the straight!
Richard POWELL
Roar Rookie
Qld hasn't "lost an Origin decider since 2005. They are ridiculously adept at rising for the big occasion." However this time they just don't have the talent. To compare this mob to the Qld teams featuring Smith, Cronk, Thurston, Slater and an almost Australian forward pack is an insult to those great players. In game 1 Wighton takes the tackle, there is no 6 point intercept try and NSW most likely win - and after Game 2 series is over. The only time that Qld were on top in game 1 was the first 20 mins of the second half when they threw everything at NSW and came up with nothing. And Kevvie's ridiculous tactics will not save Qld this time.
Tom
Guest
Like how the courier mail gushed over Queensland's awesomeness and laughed at the Blues after game 1
Peter
Guest
Daniel, thank you. Yes, it is unlikely that the referees will enforce the rules. I’d like them to until the players (a) in some cases learn what the rules are and (b) abide by them. I am not remotely hopeful. Players will continue to ignore the rules. I think the best example still is Canterbury’s famous “umbrella defence”, which was really just the great guru Phil Gould ordering his team to keep playing offside until the referees gave up trying to enforce the rules and Gould was hailed as a genius. Nah, just a cheat.
Peter
Guest
Daniel, yes, you are strictly speaking correct. The headline for this article does not refer to Mitchell Pearce. Once you first mention him, however, you then devote 6 paragraphs to him. And wow, thank you for admitting that other players have influenced the Origins in which he has played. On the headlines question? While I cheerfully admit that I did not list each of the authors by name, just have a look at the articles published on The Roar, including the one devoted to headlines about Pearce.
Insider
Roar Rookie
Nothing will change
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
Let's just say I'm wary of writing the Maroons off. I was in primary school the last time they lost a decider.
Brian_K
Roar Rookie
They had a field day because of the wet not in spite of it. Though we will really find out tonight.
Insider
Roar Rookie
The pursuit of entertainment has destroyed the tradition and history, the ruck is like watching a game of touch footy with some clubs and a wrestling fest for others, never a balance, 1 ref and 5m would be a fantastic start,
Noosa Duck
Roar Rookie
It appears that they have now named Munster at Full back... as old mate Jack Gibson would say ....Rugby League is a team game, leave your ego at home and be a team player. When you consider how much experience that Inglis, Smith, Cronk & Thurston brought to the Qld team and the experience that had dropped out through injury, NSW certainly have a decided edge in that dept with Cordner, Maloney, Pearce, Tedesco & Wade Graham.
eels47
Roar Rookie
It's the same as the Jordan vs Lebron argument. Todays players are mostly terrific atheletes before they are footballers (or basketballers in my example). Todays game requires a different skill set. You will find legitimate arguments for both sides saying the game is better today, or it was better in the period you are referring to. Todays players are faster, but the ruck is slower. Players now kick further and higher, but there is less tactical kicking..... For the record I too prefer the 80's into 90's, but fully understand why someone who didn't see that era live and have only seen the modern game would find it somewhat boring/slow.
RoryStorm
Guest
NSW only 6 points in front at the final whistle Daniel? C'mon, I think you are being very diplomatic mate. As much as we would like to see a close game I just can't see it happening tonight. If there's no rain I believe the Blue's backs will have a field day again. They had a field day in Perth on a wet night and I expect that to continue. NSW by 20 points minimum, but as a spectator I hope I am wrong and it's anybody's game with 5 minutes to go.
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
Entirely understandable, given the last decade and a bit!
Birdy
Roar Rookie
Hope your right, I'm just the eternal pessimist when it comes to origin.
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
Yeah, NSW played the conditions in Perth better, but they still had more errors than Queensland in that game. I think the Blues backs and Cook will enjoy a dry track as much as the Maroons.