Despite their stunning win over India in the semi-final to proceed to their second straight World Cup big dance on Sunday, New Zealand will go into the final against England as considerable underdogs.
They need to do something radical if they are to do what every non-England cricket-loving nation on the planet wants them to do and lift the trophy at Lord’s – and picking leg spinner Ish Sodhi for the big match might be just that thing.
To do so would take considerable guts – after all, Sodhi’s played just once at this World Cup where he bowled six unassuming overs for 35 runs against Australia, being out-bowled by the part-time off spinners of captain Kane Williamson in the process.
He also holds a bowling average of over 36 in his 31 career ODIs to date, with an economy rate of 5.54 that’s only just about acceptable.
Take into account that the Kiwis just restricted India’s lethal batting line-up to 221 with the bowling attack that has been together for the majority of the tournament, and it would take some major kahunas to split them up.
So on that note, here’s why they should totally do that.
England’s three rampant victories over India, New Zealand themselves and Australia to steamroll to the home of cricket for the final has been built on a dominant bedrock – the opening partnership between Jason Roy and Jonny Bairstow.
They put on 160 at a run rate over seven against India, smashed the Kiwis for 123 at nearly that run rate, and most recently brutalised the Aussies with a 124-run stand going at more than a run a ball that halved a modest run chase in no time at all. And for good measure, they put on 128 – again with a great run rate – against Bangladesh in their last partnership together before injury ruled Roy out for a mid-tournament stretch.
Roy, in particular, is lethal – he averages 71 for the tournament, clobbers his runs at a strike rate of 117 – a feat only Glenn Maxwell and Jos Buttler have beaten out of the top 50 scorers – and sets a platform for England’s middle order to dominate. In the last three games, the match was effectively over by the time he got out. The last 15 times he’s passed 50 in ODI cricket, England have won.
(Photo by Action Foto Sport/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Sound imposing? It is. But he does have a weakness, and that is leg spin with the new ball. And that’s where Sodhi comes in.
The Bairstow-Roy opening stand has failed just twice at this World Cup. In their first game South African leg spinner Imran Tahir nicked off Bairstow on the second ball of the innings, and in their loss to Pakistan Roy fell to Shadab Khan – another leg spinner – for just 8, his one failure of the Cup.
Coming into the tournament, Roy averaged just 13.60 against leg-spin across his career – including T20s – according to The CricViz Analyst. It’s a significant Achilles heel across plenty of cricket.
Take into account as well that at this World Cup if Roy misses out, so do England. His two missed games were against Sri Lanka and Australia – both matches England lost. His other failure against Pakistan meant England – despite middle-order centuries from Joe Root and Jos Buttler – didn’t have the platform from which to attack a big run chase of 348, which left them vulnerable to losing wickets that ultimately cost them that game.
Additionally, Bairstow suffers when Roy fails. He’s made just 104 runs at 26 in the four innings when Roy either hasn’t been with him or has fallen cheaply, compared to 392 at 65.33 with his buddy riding shotgun.
Sodhi has opened the bowling just once in international limited-overs cricket – against Australia in a Trans-Tasman T20I series final back in February 2018, when he bowled David Warner and took one for 21 in four overs.
It’s worth noting on top of that that the Black Caps seriously flirted with the idea of bringing him in for their group-stage match against England, and ultimately came to regret it as Roy and Bairstow’s opening-overs onslaught gave the Poms a match-winning edge.
England’s opening partnership was 123, while New Zealand’s was 2 – and they won by 119 runs!
Should the Black Caps take this monumental risk, it would likely mean dropping Mitchell Santner unless they risk destabilising their already shaky batting line-up by punting one of their openers in Martin Guptill or Henry Nicholls.
This would mean putting keeper and Test opener Tom Latham in there while playing seven front line bowlers, which is hugely dangerous.
Santner has been important for New Zealand this tournament. He’s kept things tight in the middle overs and performed his role in playing every match so far. But he’s managed just six wickets in his nine games to date, and against that England batting line-up – especially considering New Zealand’s weakness in that area – you’re not going to win too many matches just by keeping things tight.
In any case, look at the way Roy took down Nathan Lyon in the semi-final to see what he thinks of finger spinners.
It’s bonkers, it’s risky and it just might be what New Zealand needs to win the World Cup.
13th Man
Roar Rookie
The one change I would make if I was NZ and this might seem risky would be if Nicholls can't play then play Blundell over Munro. Promote Latham to open and let Blundell take the gloves. Risky to give a bloke a debut in a world cup final but he looks a better bat than Munro right now.
13th Man
Roar Rookie
If Sodhi comes in its probably at the expense of one of the All Rounders, probably De Grandhomme. It's not a tactic I'd expect them to go with. Santner was magnificent against India and I'd imagine they will back him in.
Bobbo7
Guest
Can't drop Neesham. In fact can't drop any batsman for bowlers
Sylvester
Guest
This is a no-go for two reasons. 1. NZ can't afford to shorten its batting lineup given the form of the top order. 2. Sodhi has proven very inconsistent so he's just as likely to get belted.
U
Roar Rookie
I doubt they make that kind of decision this late in the game. You could argue the dropping of Guptill but his fielding is so good that it might be crucial in such a big game
U
Roar Rookie
It wouldn’t be English cricket if they didn’t have double standards
Melvin Pukely
Guest
'Kahunas' ? I believe you meant 'cojones'.
Larry1950
Guest
How is Roy playing after that tantrum on dismissal? If it had been Warner he would have got life, guess England make the rules at home.
TimO
Roar Rookie
I enjoy watching Sodhi, but hard too see how there is room for him ATM. If they were going to play Sodhi it would have to beat expense of one of the all-rounders. Black Caps have lots of new ball bowlers. They need Satner to contain in middle overs. Dropping Neesham would be a big call, because he's adding value with bat and ball and in field. CDG doing less, but can be useful if swinging or seaming, and adds balance if Southee not playing, plus can bang a quick 20 or 30. The change I would like to see is CDG opening batting as a pinch hitter, to take some pressure off Guptill until he's got his eye in, with Nicholls dropping to 5.
Carlin
Roar Rookie
I like the idea but think he is one or two games under prepared. I know Sodhi personally and one thing for sure is he would back himself to do the job. If he was to play then I would see De Grandhome miss out. His seamers could be effective with the Lords slope. The other selection dilemma is if Nicholls is ruled out does Munro come back or does Blundell (who has never played an ODI) come in?
Targa
Guest
Nah, play the same team, but open the batting with Latham. Then Nicholls can bat 5 where he averages over 50.
Paul
Roar Guru
This is called "putting all your eggs into one basket". The suggestion is simple - play Sodhi on the basis he will get Roy and/or Bairstow early. What happens if he doesn't? I have no idea how much turn the Lords pitch will offer, but it would have to be quite a bit for Sodhi to be an option, IF he doesn't get an early wicket - and that pre-supposes Williamson is brave enough to bowl him first up in a WC final. This could be viable IF Sodhi was already in the team and bowling well as a part of the Kiwi attack, but to bring him in cold, so to speak is a huge risk. I know he's a better bowler than Steve Smith, but look what happened to him when Finch tried him as a surprise last game? Sodhi might win the Cup but he could equally lose it as well.
Watcher
Guest
If Sodhi comes in it wont be at the loss of Santner. Santner keeps the run rate in check in the middle overs, along with being a more than capable batsman and fielder means he is safe. More likely the player to go would be De Grandhomme. Hasnt done much but hasnt stuffed up either. More likely a change forced with injury with Nicholls struggling. Blundell takes the gloves and Latham opens. As a Test opener it makes sense to have Latham facing Woakes and Archer. As a BC supporter I am relaxed on this game. We are the underdogs but lets see how England performs with the expe tation on them. The BCs need another 50 runs at minimum. I am quietly confident Guptill will come good. Just swing through the line and give it a lash Guppy.
I like the idea in principle, but they would have tried it in the earlier game against the poms if they were ever going to be serious about using Sodhi in one of the big finals . There is another theory of course -- NZ seamers look to have regained their confidence, especially Henry, and here is an equal chance the Roy may nick off down the slope at Lords. Roy is good, but he isn't Bradman. Sure he may take a Sodhi-less NZ apart. but he is equally as likely to suffer as the Indian top order did. The big unknown to me is the pitch. Is it a brand new pitch, how long has it been under covers. The other, and it sounds ridiculous to say because he is normally a proven batsman, but the other wildcard is Guptill. I have seen him pummel the English attack for 180 odd in a one dayer in England. At some stage he has got to come good. England will be hoping it isn't on Sunday. But if he does, watch out.