Do you remember the time when we could all agree that Israel Folau made a horrible choice?
It was in last year’s Rugby Championship Test on the Gold Coast, and with a pumped-up Argentina leading Australia 23-19, the Wallabies fullback had a golden chance to win the game after the siren.
Folau was charging towards the tryline – only five metres out – with an unmarked Bernard Foley to his right. Instead of a simple short pass to Foley, Folau tried to bash through three Pumas defenders and lost the ball in contact. Try bombed. Match over.
You’re a liar if you think he made the right decision.
You’re also a liar if you’re a Wallabies fan and think their clash against Argentina tomorrow night is the best match of the weekend.
Call it pessimistic, call it despondent, but most ways one can dice it, there’s not a heap to get excited about for supporters of the men in gold.
The team are coming off a comprehensive defeat to the Springboks at Ellis Park – spending almost two weeks in South Africa in the lead-up in Johannesburg to prepare against a Boks side missing at least six of their best and still falling well short.
Forget the yellow card to Taniela Tupou and the two bombed no tries, they were wasteful and unimaginative in attack, and sloppy in defence.
Dane Haylett-Petty (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
They are facing an Argentinian team that they are expected to beat at home. No doubt they’re tough opposition – the Pumas only going down to the All Blacks 20-16 in Buenos Aires last weekend – but last year’s loss was the Wallabies’ first home defeat to the Argies in 35 years.
Argentina have won only six out of the 31 Tests between the two nations. In a World Cup context, with only two Tests against the All Blacks and one against Samoa to come before the start of the tournament in Japan, a loss to the Pumas would weigh heavily.
Brush aside what Michael Cheika described as “good signs” in the loss to South Africa, the Aussies need a win for their own confidence but also to generate some positivity among fans.
For rugby purists, the battle between New Zealand and the Springboks in Wellington is mouth-watering. The Boks have made 12 changes to their team from last weekend, while the All Blacks have pulled a surprise by shifting Beauden Barrett to fullback to accommodate Richie Mo’unga at five-eighth.
It will be a cracker, especially given the nations will face each other again in Pool B at the World Cup.
The Wallabies have made their own changes – five to the starting side – although most have come in the backline, despite the forwards getting bullied in the Republic.
Christian Lealiifano returns at five-eighth, after last playing Test rugby in 2016. Only a massive performance from Lealiifano will bump Foley at No.10.
Will Genia, Marika Koroibete and Kurtley Beale are also added to the backline while Scott Sio replaces James Slipper at loosehead prop.
Lealiifano kicking for goal against the Lions (Tim Anger Photography)
The other notable inclusion is James O’Connor on the bench.
O’Connor hasn’t played a Test in six years and only became eligible after recently signing a Super Rugby deal with the Queensland Reds. Along with Lealiifano’s inclusion, O’Connor’s recall is something worth getting excited about.
The Wallabies need more points and O’Connor is the type of attacking spark that Cheika feels is worth a punt, even at the relatively late stages of World Cup preparations.
As a teenager, who made his international debut at 18, O’Connor was regarded mostly as a fullback and winger – although he played five-eighth as well. He was quick, with brilliant acceleration and footwork, and his kicking game was top-notch too.
But at his most recent club, the Sale Sharks in England, O’Connor spent much of his time at inside centre. Now 28, he’s lost a bit of pace and added some bulk. But he can still sniff out a gap.
If O’Connor is going to be given a legitimate chance to push for a spot in Australia’s best 23 for the World Cup, then one would assume he’s set to get 20-25 minutes off the bench this weekend.
Matt Toomua is riding the pine too, so he’s likely to cover No.10 and No.12. However, there’s the luxury of O’Connor featuring at inside centre and shifting Kerevi to No.13, where he’s been a fair bit recently.
But is it too risky having Lealiifano or Toomua, as well as O’Connor and Beale on at the same time? Is that too many playmakers? Does that mean you’ve got to keep Kerevi and Tevita Kuridrani on the field to have two hole runners and two big bodies defensively in the midfield?
Cheika will perhaps want to have O’Connor and Beale scheming together, as that combination has worked pretty well in the past. But then O’Connor might even get a go on the wing, with the plan to run off Kerevi and Kuridrani in the wider channels. The Wallabies didn’t make an offload against the Boks, so that’s an area that needs obvious attention.
If O’Connor impresses against, then is it too far-fetched to think he could earn a starting jersey against New Zealand? You’d think his only chance would be on the wing given the uncertainty in that position. Koroibete has probably just about locked in one berth, but the other is up in the air.
Dane Haylett-Petty has his admirers, while Reece Hodge hasn’t made a huge impression for the Rebels and Wallabies over the past six weeks. Tom Banks and Jack Maddocks are other candidates, but O’Connor shouldn’t be ruled out.
Dr katz
Guest
Best position? Left right out.
Masi v
Guest
I can’t believe we continue to go with Foley I’d take over him any day !!! Kerevi has to play 12 he gets exposed in the the outside Chanel’s... Is it just me or is anyone else excited to JOC back in the green and gold
Lano
Roar Guru
Best position: Maccas 2.30am, blood alcohol reading 1.14ml/ lt b.a chomping into a meal 2570 mg sugar, 2,450 Mg Salt, 0.03 mg nutritional content, bottle of cheap whisky in pocket, confused look on face. Let history be the judge.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
I am certain McCaffrey is a better player than Naisarani, and I would start him with Hooper. Wright, Samu, Dempsey, Jones, Naisarani and even Higgers would be competing for my third back row spot.
PeterK
Roar Guru
exactly The same with Wright, perhaps Valetini (but he has had so few super rugby games even), McCaffery not brought in, Jones not used.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
My issue with the selections are that we won’t really have the opportunity to see how capable either Banks or JOC are, and it’s another game wasted, seeing what players we already know are capable of.
PeterK
Roar Guru
lol exactly what I have been pushing for 2 days now except for Speight since he is not in the squad. If the centres were not working in attack then I would try JoC at 13 and leave Kerevi at 12, and if need be swap them around if it still isn't working. A lot of wasted breath and effort, I should have stopped from the beginning after 1 post though since Banks isn't in the team and JoC is on the bench. I do get sad at how conservative , and short sighted and frankly BLIND Cheika is to the problems in the team and willingness to genuinely try and fix them instead of the mantra of we are nearly there, blah blah blah. The current selection shows it. I initially did think that Foley has been dropped but reading others posts now I am not so confident and expect he will be returned despite CLL having a good game
Garry
Guest
There aren’t too many players that haven’t been ‘exposed’ in the heat of the test arena, but do yourself a favour and review a QC highlights clip. He hasn’t had much of a chance to get exposed on Cheika’s watch, unless you mean the solitary Eden park game, with a week to gel with the backline. It does make me wonder about how some of those backs that have gone through the WB turnstiles over the last four years would have fared under a more potent no. 10. Off with my rose coloured glasses, into the bin.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Okay, I agree with you there. Start JOC at 15 and if it doesn’t work, then he can move to the centres was actually what I was thinking as I was driving now. 9. White 10. Lealiifano 11. Speight / Koroibete 12. Kerevi 13. Kuridrani 14. Banks 15. JOC I agree that would have been the best backline to start with.
PeterK
Roar Guru
Start JoC at 15 if dist is not working then move him to 12 and bring on Beale at 15. Once again I am not disputing JoC is probably best at centre. However the current centres are better especially 12. So he might be the best f/b available and that is worth trying. If he ends up being the best f/b then shouldn't he start at 15 even if he was a better 12? DHP is not performing well. V poor at intl level and look how poorly rebels went (as he did) when he played f/b. Hodge was better at f/b for the rebels. Yes when he was moved to centre or wing he didn't go well, perhaps because f/b is his best position. I do think Banks is a good attacker BUT not great, he is not in the top echelon, and is not a player that teams makes special plans to nullify. He certainly has done nothing to demand the 15 jersey, to own it. Banks should be starting as so should JoC. However banks is out and little point having JoC on the bench coming on to play 5-15 mins.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Scotland only won 14-9 at the end of last season, in Scotland. Given the second half of Aus vs Argie, it’s pretty clear that last year Argie had some major capitulations.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
I think Lilo should be starting, on form, and based on familiarity with TK. The fullback can do that when he comes into attack in the line, but that either forces everyone out one spot so TK isn’t attacking at the 13 channel, or means that the 12 is sort of out of the play. Whereas if you have two powerful centres like we have and the 10 actually uses both of them, then the defence is in doubt and they can release the outside backs. Your criticisms of Banks’ attacking attributes and his distribution go way too far though. His good pass to DHP set up the first try, unlike many fullbacks he usually plays very flat, which declines his running meters somewhat. I wouldn’t have a particular issue with 11. Winger, 14. Banks, 15. JOC, except the fact that he is best at centre. If the centres aren’t working, then try him at 12 or 13. Honestly, Hodge has had a poorer season than Haylett-Petty. Makes more sense to me to pick the best performing players in each position, with the possible exception of Banks to 14 and Haylett-Petty to fullback. JOC competes for a centre spot. If the distribution isn’t working this game, then you can shift JOC to centres or fullback.
Jacko
Guest
It is from the Reds Danny but I think it will be Lucas who is the next Aus 10 longterm....Still young tho...
PeterK
Roar Guru
when you say even aust would have beaten argentina last 2 matches , would they have come close to the thrashing scotland gave them? 44-15. Aust struggle to score against Italy and Fiji!
PeterK
Roar Guru
So you would have kept Foley? I certainly would have dropped Foley and DHP. Hodge to f/b and Banks on the wing and Beale on the bench is better than what Cheika did but I would bench or drop hodge for JoC anyway. Agree with Banks on the wing no reason he was dropped at all , a better option than either selected winger. I am ignoring Speight since he is not in the squad so bringing in Koroibete for pace I agree with for this game. Also agree JoC should be starting (at 15) so there is little point with so few games off the bench. A 15 chiming in can release the centres that is the whole point, he can come in either side of the ruck and choose to be next to the 10 or on the other side, or run onto the ball himself, it is at least as versatile an option as having him at 12. I really don’t see the point off the bench. Even if he goes well he probably won’t nail a bench position unless Banks and DHP are not being recalled. Perhaps just to see if he makes the final RWC squad as a backup. Yes I would have made changes to the pack i.e LSL to the bench and try Wright just to see how he measures up, might really need him if Pocock doesn’t come back. (I would love to bring in McCaffery but he isn’t in the squad).
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
I also think that to a certain extent you’re looking to solve a problem that isn’t there. I didn’t get the impression from the match last week that the Wallabies’ backline had insufficient distribution to threaten defences. Instead, I thought the forwards didn’t lay a sufficient platform. Remember, they would have scored 4 tries but for butchering two virtually certain scores. I would have kept virtually the same backline, except swapped Banks and DHP, and put Speight on Hodge’s wing. And if we want to see what JOC can bring, then at least start him given we have 3 matches left. Instead, we haven’t really had enough time to determine what Banks brings, and JOC won’t really get enough time this weekend to determine what he brings either. Even 11. Winger, 14. Banks, 15. JOC would be a better way of looking at things. Although I’m still convinced that if the centres aren’t releasing the outside backs, this is a problem that should be fixed at 10, 12 and 13.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
They did. But that was a strange match against England, if you remember. Even the Wallabies would have beaten Argentina the last two times, if Folau has passed to an unmarked Folau. Wallabies would also have beaten Ireland if Foley had passed to Kerevi. Scotland, at their best, were built around Hogg, who is now very injury prone. I also think Townsend, as good as he is, isn’t as good as Cotter was. I don’t disagree about where Aus is at, but will reiterate that I think that something working against 10th ranked Argentina (especially off the bench) isn’t the same as it working against the really top teams. The difference between the Jags and Pumas isn’t particularly great, although the latter is a somewhat better team on paper and is better coached also.
PeterK
Roar Guru
Scotland drew with England and beat Arg last 2 times they played them both in 2018 since the new coach (44-15 in argentina in june). Of course I agree Arg are not in the top echelon, however currently aust has to measure itself against the level below since it is not showing itself to be the best of the rest either.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
No, I mean they aren’t in the upper echelons of the tier 1 sides. I think there is a pretty clear distinction between New Zealand, South Africa, Wales, England and Ireland on the one hand, and Scotland, Australia, France and Argentina on the other. Not sure there’s much to suggest Scotland are better than Aus and Argentina. I think they’ve declined a bit in the last year since they changed coaches.
elvis
Roar Rookie
Exactly, the 5/8 is responsible for 3 players outside him, 4 if the fullback comes in and 5 if the blindside winger comes around. How many playmakers do you need for 3-5 backs? The winning world cup sides have all had one dominant playmaker, and while things do change, it is the most obvious template for success.