I had a completely different article planned.
I was going to debate the merits of Josh Hazlewood or Mitch Starc being included at Lord’s, using the slope to exploit the English left-handers.
I was then going to outline that Hazlewood actually bowled much better than Starc at Lord’s in the 2015 Ashes and had a much better economy rate, although Starc is a much improved bowler now.
Then I read the weather forecast in London this week.
The Test is set for a deluge of rain all day Wednesday. There may be no play or less than 30 overs. The weather looks better on Thursday but then very sketchy on Saturday and there are some showers about the other two days. It certainly doesn’t look like it’s going to be any more than four days play and probably much less.
The Australian selectors must look at this match differently. It’s a risk and I would wait until Wednesday morning, but if fewer than four days play is forecast, then Australia should do the unthinkable: drop Nathan Lyon and go for four seamers, picking Marnus Labuschagne for his batting and leg spin.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
The Aussie batsmen will be tested by damp, seaming conditions that mimic last month’s Ireland Test at the same venue or the Australian internal game in Southampton where Cameron Bancroft and Labuschagne gritted it out.
Chris Woakes has been deadly at Lord’s. Surely England will want to utilise his talents.
So perhaps Starc, Hazlewood, Pat Cummins and James Pattinson should all have a game here. Australia holds a deadly attack of four pacemen with variation, and you could include Labuschagne for his leg spin and his extra batting.
Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne used to bowl well in tandem at Lord’s, and in 2013, Australia had a nightmare batting under cloud cover assisting the seamers.
This is different. Australia have come equipped with five very skilled pace bowlers and a world-class spinner.
Do we need Lyon’s bowling if the match doesn’t stretch the full five days? Justin Langer and the coaching staff need to have a good plan on Wednesday morning.
No doubt Langer will be very shrewd with his selection. He got it right on the brown deck in the first Test when many were questioning a few of his choices. I would have chosen the same side except with Labuschagne in for Matthew Wade, but due to the conditions and the brown deck, Langer got it right there.
He has said each Test could be different. He was wise in his selection in the first Test. Will Langer and the selectors follow the malleable strategy at Lord’s, given the conditions?
In 2015, Australia stuck with the same side that won so well at Lord’s by 405 runs and remained unaltered at Edgbaston. They were obliterated in the following Test for not assessing conditions and picking their strongest line-up.
Edgbaston was a brown deck that eventually played like a flat wicket subject to day five spin and some brilliance from Cummins.
At Lord’s, you have to suspect the ball may move around. Solid, gritty English Test technique in the first innings may be critical. County form may matter here.
Let’s see what the pitch is like early on the first day.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Oh yes!
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Hahaha Im just winding him up on occasion now as he's delusional. at least I try and substantiate my over analytics he's just click bait isn't he
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Don't get suckered into replying to Mr Butcher. As the wickets tumble, he will self-implode without any assistance!
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Be lucky to get in 20 overs today if any at all as predicted
Pierro
Roar Rookie
As predicted wednesday was always a bit of a right off chris. hence my review of a 3.5 to 4 day test match
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Well looks like I've got the rain bit right . 4 days of play with potential for another session lost friday and few showers here and there.
Mika
Roar Rookie
The only change to the side will be Hazelwood for Pattinson. If it had been a raging green top, Langer may have punted on Patto, but methinks be believes there could be a long stint of bowling in one of the innings here. It seems the Poms and curators have muddled things up here post the Ireland match. You can be sure the 3rd test will get a green top - and back comes a fresh Patto for Siddle or Hazelwood. Nice plan if it comes off. No way Siddle will be relegated to the drinks. He's too good on these decks. I'd be very surprised if Starc picked over Hazelwood (too risky), and totally shocked if they went in with a 4 quicks over Lyon. That would be pointless.
Bunratty c
Roar Rookie
Well, the final 12 have been selected....Haz/Starc in, Pattinson out. still think Hazelwood may replace Siddle.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Well the flat deck definitely means lyon is pretty much a lock (apparently its flat but lets see). Day 1 looks more and more like there will be little to no action. Our pace attack is pretty nifty this time around and Starc downhill to the lefties warrants respect but it means we need to keep four bowlers in for him to play given his limited spells and Langer wont drop a batsmen or replace one with an all rounder from the seems of it so it comes back to maybe hazel wood in to give siddle a rest for the north potentially. Interesting though as long flat decks suit siddle too as he can bowl all day and contain the score. If it was a green deck Id stick with my original premiers. Having cummins, pattinson, starc and hazel wood or siddle coming at you would be a very tricky proposition. The flat deck leaves some exposure especially England bat first and rack up some runs which is where you'd want lyon out there and can't predict to the toss. Just wondering if overcast conditions day 3 could be a handful (assuming its virtually day 2 of the test) As it stands Australia has two or three different attacks it could field really depending on starc, middle pacers and so on. Its too risky to speculate its not a really green deck . Where its flat at lords it does pay to have five mainstream bowling options in the past as the argument is the batting should be able to hold up.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Not sure Peter they lost 15 to 20 overs at Edbaston one day and a few more to bad light. Never added them back on . Is Lords under different rules
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
My first thought was no ways. But then again South Africa have a very good track record at Lord’s. Mostly thanks to their quicks. Not that they didn’t choose not to select a spinner, there just wasn’t a decent tweaker to select so backed the pace attack.
Peter Warrington
Guest
presumably added on time should make it a 400 over game rather than the usual 440ish?
Pierro
Roar Rookie
here is the site to monitor the met , Wednesday still looks like a washout for most part but the later days getting better beside friday afternoon. 4 days may be enough to get a result at lords but it is a flat wicket . Leads me to think we want a similar bowling line up , only hazel wood in for siddle who Id consider back in at headingly for his tight bowling. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpvhhdht#?date=2019-08-14
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Generally yes I2I but last issues your theory did not work after winning at Lords they got thumped at Edbaston in 2015 by not being malleable to the conditions. England warrants consideration between flat and green decks for sure. True Paine gets some input wondering how long he will be there for though and how much say he really gets. I think at lords it is a flatter deck from what larger said yesterday so in retrospect it would be dangerous to change too much only perhaps hazel wood in for siddle given he might take more wickets in a much shorter test match under 4 days thats for sure given the rain
Peter Warrington
Guest
just checked the weather and only a 70% chance of rain tonight, and not much after that.
Insult_2_Injury
Roar Rookie
You never mentioned Paine! He gets input into the side he wants. He may very well believe a seasoned spinner has the wicket taking ability on a supposed greener deck too. Langer might believe that as well, for that matter. I shake my head at these suggestions that we keep dropping form players for some supposed horses for courses advantage. A form player with test experience has to be allowed to keep a domination going.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
I can definitely see where you're coming from Pierro and it could be just the sort of light footed thinking we need. Having said that though, I think there's Buckleys chance of it actually happening. There are a number of reasons I can think of and probably some I can't but here are a few that come to mind. 1] Lyon is a point of difference for us. England don't have an off spinner to match him so dropping him seems counter productive. 2] We won the 1st Test quite convincingly and Lyon was a big part of it. Selectors are traditionally averse to breaking up successful combinations and that's probably fair enough. 3] England haven't changed their batting much and still have plenty of left handers in their side. Given Lyons track record against lefties leaving him out might be too much to ask. 4] The stats ninja's might prove me wrong with this, but I feel Lyon is the best early game off spinner I've seen. He seems to take plenty of first innings wickets because the things that help the seamers (lateral movement, extra bounce) also help him. So, even if it turns out to be a shortened match he could still take some wickets and be hard to take runs off. .. As I said earlier, there are more reasons than that but I think the few I've mentioned are almost enough to guarantee Lyon will play at lords no matter what. .. Cheers.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Yeah, the forecast for Edgebaston a few days out also had people saying it was probably going to be largely a washout, but barely any play was lost for rain at all. So we will just have to wait and see.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
I think your right and I was quick to note the pitch condition. By the way Roar doctored my headline completely. It was originally Australian selectors have a raindance to consider for selections. The roar editor made it all all about Lyon definitely having to come out where as I was clear if it was green and as its likely 3.5 days is he needed in there? I think on balance as Langer won't take out a batsmen they can't start starc as the bowling would be way to short on workhorses. Its all a balance thing according to conditions. I totally agree. Lyon was our best bowler in 2015 still arguably is outside of cummins. I wonder though If they lose day 1 to weather which looks more and more certain (maybe 20 to 30 overs tops) and with more rain about for sure. It means lyons best conditions would be day 2 or day 5 if its not raining . he may not even bowl if the rain is about as much day 4/5 and we bat first
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Paul Rain is definitely going to wipe out most of day 1. At least two sessions . Im not sure you'd take starc north at all his record is even worse up north than london as the pitches often arent as flat and dry. Interesting in 2015 marsh got root and stokes out and no one else could on a flat wicket. They were going to go on and make centuries both of them and it was critical in not letting the match go to a draw. We need to be careful after edbaston but the fact the pitch is flat brings me back to lyon and just bringing hazel wood in here. Im not sure theres a place for starc outside of london though. He's been pretty dire on northern pitches . Edgbaston world cup final as well . Starc at lords needs an extra bowler in alongside him thats for sure as he only bowls short stints. Id go hazel wood now I think for siddle as Langer won't drop any batsmen. Its a balance thing and now we know its not a green deck (apparently lets re confirm that)