As a caveat, I’d like to clearly state I am excited about the 2019 Rugby World Cup.
I believe the Wallabies can win it, but I’m well aware most people don’t. It certainly seems that most Australian rugby fans would just be happy for the Wallabies to make the semis, or at least make it out of the pool games.
But for those struggling to look forward to this year’s tournament, I can only suggest looking a little further forward to 2023. This will be the moment Australian rugby comes of age.
The obvious inference is that I’m merely expecting our Junior Wallabies to replicate their recent tournament success at the senior event four years later, and this is partly true. But there are also a number of our current Wallabies team who should be hitting their peak in 2023.
The average age of the 2015 world champion All Blacks was 29. Crunching the numbers on this year’s Wallabies and the average comes out at about 27, however that’s still deceptive.
Comparing the average ages of the forwards versus the backs gives us a better idea why the future is looking good for the green and gold.
The average age of the backs equals out to just under 29, and that’s with the outlier – 19-year-old Jordan Petaia – included in the mix.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
The forwards, however – positions that are historically suited to more mature players – come out at an average of 26. This includes Rod Simmons and David Pocock.
Our pack is young, but already full of experience. Izack Rodda (23), Lukhan Salakaia-Loto (22) and Taniela Tupou (23) are already part of the furniture in the Wallabies dressing room. But these players could feasibly be playing rugby for another ten years.
Jordan Uelese (22) and Rob Valentini (20) are two players whose impact so far has been hindered by injury, but they too could have at least another two World Cups in them.
Isi Naisarani (24) and Allan Alaalatoa (25) will be the elder statesmen of the pack in four years if they’re still there, but they certainly won’t be too old by any measure.
Amongst the current back line, only Jordan Petaia (19) and potentially Reece Hodge (25) are likely to still be in green and gold when the 2023 tournament kicks off in France.
There is, however, plenty of talent coming through.
Isaac Lucas (20) and Semisi Tupou (20) are both already impressing in the Super Rugby, whilst this weekend in the NRC, a number of young fly halfs – including Noah Lolesio (19) and Will Harrison (20) – will ensure there is plenty of competition for the playmaking duties in the years to come.
Add to this the impressive list of Junior Wallaby forwards like Fraser McReight (20), Esei Ha’angana (20), Nick Frost (20), and Angus Bell (20), there will be plenty of competition for those already in the Wallabies pack.
There is every chance that the Wallabies can shock everyone at this year’s tournament, but if they don’t, whoever inherits the coaching duties from Michael Cheika will benefit from his trust in youth.
Whilst it is popular to lament Cheika, he may be owed some credit when the young players he has blooded reach their mid-20s.
Hope can be a dangerous thing for a Wallabies fan, but there is every reason to hope that a new golden age is just around the corner.
pm
Roar Rookie
I think Kerevi is not far off too, but otherwise this is an inferior Wallabies team. 9-15 they are just lookibg for someone good enough to play each position well, rather than choosing from several strong candidates at each position. The forwards are more solid, but not exceptional. Tupou can do some exceptional stuff here and there, but he's not a great player, not yet anyway, and of course a healthy Pocock is world class
pm
Roar Rookie
They'll be all time great over achievers if they do.
Katipo
Guest
HK is politically difficult now. Plus HK stadium is old and small. Singapore, which is closer geographically, has a bigger iconic stadium. I think they could sell out 50,000 seats for a one-off Bledisloe test there. (Note: Super Rugby didn’t work in SG but that’s because it’s so poorly conceived of. Lions v Sunwolves? ‘Lions’ is the Singapore National football team... Singaporeans think Lions versus Sunwolves is an obscure game of soccer - so they don’t go. But All Blacks Wallabies has a better chance of recognition).
Mr Fox
Guest
Yes, French rugby is in rude health but the national apparatus is still very poor. It will be interesting to see what impact Shaun Edwards and other tier one coaches have on the French game. If they get their act together with their current crop of players they would be significantly better.
Bluffboy
Roar Rookie
That would be 3 days, consecutive, a big ask for the a consistent team…
Matt
Guest
No Cheika No Hooper No Hanigan No Robertson No Dempsey will be a plus. Tate McDermott, Tom Banks, Liam Wright, Angus Blyth and Harry Hockings will all be there as well.
The real SC
Roar Rookie
2023 RWC will be staged in France with the Final played in Paris. France has some appeal in Rugby. This year, Australian rugby has gone backwards with the Recent match against all Blacks in NZ where they were humiliated 36-0. Wet weather was a factor for Wallabies. With Wallabies up against Samoa in Sydney, this will be a real test for the Wallabies. 2020 will be a big year for Wallabies with Bledisloe cup played at MCG for The first time since 2007. The 3rd Bledisloe Cup is yet to be decided because of the T20 World Cup played in australia. I think that Bledisloe Cup Game 3 will be played in Hong Kong. This will mark 10 years since the Cup was last played in HK. 2021 – wallabies could be on the way up, if they obtain stability. The teams that I would expect to see in RWC France, USA, Argentina, SA, ENG, IRE, Scotland, Wales, Italy, Fiji, Samoa, Tonga, Japan, AUS, Russia, Hong Kong, Georgia, Canada, NZ, and Netherlands.
Katipo
Guest
2019 RWC could be super-interesting if NZ get knocked out in the quarter finals. For this to happen the Springboks have to beat the All Blacks in pool play. I think that's likely actually. This will push NZ to play Ireland in the quarters. And Ireland can beat them too. Then, without NZ in the tournament, Australia could win it. But then again so could South Africa, England, Ireland, Wales, France...
taylorman
Roar Guru
oh, cos underhill and curry, yet to win anything are so much better than cane and savea. Dream on...
FunBus
Roar Rookie
Arnold would get into the Welsh pack as AWJ's partner, but that's about it in my view. I can't see how he would be in the best two starting locks for NZ, England, Ireland, or the Boks. There's a bit of a changing of the guard at tighthead, but I wouldn't take AAA above Furlong or Sinckler. Hooper would be pushing to start for England, Ireland and Wales, but NZ or the Boks?
mzilikazi
Roar Pro
Nice article, Carrick. Thanks. I think there is a lot of hope for the future of Australian rugby. Many people don't believe in cycles....I do, and have hope for 2023, and before. Probably not 2019 in Japan...would love to be wrong.
jim
Guest
Ah the great Aussie sporting way Build up the future, blame everyone else for the current failings. Heap tons of pressure on shoulders not yet mature enough to take it and then kick them hard when they fail and repeat endlessly.
CHT
Roar Rookie
Arnold would make any pack, as would AAA. It would hard to leave Hooper and Tupou off the bench for any country also.
Tooly
Roar Rookie
There is a lot of difference between school boy rugby and provincial rugby, and a lot more difference from provincial rugby in Australia and even Test Rugby here. Then the big leap from there to World Class. Only Pocock would rate consideration in any of the five sides above us. The improvement needed by any of these players listed is enormous. Don’t feed them BS about how good they are.
jeznez
Roar Guru
France have won the last two U-20’s they’ve got some quality coming through. Carbonel and Joseph two in particular to keep an eye out for.
jameswm
Roar Guru
I think Angus Bell is only 18-19. Sio and AAA are still so young and not peaking yet. Current ages below in brackets). A few we need back from overseas, like Kerevi, Arnold and some others. Tupou could be a beast by then, and I wonder if AAA will play both sides. Less common now. Sio-Uelese-AAA Rodda-Arnold Valetini-Hooper (27)-Naisarani McDermott (20)-Lolosio/Harrison/Donaldson Kerevi-Petaia Back 3 no idea right now Bench Bell-Latu (26)-Tupou LSL/Coleman (27)/Frost and Dempsey (25) Powell (25) Forward pack could be very, very good by then. Uelese, latu, Tupou, AAA, LSL, Rodda, Naisarani, Valetini and others.
Ulrich
Roar Rookie
Well, SARU have told World Rugby they will not bid again.
Ulrich
Roar Rookie
Perhaps so mate. Lest it not be forgotten that Transvaal won the inaugural 'trophy'. Saffa money was and still is welcome.
Carrick Ryan
Roar Rookie
Absolutely, it all depends which Wallabies team turns up on the day really. Perth Wallabies or Auckland Wallabies.
Rebel334
Roar Rookie
Professionalism was fast tracked into rugby because of the Super League war here in Australia and NZ. It came about because half the all blacks and wallabies were targeted with huge money from rugby league, leading to the formation of SANZAR. SANZAR then signed a deal with NewsCorp to broadcast matches. Absolutely nothing to do with the 1995 WC.