Come finals time, I wheel out my favourite statistic and tell certain teams that, even though they made the top eight, they can forget about winning the NRL premiership.
I was first alerted to this particular numerical pattern in 2017 when Fox Sports pointed out that no team in the history of rugby league in Australia has won a first-grade grand final after conceding 50 points in a match during the season.
Yes, there have been differences in the way the game is officiated and how many points were awarded for certain means of scoring. But it’s been consistent as gravity for 111 years – ship 50 or more points during the season and you won’t hoist the trophy.
So who can we rule out?
The Eels made a statement and a half for their first-ever game at Bankwest Stadium, giving the Tigers a 51-6 touch-up in Round 6.
(Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
In Round 20 the Roosters ran in ten tries over the Gold Coast in a 58-6 shellacking.
And last week Newcastle ended their disastrous season with their worst loss of the year, going down 54-10 to the Panthers.
So the Tigers, Titans and Knights weren’t going to trouble the engravers at NRL HQ. I know, what a total shocker.
However, one side that is still alive this season also conceded 50-plus in a match, effectively making them walking dead.
In Round 9 Parramatta travelled to Brisbane for Magic Round, where a rampant Storm ran up the biggest win of the year, smashing the Eels 64-10.
What’s more, the blue-and-gold troops who had 11 tries scored on them line up pretty similarly to the team that will take the field against the Broncos today.
| Round 9 | No. | Elimination final |
|---|---|---|
| Clint Gutherson (c) | 1 | Clint Gutherson (c) |
| Maika Sivo | 2 | Maika Sivo |
| Michael Jennings | 3 | Michael Jennings |
| Brad Takairangi | 4 | Waqa Blake |
| Blake Ferguson | 5 | Blake Ferguson |
| Jaeman Salmon | 6 | Dylan Brown |
| Mitch Moses | 7 | Mitch Moses |
| Daniel Alvaro | 8 | Kane Evans |
| Peni Terepo | 9 | Reed Mahoney |
| Junior Paulo | 10 | Junior Paulo |
| Shaun Lane | 11 | Shaun Lane |
| Marata Niukore | 12 | Manu Ma’u |
| Tepai Moeroa | 13 | Nathan Brown |
| Reed Mahoney | 14 | Brad Takairangi |
| Tim Mannah | 15 | Daniel Alvaro |
| Oregon Kaufusi | 16 | Ray Stone |
| Manu Ma’u | 17 | Marata Niukore |
| 18 | Tepai Moeroa | |
| 19 | Will Smith | |
| 20 | Peni Terepo | |
| 21 | Josh Hoffman |
Parra deserve huge credit for their 2019.
They were abysmal last year, an embarrassment to their supporters, which was made all the worse by the fact they finished in the top four – and gave the eventual premiers Melbourne an almighty scare in the finals – in 2017.
As for what’s gone right in 2019, while it wasn’t a splashy recruitment drive, new faces Junior Paulo, Shaun Lane and Blake Ferguson have proven outstanding investments.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
And of course there has been Maika Sivo, who in his first season of top-flight footy was the comp’s leading try-scorer and, according to Ferguson, “is the best winger in the competition”.
But perhaps more important than the added troops was the soul-searching and honesty sessions held over the off-season. The result has been a side that looks much more unified than in 2018 and one with a far steelier resolve.
However, said steel was not on display on that night in early May.
In fact, while their defence has improved by almost 100 points on last year, it’s still the second-worst of the teams playing finals.
The only side that’s been worse? That’d be this afternoon’s opponents, the Broncos.
So I’m not going to write the Eels off today. They’re a fair chance of making another week. But they ain’t winning the 2019 grand final.
Because defence wins titles and teams that give up 50 points – at any point in a season – don’t have the defensive resolve to become premiers. As much has been proven for more than a century.
That said, I do look forward to people in the comments saying, “Yeah, but if…” because when I’ve pulled this stat out in previous columns, there are always those who love to rip out the hypotheticals.
Because if the Warriors, Dragons or Panthers had managed to win the comp last year…
Y’know what, it’s just not worth going in to. This stat is a truism. Doesn’t matter what might have happened, because it didn’t happen.
Get 50 put on you, you won’t win the comp.
So Parra have had an almighty season and their fans should be justifiably proud. I reckon they’ll even get past the Broncs.
But if Clint Gutherson is holding up the Provan-Summons Trophy on the first Sunday in October, I’ll do the Great North Walk in a pair of blue-and-gold dick stickers.
Joe Frost
Editor
Blake was at a different club (and a Kiwi international played centre in his place), D Brown had played a grand total of three first-grade games, and Evans didn't play because he'd been dropped to reggies. The Storm didn't beat an undermanned side, they flogged the best Parra had to throw at them (sans N Brown). Don't kid yourself with false equivalence.
Tim
Guest
No Blake, no D.Brown, no Evans, no N Brown. Understrength. Completely different side. If Roosters were without Manu, JWH, Cordner and Keary, would you say they weren’t significantly under strength?
Dan Floros
Guest
like everything else in this Universe...there is a first-time for..yep everything..so one day this stat will go..Jow..it is great looking in hindsight..like trump can't win, 8th neber beats 1st (parra 2009), and I cant believe its not butter...
Stevo
Guest
No team beaten by 58 points in a final series has won the premiership the next season.
Jimmy Two Hats
Roar Rookie
Parra did alright for the walking dead....if they can maintain that intensity, as well as not play with predictable set plays against Storms next week, they may have a chance. Bellamy and the coaching team are going to dissect the hell out of today’s game.
Anthony Knobel
Roar Rookie
That’s why we have refferees that interfere in rugby league so we do not get the true difference between the teams through the season
Anthony Knobel
Roar Rookie
The Brisbane showponies have been flogged to nil
Anthony Knobel
Roar Rookie
The class left Brisbane when they brought in these new low class players who have shown their class-very very low
Anthony Knobel
Roar Rookie
Finally the Queensland show ponies are shown to be no more than donkeys especially their young players and then they began to play dirty.
Joe Frost
Editor
Where the coach chooses to play them doesn't change the fact the choice of troops from Round 9 is essentially the same as this afternoon. The team that lost to the Storm were not viciously understrength.
Joe Frost
Editor
Right you are, that’s my bad. Story has been updated.
mushi
Roar Guru
It is simply true in the same way any other "no team which has X" stat is. I'm yet to see a credible argument as to why we're adamant that it is amazingly predictive.
JV
Guest
Not saying your main point isn't right, but the Knights have won two premierships (1997 & 2001) and their biggest losing margin in either of those seasons appears to be 40-0 to the Eels in 2001 (the very team they beat in the grand final). https://www.nrl.com/draw/?competition=111&season=1997&team=500003 https://www.nrl.com/draw/?competition=111&season=2001&team=500003
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
With Turbo Manly would have been a definite contender for at least the GF if not the title. By the same measure though if the Rabbitohs not been understrength with nany key players out for most of the season then they may have won the minor premiership. Swings and roundabouts. Btw, Souths don’t have a REAL FB either and ATM that is one of the key factors that sets the Roosters, Raiders and Storm apart from the rest. But the Bunnies WILL bounce back! :thumbup: :stoked:
Noosa Duck
Roar Rookie
Many can't win without Turbo....well that went out the window well and truly... Parramatta will not make the 8 well that went out the window...... Can't see the Raiders knocking off the Storm in Melbourne at their home ground....that well and truly went out the window...... The Rabbitohs will certainly give the Roosters a run for their money this week......yeah sure ...... By rights neither Parramatta or Manly should be in the finals but they are ....suddenly both these teams not only believe they can win , they actually are and doing a pretty good job of it.... Never say Never .....
Tim
Guest
"What’s more, the blue-and-gold troops who had 11 tries scored on them line up pretty similarly to the team that will take the field against the Broncos today." Yeah, similar lineup, except for: 4 - Blake for Taka 6 - Brown for Salmon 9 - Mahoney for Terepo 12 - Ma'u for Niukore 13 - Brown for Tep 14 - Taka for Mahoney 15 - Stone for Mannah 16 - Niukore for Kaufusi 17 - Tep for Ma'u So apart from those 9 changes, nearly identical lineup. Not that I disagree with the rest of the article. Parra fans know we'll probably get pumped if we progress to week two but we'll just enjoy the ride.
Brian Smith
Guest
Storm beat Eels in magic round at Suncorp. As you were.
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
If course I want my team to win the whole bag. But I am realistic. I stoked they went from last year to here now. So I’m happy as.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
I wouldn't want to be Brad Arthur for quids. He seems to be on a hiding to nothing no matter what he does. He would probably even receive criticism if the Eels lifted the trophy this year. Settle down Eels fans, that's NOT going to happen. But I will give Arthur his due. Des Hasler took a rabble of side from 2nd last (15th) to 6th on the ladder and has now guided his side to victory in a sudden death game of week 1 of the finals. People, like myself, are even calling for Dessie to be named "Coach of the Year", and rightly so. Meanwhile Brad Arthur took his side that finished stone motherless last on the ladder (16th) and got wacked with their 14th wooden spoon to finish 5th on the ladder, one position ahead of Manly, in just 12 months. Has that EVER happened before? He even coached the Eels to a victory over the much hyped and heralded Sea Eagles DOUBLING their score and winning 32 - 16 in the final round of the competition. What else does the bloke need to do to earn at least a little respect? That said, I don't rate BA as a coach and I put him in the same class as Paul "Mary" McGregor, Nathan Brown, Stephen Kearney, Trent Barrett, Anthony "second-year syndrome" Seibold and Jason Taylor (and the jury is still out on Ivan Cleary). :laughing: :laughing: :laughing:
Paul
Roar Guru
This sort of stat is clearly capable of being broken - just not this year, by this team against the opposition it has to get past. As you say, Parra have done well to get into the finals but it's hard to wee them getting to the big dance with the sides they'd have to face, let alone winning the lot.