The 2019 AFL Brownlow Medal count promises to be one of the best in recent memory, with an open field and little in the way of a clear favourite.
To suss out the 2019 Brownlow Medal favourites, we’ve made use of the top-quality number-crunching performed by Stats Insider.
Their Brownlow Medal report includes projections for all the biggest points of interest – not just the winner, but the leaders at different stages of the night, and who’ll get the most votes in each club.
Patrick Dangerfield
Odds: $2.60
Chance: 55.7%
A strong finish to the 2019 season has seen the 2016 Brownlow winner emerge as the favourite to win this year’s award.
Dangerfield was arguably best on ground in his last three matches of the season, and could come from the clouds late in the count to snatch it at the death if he picks up nine votes here.
He’s not the unbackable favourite he was three years ago, but it’s hard to argue against him being the leading contender.
Lachie Neale
Odds: $5
Chance: 7.5%
After enjoying a stellar first season for the Brisbane Lions, Neale enters the Brownlow Count amount the absolute top tier favourites with the bookies.
The big question for Neale is how the umpires will view those games where he was prolific, but not necessarily impact, such as his 50 possessions against Richmond in Round 23.
Neale played every game in a side that won plenty of matches, and after making headline with his trade move he will have the umpires’ attention.
Nat Fyfe
Odds: $6.50
Chance: 22.9%
Another player in the mix to win his second Brownlow, Fyfe has the second-best percentage chance as ranked by Stats Insider despite missing two games during the season.
While maybe not as eye-catching visually as his 2015 Bronwlow year, Fyfe’s 2019 season had a simillar level of dominance when it comes to his statistical output.
2019’s been inarguably his best and most complete year since then, and many would happily call him the best player in the AFL.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Marcus Bontempelli
Odds: $6.50
Chance: 18.1%
Bontempelli enjoyed a career-best season in 2019, and that has deservedly put him in the top three percentage chances to win, as per Stats Insider.
The Bont averaged nearly a vote a game in seasons 2016 and 2017, but has put forward career-high disposal, clearance and score involvement numbers this year that blow away those previous efforts.
Every chance of becoming the Western Bulldogs’ first Brownlow Medallist since Adam Cooney in 2008 on Monday night.
Patrick Cripps
Odds: $11
Chance: 2.8%
After another excellent season, and his first as captain of Carlton, it makes sense to say that Cripps could be a serious Brownlow contender.
The Stats Insider model has him sitting a ways off the top pack though – Cripps missed two games during the season, and was heavily tagged in many others.
Still, he had more than a few outstanding performances where he seems a certainty to pick up the three votes. It would be against the odds, but he’s a real chance.
Nick
Roar Guru
"So decimated by injuries". Any excuse to paper over a mediocre team mentored by a poor coach
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Thanks for your assessment of my response, at the same time as agreeing with me. Nice work. Melb and Bris May have made the finals at those times, but they were not the power teams by any stretch. You went over board in your original response about Fyfe, you missed the fact that it‘s almost always the case that the umps give votes to the most obvious players in very strong teams. So, we are back where we started.......this is a best and fairest in the comp award. A Fyfe or Kelly type is just as worthy as a Dangerfield.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
I remember thinking early in the year, as Kelly and Duncan were the stars, that Danger had been relegated to cameo roles. He certainly exploded later in the year but I wouldn't be surprised if his first half of the year leaves him quite a bit off the pace at the midway mark.
6x6 perkele
Roar Rookie
Upset Tonight, so many teams have won enough games for the unexpected to happen.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
I suppose that doesn't apply to Cripps or Bont for you? To do it in a team so decimated by injuries to quality team mates would make it even more meritorious. Fyfe to win from Lachie Whitfield.
Yawn of the Dead
Guest
he will probably have to wait until he comes home to Punt Road to win one.
Yawn of the Dead
Guest
it feels like a Priddis year. Prestia?
Nick
Roar Guru
Look, i disagree with none of that. It's just that good players are made to look even better in ordinary teams, and the umpires zero in on that, because they'll dominate the stats page. It not a personal gripe on Fyfe. I was peeved Ablett won it in 2013. He had a gun year, but the team plan was obviously "give the ball to Gary" and he just hoovered up possessions...the only thing umpires look at now. But, just to provide some context to your poorly exampled response Stynes and Voss won the medal in the same year their teams made the finals. brisbane finished 3rd in 1996! Kelly won it when Sydney did poorly. In fact, it's very rare for a medallist to win it in the same year their team did not make the finals. Shane Crawford was the last in 1999. Kelly in 95. Along with Ablett, they are the only players in the AFL era to win it in a team with a w/l record below 50%. All - keep that in mind when betting. Fyfe statistically has a mountain to overcome.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
But that's not what that medal is awarded for. And of course the counter to your argument is that..............of course players who win it are usually (almost always) from strong clubs (of the moment).........because their team mates make them look good. So, what's wrong with a true champ from a weak club winning it....against all odds? Nothing. Were Stynes, Kelly or Voss unworthy in the 90s? No, absolute guns all of them, just as Fyfe is.
DTM
Guest
For me, the most influential player of the season is Grundy. I know ruckmen don't win the Brownlow in the 21st century but I think he deserves to be considered amongst the midfielders. Other than Grundy, I'd like to see Neale win it - he has been instrumental in lifting Bris from outside the 8 into the top 4 or Cripps who has carried Carlton for 2 years.
Nick
Roar Guru
It would be a disgrace if Fyfe won it. It should come from players who actually led teams to victory. Fyfe is a quality player, but he's made to look a lot better because the rest of Freo are rank ordinary.
IAP
Guest
He is a fine style of a lad.
Rissole
Roar Rookie
You'd think Bont is the one neutrals want to see win.
Nick
Guest
A little birdy has mentioned to me that Stats Insider may be live-tweeting these as we go...
IAP
Guest
Danger looks unders for mine, with Fyfe a bit overs. Fyfe is a huge chance I reckon. I'd love to see my man Bont win it but I don't think he can. It'll be very tight at the top with a big drop off after that.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
"The Brownlow Medal report" is outstanding and worth viewing by all those interested. It would be good to have a simpler schedule that would allow viewers to determine whether individual players are ahead or behind their predicted results at certain rounds through the night -- for example after rounds 6, 11 (before the bye), and 17.
Hawk12
Guest
I think danger wins it. He was immense late in the year when the cats needed to find form. And he will vote well at other times in the year. Would love to see Grundy or Cripps win it. Both were instrumental to their teams this year. Not that Neale and bonts weren’t either. No hawk holding Charlie this year that’s for sure. Worpel and hendo will get few votes here and there. But that’s about it.