Japan’s victory over Ireland has been described as the “Stunner in Shizuoka” and a “seismic shock“.
Much of the coverage of Japan’s win on Saturday night has compared it to the Brave Blossoms’ victory over South Africa at the 2015 World Cup. However, comparing these two matches does a disservice to Japan and ignores certain factors that suggest Saturday’s result was not the significant shock that it may seem.
Firstly, Japan are far from the minnow in world rugby they once were. In the past three years, they have established themselves clearly as the next best contender outside of the tier-one nations. Since 2015, they have only lost once to a non-tier-one team.
In the Pacific Nations Cup this year, Japan were dominant and beat Fiji, Tonga and the USA by at least two scores. Further, Japan have shown an ability to test the top-tier nations in key matches. Last year, Japan were good enough to lead England 15-10 at half-time in a friendly at Twickenham before fading in the second half. Japan also tied a Test match with France in Paris in November 2017.
Japan also had a style of play that was well adapted to test Ireland’s weaknesses. Offensively, the Brave Blossoms tend to mix quick hitting forward play with a desire to move the ball wide in attacking areas. This ability to throw the ball wide can be effective against the blitz style of defence employed by Ireland.
An example of how this can work is seen with Japan’s match-winning try. In an attacking zone, and with Ireland’s defenders drifting towards the centre of the field, Japan moved the ball quickly to Timothy Lafaele, who had a two-on-one outside him. He took the advantage and an excellent flat pass to Kenki Fukuoka saw Japan score.
(WILLIAM WEST/AFP/Getty Images)
Ireland use a simple offensive game plan that relies upon playing close to the ruck through the forwards. Japan’s defensive strength is with their forwards, and Ireland’s conservative approach played right into this strength. Japan’s backs lack size, and an opposing team who is more willing to shift the ball outside is more likely to test Japan’s defensive integrity.
Ireland are also not a team that is currently capable of putting any nation away. In 2019, Ireland have played 11 matches, and their highest score in those matches was 29, and that was against Italy. In only three of those 11 matches have Ireland scored more than two tries in a game. Two of those three games were also against Italy, the punching bag of European rugby. Knowing all of this, even if Ireland played at their best, Japan were always likely to be in contention.
The last indication that this was not a surprise result was in the way that Japan bossed the game. The Brave Blossoms had slight leads in possession and territory and also gained more meters in the kicking game. These are measures that tend to be predictive of strong tournament performance and are also good measures of the more dominant team in a given match.
These stats can be compared to Japan’s victory over South Africa in the 2015 World Cup. In this match, South Africa had 55% to 45% possession, won the territory game 58% to 42% and also gained more metres by foot and on the ground.
Despite this dominance, some key mistakes from the Springboks resulted in Japan scoring enough to win. This type of match – where the better team has more of the ball and territory yet still loses – is undoubtedly a shock. Saturday night was not such a surprise.
Any loss by a tier-one team to a tier-two team is an upset. However, this does not mean that Japan’s victory over Ireland is a shock. To describe it as such ignores Japan’s quality and the unique advantages that were offered to Japan in playing at home against an opposition who were not well designed to take advantage of Japan’s weaknesses.
The test for the Brave Blossoms will now be to maintain that level of dominance. Their next two games are against Samoa and then Scotland, both of whom are very beatable.
Win those and Japan are guaranteed to reach the knock-out stages of a World Cup for the first time, where they may get the chance to meet South Africa again.
The difference is that in the 2019 World Cup, a Japanese victory over the Springboks may not be quite so surprising.
Jon
Guest
No confusion here. Japan will advance but will be beaten by the Springboks.
Sailosi
Guest
Immediately after that SA warmup game my brother and I immediately put money on Japan to top the group. I saw enough in them to go well.
Charging Rhino
Roar Guru
OB I was cheering Japan on all the way. Maybe a part of me wanted Ireland to “join the club” too. Lol. I hope Japan top their pool and make the QF, how good would that be for them!? But I don’t think the Boks will ever take Japan lightly again. In the warm up they played their 1st team, didn’t show any of their cards and yet comfortably won it at a canter.
Harry Jones
Expert
The Boks will definitely prefer to face Japan or Scotland; but Ireland won’t intimidate this squad.
Peter
Guest
I had a good laugh at an Irishman having a whinge on an Irish page about “but but Japan has foreigners playing for them!” Just like those well-known Irishmen CJ O’Stander and Bundi McAki.
Old Bugger
Guest
And the same could be said of each Home Union side who are or have been coached, by Gatland, Schmidt, Jones and Cotter.
Old Bugger
Guest
That's water under the bridge CR plus as anyone will say, you never show your hand in a warm-up, pre-tournament match. Im sure now that the real deal has started, we will all see a different effort, from both teams. It remains which side will be the hungrier if and when, they do meet.
Charging Rhino
Roar Guru
Only 3 weeks ago (6 September 2019) the Boks beat Japan 41-7 in Japan in their humid conditions. And left a few more tries out there. Beating Ireland (who are ranked higher than the Boks) is still a massive upset.
mzilikazi
Roar Pro
Very good article, Cameron. Thank you. I fully agree with you that Japan have improved so much since they beat the Springboks in 2015. I would say that while they have improved a lot in more recent times, their ascent to this level has been happening over many more years. As far back as 1973, flying wing Masaru Fujiwara gave notice that Japan would become a serious contender one day in world rugby. Couple of things from the Irish game. 1. I was very impressed by the Japanese scrum. 2. That lovely try might not have been if the laws had been applied properly by Angus Gardner. Two or three Japanese forwards went off their feet and past the ball on the first ruck just to the right of the posts prior to the try. Would have been a shame for the game if that had happened, but by the laws, a penalty should have gone to Ireland.
Derm
Roar Guru
“Ireland are also not a team that is currently capable of putting any nation away. In 2019, Ireland have played 11 matches, and their highest score in those matches was 29, and that was against Italy. In only three of those 11 matches have Ireland scored more than two tries in a game.” Hmmm. Ireland were beaten fair and square by Japan but not sure if the above statement is accurate, if you look at last season and this one, remembering that Ireland’s season ends in June and starts in Aug. They’ve played 15 tests with 52 tries in which they scored more than 2 tries in 9 tests, and won 11 of them. Even if you look at the 11 tests in 2019 only, they’ve scored 3 tries or more in 6 of them. 2018-19 season Nov tests vs Italy 8 tries – 54-7 W Vs Argentina 3 tries – 28-17 W Vs NZ 1 try – 16-9 W Vs USA 8 tries – 57-14 W 6N tests Vs England – 2 tries – 20-32 L Vs Scotland 3 tries – 22-13 W Vs Italy 4 tries – 26-16 W Vs France 4 tries – 26-14 W Vs Wales 1 try – 7-25 L 2019-20 season RWC WU Vs Italy 5 tries 29-10 W vs England 2 tries 15-57 L Vs Wales 2 tries – 22-17 W Vs Wales 3 tries – 19-10 W RWC Vs Scotland 4 tries – 27-3 W Vs Japan 2 tries – 19-12 L By way of comparison, Wales won a Grand Slam in the 6 Nations last season with try scoring rates of 3, 2, 2,2, 1 in their tests. 4 tries less than Ireland. And England scored 5 against Scotland but conceded 6 to them.
Homer
Roar Rookie
Nice article. Thanks Cam.
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
Japan have benefited hugely from major intellectual input of other countries discards. Eddie Jones and Jake White come to mind. But many others.... Anyways personally I love it that they have the ability to cause the odd major upset... But... As a Bok supporter, all things being equal would far prefer to face them than Ireland in the quarters, assuming of course we get there ourselves..
Anibal Pyro
Roar Rookie
Well, Cameron, excellent article. I believe Japan are able to win against Samoa and the scots, but I do not think they can defeat this Springboks.
Homer
Guest
Excellent informative article. Thank you Cameron. They have one othet possible strength - their preferred tsckling style of going low means they have less risk of collecting penalties and yellow and red cards.