And then there were two.
After 192 regular season matches, the distribution of 1,152 Dally M Medal votes and eight finals matches, the premiership race is down to just two teams and it will be left to the Sydney Roosters and Canberra Raiders to fight it out for the ultimate prize at ANZ Stadium this Sunday night.
The Roosters will be attempting to become the first team since the Brisbane Broncos in 1992-93 to successfully defend a premiership in a unified competition, but they will have to overcome the fairytale team that is the Raiders if they are to also go back to back for the first time since 1974-75.
This puts Trent Robinson’s men in a similar situation to 2003, whereby a fairytale team was standing in the way of them and a successful defence of their premiership, having won the title in 2002.
That year, the Chooks started as favourites to retain their title, but ended up losing to a Penrith Panthers side which in 2001 had finished on the bottom of the ladder.
They will also be hoping to send one of the game’s all-time greats out a winner after Cooper Cronk announced a few months ago that he would retire at season’s end.
Cooper Cronk and Cam Smith. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
After losing to the Rabbitohs in Round 1, the Roosters would rack up eight straight wins, including huge victories over the Broncos and Wests Tigers, as well as a win over the Raiders in Magic Round, before falling foul of the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium in Round 10.
That would trigger a form slump which saw them lose to non-finals teams the Knights, Panthers and Cowboys, while they were also pipped by the Melbourne Storm at the Adelaide Oval in Round 15.
Following the conclusion of the Origin series, the Roosters would rack up seven consecutive victories before hitting a hurdle in the final round, losing to the Rabbitohs for the second time this season at ANZ Stadium.
That defeat, however, proved to be meaningless because the Chooks were already guaranteed to finish second on the ladder.
But the Roosters would defeat their bitter rivals when it mattered most, thrashing the Bunnies by 30-6 in their qualifying final to progress to the preliminary final for the sixth time in seven years.
They then held off the Melbourne Storm by 14-6 to qualify for their eighth grand final this century and make it nine out of ten at the SCG this year, the only blot being their Round 1 loss to the Rabbitohs in March.
Now, they face a Raiders side whom not many gave a chance of reaching the finals this year, let alone contending for a premiership, following two consecutive seasons of finishing 10th on the ladder.
Going into the 2019 season, the Raiders’ best result under coach Ricky Stuart – who played at halfback in each of their three premiership victories in 1989, 1990 and 1994 – was reaching the preliminary final in 2016 which they lost to the Melbourne Storm.
John Bateman of the Raiders (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
At the end of the regular season, the Green Machine finished in the top four – for just the fourth time this century – with a record of 15 wins and nine losses, with the largest defeat being by only twelve points against the Storm at home in Round 2.
In contrast to the Roosters, whose longest winning streak this year was eight games (Rounds 2-9), the Raiders’ longest winning stretch was four games, achieved twice (Rounds 3-6 and 17-20).
In the run to September, they would suffer three defeats by four points, including those to the Roosters (Round 21) and a shock final round home loss to the Warriors, costing them a top-two finish, which would’ve been their second in four years.
They also lost young forward Hudson Young to an eight-week suspension after he was found guilty of eye-gouging the Warriors’ Adam Pompey in that said Round 25 match.
With the grand final to be the third match that he misses, it means he will not be allowed to return until Round 6 next year.
The Raiders would put behind the disappointment of losing three of their final five matches to again upset the Melbourne Storm on their home deck (they’d also beaten them by 22-18 in Round 22), winning by 12-10 to progress straight to a home preliminary final.
Then, in front of a record home crowd, they would outlast the South Sydney Rabbitohs by 16-10 to progress to their first grand final in a quarter of a century, sending their fans into delirium in the process.
For Ricky Stuart, who coached the Roosters to a premiership in 2002 but has not tasted the ultimate success since, it has in some way vindicated his decision to return to the nation’s capital in 2014 when the club was on its knees.
The lure of coaching the club he played over 200 games for, as well as his desire to move his family back home, proved too tempting, and he now has the chance to join Tim Sheens as premiership coaches in the nation’s capital.
Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
If Stuart and the Raiders do salute, then it would come exactly 17 years after the 52-year-old coached the Roosters to the 2002 premiership, becoming one of only eight men to win a first-grade title in his rookie year.
Coincidentally, he will come up against one of them, Trent Robinson, who did the exact same thing when he steered the Roosters to glory on October 6, 2013, twelve months after replacing veteran coach Brian Smith at the end of the 2012 season.
Thus, October 6 could prove to be a lucky day for either Stuart or the Roosters, who won their 2002 and 2013 premierships under rookie coaches, now combatants this Sunday, on this exact day eleven years apart.
For the Raiders, Iosia Soliola, who previously played under Stuart at the Roosters early in his career, will rack up his 200th game against his former club on Sunday, and a win would mark the perfect celebration to the milestone.
Now that you’ve got the info, it’s time to crunch all the important numbers below.
Roosters versus Raiders
Sunday, October 6
7:30pm
ANZ Stadium, Sydney
This season
Round 9 (Magic Round): Roosters won 30-24 at Suncorp Stadium.
Round 21: Roosters won 22-18 at GIO Stadium.
Last meeting in a finals match: Roosters won 38-12 at Allianz Stadium in the 2004 fourth qualifying final.
The stats that matter
* This is the Roosters’ 31st grand final, and fourth this decade, while this will be the Raiders’ sixth grand final but first since 1994. The sides are aiming for premiership number 15 and four, respectively.
* This is the first meeting between the two teams in a grand final, and the first in a finals match since 2004 when Ricky Stuart’s Roosters defeated the Raiders, then coached by Matthew Elliott, by 38-12.
* This is the first time a Ricky Stuart-coached side has reached an NRL grand final since he oversaw the Roosters’ loss to the Bulldogs in 2004. He is aiming for his second premiership as a coach, 17 years after after leading the Roosters to the title as a rookie coach in 2002.
* This is also the first time Stuart coaches against the Roosters in a finals match.
* Joey Leilua is the only player in the Raiders’ playing squad that has previously played in a grand final – in fact he was part of the Roosters side that lost to St George Illawarra in the 2010 grand final earlier this decade.
* Conversely, from the Roosters’ side named to play this Sunday, only Nat Butcher and Sam Verrills have not yet won a premiership medal.
* This will be the first time the two sides play in Sydney since 2015.
* The Canberra Raiders have never won a finals match at ANZ Stadium (a 30-12 loss to the Bulldogs in the third qualifying final in 2006 and a 38-16 loss to the Rabbitohs in the second semi-final in 2012).
* During the three years in which the Roosters played finals under Ricky Stuart (2002-04), they won two from four matches at the ground (the 2002 grand final and the 2004 preliminary final).
Match predictions
Margin: Roosters by eight points.
First try: James Tedesco (Roosters), Nick Cotric (Raiders)
Clive Churchill Medal: Tedesco (if the Roosters win), Josh Papalii (if the Raiders win)
Meanwhile, the NRL Women’s premiership will also be decided on Sunday with reigning premiers the Brisbane Broncos to come up against the St George Illawarra Dragons in the afternoon.
It will pit the competition’s best defence against the best attack, with the Broncos allowing their opponents just twelve points (and none against the Roosters in Round 2) while the Dragons scored 54 points across their three matches.
Apii Nicholls of the Warriors is tackled by Jessica Sergis of the Dragons (AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
Having won their first six matches in the competition, the Broncos last week suffered their first defeat when they lost to the New Zealand Warriors by 10-8 at the Sydney Cricket Ground last Saturday night.
That put the Warriors in position to reach the grand final, before the Dragons defeated the Sydney Roosters by 24-16, thanks to two tries from Jessica Sergis (one of them an intercept try), to overtake the Kiwi-based team on percentage and take their place in the decider.
Pivotal to the Dragons moving into second place was their 26-6 win over the Warriors in the standalone match at Mount Smart Stadium in Round 2, in which they were down 0-6 at half-time but put on 26 unanswered points in the second half.
The Red V will have learnt from their 14-4 loss to the Broncos in the first round, in which they were level 4-all at half-time but capitulated in the second half due to poor decision making.
It’ll be hard to predict a winner with any real confidence, though you get the feeling that the Dragons have built momentum at the right time and will fancy themselves against arguably the competition’s early benchmark on Sunday.
A win for the club would see them bookend this decade with premierships, after the men’s side broke a 31-year title drought with a 32-8 win over the Roosters in 2010.
The clash between the Broncos and Dragons comes 26 years after their men’s sides met in back-to-back grand finals in 1992-93, won on both occasions by the northerners.
Whoever is judged best afield will receive the Karyn Murphy Medal.
NRL Women’s Premiership grand final
Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons
Sunday, October 6
4:05pm
ANZ Stadium, Sydney
This season: Broncos 14 defeated Dragons 4 at Bankwest Stadium in Round 1.
Scoose
Roar Rookie
In no way am I saying it's a certainty, it's just my read on how I think it will pan out... I hope I am wrong, because I want to see the Raiders win, but just don't see it happening...Have a good day bud.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Hey Geoff how big are those butterflys? Yeah that's what I mean, the Raiders need to score 20 plus so conservative footy is No good. They won't win it 8 to 6. The Raiders have points in them so they can surely do it. The only worry I have in their defense is that sometimes the outside backs dont back themselves and you will see them slide. That's death against the Roosters. Get up and at em every tackle it's the only way. Get up, hit and stick. Best of luck , they will definately be getting my support.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
This David and Goliath clash has the feel of the 1997 GF about it and the Knights won that one in a thriller over Manly. Miracles CAN happen. Mind you, the Knights were juiced up to the eyeballs on peptides so that helped. :laughing:
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
"Roosters have beaten the Raiders twice this season" And the Rabbitohs beat the Roosters twice but look what happened when they played a third time and Souths were understrength. As the super ad sats, past results are no guarantee of future success. The Raiders need to get off to a fast start and stick with the Roosters for the first 40 mins then it's anyone's game.
Edward Kelly
Roar Guru
This will be the only game I have to listen to the Channel 9 commentary all year. Hopefully the next TV deal gets rid of the Grand Final monopoly. Not certain how many Raiders game Ray Warren has called this year but I bet he mucks up their names all the time, he doesn't bother doing any research before the game, just reads off a cheat sheet someone else prepares for his anecdotes.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Hey jimmy - the Raiders have scored 24 and 18 points in their two games against the Roosters this season - the Roosters scored 30 and 22. If the Raiders can replicate that and score at least 20 in the Grand Final they can win based on their defence. The focus will need to be not letting the Roosters get out to an early lead. They also need to target and contain Tupou and Tedesco who were their main threats last time. Easier said than done but if they are all on the same page anything is possible.
DNZ
Guest
It's possible but I am pretty certain the Raiders will make him play for the Mounties before they let him go somewhere else for cash. They paid $500k to Wigan for him and longer term agreements provide security to him if it didn't work out. No doubt they'll offer him an improved deal if they can offload Leilua but they're really under no obligation to play ball with Moses here. They're paying Sam Williams more to play Mounties than they would Bateman so they can comfortably ride this out.
farkurnell
Roar Rookie
Bit more at stake this time DNZ.let Bates go out in a blaze of glory,this could be his last game in green.Thats the thing about the NRL - a club unearths a good value talent n everybody wants him. As a neutral observer I’d love to see a fast open GF and so would the Crooks,but somehow I don’t think Ricky will play it that way-he’s too shrewd.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Well how do you score three trys against the Roosters..? Well i reckon Papa has one more in him this season but that leaves at least two more to get. Well ya won't get one with a high kick to Tupou but ya might get one with a kick for Croker in the centres. He is a great catch so the little lob for him is the go . Number three has to come from Hodgeson . I have no idea what but he's good enough to engineer something. Just let him work it out. Now the Roosters need 20 plus to win . They can still do that but what a game we will have if they need 20 plus to win it. One last thing the grubber is a waste of time against the Roosters. They won't let one through. Still kick it but just treat it as an opportunity to get six again. Don't chase through the line, just have someone ready to pounce on the loose ball after the Roosters block the kick. Six again every time. Now you have been told Ricky.
mushi
Roar Guru
If Friend is fit then Sam V has to sit. I’m not buying the hyperbolic wraps on him at the moment. I think it’s a product of him exceeding expectations by such a large mark we’re glossing over the flaws he does have. He is prone to giving poor service from dummy half when we’re on the attack and he gets rushed by his own desire to keep the momentum going. He also has a habit of darting from hooker but then not really finishing his run off, unless he’s got a line break chance he slaws slows down and then gives it to a forward who has checked his run and typically gets less metres than Verrels would have. You can see the team wanting him to just commit to the scamper, take the extra metres without sapping a forward’s energy and create a roll. That’s not to say he isn’t a future talent. His issues are composure/experience related and if he can get those reads down pat and add 5 kgs his ceiling is higher than Friend just due to athleticism and agility. It will be an issue for the team going forward, as they need to give Sam time in the middle, but trying to go back to back isn’t the time for a learning opportunity and Teddy gets in and plays “dominant pack” hooker anyway reducing the main weakness of Friend.
DNZ
Guest
Didn't work at all at GIO when the two teams met. The Raiders will need something other than niggle to knock the Roosters off and I think that's gonna be luck.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Good - I want the Roosters to have their best team possible out there when they lose - Jake Friend as well
mushi
Roar Guru
But in a one off game that’s not a stretch! I remember that Panthers GF loss it felt like all game tri colours were just waiting to click. The panthers had finished with the MP but they’d also had not many (if any?) out with rep footy in the middle of the year, whereas that roosters team had 9 players in origin. There wasn’t any urgency in the roosters but then it didn’t feel like it was needed. Byrne got run down, but it felt like the cracks would appear. Penrith scored with about a quarter to go, but it felt like the roosters had two tries in them, just need some passes to stick and it would be fine. But we just kept not executing, passes didn’t stick and the less fancied Panthers get the trophy, the cover tackle from Sattler becomes a part of league folk lore (I’m sure by now some reports have him starting his run in Ashfield, changing trains and still getting to Todd) . I suppose that’s why we play the games.
farkurnell
Roar Rookie
Albo ..that tactic has been tried in past GF’s- the spoiler niggle employed to put the classy attacking team off. Will JWH take the bate?Probably yes. I can see Joey n Bate sent out on a search n destroy mission.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Unless the Raiders can put the Chooks off their game with a bit of "aggression & niggle" , I think the Chooks might prevail with their extra attacking options & stronger bench. There will still be some mouth watering match ups right across the park - JWH v Papalii, Radley v Tapine , Cordner v Bateman, Cronk v Wighton , Mitchell v Leilua, Tupou v Rapana . Others will likely dominate their positions eg Tedesco, Hodgson, and there are sure to be some surprise performances, either good or poor. Hopefully the officials don't become the story of the GF as I expect they may be put to the test in this one.
farkurnell
Roar Rookie
In stead of the First Try scorer market I’d prefer the First Sinbinner market.My money’s on JWH
Sideline Eye
Guest
TV viewers have a CHOICE. Channel 9 or Channel 9? If Erin Molan is involved in any way I will mute the sound & listen to the radio commentary. Either David Morrow or Andrew Moore DESPITE Luke Lewis.
Birdy
Roar Rookie
Ricky's Raiders in a thriller. Dragon chickies in a canter. Finally um, what was the other game that CH 9, the NRL app and all other forms of advertising seem to be overlooking? Maybe they think no one is really interested in the Q cup and NSW cup. I mean who really cares about a competition that covers from Darwin ( in popularity) to New Guinea, the Pacific islands all of Queensland and , well I was going to say all of NSW but let's just say most of Sydney and soon to be Pacific island countries. Burleigh v Newtown. I'll go Burleigh. We shouldn't really promote these type of games it might lead to talk of possible expansion.
Rob
Guest
I just can't see how the Raiders win unless they can improve their attack drastically in the space of the week. The Roosters weren't at their best last week and they still kept the best attacking side in the comp to 6 points. As a neutral I wan't to see a close contest but I think we'll get a pretty one sided affair with the Roosters going back to back.
Jewboy
Guest
This would be the first time the Roosters have had their full roster to pick from for a long long time.... their main problem now seems to be who they are going to drop...scary thought.