Essendon have stuffed up the draft

By Charlie Keegan / Roar Guru

Essendon have had middling success for years now, having made the finals two of the past three seasons, but trading in a very proactive and aggressive way that is associated with a club inside their premiership window.

The latest draft shows the ambivalence of the list management team to strong inside bulls.

In 2019, Essendon finished eighth, barely scraping into the finals on percentage and wins. Their best football was electric, entertaining and powerful. Their worst was listless, apathetic and frustrating.

Essendon were in the bottom third of the competition for marks (87.6 per match), clearances (36.3 per match) and goals (11.1 per match).

This paints the portrait of a side that had to grind out every single win, and had a small margin for error when facing top eight teams. Some of this could be attributed to their immense injury load, with many of their best 22 players missing several weeks throughout the season.

Despite this, there was a clear pattern of Essendon being forced into playing a coal-face inside game throughout the season but being unable to do so, forcing Conor McKenna and Adam Saad to play a back half run-and-gun style. This style works sometimes but runs the risk of leaving Essendon open to the counter attack.

(Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

As a result of this, the loss of clearances and contested possession led to big losses against the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide. It was clear that the smaller inside midfielders Essendon prefers and the big-bodied half forwards they had retrofitted into the midfield were not getting the job done.

Let’s review the players the Bombers have signed through the draft period.

At pick 30, they took Harrison Jones (197cm, 75kg) – a lightly built key forward prospect who was expected to go in the top 20. As such, Essendon did well to recruit this player where they did.

At pick 37, Nick Bryan (202cm, 87kg) – a big-bodied ruckman who has shown some promise throughout the national carnival, but is largely surplus to requirements given the presence of several talls.

At pick 56, Ned Cahill (178cm, 78kg) – a lightly built small forward who gut-runs all day. While he shows promise as a wingman or a forward pocket, he would lack the presence to be an inside midfielder.

At pick 63, Lachlan Johnson – the son of Brisbane Lions midfielder Chris Johnson who is a hard-at-it midfielder with the size and temperament of his father. Due to the rupture of an ACL ligament, he is unlikely to play next year.

In the rookie draft, Essendon nabbed Mitchell Hibberd. The 23-year-old averaged 25 touches per game as an inside midfielder but is lacking in fundamental skills as indicated by his delisting from North Melbourne. He could be the powerful inside distributor that Essendon have been crying out for over the past two seasons, but this isn’t proven.

As Category B rookies, there’s Ross McQuillan – a 20-year-old, 188cm Irishman with pace to burn, who could become an outside midfielder as he has the prototypical size and speed – and Cian McBride – an 18-year-old, 197cm key defender with raw talent but great physical KPIs, making him an interesting project player.

In the trade period, Essendon got two players. One was Andrew Phillips, who provides good ruck depth for Tom Bellchambers and a good option while Sam Draper is recovering from an ACL re-construction.

The other is Tom Cutler, a big-bodied outside midfielder and half back with a booming left boot. He is perhaps too similar to other Essendon players in that he primarily plays on the outside, but the club could potentially convert him to an effective third tall defender or inside midfielder.

Each of these players could slot into the other 17 sides as potential project players. But when considering Essendon’s specific context – recruiting aggressively like they’re in the premiership window and played meekly in a style not suited to the modern game – picking project players is a poor decision.

Essendon need to pick a core group of players that can develop effectively into what Essendon need, and as much as their run-and-gun style is attractive, poor use and morale lets Essendon down at times.

While the tumult of the last few years is not to blame on Adrian Dodoro, the difficulties the Bombers are having finding an appropriate inside midfielder are.

The Crowd Says:

2020-01-11T03:51:13+00:00

greggy

Roar Rookie


philips will be a very good recruit for essendon ( iff he gets rid of the injury curse) had a great first year for carlton then had 2 years of constant injury, i think that was the reason carlton parted with him, but has great ability good tap ruckman and takes nice grab up forward

2020-01-10T11:28:35+00:00

greggy

Roar Rookie


true tiger fan, you have sized dodoro up perfectly, his importance is so much more valuable to him than essendon football club, will have to widen the doors to get his head through

2019-12-09T12:54:42+00:00

Graeme

Roar Rookie


Thanks for the article on the Drafts Chuckakhan, its great to hear a range of perspectives on what is always going to be a subjective issue. Personally, I thought we did well in the National Draft, with key forwards and ruck more pressing issues than the midfield. I think our perceived midfield weakness and the need to attack off half back via Saad and McKenna wouldn't be such an issue if we got first use of the ball more consistently. Phillips could be a great pickup and even surpass Bellchambers as our No. 1 ruckman by the end of the season. Hibberd and Townsend could both play a useful role in clearances, but I'm also not sold on the idea that we need more big bodied mids, One player I think was missed more than we realised was Kobe Mutch. If he is fit he'll help the ball retention and clearances. As will Will Snelling, regardless of his size. Is Jayden Laverde a chance to get more midfield time this season? The only draft pick I was surprised at was Ned Cahill. But, if Fantasia is going at the end of the year and Mosquito and Begley aren't walk up starts in the best 22 then he might play more than I first thought. And, Fantasia was drafted at #55 in 2013 and we know how that has panned out...

2019-12-07T03:44:23+00:00

Aransan

Roar Rookie


Devon Smith alone will make a significant difference, if Daniher can get anywhere near his 2017 form he will make a huge difference, and if he can do that he will likely be happy to stay. Essendon were always going to ask for like for like replacement for Daniher, Sydney were never going to do that and the draft picks offered wouldn't have achieved that. Daniher was ill advised to seek a trade. Given Essendon's age profile there is great potential for improvement from their younger players such as McGrath, Parish, Francis, Laverde, Dylan Clarke, Matt Guelfi. Other young players who could improve are Jordan Ridley, Josh Begley,and Kobe Mutch. Sam Draper who is yet to play a senior game will be a very good ruckman, and we will start to see Brandon Zerk-Thatcher this year. We were crippled in the ruck last year with the late retirement of Leuenberger, the ACL injury to Draper and injuries to Bellchambers. Zac Clark was a less than adequate replacement. Our ruck stocks have improved with the recruitment of Phillips and the availability of Draper. Bellchambers may have a better season with his body standing up. Our late draft picks enabled us to pick players who will be good but will require development, recruiting players more ready to go would have given us less upside.

2019-12-05T10:47:17+00:00

Paul

Roar Rookie


I didn't follow the draft to closely so I reallt can't make a specific comment. I'd raise the point re Daniher though... He wanted to leave and the Swans were willing to dance. He was/is considered a very important player to Essendon and they rightly held out for appropriate compensation, and must have thought they would get it in some form if they used their first two picks as coverage for a potential loss. From that perspective I take the authors point, well made. I guess the broader issue is this: when you finish middle of the road, you get middle of the road picks. Unlike the year Essendon scored Saad, Stringer and Smith it seems there was no barbeque stopper. Without a truly established midfield with the right inside/ balance yes its going to be a few more years. From a positive point of view, they've improved marginally but the question will now be where will the improvement come from? Woosha's in his final year, and I just hope for all concerned Essendon can make the second week in the finals.

2019-12-03T01:53:21+00:00

Anthony

Guest


Agree to disagree then. I would rather a ruck with scope to play forward, who also has tremendous upside. Bianco is another sub 180 player (of which we have too many already) with not much of a contested game. Great kicking skills and above average athleticism, but we have other priorities. Ralphsmith was a forward/winger who I liked, but again his contested game is average at best, but again we have other priorities. Rantall I would of been happy with. This was a very even draft and I believe it was smart of us to get the talls now, since we have very few young kpfs/rucks. I know they were inconsistent, but they have very good athletic profiles, as well as many AFL traits. I believe they can be developed into really good players. I am curious though, who are all these better choices at pick 56 that you would take over Cahill?

2019-12-03T00:21:54+00:00

Aransan

Roar Rookie


There is a very good chance Daniher will stay. I see Harrison Jones as being at least a long term replacement for our second tall forward -- McKernan, Stewart. Nick Bryan was recruited to be Essendon's long term ruckman to replace Bellchambers/Phillips. Every club should have a developing ruckman, Sam Draper has now moved past that. No doubt the re-signing of Daniher will be good material for the media for the rest of the year -- I don't know why players and coaches can't serve out their contracts without this speculation.

2019-12-02T12:12:31+00:00

Tristo

Guest


Bigger issue for me is the half pregnant strategy across the off season. They proudly fought tooth and nail to keep Daniher, but then used their (poor) draft picks to cover him as though he left. Using your first two picks is a very expensive insurance policy. Better to back themselves in to keep Daniher and address the needs you raise in the article, or bite the bullet, trade him and use pick 5 to take Fischer Mcasey or another highly touted tall. Instead they are stuck with a player who doesn't want to be there and will lose all value if injured again, and a couple of project talls who are unlikely to cover him in any case.

2019-12-02T10:46:17+00:00

Aransan

Roar Rookie


Bellchambers has been consistent when his body has been right -- that is the problem. I expect Sam Draper to be a regular in the last third of the season.

2019-12-02T10:43:49+00:00

Aransan

Roar Rookie


Excellent comments.

2019-12-02T00:51:37+00:00

The Brazilian

Roar Rookie


Think you'll find Phillips to be far more consistent than Belly. I'm tipping him to be your no.1 ruckman by mid season.

2019-12-02T00:21:36+00:00

JamesH

Roar Guru


This analysis is based on a few flawed perceptions. Yes, Essendon could do with some size in their midfield but their biggest problem was ball use. Their forward line was gutted through injuries and didn't gel at all with the midfield. The main factor in Essendon being hurt in clearances was their lack of a quality ruck option. Belly is no better than solid (and got injured) and Zac Clarke had a few absolute mares. Phillips could surprise a few but he'll turn 29 mid-season and he's not going to be a silver bullet. The idea that a quality young ruckman is surplus to requirements is ridiculous. You've also said Essendon recruited like they were in the premiership window, which just isn't true. Clubs in the Premiership window recruit mature players to fill specific list needs. Look at Hawthorn - Gibson, McEvoy, Frawley, Hale and Lake were all picked up to fill positional needs and support the core of a side that could contend, and were all in the latter half of their careers at the time. Stringer, Smith and Saad were all 23-24 with their best footy still several years ahead of them. They were brought in because they fitted a particular age profile and could later become key parts of a flag puzzle. Of Essendon's 'big four' recruits, only Shiel could be described as a player who was targeted by a team ready for a flag, and I think that's a stretch. He was still 25 at the time. Getting back to your main point, though: big inside mids who are also rated as quality ball users go in the top 10 of the draft because there are so few of them. How were the Bombers going to address that need with a couple of picks in the 30s? Next year's first rounder was off the table because they've traded their first pick out three years in a row. The Bombers needed another young tall forward, and you've already noted that Harrison Jones was an astute pickup. Tick. Despite your comment about 'several talls', they also desperately needed another ruckman. Again, tick. Then you get down to the 50s and 60s, and I'm really not sure how you think Essendon was going to improve their midfield there. They could have found a big body, but would they have been talented enough to push out any of Merrett, Shiel, Heppell, Parish or McGrath? At that point in the draft you just take the best talent available, and Cahill was a genuine slider. Lachie Johnson is speculative but again, pick 65. Then you knock Hibberd's selection and say his ability isn't 'proven'. Mate, which draftees ARE proven? It's the rookie draft; if we can get 70 games out of Hibberd then it's a big win. Aside from anything, his excellent year in the VFL as an inside mid at least shows he can mix it with big bodies. Rather than telling us that Essendon botched its picks, perhaps you should tell us which gun inside mid they should have taken at pick 30+? The reality is that Essendon didn't have the capital to acquire a gun inside mid in this trade/draft period. They were far more likely to find talented talls in the 30s than talented mids because the nature of the modern draft is that taller players tend to slide further. Considering the picks they had to trade or draft players in, I'm pretty rapt with what they did.

2019-12-01T00:20:55+00:00

Aransan

Roar Rookie


I see Phillips as more of a depth player and we certainly needed that and didn't pay much for him, we will probably need to get another such player before Bryan is ready for the AFL but we won't get high level talent in that way.

2019-11-30T21:37:57+00:00

Cracka

Roar Rookie


No chance.

2019-11-30T21:37:08+00:00

Cracka

Roar Rookie


Essendon paid very little to get Andrew Phillips from Carlton and I think he will go okay as he can float forward to kick goals, can mark the ball around the ground and wins his share in the ruck, its a great pick and will add to the depth in the ruck stocks at very little cost to the Bombers, but I still think the bombers needed to bring in more midfield talent with speed before going for a young ruck in the draft, not that its an issue bring the kid in to develop, the point being what do Essendon need next year and 2021 and for me I would have like to see them bring in a couple of top end draft talent through their club and looking at Andrew McGrath as an example of why the impact getting in kids in the first 10 pick of the draft is so important as they can be improving your list very quickly.

2019-11-30T21:12:10+00:00

Aransan

Roar Rookie


Unless you pay very big in either contract or picks or both you will only get mediocre ruckmen ready to go. Sam Draper has been our developing ruck for the last 3 years, and if not for his ACL he would have been ready to go in the second half of last season and he will be high quality.I can't see why Nick Bryan can't be ready in 3 years and again he will likely be a high quality player. We may need one or two fill in rucks while that is happening but at least we have given ourselves every chance of having top quality rucks for years to come. Admittedly Draper was selected as a rookie as an 18yo but the later picks that we had in 2019 made drafting a high quality ruck perfect sense.

2019-11-30T20:48:39+00:00

Cracka

Roar Rookie


Getting these players into the list like Hibberd will continue Essendon down the same path as they have been traveling for the last 4 years and I can't see them improving to the point of playing in a grand final or winning it, for me I see the list management a little confused in which direction they are going, they have gone and got a young ruckman who will take 4 to 6 years before playing every week the up side to this he could be the next Max Gawn but he is long term and the question is, is that what the Bombers need in 2020? In the draft I thought getting a hard running inside mid who can run both ways would be what Essendon needed, maybe they didn't have the picks or didn't want to trade out players to get the picks. If they had traded out Daniher and Fantasia maybe they could have brought in this sort of young talent. Daniher - Sam Flanders (mid), Will Gould (defender). Fantasia - Miles Bergman (winger/half forward), Dylan Williams (small forward). Anything may of happen if they had trade Daniher to Sydney and Fantasia to Port Adelaide so who know and we will never know as it didn't happen, but for the Bombers to increase their depth of talent by removing 2 players for 4 players in the top 30 of the 2019 draft these kids will all be playing AFL in 2020, and I know people will say Daniher this and Daniher that but the fact he Daniher wants out and this tells me Essendon will never get 100 percent effort from Daniher. But as a wise man once said 'life is like a box of chocolates and you never know what your going to get', a bit of luck throughout the 2020 season and no injuries and the bombers have as much chance of making the top 4 as 12 other clubs and from there anything can happen.

2019-11-30T14:36:00+00:00

Simoc

Guest


If Worsfold teams have 12 of the best position players in his team he can win the side a flag. Asise from that they're doing time and talking the talk.

2019-11-30T11:36:02+00:00

Aransan

Roar Rookie


Nick Bryan was rated highly, his DOB is 22/10/2001 -- big players with late year birthdays tend not to get noticed. He is obviously a talent but common wisdom is that rucks shouldn't be drafted with high picks, rookie list them when they have matured from secondary leagues. I was hoping to get Ralphsmith and also Riccardi but I wouldn't criticise our selections. Clubs have a lot more information available to them than we have -- often there are good reasons why some players slide in the draft.

AUTHOR

2019-11-30T10:21:47+00:00

Charlie Keegan

Roar Guru


Yeah I rate it, Mitch Hibberd is the right sort of size and weight for an inside extractor.

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