In May Perth Glory were moments away from lifting the A-League trophy when they fell to Sydney FC in penalty kicks.
Now, less than seven months later, last season’s premiers are languishing at the bottom of the table with only one win from seven fixtures.
Glory have gone from heroes to zeroes.
A closer look at some of Perth’s results from a tactical and statistical perspective show that while things are definitely not going to plan for Tony Popovic, they might not be as poor as the table reflects at the moment.
There are both good and bad things going for last season’s runners-up, so let’s start off with the good news for the Glory fans looking for some hope to cling onto.
(Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
The good: Glory are not the worst team in the league
Before getting into this, it’s important to understand what exactly expected goals (xG) is. Here’s an in-depth definition from the BBC:
“Put simply, it is a way of assigning a ‘quality’ value (xG) to every attempt based on what we know about it. The higher the xG – with one being the maximum – the more likelihood of the opportunity being taken.”
I understand that expected goals might be a confusing concept to get your head around, so please feel free to comment if you have any questions and I’ll do my best to answer.
Glory have created chances worth an xG of 10.55 yet have scored only seven so far in the season. On the other end of the pitch they are underperforming the numbers, though not by as large a disparity, conceding 10 goals from an xG of 9.43.
This leaves Glory with an xG difference of +1.12 when their actual goal difference is -3. This has come from a combination of poor finishing, quality goalkeeping and sometimes downright unluckiness.
This means there is a good chance that if Tony Popovic’s teams continue creating the same opportunities, they should pick up some wins and crucial points before too long.
(Paul Kane/Getty Images)
The bad: They have still dropped considerably
Tony Popovic’s men might not be the worst team in the league, but they certainly aren’t close to playing like they’re best either. It’s quite surprising to see that last season’s premiers have gone from the best squad to an average one given most preseason expectations.
Perth’s xG difference of 1.12 might be better than their reality, but it still has them firmly as a middle-tiered team in the league. Here’s the full table for reference.
So even if Glory (and the rest of the league) were playing to expectations, they would be hovering around fifth or sixth, which is still disappointing for a team that was comfortably the best team throughout the regular season.
Perth’s results might improve, but if they want to retain their throne this season, they will need to play a whole lot better than they are now.
The good: Perth still have a quality front line
And performing to those standards should not be too difficult seeing as Perth retained most of their best players from last season.
Diego Castro continues to age like fine wine and is at the fulcrum of the team, while Chris Ikonomidis looks destined for bigger things and it’s a minor miracle he’s even still in Australia.
The team even added Bruno Fornaroli to replace Andy Keogh, though this might not be as good a move as was expected previously. Although Fornaroli has not been terrible, he offers a similar skill set Joel Chianese and Ikonomidis provide, whereas Keogh gave a more physical target.
The front line is still one of the best in the league, and if they can find the rhythm of last season, they will surely start scoring goals regularly.
(AAP Image/Tony McDonough)
The bad: Unusual lapses in concentration for a Popovic side
Defensively, though, there looks to be an unusually high number of lapses in concentration, especially for a coach like Popovic who has become renowned for defensive stability.
Glory are not being beaten for a common weakness in one or two specific areas; it’s just the fact their players are losing focus at crucial times. Here are just two examples: first, when Jacob Tratt was easily pickpocketed by Samuel Silvera and scored a quality goal and, second, the captain’s unnecessary tug at Milos Ninkovic’s shirt to give Sydney FC the lead very early into the game, meaning Glory was chasing from the first moments.
It’s great to see Castro track back all the way into that area, but there was absolutely no need to pull Ninkovic’s shirt and it cost them dearly.
These defensive issues might be coming from the fact the Perth defence has been fully renovated and is now missing the leadership and composure of Shane Lowry, Jason Davidson and Matthew Spiranovic, but there should still be enough talent in the current crop that this should not be an issue.
The good: Perth have more than enough time to come back
Since the A-League was formed in 2005, only once has six points been enough for bottom place after seven matches. The gap between Perth and sixth spot is only two points.
This season could be the most competitive year ever for the league, with arguably all the teams looking evenly matched and little to no freebies like the Mariners and Phoenix of years gone by.
So although Glory are last, it would take only a few wins on the trot to see them reach the top six and possibly perhaps as high as fourth. Given that xG numbers show that they might have been unlucky with results so far, it wouldn’t be a huge leap to say that with a bit more good fortune they will be back in the mix before long.
The bad: Popovic changing last season’s winning formation and the change in how opponents play against them
Last season Popovic’s men became masters of transition, with Ikonomidis, Castro and Chianese all making the most the ample space provided by the opposition when winning possession.
Things are very different this year, with teams now comfortable to surrender the ball to the premiers and look to hit them on the counterattack. Glory now average 55 per cent possession this season, up from 51.9 per cent last year. The initiative is now with them to attack.
The change has meant Popovic has switched to a 4-3-3 formation rather than the successful 3-4-3 last season. It shows that the Asian Champions League-winning coach is looking for answers, but it’s still not entirely clear whether this change will be the solution.
Conclusion
Overall it’s clear that if they continue to perform like they do, Perth will eventually rise up the table. Though issues in their defence and being forced to change their style from last season might mean that they’re not the dominant of last team, their lethal attack should be enough for them to at least reach the top six.
Nemesis
Guest
Looks like Perth's xG & xGA stats were a good prediction for tonight's match. I thought Perth would give City a smack. And they did.
Shabab Hossain
Expert
Unfortunately I don't have those kinds of stats to work with, but that would be super interesting if I did! But as you said, his speed can lead to things that I do have data for. But as I said before, if there are any players you're curious about, I'd be happy to make this type of graph for whoever you'd like to see, so please do @ me whenever you're curious. :happy:
Lionheart
Roar Rookie
Got it. Very good, thanks Shabab. You’ll need to account for Halloran’s speed too, but then I guess it’s already there, influencing many of the other stats.
Shabab Hossain
Expert
Great to hear you liked it! Yeah mate, you’re right xGA is the total expected goals conceded from all of the matches so far this season. Not sure if you have Twitter, but if you do feel free to @ me if there are specific players you want to see! I do a lot of player graphs to highlight stats that are important to their position. Like this one for example: https://twitter.com/ShababHossain13/status/1200947121014239232
Lionheart
Roar Rookie
I'm a day late but thoroughly enjoyed your analysis. Thanks for introducing us to the expected goal metric. Just to clarify, on goals against that is the Xg (total) of the goal scored against a team, right? It would be good to see individual player Xg ratings. I'd imagine there's be a few disappointed strikers around the A League. It's the human factor - can't measure that - that really counts. Keep up the good work.
Shabab Hossain
Expert
xG is a strong method to understand which teams are playing well and which ones aren’t. Of course that doesn’t mean you’re going to win games, but generally, if you play better than your opponents you should win more games. This won’t always be the case, but it should be for the majority of fixtures. I think your point about football and goal space is a different topic entirely. Agreed that it’s hard to score goals (which is why it’s a low scoring game) but if you create better chances more often, you will score more often over the long term. But thanks for reading and glad you liked it!
Shabab Hossain
Expert
Probably because teams are comfortable with Perth playing in front of them and passing the ball sideways and backwards, and not enough risk in their game to go for Glory (pun intended)
Shabab Hossain
Expert
What an analysis mate! Don't even need me :happy:
Jordan Klingsporn
Roar Guru
Another stat I've just discovered, Perth have the highest pass accuracy this season.
chris
Guest
xG and a team performing well (even better than their opposition), doesn't necessarily equate to winning games. (Even in the longer term). To win football games you need to score goals and football is probably one of the most (if not the most) difficult to do this. A small area protected by a gk. In the rugby's for example, if you are the dominant team, you have a large area to score points. Ie the try line. Good article : )
Nemesis
Guest
"I’ve seen Perth play each week. They are a mile behind Sydney, who’s games I have also seen each week." No harm having that opinion & observation. I have a different observation & it's good to have these stats validate what I've observed. Results matter, but, in our game, results don't always correlate to performance. That's why Shabab's introduction of these xG, xGA statistics are valuable to me.
Fadida
Roar Rookie
I've seen Perth play each week. They are a mile behind Sydney, who's games I have also seen each week. Agree on WSW totally
Shabab Hossain
Expert
Thanks very much Jordan! I think Reddy's still an OK keeper, but agree that Meredith hasn't been the same attacking force as Davidson. Change of strategy too because since Popa plays with 4 at the back, fullbacks need to be a bit more wary when pushing up.
Nemesis
Guest
This article uses stats - not subjective observations, but stats - to show that Perth's football plan is: a) getting them into high value positions to score b) restricting the opposition from getting into high value positions My interpretation of these facts, would be: a) Perth's midfield are doing a terrific job setting up good chances, but the attackers are not taking their chances &/or the GK/defenders are pulling off great saves. Against MV last week the reason was MV's defenders desperately blocked shots & the woodwork helped twice. b) Perth's defence is extremely unfortunate in that the few times they allow the opposition into high value scoring positions, the opposition is taking the chances. My summary would be: Perth is playing good football, but the results are not yet coming. I'd rather be in Perth's position, than be a team that has no plan, but had some good results (eg WSW). That's not going to succeed over 26 matches. I'd rate Perth's football at the same level as: Sydney & Adelaide. I'm not yet convinced by City. MacLaren is finishing off chances but the build up is nothing special. Perth should give City a smack tomorrow.
AndyAdelaide
Roar Rookie
i like brimmer and wilson, i think theirs a couple of real players there that might flourish in a different system with the right coach. we were supposedly offering margush (who i feel is a better keeper than izzo) for either brimmer or wilson. Margush would be a better bet than reddy, nowhere near mistake prone
Fadida
Roar Rookie
Am I alone in thinking that Perth have flattered to deceive, and are exactly where they deserve to be? Why? 1) defensively porous, partly due to personnel changes, partly due to a lack of screening from an unathletic midfield (and Djulbic in defence) 2) overplaying in the final third. Castro is no doubt talented, but his failure to play an early ball into the box is killing them. How many times does Fornaroli make a run, only for Castro to change directions 4 times before either playing the ball back, or into the areas around the D? Ikonomidis is guilty also, but not to the same degree. Their play in the final third is deeply flawed and the lack of width and insistence of trying to play 1-2's centrally around the box makes them very predictable. Throw in a lack of a runner from midfield getting into the box and they are toothless. 3( Popovic Jr's. The elder may have scored a goal but he is the most immobile 18yo I have ever seen. Add him to Kilkenny and Juande and you have a pedestrian midfield. That the younger one has seen any game time shows a lack of squad depth this season. They won't finish last but they aren't finishing near the top either, unless they find pace, mobility and a better structure in the final 3rd - a big transfer window needed.
nevyn
Guest
The defence is an issue, and the personnel is a downgrade from last season. In Lowry and Spiranovic there was a great combination of strength and composure. Mrcela looked competent when he played but he's been missing since the end of last season. Grant was rarely selected last season as he's prone to positional errors and poor decision that cascade on the rest of the defence such as stepping out of the back 4 at the wrong time or going to ground rather than standing up his player. He's also a significant downgrade when playing out from the back (he resorts to hoofing it under even mild pressure). Not sure about Greg Wuthrich either, he seems to lack pace but also can't direct the back four and as soon as he loses a covering defender he struggles to stop opponents 1 v 1. Franjic is about the same as last season and Meredith has been solid but only played 1 and a half games. They also lack Davidsons engine from last season, he was a quality outlet from defence and helped them control build up in the way they preferred. I've not had an issue with Popa playing his sons, as long as it's not an issue within the team. They've been solid without being spectacular but question marks remain how they start over players like Brimmer, Harold and Wilson who seem to forever be relegated to the bench. But the biggest issue for me is that Glory haven't adapted to a change in tactics from opponents, they're no longer willing to leave themselves open for the counter but Glory have had the same approach except the space in behind is not there. I think Popa's second season issues are more about opponents adapting to his counter attacking tactic. And unfortunately Castro does not help the situation, his wandering around the pitch to pick up the ball and try to beat every player slows the game down for Glory and robs them of the ability to affect defences. Essentially Ikonomidis and Fornaroli are having to break down 4 defenders between them because Castro has gone off wandering deep into midfield and no other players step forward to take his place.
Jordan Klingsporn
Roar Guru
Have been loving these articles Shabib Fully agree with this. As a Glory fan, Liam reddy has been a bit of an issue, i think he's made the least amount of saves for a GK this season. Also, James Meredith hasn't impressed me one bit, he doesn't have the Jason Davidson attacking affect.
Waz
Roar Rookie
Yeah, the data allows some quantification of what is actually happening. If you have a high xG but you’re not scoring then it’s time to look at structures and players particularly you’re striker.
Shabab Hossain
Expert
That's the Australian sporting culture though. Australian sport fans from various different codes value the finals just as much, if not more, than the regular season. I think the A-League more than any other Australian competition has found a healthy balance when it comes to valuing the two parts of the season. As someone who grew up watching football mainly from Europe, obviously I have a different opinion which is like yours, but I think many people do value the finals and there's nothing wrong with that.