Who wins the strangest NRL season in history?

Anyone who has read any of my columns in the last month will know I have been fairly sceptical about the NRL’s ability to return on 28 May. But it’s looking more and more likely the game will be able to return on that date, albeit without fans.

And because that’s only three weeks away – and because I’m sick (and I don’t think I’m the only one!) of the media carry-on about Latrell Mitchell’s training regime, which player has or hasn’t got a flu vaccination and which TV network is going to pay up for the rights – let’s spend today talking only about the on-field product from this moment forwards.

The NRL have announced plans for a 20-round season – which means 18 rounds to go once we resume – and while the Roosters may have wanted competition points from the first fortnight of the competition to be eradicated, that thankfully won’t be happening.

And I say that as a Dragons fan, you know, sitting on zero competition points.

It was, however, hilarious that the request came from the Roosters, and you do have to wonder if Nick Politis would have been making the same request if his club were sitting on four competition points like the Eels, Knights, Raiders, Storm, Broncos and Panthers.

Moving on from the utter hilarity of that request, though, it does bring us to another point: what will the mark be to make the finals this year?

Generally it has been around 12 or 13 wins in a season out of 24 games. Taking the law of percentages, that means it’s going to be around 11 games out of 20 to make the finals this season, with roughly 13 or 14 wins required to make the top four.

We can sit and chat about who the best teams are until the cows come home, but consistency is going to be a difficult thing to come by in this shortened new competition, during which other factors will constantly be constantly at play and home-ground advantage won’t be a factor for at least a number of weeks.

That said, those teams sitting at the bottom of the ladder are going to need to find a way to be consistent – winning potentially 11 of 18 games isn’t an easy task in a normal season, let alone 13 for a team like the Roosters, who would have visions of finishing in the top four.

Of those teams without a win, you’d have to think the Dragons, Warriors, Bulldogs and Titans are already as good as out of finals contention.

Sure, they could go on a run – anything is possible in this weird new world – but based on the way they played during the first two rounds and based on what was expected of them ahead of kick-off in 2020, the chances of them playing finals footy seem slim.

However, the Warriors have enough talent, led by Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, and won’t have to contend with crossing the ditch each week. They are also the good news story of the competition given the sacrifices they have made to get things up and running given the border being closed.

(Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

The Sharks and Roosters are the other two sides without a victory to their name, and while 11 out of 17 is tough, it isn’t impossible.

Back-to-the-wall footy suits Cronulla, so it shouldn’t surprise to see them sneak into the eight, while the Roosters are just a high-quality footy side. They are back-to-back premiers, and while they have lost star players in 2020, it’d be a shock to see them miss the eight altogether.

Their first two rounds, featuring losses to the Penrith Panthers and Manly Sea Eagles, were pretty average, but if they can get their attack together, they are a chance of finishing at the top end of town.

It will, however, require Luke Keary and James Tedesco to stay fit for the entirety of the season, and with a shorter playing calendar, injuries will have a larger impact on two fronts, meaning luck has a role to play this year.

Those two fronts are, firstly, every game means more and, secondly, a normal four-week return to play would actually equate to five games of this season. So an eight-week injury would be like missing half the season. It’s brutal on that front, that an injured star could impact their team so greatly.

The Roosters do, however, have one advantage: Trent Robinson.

(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)

In fact good coaching and discipline could be one of the telling factors in 2020 given all the distractions and extra protocols and precautions players will need to be following off the field.

For that reason you’d have to expect Manly and South Sydney are also going to be well-placed under the coaching of Des Hasler and Wayne Bennett respectively, more for their experience and man-management skills. The other teams on one win, being the Cowboys and Tigers under Paul Green and Michael Maguire respectively, leave plenty to be desired.

The Cowboys also have the issue of having the longest trips to make on game day. Flying three hours from Townsville to Sydney or longer to Canberra and Melbourne will be tough when there are no hotel stays and all flights are made just hours before the game.

Rather than going for a moring team walk in whatever city’s hosting them they will instead be bundled onto a plane and forced to sit down for three hours – not the best way to prepare for footy. So despite their talent levels, it’s hard to see them having a rosy run through the second half of the season, although they will be incredibly tough to beat at home for the same reasons.

And that brings us to the teams who resume the season with a four competition point headstart. Never has that been such an enormous advantage.

Add that to the fact formerly injured players like Reed Mahoney for the Eels and John Bateman for the Raiders are likely to return on the weekend of 28 May and those sides are going to be in a strong position.

(Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Of course Melbourne with a four-point head start are going to be hard to track down, and only a major injury to players like Cameron Smith or Cameron Munster could seemingly erode their chances.

The sides with question marks still hovering over them include the Knights, Broncos and Panthers. Those teams all won both of their first two games, but the quality of wins or opposition leaves plenty to be desired.

Take Brisbane, for example. Tight wins over the Cowboys and Rabbitohs. Their forward pack has been mammoth, but their halves haven’t been tested against the best yet, and you might as well add their defence to that conversation.

Saying that, the signs have been promising for the Brisbane-based club.

The Knights, on the other hand, have played the Warriors at home and the Tigers, which hardly says anything, although their attack was outstanding. Kalyn Ponga and Mitchell Pearce seem to have something of a combination going, and it could move them forward in leaps and bounds when the game returns if their defence and forwards can be up to the test.

And of course, though they did beat the Roosters in the opening round, Penrith struggled to knock off the Dragons in front of no-one at Kogarah.

Nathan Cleary is the key man at the foot of the mountains, but Ivan Cleary’s coaching and their battle to win in the middle third on a regular basis are key issues for the club.

So with the jury still out on those three teams, it’s hard to say exactly how things are going to end up, but it’s hard to argue anything other than Parramatta, Canberra and Melbourne as the main favourites to fill out three of the top four spots given their headstart as we begin the final 18 rounds.

As foolish as it is given the uncertainty surrounding the season and having no idea which team is going to actually make the best of the conditions or any knowledge of the revamped draw and what it looks like, I’m going to put my neck on the line and predict what the final ladder looks like.

1. Parramatta Eels (currently first, 2-0)
2. Melbourne Storm (currently fourth, 2-0)
3. Canberra Raiders (currently third, 2-0)
4. Manly Sea Eagles (currently tenth, 1-1)
5. Sydney Roosters (currently 12th, 0-2)
6. Brisbane Broncos (currently fifth, 2-0)
7. South Sydney Rabbitohs (currently eighth, 1-1)
8. Penrith Panthers (currently sixth, 2-0)
9. Cronulla Sharks (currently 11th, 0-2)
10. Newcastle Knights (currently second, 2-0)
11. Wests Tigers (currently ninth, 1-1)
12. North Queensland Cowboys (currently seventh, 1-1)
13. New Zealand Warriors (currently 15th, 0-2)
14. St George Illawarra Dragons (currently 13th, 0-2)
15. Canterbury Bulldogs (currently 14th, 0-2)
16. Gold Coast Titans (currently 16th, 0-2)

So there it is. We’re talking footy again. In just three weeks the 16 teams are due to go running around on the field once more as the weirdest season in history gets back underway.

The only question once we do get back is: who will rise to the task and who will flop under the weight of expectation?