While not necessarily my preference, this is my prediction of what I think the rugby landscape will look like from 2022 onwards.
My purpose is to record it here so that I can revisit it in the future to see how close or how embarrassingly far I was from reality. A bit of speculation of course, but it’s all in good fun!
A new global Test calendar
My prediction is that we will have a new global season as early as 2022. Here’s why it will happen: the stakeholders will take advantage of the current sense of change in the air, and make plans to move the July in-bound Tests to October so as to be directly followed by the November European tours.
The new October-November Test window will form part of a new Nations Championship to be played biannually in the years between the World Cup and a Lions Tour (see below), adding significant value to both the in-bound internationals and European tours.
The European clubs will be on board with this change because it will allow for two clear windows for both Test rugby and club rugby without the current three-Test windows and the interruption of Test rugby to club rugby, and vice versa.
Along with this, SANZAAR will move the Rugby Championship to be played in March-April, and the Six Nations will accommodate this by shifting to run during the same window in parallel.
(Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Here’s why it will happen: with the uncertainty surrounding the South African and Argentinian teams in Super Rugby, along with the fear of losing the Rugby Championship’s financially viability due to significantly weakened teams, SANZAAR will move the Rugby Championship to enable South Africa and Argentina (and possibly Australia) to have access to their overseas-based players while European club rugby is in recess, and provide full-strength teams as a result. It will also enable the addition of a full-strength Fijian team to the Rugby Championship as well as Japan, increasing the number of teams to six.
Further to this, moving the Rugby Championship will mean it can avoid any potential clashes with the World Cup or a Lions Tour in future years. Thus, the financial benefits of moving the Rugby Championship will be too much to forgo.
The Six Nations and Rugby Championship will each be a single round robin run over six weeks from March to mid-April, with a one-week midway break.
The new Nations Championship will be based on points gained from the two Test windows in March-April and October-November. The Rugby Championship and the Six Nations, along with the in-bounds and European tours, will allow each of the 12 teams involved to play every other team once during a single year for an overall winner based on points.
So, for example, in a Nations Championship year, New Zealand would play the other five Rugby Championship teams in March-April, three of the Six Nations teams at home in October, and then play the other three Six Nations teams away in November. Or, for example, England would play the other Six Nations teams in March-April, three of the Rugby Championship teams away in October, and the other three Rugby Championship teams at home in November.
(Photo by Lynne Cameron/Getty Images)
The extra revenue gained from the Nations Championship will allow teams to play one less Test in November that year than they do currently.
Importantly, only playing the Nations Championship biannually means that every other year there can still be Tests against emerging nations, October in-bound tours, and Grand Slam attempts in November.
At the same time, however, playing the Nations Championship biannually will mean that there is a significant revenue-earning tournament each year on a four year cycle. Year 1, Nations Championship. Year 2, World Cup. Year 3, Nations Championship. Year 4, Lions Tour. Repeat.
Anzac Day Bledisloe Cup
Australia and New Zealand will also play an extra Bledisloe Cup fixture outside the Rugby Championship each year on April 25. This will soon be the preeminent Anzac sporting fixture each year.
The Mitre 10 Cup and the NRC
New Zealand and Australia will underpin the Rugby Championship with their national domestic competitions as they do currently. The NRC will run from late February to late April. The final of the NRC will be played on a stand-alone weekend between the end of the Rugby Championship and the Anzac Day Bledisloe Cup game. The Mitre 10 Cup will have an extra week than it does currently, and run from late February to early May.
The future of Super Rugby
With the Rugby Championship in March-April, and the new Test window in October-November, it will leave a window from May to September for whatever replaces Super Rugby.
And this is my prediction: with the ongoing risk of Super Rugby being shut down again in 2021, along with the increasing cost of international travel, Super Rugby will be domestic-based again next year.
New Zealand and South Africa will renegotiate their broadcast deals. They will affirm that the only realistic way for New Zealand and South African teams to continue playing each other in the future would be in some form of finals system or Champions League following a domestic Super Rugby competition.
Unfortunately, I don’t think the South African teams will stick around for this. While the South African Rugby Union will remain part of SANZAAR for the Rugby Championship, I predict South Africa’s Super Rugby teams will join the Pro14 due to time-zone advantages and financial incentives, and they will be welcomed with open arms by the Pro14 organisers.
I have no idea what will become of the Jaguares, although there may be an opportunity for their players in Japan’s new professional domestic competition (see below).
So what will New Zealand and Australia do from May to September? I predict New Zealand fans will absolutely love Super Rugby Aotearoa this year and find it hard to give it up. They may offer Australia the opportunity to enter two or three teams in a Trans-Tasman competition, but they won’t risk diluting their competition with any more teams than that from Australia.
(AAP Image/Chris Symes)
Rugby Australia however, won’t accept this offer because it simply won’t engage Australian rugby fans, with too few games in prime-time viewing slots each weekend. On top of this, Rugby Australia won’t risk the fall-out again from favouring one Super Rugby team over another, especially having just enjoyed Super Rugby AU.
Australia might attempt to offer all five of their teams with the promise of concentrating their talent into three of those teams and opening up the other two to a significant amount of overseas players from places such as Argentina and the Pacific Islands. However, since there is no way to be sure these players will make themselves available, New Zealand won’t take that risk. Instead, New Zealand and Australia will agree to play their own domestic Super Rugby competitions with a Champions League following on from this.
There will be no strict requirement on how many teams each domestic competition can have. Each country will simply be expected to look after their own backyard and provide a format that works best for them.
In doing so, both New Zealand and Australia will look to increase the amount of teams in their respective domestic Super Rugby competitions, since having at least six teams would allow for three games across each weekend in prime-time viewing slots.
Better still, having seven teams would provide the extra content needed and also allow for two automatic byes for each team, keeping players fresh and rested throughout the year. Having seven teams in domestic Super Rugby would also guarantee each team gets six home games and six away games each year.
Any more than seven teams, however, would be a step too far at this stage. Therefore, I predict that both New Zealand and Australia will attempt to add two new teams to their respective domestic competitions.
They will seek to do this by adding a combination of Asian-based and Pacific Island teams, and possibly even another New Zealand team. However, I don’t expect to see any new Australian teams at this stage.
(Tracey Nearmy/Getty Images)
The format for Super Rugby Aotearoa will be a home-and-away season played over 14 weeks including two automatic byes for each team. This will be an ideal fit with the extra week provided for the Mitre 10 Cup. Super Rugby AU will follow the same format but include an extra two weeks of finals. This will also be an ideal fit with the fewer weeks needed for the NRC.
The top two teams from each competition will qualify for a Champions League to follow.
But that’s not all! Japan will move their new professional competition to be in line with New Zealand and Australia. Their teams will be open to a certain number of overseas players to increase depth. This may be where several of the Argentinian players end up. And the top two Japanese teams will also qualify for the Champions League.
While each domestic competition will be free to have a format and number of teams that work best for them, they will be required to have their top two teams ready to enter a five-week Champions League, with the final to be played two weeks before the October in-bound internationals. This will usually be the last Saturday in September each year.
The format for the Champions League will be as follows: each of the six teams will play all the other teams except the team from their own domestic competition for four games each. In doing so, each team will have two home games and two away games.
The two home games will be against one each from the other two domestic competitions. And the two away games will likewise be against one each from the other two domestic competitions. At the end of the four games each, the top two teams on points will play a final at the home of the top team on points.
This is how it would work.
Week 1
Australia 1 versus New Zealand 1
Australia 2 versus Japan 1
New Zealand 2 versus Japan 2
Week 2
Australia 1 versus Japan 2
New Zealand 1 versus Australia 2
Japan 1 versus New Zealand 2
Week 3
New Zealand 2 versus Australia 1
Japan 2 versus Australia 2
New Zealand 1 versus Japan 2
Week 4
Japan 1 versus Australia 1
Australia 2 versus New Zealand 2
Japan 2 versus New Zealand 1
Week 5
Final between the top two teams.
Club rugby
Club rugby in New Zealand and Australia will underpin Super Rugby as it does currently. It will follow on from the end of the Mitre 10 Cup and NRC respectively, and run in the period from May to September.
The Sydney clubs will be onboard with this because of the possibility of having a national club championship after Super Rugby AU in October, involving the top eight (or even 16!) teams from the main club competitions across Australia playing in a knock-out format to determine the winner.
A more radical national club championship idea will be to have an FA Cup style knock-out competition open to any eligible club across Australia to be run during October-November when all the non-Test Super Rugby AU players will be available to return to their clubs.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
The 2022 rugby calendar for New Zealand and Australia
Thus, this is what I predict the 2022 rugby calendar will look like for New Zealand and Australia.
Firstly, the view from New Zealand:
February 19 to May 7: Mitre 10 Cup
March 6 to April 9: The Rugby Championship (Nations Championship)
April 25: Bledisloe Cup
May 20 to August 20: Super Rugby Aotearoa
August 27 to September 24: Super Rugby Champions League
October 8 to 22: In-bound internationals (Nations Championship)
November 9 to 23: European Tour (Nations Championship)
Notice that there is a week off between the final of the Mitre 10 Cup and the start of Super Rugby Aotearoa. This is to give players a quick rest and a chance to celebrate their win. However, notice that the end of Super Rugby Aotearoa runs seamlessly into the Champions League without a break in between. This reflects the fact that Super Rugby Aotearoa already includes two automatic byes for each team and no finals.
Next, the view from Australia:
February 19 to April 16: NRC
March 6 to April 9: The Rugby Championship (Nations Championship)
April 25: Bledisloe Cup
April 29 to August 13: Super Rugby AU
August 27 to September 24: Super Rugby Champions League
October to November: National Club Championship
October 8 to 22: In-bound internationals (Nations Championship)
November 9 to 23: European Tour (Nations Championship)
Like in New Zealand, notice there is a week off between the NRC and the start of Super Rugby AU to give players a quick rest and a chance to celebrate their win. But also notice there is a week off between the end of Super Rugby AU and the Champions League. This is to account for the extra two weeks of finals for Super Rugby AU and provide a short recovery before the Champions League.
And there you have it. Let me know what your prediction is (as opposed to your preference) in the comments.
WA Pom
Roar Rookie
Great overall framework here, with a few tweaks (and a seismic shift in speed and forethought from authorities) would be great to see. Global calendar for the RWC, 6N and RC, plus aligned international test windows, as joe suggested are a must. I like the biannual idea, but would also like to see a second tier 6N and RC leagues to allow emerging nations a chance to be promoted to the top table, and ultimately grow the game elsewhere. A play off at the lowest 6N or RC team’s ground would give them a chance, whilst still favouring the top tier team, to allow the idea any chance of getting off the ground. Domestic windows for each individual country to tailor their own domestic leagues as they see fit should dovetail into the international windows. (Allowing breaks in summer months respectively where possible SH v NH) It is no use trying to dictate to individual unions, let them tailor what works best in each market place. A ‘champions league’ super rugby replacement then fits in for SH (+ Japan if they are interested) after the domestic leagues have finished, the format being changeable as and when other sectors develop. NH sorts it’s own backyard out, probably continuing the broad format at the moment, easier movement around Europe. (Post current restrictions). Candada, US, Latin America, and Asia develop their own seasons to fit into the established domestic windows, or develop relationships with existing leagues. Test rugby therefore dictates the year, in a few globally aligned windows. Domestic rugby fits around it at the whims of each union. Player welfare and less games, but more quality should be the mantra. NH teams are suffering financially and are also on the ‘cliff’ and will restructure their affairs too, changes are afoot over there. In Aus, I don’t have all the answers re the Sydney and QL leagues as I don’t have the knowledge. However if rugby is to survive and remain relevant domestically it has to provide pathways, and coverage from schools, though clubs to a national competition first. The Force must be involved in the top league (it is supposed to be Rugby Australia after all) , and chances for other teams, around the country to join must be there down the line. I’m sure Twiggy would come to the table, if ‘poor decisions’ of the past are addressed, and he has deep pockets to help get out of the mire we are in. If a super rugby champions league is in the schedule, we then get together to work out the pyramid which sits beneath it, to revive the domestic game, tv rights, and ultimately provide the Wallabies the chance to challenge internationally. Clovid is the chance for a complete rethink, let’s not waste the opportunity.
Kevin
Roar Rookie
Yes, shame as this plan is much better, and could be adapted for the NH quite easily. If GRR is still running, I can see it taking over the NRC.
BeastieBoy
Roar Rookie
My prediction. The professional game in Australia will be sold off to a private consortium of investors as there is no money left to meet a viable budget.
JSJ
Roar Rookie
If COVID19 is under control outside of Australia, in the next 6-9 months and international travel resumes then SANZAAR will likely resume their normal Super Rugby and will say to the Force “bye-bye, thanks for helping out in 2020”. So then Force and Twiggy go back to building their GRR with the South China Tigers and others. If Covid19 is still rampant in 2021 and 2022, then SC Tigers will almost certainly not be paying in either GRR or Super unfortunetly.
Kevin
Roar Rookie
Well, with this proposal GRR is not needed as Force are back in the big time. Unless Twiggy, thinks he might be able to steal the other teams to GRR from the Union, but I doubt it. By adding the SC Tigers, to the Aus SR it gets access to China, while having a 'rugby' knowledgeable crowd already in HK.
JSJ
Roar Rookie
Joe, Good work. Are you assuming GRR and Twiggy will just go away? The only possibility of that happening in my mind is if Covid19 hangs around for a few years and international travel in and out of Australia and NZ is still blocked in 2021 and 2022. But then all international rugby on your calander will also he impacted.
JSJ
Roar Rookie
Kevin, From your last paragraph, are you assuming GRR and Twiggy will just go away?
JSJ
Roar Rookie
The All Blacks have never beaten the Wallabies in Perth
Craigo
Guest
@No grain Agree 100% with all your points
Craigo
Guest
RA has had always had the greater audience world wide reach and it has never helped the game in Australia why would it work now? As "No grain" posted above. The belief that because the game is played in many countries it has a future, wrong , soccer is played in every country, so what. AFL is played in one country.
Jacko
Guest
There are plenty of ways to stage a successful International game on the same days as AFL and NRL domestic comps....It would certainly reach a far greater audience world wide than those sports would...Not to mention that games can be played in places that have very different timezones and can be moved around from an arvo match to a night match over an 6 hour span ( NZ at 3pm- Perth at 5pm ) 8pm NZ time would be 6pm Aus EC and 4pm in Perth and would sell to the NH as a suitable time zone so would work financially too...Its time to stop sooking off from other sports in Aus that barely or dont exist anywhere else
Jacko
Guest
What a load of uneducated BS....Why bother coming here if you know so little about Union and arnt interested in learning.....
Craigo
Guest
"Anzac Day Bledisloe Cup. This will soon be the preeminent Anzac sporting fixture each year." The NRL and AFL will block any clean air for the Bledisloe Cup. Starting with the fact that the Bledisloe Cup is now so one sided people in Australia will not watch it. Bledisloe Cup games need to stay away from an already crowded sports day.
No grain
Roar Rookie
Yet another article avoiding what's wrong with Rugby, your article presents more silver bullets to say the game. Silver bullets or blaming someone or other codes, or the media ect, will not save Rugby. This arrogance is what has destroyed the game. There is so many myths about the future of Rugby. 1. The belief that because the game is played in many countries it has a future, wrong , soccer is played in every country, so what. AFL is played in one country. 2. The northern hemisphere unions are strong, wrong, they are having similar problems with crowds and lose of support as us. 3. No matter what competition, RA comes up with, it's to late. The game has lost crowd support, 4. Rugby administrations, Rugby power brokers ect refuse to accept that the problem with Rugby is Rugby the game itself. 5. If the stubborn arrogance that bought the game to the cliff edge does not admit that the game must change drastically, arrogance will take it over the cliff. 5. Copying RL in desperation will be disaster, RA must be original. Your article means well, but again like most supportive articles, fails to recognize the fact that most people see Rugby as, dull, plodding and in many believe the game is negative.
Kevin
Roar Rookie
The Euro Cup is struggling as many clubs are out of contention early on and so prioritise domestic. The money for qualifying is more important than the event itself. There will be some changes in the North as player burn out is huge and also nearly every club is losing money due to wage inflation.
WallabyJ
Roar Rookie
Thanks for a great article. Lots of fantastic ideas. My main concern is playing the Rugby Championship in March - Australian teams will not have had a chance to play their normal seasons so everyone will be underdone in terms of playing at a national level and it will make it extremely difficult to pick an in-form team. Of course NZ are in the same boat, but they'll always find a way to play magnificently so Australia will probably never win another Rugby Championship if this timing is used.....
Busted Fullback
Roar Rookie
Thanks. This then means that there is always a possibility that the 2021-25 contracts that have been signed could be ended in SA and NZ if something better comes along for them... and RA should be looking at all possibilities. Hope I've got it right now.
Realist
Guest
I can’t help but think a local only comp with 7 teams will burn out pretty quickly. The quality of Aus super rugby teams is already considerably over stretched with 4 teams. People would rather watch club rugby than a weakened Waratahs or Reds side who are further diluting their player base to ‘prop-up’ artificial rugby sides. Let the heartland sides pick their own players and the Brumbies can turn the leftovers into a determined team of overachievers.
Clive Woodward
Guest
In Australia - DEATH.
Waz
Roar Rookie
Change is certainly in the air; but don’t expect the European nations to be as accommodating as you suggest here - the Southern Hemisphere needs the change way more than the North. England and France have highly successful domestic competitions, the lucrative European Cup, 6N’s, Test Matches, Barbarian matches plus of course the international tours .... crucially they have a supportive broadcaster where we don’t. The most likely outcome for me is that England/France become the NRL of Union with all the best players and all the money. Domestic Rugby in the rest of the world then plays second fiddle for the next decade but, after licking its wounds for awhile, re-emerges in the next decade a little healthier than the last ten years.