There has been a lot of bed-wetting around the supposed impending death of Australian rugby.
Most look to one or two recent causal factors, however the rot set in back in 2013 and we have been slow to correct course.
At the outset, it is important to note that Australian rugby has had a rough few years, yet the framework for success is there, and there were some very positive signs about the game pre-COVID-19.
Most notable are the health of the traditional clubs in Brisbane and Sydney, the under-20s players coming through the system, improved Super Rugby form for most provinces, stability in coaching staff at Super Rugby level, a new coaching set-up with promise for the Wallabies and Rugby World Cup bids and Lions tours to look forward to.
There have been several causal factors given for the demise of Australian rugby performance and support over the last seven years. However, most of the factors were in play when rugby was in rude health in the early 2000s.
The main issues being reported on in the media are as follows.
1. The Super Rugby format
Many have pointed the blame at the travel and time zone issues associated with Super Rugby with teams disappearing for overseas tours to South Africa and Argentina. But is this really the main problem with the competition?
This is not a new issue, yet the Brumbies, Waratahs and Reds have played in front of packed houses with solid TV numbers during successful years. While ideally teams wouldn’t disappear from prime-time television for a long period of time, this hasn’t negatively impacted the support for the competition in the past.
When ideas were put in place to remedy this problem (more local derbies in the conference format), the remedy was then blamed as the cause of the illness, and we are now back with every team playing each other once (presuming Super Rugby continues in 2021 as planned).
While the format was confusing, it is remarkably similar to the Heineken Cup format, where the top teams from each pool make it through, and then a ladder is formed for the highest performing second teams to decide the final spots.
The Heineken Cup is popular in Europe, there is no reason a similar format shouldn’t work in the southern hemisphere.
Waratahs players celebrate after defeating the Crusaders in the Super Rugby Final at ANZ Stadium. (AAP Image/Daniel Munoz)
2. Super Rugby expansion
This one has some legs, but as above, the Waratahs and Reds won their lone Super Rugby titles respectively in 2014 and 2011 when Australia had five teams. The Brumbies have made the final in the expansion period as well in 2013.
While expansion has diluted Australia’s talent across the board, there has been significant success during the expansion period. It’s also worth noting that the Wallabies were one kick away from winning a Lions series, made a World Cup final and competed at around the same win ratio during Robbie Deans’ reign (hovering around 60 per cent) as in prior years.
3. The laws
This is perhaps the most frustrating argument. With the usual knockers coming from rugby league, there has been a chorus of noise from the usual galahs to make the game faster and more expansive.
While I would agree with some of the sentiment around scrum repack and ball in play time, all these issues have been in place for a long period of time.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Three points for penalties, ruck interpretation and the offside line are often put down as reasons for poor support of the game by neutrals. As above, these laws have been in place during Australia’s successful years.
4. Free to air
Again, Super Rugby has never had a prominent place on free-to-air. While this is certainly a problem for growth of the game, it shouldn’t be the killer blow to the sport in general.
5. Poor Super Rugby and Wallabies form
And finally we have the reason for the lack of support. This is obvious, but why has there been a lack of success on the field since the 2015 World Cup final?
I see two main culprits, money and coaching.
1. Money
Australia has lost a lot of talent to European and Japanese clubs in the last ten years. The talent we tend to lose is not the top-flight players, for example Bernard Foley, Michael Hooper and David Pocock, who have stayed as they are regular Wallabies starters with top-up contracts, but the second-tier players.
Players like Nic Stirzaker and Jesse Mogg are perfect examples of players in their prime, who were not regular Wallabies starters and searched for riches overseas.
Jesse Mogg. (Iroz Gaizka/AFP via Getty Images)
As it’s usually non-Wallabies players who are leaving our shores, the importance of this can be missed. When the good players who are on the fringe of Wallabies selection start leaving, it creates huge holes in Super Rugby squads. The holes are often filled by players who aren’t up to the same standard or who are too raw in their development to properly fill the gap.
This issue also creates problems in continuity, and to borrow from Ben Darwin’s mantra, the cohesion of Super Rugby squads. There is a constant turnover each year of players moving on, even if the players coming in are on par or better, they still have to adjust to new players and new systems.
For the Wallabies, it means there are not players plying their trade in crucial positions who sit just underneath the top players ready to fill the breach for lack of form or injury. Competition for places becomes weaker, and the players at the top can rest on their laurels, knowing they are far more experienced and capable at this stage of their careers than the understudy.
This was most evident during the flyhalf crisis of 2016 to 2018. Australia only had one viable flyhalf choice available in Foley. Quade Cooper was not seriously considered as an option, the Brumbies had a non-eligible ten in Wharenui Hawera, Jono Lance was never considered a realistic option and Jack Debreczeni was never allowed to develop on the promise he had.
So much talent in our ten stocks – Christian Lealiifano, Matt Toomua, Berrick Barnes, Kurtley Beale – were overseas, and arguably would have had a shot to take the position off Foley on his form over those two years.
The high turnover of players means it is difficult to know the stars of the game. Even an avid watcher of the game finds it difficult to intimately know their team squads from season to season, and makes it difficult for kids to pick their heroes.
2. Coaching
I see this as the biggest issue in Australian rugby since 2013, and there have been moves to fix it in the last few years, which has resulted in better performances at Super Rugby level.
If you cast your mind back to 2013, Australia had very good coaching set-ups at all most all Super Rugby franchises. The Reds had Ewen McKenzie with recent success in 2011 and a finals appearance in 2012, Michael Cheika had just taken over at the Waratahs, fresh after unprecedented success with Leinster in Ireland, and South African World Cup-winning coach Jake White was looking after the Brumbies.
The Force and Rebels had inexperienced coaches in Michael Foley and Damien Hill, but both were seen as quality coaches. To top it off, the most successful Super Rugby coach of all time was leading the Wallabies in Robbie Deans. Australian rugby was in good health in the coaching department with a well recognised head coach for the national team, three viable options to take over if things didn’t go well, and two up-and-coming coaches.
(Photo: Supplied)
Things didn’t go well. Deans lost the Lions series, largely down to Kurtley Beale missing a match-winning kick after being selected fresh from being released from a rehabilitation clinic. It was a disastrous selection and combined with the previous failure at the World Cup, Robbie Deans was gone.
This is where the rot set in. McKenzie was picked as the Wallabies coach and had some success but lasted just a year before leaving his post after an ugly incident with some senior players. White left after not being selected for the Wallabies role, and Cheika replaced McKenzie for the Wallabies. All three top Super Rugby coaches at the traditional powerhouses of Australian rugby were lost with all their IP.
Foley stayed on until 2016 before being replaced by the rookie coach Dave Wessels. The Reds went through a horror run with Richard Graham, before sacking him in early 2016 before the season started, replaced by both his assistants in a dual coaching role. There could be a book written about the Reds’ coaching debacle between 2013 and 2017, I will leave that for another time.
The Waratahs went with continuity, and had rookie head coach and former Cheika assistant Daryl Gibson appointed. The Brumbies had young head coach Stephen Larkham at the helm since 2014. The Rebels had Tony McGahan, possibly the most experienced head coach in Australia’s Super Rugby sides.
At the beginning of 2016, the Australian Super Rugby sides had three rookie coaches, with Larkham a young up-and-coming coach and Tony McGahan the only experienced campaigner having led Munster in Ireland and holding a previous role as a Wallabies assistant.
It proved disastrous. It was a terrible Super Rugby season for the Australian sides. As for 2017, it was the worst year on record for Australian Super Rugby sides. Nick Stiles got the nod ahead of Matt O’Connor at the Reds, and was sacked within the year to promote Brad Thorn. The Reds stagnated with high turnover of players and staff from 2013 to 2018.
The Waratahs were average under Gibson before his shock resignation in 2019. The Brumbies lost Larkham to the Wallabies set-up before he was moved on as a part of the review of Australia’s poor performance in 2018. The Western Force were axed and Wessels moved onto Melbourne.
It was a lot of turnover at all the Super Rugby sides, and it was chaotic for player movement. Cheika was critical of the fitness of the Wallabies players coming into camp, and it showed on the field. The crowds steadily dropped from the heights of the 2011 to 2014 period for the Reds and Waratahs. The Brumbies have had significant drops in crowd numbers. Sadly, the Force had strong home-ground support right up to their Super Rugby exit.
Out of all this, there appears to be some sense of continuity returning to Australia’s Super Rugby franchises. The Reds have kept Thorn for a third season with marginal improvement, but a young, exciting and maturing squad being largely kept together.
(AAP Image/Darren England)
The Waratahs are rebuilding, have some talented young players and hopefully Rob Penney sticks around to rebuild. The Brumbies are winning again and have kept continuity in their playing ranks, with the usual post World Cup turnover. With a good coaching set-up, there is no reason not to be optimistic if you are a Brumbies supporter. Dan McKellar looks to be Australia’s next top Super Rugby coach.
The Rebels have stuck with Dave Wessels, now in his fourth year as a head coach of the Force or the Rebels. He is a great personality for the game, even if the results in 2019 were poor considering the star-studded squad and good start to the year. Bringing in the highly rated Dave Rennie, it appears that Australian rugby has something to look forward to in 2021.
This is why it is so hard to fathom some of the criticism coming now. Australia is on the improve, there is a bright horizon, yet all the criticisms and calls for heads to roll should have happened between 2016 and 2018. The captains letter came three years too late, and with little context or content on what the fundamental problems are or how to fix them.
Issues around free-to-air broadcast deals, the laws and scheduling difficulties do create problems for supporters, however these are problems that create a lack of resilience in the game that contributes to poor crowd numbers. They are not the primary cause of the rot. The real problem of poor on-field performance was due to lack of quality and experienced coaches at the Super Rugby level, and a high turnover of players lost to Europe and Japan.
It is not to say that the other issues shouldn’t be fixed to create a stronger game, but to point to them as the main reasons for our decline isn’t looking at the game holistically and fixing them might not be the panacea that some hope. The answers for Australian rugby are somewhat simple. The Reds have shown the way with signing a host of the young brigade to long-term contracts and keeping their coaching staff in place over three years despite modest results.
Continuity is the answer. Long may the continuity continue.
Please note that I have ignored the COVID-19-related issues, as there is too much uncertainty in the broadcast deal and player contracts to provide any clarity at this point.
Derp
Guest
The Captains letter was idiotic and, putting my conspiracy theorist hat on, was largely aimed at the vested interests keeping their vests on. Reading between the lines, you could also suggest that player power was at the core of both our monetary and coaching issues. With Covid-19 hitting the world and a variety of leagues tightening both foreign player and salary caps, player power should diminish somewhat.
BeastieBoy
Roar Rookie
Look back to 2003 and a bit earlier.. with the excessive RUPA player deal and the obsessive top down approach amongst many other things.
Conor
Roar Rookie
I appreciate the sentiment JB, but I think you have largely missed the point of the article. The major point being that there are underlying problems within the game, but that the primary issue that has driven dwindling crowd numbers and TV viewers (which in turn hurts revenue) is poor on-field performance. There is just way too much focus on the governance and tournament structure in rugby at the moment. Nowhere in the article does it state that rugby shouldn't change, and I started in 2013 (not the 90's) for a few reasons, things were pretty rosy at that point financially, all the current issues were well entrenched and on-field performance was solid at Super and National level. In fact, looking at the Reds from 2010-2013 they had higher average attendances over that period than the Broncos or Lions (above 30k), they won the comp and things looked very bright, but high turnover of coaches and players led to disengagement, and now they are averaging 11k per game. If you want to break the cycle of failure you need revenue, if you want to increase revenue you need on field performance, if you want to change the cycle of on field performance you need stability in the coaching and playing ranks. On a side note, as a student in biological evolutionary studies I appreciate the first sentence. However, it's generic and largely incorrect. Intelligence does lend itself to increased survivability of species and, depending on what type of strength you are looking at, strength does as well.
Muglair
Roar Rookie
I am always critical of 'short memories'; those who do not understand history are doomed to repeat it, while those that do have to watch it repeat. It was not in my backyard, so I barely recall the details. Undoubtedly there was a lot of even murkier water under the surface, and going back a few years. One of the problems with rugby at the moment is the value placed on experiences outside rugby which means these mistakes will continue to be made. These fixed term contracts are not affordable in the future, they are a one way option. The very best in any field can probably make them conditional, mainly because there is a reasonable expectation of the level of performance. Now every executive (or player) gets one based on assumed level of performance for next year that will exceed this year, and then expected to continue for a few more years into the future.
Tony Hodges
Roar Rookie
The Brumbies troubles were more administration than training set up. They got into a bit of a sticky spot, and then had a blow-up with the person they picked to clean it up. https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-08/canberra-brumbies-record-800k-loss-for-2016/8253240 They held it together on the park for a while, but I’d say it was a contributing factor (allowing for some lag) to their relatively soft 2018 result.
Jb
Guest
It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change. If rugby does not change it will be left behind. You cannot say this wasn't an issue in the 90s so it shouldn't matter now. If rugby does not fundamentally change on every level, this cycle of failure will never be broken.
Busted Fullback
Roar Rookie
I don't have permission to use names.
Muglair
Roar Rookie
Undoubtedly the reviews were not considered that helpful. The corporate veil erected around RA does nothing but harm. I think the KKR story is a furphy, presumably related to the consulting firm Georgina Robinson was “promoting” a couple of weeks ago. Seemingly trying to manoeuvre their way into a fee. You would think this World Championship Wrestling tag team. One group of genius business people bring the game to its knees and then the next group ‘saves’ the game by selling it off. This is so ridiculous that someone would want to invest in a basket case, but at the same time RA and the SR franchises will be desperate for cash. Therefore there is an opportunity to invest on the cheap. In return KKR will probably have control over broadcast rights and will take a percentage, with the size of the percentage in direct proportion to the level of financial desperation. If it is a success then RA will have signed away a valuable asset plus an element of control for fraction of its value. If it is a failure then KKR will just want the best possible financial exit and they certainly will not care what happens to rugby on their way out. Note that the conclusion of the consultants was that SR was dragged down in value by SA/NZ involvement and that the real value was in local derbies. It looks like the KKR proposal favours that approach. Glad its not my money they are investing.
Conor
Roar Rookie
It would be great to see a lot of these coaches come back into senior roles. Have any particular coaches in mind that could make the step up into a SR senior or assistants role?
Conor
Roar Rookie
Succinct! Yes, the endless reviews seem to produce very little actual change. At the moment there seems to be a heavy focus on the structure of Super Rugby, RA and international competitions, when I think the way to get the most immediate turnaround in the game is by keeping the same coach and 23 players in the squad for a few seasons. The argument between strengthening the heartland and supporting the expansion areas is fascinating, and the status-quo might get tested if external investors are more heavily involved in the game
Conor
Roar Rookie
I was a big fan of Morahan and it was sad to see him leave.
Muglair
Roar Rookie
Most places eventually lose their way, in any field. Accepting responsibility and acknowledging it as soon as possible can allow getting things back on track. Culture becomes important then. Some organisations will immediately try and implement what they used to have, usually after the environment has changed and the people are not the same quality. The same reasons why they started failing, and from the outside it might look like 'banging their heads against the wall' or 'flogging a dead horse'. With the Brumbies McQueen worked hard at the start to cultivate an egalitarian, visionary and execution oriented culture. If you were close enough to see what was happening and how it was brought back on track I would be interested in your observations. May well be indicative of the approach required now across the country.
Muglair
Roar Rookie
Many of the problems were there, it is true. However we were not paying huge salaries to "business people", who not only have not solved them, but actually allowed long solved problems to come back. Parochialism was a problem between NSW and Queensland, but when they were threatened, 8 votes out of 14 could be employed to protect their interests. I guess mostly what was in the interests of NSW and Queensland probably was good for Australian rugby. Sadly it does mean many good ideas, initiatives and opportunities were lost, not to mention sub-optimal ideas which allowed various directors to scratch each others backs. The problem is that now control is too dispersed to enable serious change to happen and NSW and Queensland's interests can be blocked. While what is good for NSW/Qld might not be always good for Australian Rugby, what is bad for NSW/Qld probably will be bad for Australia. This is a delicate and sophisticated balance and a mix of parochialism, vendettas, lack of trust and incompetent and unaccountable management is holding us all back from a better solution. I have just gone back over some material from 2014, not much has changed in the last six years.
Tony Hodges
Roar Rookie
The Brumbies admin went through a pretty rough couple of years through the mid-20teens. The coaching set up was still pretty strong, through.
Tony Hodges
Roar Rookie
Good article. The other thing about continuity and success is that they are self-reinforcing. It’s hard to get one without the other, which is why we’ve had an extended run of neither, really.
Tooly
Roar Rookie
Very good and very true. You haven’t missed much, or any of those responsible. Luke Morahan epitomises what’s wrong with Rugby in Australia. He is a far more complete player than DHP, Hodge or Koreibeti. No one playing for a franchise should be told or feel that they are not wanted by the Wallabies.
jcmasher
Roar Rookie
I agree the future does look brighter. I just wish some of the self interest at each state would go away and we'd work together for the good of rugby. I just can't see that happening though until there are major changes. I think the whole structure of RA needs to change but for that to happen both NSW and QLD would need to relinquish some of their current power and I think both are full of self entitled and selfish people who won't do that
Busted Fullback
Roar Rookie
Thanks Conor. Your article brings two thing to mind for me. The first is simple: Everyone loves a winner. Some of us stick by the game through thick and thin but 98k fans at the MCG or record numbers in Sydney were there to see winners. There are a lot of fair-weather fans in Australia. The second point concerns governance and its effect on coaching. Fifteen to twenty years ago the powers-that-be at the ARU were telling young coaches to go overseas, get experience and when you come back, we'll look after you. Many went overseas. The people at the ARU changed. Some players came back from overseas, with a little coaching experience and were looked after by new people at the ARU or state Unions and turned out to be fair less successful than our teams deserved. Some of the young coaches came back after illustrious careers and were recognised. But there were a lot of young coaches who didn't get the recognition from the new administrators that I believe they deserved. Many were assistant coaches at successful NH clubs, some even Head coaches. Where is that experience now?
Conor
Roar Rookie
Thanks JC, winning and hope are crucial for the public, otherwise as we have seen, people switch off. There are frameworks in place for coaching/referring at each state. However no centralised model as of yet. I think the problems largely sit with putting in, and then sacking inexperienced coaches and having the correct pathway for them to make it. The NRC hoped to bridge that gap, but it looks like it won't continue. The guys who have been successful at Super level in Australia recently tend to have had experience overseas (White, McKenzie and Cheika). This might be a good proposition for Larkham to return to a head role and make the most of it. I am optimistic for the first time in a while now. McKellar looks the goods, the Reds have good back room staff, and I think Wessels is a good prospect. At Wallaby level I really like the assistants and head coach. Plus the under 20's coming through look fantastic. It's not all doom and gloom!
jcmasher
Roar Rookie
Nice article Connor and pretty much covers the issues. I think there is more importance to the "winning" than what you've covered here as even when there were games lost earlier, there was always an expectation that things could and would get better. I certainly have not felt that since 2016. I just couldn't see how things were going to improve at either test or super rugby with the continual losses and the lack of accountability with players and coaches. I agree 100% with the lack of development of coaches but I think it is systematic of a larger issue where there is no central framework for the development of players, coaches, administrators or referees. This is a very poor situation.