Friday night forecast: Geelong vs Richmond

By Marnie Cohen / Expert

Now this is a Friday night game worth getting excited about.

Well, a matchup in general that would make most footy fans eager to tune in.

We are now 17 rounds into an 18-round season and I think 2020 has taught us that maybe each team playing each other once per season is enough.

It’s probably not enough for those of us who eat, sleep, breathe and dream footy, but it’s certainly enough time to figure out the contenders from the rest.

Strange things can happen in final series and teams can truly come out of the woodwork and surprise us (ala Western Bulldogs 2016, however they aren’t the rule, they are the exception).

But by the end of Round 16, it seemed clear that there are probably only five teams who are seriously in with a chance to win the 2020 Premiership.

Two of those are playing tonight.

Of course, 2020 has been anything but normal. However, in a traditional home-and-away season, we would still have six rounds to go…surely that’s way too long to figure out which team or two will make up the numbers in the top eight?

I suppose we will leave that discussion for the end of October.

But for now, let’s get right into this game.

I’ll cut straight to the chase here.

I feel as though our judgement on Richmond and Geelong’s current form has been clouded (for lack of a better phrase) by what we expect them to produce come finals time.

(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)

Just a disclaimer: both Richmond and Geelong deserve all the praise that has come their way throughout the season. Clearly two of the standout sides so far this season.

But I just think that due to Geelong’s previous finals record (more specifically, their inability to win preliminary finals) has resulted in us perceiving them as less of a threat than Richmond, who have won two premierships in three seasons.

When really, I think (and I have been banging on about this for weeks now) that Geelong is the biggest threat going into the finals and are definitely the team to watch, for mine.

Despite finishing on top of the ladder last season after a strong home-and-away campaign, they have taken their game to yet another level this season.

Heading into the second last round of the season, Geelong is ranked second in the competition for disposals, fourth for tackles, first for points scored and clearances.

They are seriously a force to be reckoned with and there should be no reason why they aren’t the talk of the town…except that inability to make a leap from preliminary finals to the grand final. It’s holding our perception of them back.

I don’t mean to say this to discredit or disrespect Richmond at all.

There is an obvious reason that they are constantly at the front of the media and football’s minds, because they’re seriously good.

Despite all the drama that has surrounded them in 2020, they just keep showing up and performing week after week.

And they’ve got the best depth of anyone in the competition. They keep creating players out of nothing, which is a sign of a strong culture they’ve been able to develop over the past few seasons.

Take Jake Aarts as an example. He made his debut back in Round 5 against the Dees and hasn’t missed a game since.

He doesn’t pull huge numbers each week, but he almost always has an impact.

He’s exciting, lively and adds something to the side.

That rich culture and genuine competition for spots is actually something that makes both these sides so good.

These opportunities force players to level up and keep their spots, rather than players being gifted games.

While the on-field culture at Richmond may be strong, off-field it looks a little shaky.

I know Richmond will be fresher, coming off a nine-day break, but this is the first time they will take the field since Sydney Stack and Callum Coleman-Jones were sent home from the Gold Coast and suspended for ten matches for breaching the AFL’S strict COVID-19 hub protocols.

The response from key off-field figures, in particular from President Peggy O’Neil, has been fantastic.

It’s now time for the Richmond leaders to stand up on-field and focus on the task at hand.

(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

Despite the shorter break, I think that Cats really have what it takes and I think they’ll win tonight.

I just love the way they’re going about their football.

Tonight, the Cats will celebrate Zach Tuohy’s 200th game, after his first attempt at the milestone came to an abrupt end last week, as he was a late withdrawal against Essendon.

He becomes just the second Irishman to reach the milestone behind the late Jim Stynes.

And the celebrations don’t stop there.

Richmond favourite Jack Riewoldt will receive his AFL life membership tonight.

It promises to be one of the games of the season and I think Geelong will rise to the occasion and claim the four points.

That’s my Friday forecast. What’s yours?

The Crowd Says:

2020-09-21T07:54:47+00:00

Mark

Roar Rookie


You lose all credibility D when you include absolute falsehoods in arguments. The 2017 Quali did not have 90k+ Richmond Supporters in attendance. This would have been an impossibility. There was in all likelyhood more Richmond Supporters there than Geelong but after all we do have 40-50% more members than the Cats. Also, you ignore the many Melbourne (and Geelong) based fans that would miss out on seeing their Team in a Final if it was not played at the MCG. There are many Geelong Fans/Supporters ( and I know them) who prefer the Cats to Play at the MCG. Final point is that the crowd figure at which the Cats make the same money at the G as they would at KP is around 50k. Any crowd bigger than 50k at the G and the Cats are making more money. A crowd of 90k at the G for a Cats homegame means alot more money to the Club. Imagine if the Cats played more games at the G. They would make more money, grow their membership due to more supporters being able to see more games, and, in time, may become almost as good as the Tigers at playing the MCG! :happy:

2020-09-18T05:25:57+00:00

Dangersphere 10

Roar Rookie


Good, I'm glad you've at least experienced it, unlike most who criticise and dismiss it without having ever even set foot on the premises. I get what you're saying, but the alternative is 90+ thousand Richmond fans at the G roaring for the tigers and booing us relentlessly at our "home final" like in 2017. That's the alternative and I don't think its particularly fair on the cats as an institution (we lose money playing at the G compared to at home) or as a playing group (you try playing your best with 90+ thousand people against you, -at your so called "home" ground). You say "Home finals are not earned," yet I see West Coast "earn" home finals every year, like in 18 when they didn't leave Perth until the GF. Or Brisbane last year hosting the tigers. Pretty sure spots 1-2 and 5-6 DO earn you a home final, as long as your name isn't Geelong, WB, Saint Kilda, or North Melbourne... Once the upgrades are done and another 20 thousand seats are added, I hope to never hear any of these arguments against the cats hosting finals again, given that the seating will by then be similar to the Gabba, around the 50 thousand mark.

2020-09-17T13:47:06+00:00

RT

Roar Rookie


Home finals are not earned, but that argument aside, yes I have been there and it was great. Very hard to get a ticket at a home and away mind you. Imagine a final with only 17000 tickets for each of Geelong and Richmond members assuming none set asides AFL members or others. That would be just garbage. I want the MCG so I can go to the game. I’d be happy if it was the old VFL Park. My argument is no more tired than yours, in fact it is less because the AFL agree and always have.

2020-09-17T12:10:46+00:00

Dangersphere 10

Roar Rookie


Wasn't meaning to be rude, it's how I always react to those same old tired arguments about "fans missing out"... it's always the same, so no point in carrying on. You guys can't seem to comprehend that its not about the other teams supporters being comfortable, its about playing at your actual home ground when you've earned the right to do so, you know, like in every other sport on the planet? But like I already elaborate in my initial response to Realist, its only human nature to want something which benefits you/your-team to carry on, so of course you won't be able to entertain such a notion. Have you actually ever been down to the cattery? It's an amazing stadium, well worthy of hosting finals when earned, at the very least against interstate clubs, like against the eagles last season, which was instead played at a half empty MCG on a Friday night when cats fans couldn't even make it there in time for the match...

2020-09-17T10:53:32+00:00

RT

Roar Rookie


No need to be rude, I am so used to whinging Geelong supporters I didn’t realise you actually understood. Well scrub the start and just read my last 2 sentences. I stand by those.

2020-09-17T09:53:29+00:00

Dangersphere 10

Roar Rookie


FACEPALM :thumbup:

2020-09-14T13:36:50+00:00

RT

Roar Rookie


My issues are to do with finals not being played in a location which is in keeping with the so called rules of the competition There is no such rule, it is just your wishful thinking. The AFL have never said home ground, just no interstate travel. It is why the Dogs hosted Adelaide at the MCG and why Geelong only hosts Freo in Geelong when there are 3 others games in Victoria finals. Long may it continue so that a decent number of supporters of both teams may attend finals. Some of us waited a long time to see a finals victory and we deserved to be able to get a ticket.

2020-09-14T08:39:24+00:00

pablocruz

Roar Rookie


Did you exact revenge? Did you enjoy the game?

2020-09-14T08:38:19+00:00

pablocruz

Roar Rookie


'Martin needs other players to make him look good.' Lol. I thought I'd heard it all from Daffy Don regarding Dusty but you've taken it to a new level of ridiculousness . . . well done, Doc. Bravo.

2020-09-14T04:19:37+00:00

Dangersphere 10

Roar Rookie


think we all did, same old cats, and will remain the same old cats until they overcome the hodoo, like the tigers did in 17. They need to stand up when it counts and win back that big game respect, because everyone is proud of their H&A endeavours, but sick of their finals fad-outs year in year out. Performances like that hurt the confidence so so much...

2020-09-14T04:09:33+00:00

Dangersphere 10

Roar Rookie


My issues are to do with finals not being played in a location which is in keeping with the so called rules of the competition. I've always maintained that giving teams such as GWS home finals and denying Geelong theirs is not in any way fair or justifiable. Most people would agree, obviously not tiger fans as they have been the key beneficiary of late. Aside from that I don't recall disrespecting your team, nor being aggressive this last week in the way that others on here perhaps had. Certainly go back and look at the comments, I never proclaimed us as favourites, and I payed the current tigers team nothing but respect. It was a well deserved win on Friday, and your mob are clearly miles ahead of the rest, us included. Much work to be done, and in all honestly, a new game plan to be made to counter yours. The current system relies on too much to go right, won't ever stand up in a final against you guys. Really hope Scott and the coaching team realise this and make some changes, because that was a piss poor effort the other night, and I hope to never see that again, especially the upcoming finals...

2020-09-14T04:01:11+00:00

Dangersphere 10

Roar Rookie


Well coming from a soccer background, it's inevitable really lol.. I think at times there are genuine parallels to be drawn, with tiki-taka reminiscent of how Geelong and West Coast try to play, whilst Richmond play a high counter press style similar to the great German teams of the last era i.e 2012-2014 Bayern Munich/Dortmund. Ironically this very style is what put an end to "tiki-taka" in football, with better zonal defence rendering slow possession play all but useless, whilst their own potent counterattacks and turnover press provided ample easy opportunities to score. I see the tigers doing the same thing in the afl, absolutely destroying the high possession game style with their own, as demonstrated yet again on Friday night. Kudos to your boys for a good win, still miles ahead of us and the comp it seems..

2020-09-13T01:42:31+00:00

sven

Roar Rookie


caleb will dodge him by running between his legs

2020-09-12T23:56:37+00:00

Peter the Scribe

Roar Guru


Can’t wait to see the bloke! 213cm is freakishly big. Caleb Daniel will come up to his waist.

2020-09-12T23:07:25+00:00

David C

Roar Rookie


So many people tipped Geelong, so many people wrong. Go Tigers.

2020-09-12T22:55:25+00:00

Dave

Roar Rookie


Gee Nico your prediction of the match outcome was pretty much how it panned out! Well done :)

2020-09-12T22:43:24+00:00

Dave

Roar Rookie


You sure did!

2020-09-12T22:42:13+00:00

Dave

Roar Rookie


Port will get 2 home finals for a top 2 finish, qualifying and either a preliminary if they win week 1 or a qualifying and semi if they lose week 1.

2020-09-12T15:20:04+00:00

sven

Roar Rookie


maybe that would exorcise those ghosts of '18 for us tiges folk pts ?

2020-09-12T00:45:08+00:00

sven

Roar Rookie


i hear the wce boys had some pretty good gear back in the day

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