The Penrith Panthers, Melbourne Storm, Canberra Raiders and South Sydney Rabbitohs are left remaining in this year’s race for the NRL premiership, with a Sydney-based side and an out-of-towner guaranteed to be represented in the grand final.
Having both enjoyed the week off after winning their qualifying final matches in week one, the Panthers and Storm will attempt to set up a one vs two grand final for just the third time in the past decade, after 2012 and 2018.
The first preliminary final, to be played at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night, sees the Storm face the Raiders, who knocked out the Roosters in the grand final rematch last week and are aiming to reach just their second decider in the past quarter of a century.
The other sees the Panthers face the Rabbitohs at ANZ Stadium, which will expose a quirk in the finals system as Penrith will actually be playing on the Bunnies’ home turf, which will swing the pendulum the way of the men from Redfern.
So, who will move into next week’s decider, which will be played at the Olympic stadium? Here is your preview to the two preliminary finals.
[2] Storm vs [5] Raiders
Friday, October 16 at 6:50pm (AEDT)
Suncorp Stadium
This season: Raiders won 22-6 at AAMI Park in Round 3; Storm won 20-14 at GIO Stadium in Round 9.
Last meeting in a final: Raiders won 12-10 at AAMI Park, first qualifying final, 2019.
After being forced out of Victoria due to the second wave of COVID-19 cases in the state, the Storm have adapted to their temporary Sunshine Coast surroundings well, winning all of their matches there as well as three at Suncorp.
Craig Bellamy’s side are fresh off a week’s break, which was earned when they came from 10-0 down in their qualifying final against the Parramatta Eels to prevail 36-24.
It will be their sixth consecutive preliminary final, 12th in the past 15 years and their second against Canberra in the past five years.
The Green Machine go into this match off the back of an upset win over the Roosters in the semi-final at the SCG, which not only avenged last October’s heartbreaking grand final defeat but also put to an end the Chooks’ hopes of a hat-trick of premierships.
A try to Jack Wighton ten minutes from time saw Ricky Stuart’s side take the chocolates. The Raiders can also take some heart that they beat the Storm in last year’s qualifying final, which set them up to ultimately reach last year’s decider, which was their first since 1994.
(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
The stakes will be higher for the Storm to reach the grand final, which would be their ninth in the past 15 years and tenth overall, because it is expected that Cameron Smith will announce his imminent retirement, with Friday night’s game to be his last at Suncorp Stadium.
The ground has been a second home to the Storm skipper given what he has achieved in State of Origin, leading Queensland to countless victories, as well as leading Australia to the World Cup in 2017.
But can the Raiders send him into retirement early, or will Smith’s career go on for at least one more game – the biggest of them all?
For the winner: a berth in the grand final.
For the loser: season over.
Prediction: Storm by six points.
[1] Panthers vs [6] Rabbitohs
Saturday, October 17 at 7:50pm (AEDT)
ANZ Stadium
This season: Panthers won 20-12 at Kogarah Oval in Round 7.
Last meeting in a final: this is their first.
Ivan Cleary’s side have been the best team all year, having not been beaten for over four months, with their most recent and defeat of the year coming against Parramatta in Round 5.
From that point they proceeded to win their final 15 matches of the regular season to claim their first minor premiership since 2003, then beat the Roosters 29-28 in the qualifying final.
But if they are to make it 17 in a row, which would match the Bulldogs for the longest winning streak this century, they’ll have to do it without backrower Viliame Kikau, who copped a one-match suspension for a lifting tackle in the win over the Chooks.
(Matt King/Getty Images)
Further, because the NRL’s finals contract requires them to play second-or-third week venues at ANZ Stadium, they’ll actually be playing in the Bunnies’ backyard.
The Rabbitohs advanced to their third consecutive preliminary final after coming from behind to defeat the Eels 38-20.
It was their third consecutive victory, which has seen them score 144 points in that streak, including defeating the Roosters by a record 60-8 in the final round of the regular season.
But they will have to raise their game a notch against the Panthers, to whom Wayne Bennett’s men lost in Round 7 by 20-12.
In the same vein that Nathan Cleary holds the key to the Panthers reaching the grand final, Adam Reynolds is the man whom the Bunnies and their fans will be leaning on as they look to score a finals boilover.
For the winner: a grand final against either the Storm or Raiders – and for the Panthers, premiership favouritism.
For the loser: a wasted opportunity.
Prediction: Panthers by 14 points.
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
too funny
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
Agree WB, there aren't too many people backing the Bunnies, I guess it doesn't matter what a team did all year, it matters now, and for that we are definitely on-par with the Panthers. Plus we have the Super Coach and I think the 3 consecutive prelim finals will be the difference in getting the Bunnies through to the Big Dance. I'd expect the Bunnies would have worked hard on their right side defence this week, especially the threat that Cleary poses with his deft kicks near the goal line. I'm confident that Reynolds has a few clever attacking plays of his own to even it out. Go Bunnies!
Tim Carter
Roar Pro
Walter, I cannot hold my tongue any !onger. You have been moaning incessantly in the comments section of article after article about these 27 calls in Canberra's favour. Now, under the lightest degree of scrutiny, ie- one person watching the whole match again, those 27 errors weren't directly related to that match?! And why do you keep making the defamatory claim that officials were suspended, as opposed to being dropped? You get dropped for poor performance; you get suspended for improper conduct. And it was finals week one, with four matches played. Half the amount of officials were required the following week. Hardly noteworthy that some missed out. Move on.
Simmo85
Roar Rookie
Rabbits fan by any chance?
Simmo85
Roar Rookie
Karma haha, you keep whinging about this 1 call from last year. You’ve had cameron Smith refereeing games for years. And no one cares about Victoria!
Simmo85
Roar Rookie
Haha
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Great post Big Mig, not many tipping the Bunnies which won’t bother them at all. I’m with you and give them a punches chance of winning. The last two years they have basically limped into the Prelim Final with both those games on the road. This year they go in with good form and are playing at home. Sure the Panthers deserve to go in as favourites and rightly so. However if the Bunnies can sort the right side defence and get off to a decent start, it’s definitely game on. As you noted, plenty of the squad have been here in this game and will be desperate to make the Big Dance. Go Bunnies !
pot stirrer
Guest
Cheats v Whiners. Can't wait. I see the Raiders are resting Klein for this game.
Harry
Guest
Cheers Geoff. I moved to Melbourne in 2004 so I've still got memories of being in Canberra for the 2003 fires, and I can remember the weeks of yellow smoke hanging around the city after those fires. In January this year when it was really bad in Canberra I sent a box of N95 masks up to my family - fortunately I had a friend of a friend who was driving from Melbourne to Canberra. A few months later they sent a box of surgical masks back in the other direction to me after the second lockdown here was declared. Strange old year. Let's not forget also that the Raiders don't just represent Canberra but the whole of southern NSW where they have a huge supporter base - and that part of the state got absolutely belted in the fires. It's not been an easy year for anyone though and just about every team and their supporters will have a bunch of hard luck stories. Except maybe Easts! :silly:
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Good on you Harry - its been a hell of a year here in God's own country - the weeks of bushfires earlier in the year were like Armageddon - night after night of dense smoke when you couldn't open your windows or turn on the old evap air con - and the poor buggers down the coast and the Snowies had it even worse with homes and property lost - closely followed by the COVID-19 lockdown. A year of attrition. But we endure and don't bang on about it. And now we have experienced one of the most beautiful Spring's I can remember - its a strange world we live in. Fingers crossed for Friday night.
Willie La'ulu
Roar Guru
I figured you'd love a good "brew"!
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
You missed no Kikau..
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
Time for a different cuppa Willie, spot of Early Grey Bennett or English Canberra Breakfast..
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
I've posted some of these thoughts elsewhere but here are my thoughts on why the Rabbitohs will beat the Panthers 1) Momentum: Rabbitohs momentum is on a super high ( 150 + points against 3 strong teams). Momentum wins games, wins finals. Whilst the Panthers have momentum, that one point win over the Chooks was hardly inspiring, they almost lost it at the end, all the momentum was with the Chooks in the last 20 mins of that game. In addition the Panthers have had a 2 weeks hiatus which may have "offset" some of their momentum. 2) Resting Players – Bennett believes if you are fit, you play. The Panthers players really didn’t need a rest of 2 weeks, they need to play, they have been locked up in a bubble for 2 weeks the only thing that they played in the last 2 weeks is their mind. I think the Panthers will start off slow. 3) Pressure – ALL the pressure is on the Panthers. They are the favourites. 16 wins in a row, and if they lose this one, it is ALL over. This thought probably didn’t affect them in the 1st week of the finals as there was the safety net of another chance should they lose, this time, will be the first time that they will be confronted with the prospect of elimination. The nerves will get to them. Rabbitohs have been in this mindset for the last month. Additionally most of the Panthers players have not been here before, they might just well crack on the eve of the grand final. No pressure on the Rabbitohs. 4) Psychologically – this is a Bennett master stroke, by stating that the rabbitohs that played the panthers in round 7 (almost 4 months ago) ( it was played at Netstrata and lost by 8 pts) is a totally different team to that of the finals. His players need no other motivation than to prove this. 5) Home ground – It’s at ANZ, the Rabbitohs supporters will be out in full force. This will be the first time in almost the whole season that any NRL game will have +30,000 crowd singing Glory Glory. 6)Prelim Finals Experience (this is the Rabbitohs 3rd consecutive year in the Prelims) . Cook, Reynolds, Walker, T. Burgess, Tatola, Gagai, Alex Johnson, Murray, Cory Allan, C. Graham, have all been there before. they are finals hardened. They will know how to get the result. My tip: should the Panthers start to think they may be eliminated if it gets tight in the later half of the game, or start off slow due to nerves, the Rabbitohs will run away with the game. Rabbitohs by 20+.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
I'm one of them... :thumbup:
Harry
Guest
Walter, Melbourne has been the fastest growing city in Australia for years - and that's because of people moving here from elsewhere. Don't think for a second that Melbourne isn't full of people who support all sorts of teams other than the Storm. Just like yourself and everyone else here in Melbourne I've been in lockdown for most of the year - and before that I saw my home town Canberra where my parents and brother still live suffer months of choking smoke and imminent bushfire threat and even a catastrophic hailstorm (you may even recall that the Raiders had to up stumps and move their pre-season training camp to the Sunshine Coast in January because the bushfire smoke was so bad in Canberra that it was unsafe to be outside). All of which is a long way of saying that nothing would lift the spirits of this particular Melbourne resident more than seeing the Canberra Raiders win on Friday night and go on to win the Grand Final!
Gods Country
Guest
Cmon ! Poor Melbournians have been locked up like Rats in cages for months thanks to chairman Dan and his bungling dictatorship. Surely they deserve some sympathy from the rest of us enjoying our freedom ? I’m hoping for a Penrith victory now that my beloved Roosters have been eliminated , so I too am in reality hoping the pain continues in little Mexico.
Phil
Roar Rookie
What a weekend to try and pick winners. Each team is capable of victory with no obvious favourite in either game. Souths are running hot and any team that can score 60 points against a top eight side must be taken seriously. Plus they have the old genius guiding them. Canberra is like the silent assassin, waiting for the moment. The other two come in fresh after the week off but will that rest be a handicap? Sitting on the fence is no fun so I'll go for Melbourne and Penrith to contest the big one.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
I think we've moved on from the "6 again" decision Walter - but the media and some supporters certainly gave it some airplay and it hurt for a week or two to see it replayed over and over. I think the players and the coaching staff got over it quicker than others. It was really good to see Ricky invite Cummins down to Canberra and make it known they didn't blame him for the loss - they had their opportunities but weren't good enough - credit to the Roosters defence. Funny how we can see a game differently - that final will go down as one of the great Raiders performances against the odds - and that pass by BJ to Bateman as a sublime crowning moment of the game - but the Storm fans won't see that. One day you'll have to admit that the Storm weren't good enough that night. Simple as that. Karma will have nothing to do with the result on Friday but I hope the best team wins on the night and that team is the Raiders of course. I give them a very good chance of victory.
Walter Black
Guest
:thumbup: