With the trade period over and draft occurring soon, it’s time to try some early speculation about the season ahead.
This shapes as one of the most intriguing seasons yet as there could be some real movement into and within the top eight. Using seafaring terminology, here is a look at how the ladder could pan out in 2021.
Full steam ahead
Richmond and Port Adelaide stand out in this leading category. It is hard to go past Richmond, although continuing the voyage is a difficult one. With admirable depth in their list and arguably the greatest Tiger of all in Dustin Martin, a well-established game plan and strong leadership on and off the field all make for a happy mix.
Of course, a three-peat would really put them in rarefied air up there with Hawthorn, Brisbane and much further back the powerhouse Melbourne teams. Key constraints for Richmond are obvious ones: complacency, satisfaction with success and lack of hunger and injuries to key personnel, something that could bedevil all teams. They were able to deal with and put aside off-field dramas, the sign of a well-functioning outfit.
In this category, although not to the same extent, is Port Adelaide. 2020 was full of promise and the Power should be smarting at their narrow loss in the rain-sodden preliminary final, especially at home. The further blossoming of their younger players and some shrewd recruitment during the trade season bodes well.
A nice tailwind
There are three teams in this camp and they could go all the way if things go well: Brisbane, Geelong and St Kilda. These teams did well in 2020 winning at least one final, which should hold them in good stead. However, there are a few questions over them.
How much did Brisbane benefit from the non-travel factor in 2020 given that their record in Melbourne is not strong? Will the younger players, many of whom did not play particularly well in the semi-final, continue to develop and what impact will Joe Daniher have?
For Geelong, the acquisition of Jeremy Cameron is a good one but potentially at a hefty long-term price. Will this ageing list be able to have one more shot in the locker?
For St Kilda, much like Brisbane, can the younger players continue the upward movement? While not as prolific in this trade period compared to the last, there is a sense that this list is building nicely, requiring more refinement rather than drastic surgery.
Uncharted waters
This next and largest group is the most intriguing and has the most questions. In this group are Collingwood, GWS, Essendon, Melbourne, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs. These sides could perhaps make their way into contention for high honours or slide down the table.
For Collingwood, much has been said and written about their messy trade period. A lot is being left to making sure that this upcoming draft really counts, especially for key forwards and midfield replenishment, and as everyone knows drafting can be hit and miss. Added to this is the unknown intangible impact on the team morale and fabric associated with the contentious departure of some key players. They have been thereabouts but not quite good enough for the last few seasons.
GWS is somewhat of a mystery. It is surprising that a team which lost the 2019 grand final could not rise to the occasion in 2020 and indeed fell away sharply. To what extent the dropping of the captain contributed to the poor season is hard to assess, although the season was well and truly on the rocks before that happened. Possibly they have been overrated as a club, as observers have been seduced by the sheer volume of early-season draft picks.
For Essendon, it is hard to gauge whether it is on the right side of the ledger post-trade. The loss of Adam Saad and Daniher may or not be offset by some acquisitions and a very strong draft hand.
(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Melbourne is a perennial underachiever and while they have recruited quite well and look to have a balanced list, they need to find a way to address their habit of losing key and winnable games late in the season. It appears that a changed mindset is the key.
West Coast stumbled early in the finals for two years running, and its core A-graders are mostly veterans. It is perhaps unclear whether there is enough young emerging, exciting talent.
The Bulldogs went close to winning their final against St Kilda, and their best is strong. They look to have the most all-around, diverse and complete midfield in the competition, which Adam Treloar’s speed will add to. However, the bookends remain a concern.
All aboard
This group consists of the Gold Coast Suns, Fremantle and Carlton. Any one or more of these could catapult into finals contention.
In particular, Gold Coast and Fremantle have potential galore with young lists, rising star nominees and some of the competition’s most exciting, emerging talent such as Matt Rowell, Izak Rankine and Caleb Serong. In addition, both have tactically astute coaches and the home-ground factor is real. A bit of steadiness under fire and experience are the keys.
For Carlton the future must be now. They have been promising for a while, and have been mainly through drafting but also some astute trading and slowly stockpiling talent especially in key positions. Time for the green shoots to flower.
Choppy seas
Hawthorn are an intriguing story. Arguably, they are on the precipice of falling right way and looking at a total rebuild or somehow managing to stay in touch with the top eight. Their 2020 season was a very mixed bag. Retirements and Isaac Smith’s move to Geelong could be felt more deeply than anticipated.
Sydney are an interesting case. They do have some emerging talent but rely too heavily on Tom Papley for scoring. They are confronted with demographic issues of replacing their older brigade. Whether Lance Franklin can be the same force again is also a major question.
The fact that it took Adelaide until Round 15 in 2020 to record their first win might send shivers down the spines of supporters. However, there were signs of promise and their younger brigade including the likes of Elliot Himmelberg could take the next steps.
Early indications suggest a bleak year in 2021 for the Kangaroos. The loss of the coach, a radical de-listing exercise and the loss of experienced and talented players in Ben Brown and Shaun Higgins suggests that things have gone awry. However, the appointment of David Noble, who appears to be a mentoring coach in the mould of Chris Fagan, could be exactly what this young group needs.
The recruitment of Jaidyn Stephenson (the 2018 version) could be pivotal now and for the future. However, at the moment it’s not quite there for the Kangaroos.
Steve
Guest
In regards to the Swans "aging" list, it is important to note that the Swans are the third youngest list in the comp, only behind Freo and GC. Those old players in Kennedy and Buddy in particular are important, although Swans do seem to be making plans for a Buddy-less forward line, see their Round 1 team list against Adelaide. Heeney was the tallest up there basically. Rowbottom should develop into a fine Kennedy replacement, and the Swans have Stephens and Campbell who could be two of the better outside mids in the league once they develop. But it's not like the Swans need to start a rebuild, unlike Hawthorn, who are an absolute rabble. Finishing bottom four with a top four list age isn't good. In fact, add nearly three first round draft picks on that already young and talented list, and the Swans are probably the best set out of the bottom four 2020 teams.
Maxy
Roar Rookie
maybe #8 could potentially happen,#16 very much could happen,hope #18 does happen
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
My 2021 season #1 North #2 Bombers #3 Suns #4 Blues #5 Dees #6 Tigers #7 Swans #8 Dockers #9 Hawks #10 Port #11 WC #12 GWS #13 Dogs #14 Cats #15 Lions #16 Crows #17 Saints #18 Pies Based on no observation of anything.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Yeah, I was thinking that as I wrote it having noticed Cracka had left him off the original list. I'm not really too comfortable with the whole A-Grader rating. If it's based on being in the All Australian list, then that's the opinion of sports writers. If it's Brownlow votes, then it's the opinion of umpires. Salary? Sheppard's salary wouldn't be huge. Hard to know what the rating actually is.
Footyguy
Guest
Port Adelaide- 1st-9th, Fantasia let's be honest Dodoro made them overpay, Aliir Good get, remember Bergman and Mead coming through Richmond- 1st-4th- They're Richmond. 'Nuff Said. St Kilda- 2nd-10th- I know people like to knock crouch 'oh he gets a lot of the ballbut he doesn't hurt you' make no mistake crouch is a big get and will make a huge difference. Same with Jack Higgins. Sydney 7th-16th- I think a lot of football commentators have in their head 2016 Sydney not 2020 Sydney, their young guys are overrated, Callum Mills hasn't played better than 2016 almost 5 years ago, Zak Butters was nominated for all Australian last year Ollie Florent was drafted two years before Butters and should have been nominated for all Australian by now, Will Hayward is a he a medium fwd or tall fwd, same with McCartin is a key def or key fwd, the point I'm making is the list is a little confusing to those outside of the know. Hickey, I'm an eagles supporter, he's OK, but he's no Dean Cox or Aaron Sandilands don't expect that, even then, they delisted Knoll, McClean is a midfielder, not a ruck option, Jack Bell is a break glass player not to be relied on. Honestly get Jackson Trengove Sydney please, could have a massive impact of the season West Coast- 1-10 I'm an eagles supporters, I love the eagles but I'm quite annoyed we didn't maximise the draft this year. 2019 we completely ignored the draft, we made a nonsensical pick swap we traded away pick 52 and 64 for pick 47 and 91 which wasn't used, giving away a lot of draft points, we paid the farm for Kelly, we only started the 2018 with pick 29 when we initially had 21 but due to pick swaps we went down to 29, what would have been the better option would have been to draft our pick 21 for a future pick in 2019 because lets face it every eagles supporter in 2018 knew that next year we'd go after Kelly. The only draft we have really invested in recent years was 2017. Our first round pick Jarrod Brander who was meant to be a once in a generational key forward talent instant replacement for Josh Kennedy has seriously struggled at afl level from 2018-2019 and has not looked like the player on the highlights package reel. He showed signs, but he still played the Richmond game where he made some terrible mistakes. Jarrod Brander is one of the most important eagles players There was a ton of interest in him in the trade period, we had a paltry draft hand but we chose to keep him If Brander can kick 20+ Goals then watch out opposition teams Petruculle needs to add another layer and complexity to his game style Petruculle should be played as a midfielder Witherden delays the rebuild a year, steal of the trade period Western Bulldogs 3-9 I don't why everybody is raving and ranting about bulldogs getting martin There has been talk about Stefan Martin retiring since 2017 35 years old, we all boomed up Sam Jacobs look what happened He's still good but he's not going to save the bulldogs list Their midfield is stacked, poor Garcia will struggle to break in
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Might need to rename to SASS. Or Sassy to be cute.
Footyguy
Guest
GWS Giants- 5th-15th- Really hard to read on at the moment, really hard, Hogan I'm not sure, their midfield is stacked but it doesn't fully work properly cohesively together Hawthorn- 10th-13th- Their list is quite easy to read, I'm sick of this rubbish about clubs just ridiculously going over the top stacking key defenders and key forwards. The game starts in the midfield at the end of the day if you're not up to it look at the midfield. The midfield doesn't quite work for mine, Phillips I like a lot, same they'll get a great young player Will Phillips Elijah Hollands but they'll need a year to develop, 2022 they'll play finals Melbourne- 3rd-11th- No Excuses- Absolutely no excuses, they have the talent, one of the comps best midfielders North Melbourne 13th-18th- North honestly have done better than expected this offseason, and I've been a cynic of North before but surprisingly optimistic in some ways their list is a lot better than Adelaide. Remember Cunnington barely played, Ziebell barely played, Polec fell out of favour with Shaw, Dumont's still young, Bosenvulagi looks like a good player, Stephenson is an absolute gun and north Melbourne will be laughing for the next ten years about how cheap they got him, In my opinion I expect North Melbourne to get Logan McDonald not Adelaide. Why? Fanservice - come on Adelaide draft this guy he's south Australian, and he can ruck where Adelaide have heavily struggled this year outside of Reilly O Brien, Adelaide has always had this traditional culture of drafting south aussies and logan McDonald is more likely to move back to perth if he is drafted to Adelaide than Nth Melbourne
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
Yes, the best, oldest and most comprehensive rivalry in all codes of senior football is Port v Norwood. —— Port has finished Flag winners more than any other team in Australia; any code. East Freo 2nd and Norwood 3rd. —– But Norwood is the only team to best Port in all 1-2 finishes. —— Glenelg is famous for practising safe-sex at a GF
Footyguy
Guest
BASIC ANALYSIS PT 1 Adelaide- 14th-18th- don't have the inside midfield depth and are still a very young team Brisbane- 1st-8th- Have a good list, depends on injuries Carlton- 5th-12th- Honestly they lack a true midfield bull (like a Sam Powell-Pepper, Tom Rockcliff type of player) besides Patty Cripps. Carlton fans say Setterfield, Dow but they haven't take the next step yet. Philp could be a surprise packet. Ed Curnow and Marc Murphy is getting quite old, they have too many half back flankers and have a lack of key fwd depth Collingwood- 6th-13th- Their list is still good but Pendlebury is past his prime, that year Sidebottom missed will hurt and probably won't get back to his 2018 form maybe he'll still be good
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
You seem to be missing the point Graeme, and I'm not sure if you're doing that deliberately.
Graeme
Roar Rookie
No way is Sheppard a B grader. An All Australian only just being noticed for his sterling achievements week in week out.
Graeme
Roar Rookie
WASS you said the reason it in your own post “Teams need fit senior players to get them through to the end of the year” which WCE have. Geelong h as be the oldest team but the heart and soul of the team Selwood is starting to fall apart.
Graeme
Guest
Let's get back to the real and out of the Robert Walls zone Cracka. You will get tremendous odds and a public hanging if WCE don't make the finals, it just won't happen. 4th place absolute worst case losing Nic Nat and JK.
Cracka
Roar Rookie
Mate I'm not saying WCE will die a slow death and disappear or move to Tasmania, all I'm saying is I don't think 2021 will be a great year they are slow out of their backline their forwards will not play the whole year at their best, but I did say that 'Ryan – will only get better and could be the best forward in the AFL for the next 5 years', but 2021 I think will be a bit of, 'yeah maybe we are a little old or slow and we need to bring in some new talent' for 2022. they simply won't make the grand final in 2021 and will be lucky to make the 8.
Graeme
Roar Rookie
A tad patronising going down the “champ” road Cracka????. You are right about the pace coming out of the backline which is where Richmond tear everyone apart. JK is the only key that is getting too old IMHO. I honestly think the other missing ingredient is the flair, setting up and opportunism of Willie Rioli. Jarmaine Jones and Jarrod Cameron hopefully will improve this season. Jones looks OK but Cameron is very small. Skill wise the cattle is there so they will go more than OK.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Remember the BS adjuster Graeme...I think Longmuire has Freo playing with confidence and freedom that they haven't had in years, and it wouldn't surprise me if they go as well as WC next year. Although, the home ground thing seems to be much more important to WC; it's a real mental thing for them.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
In what way? Geelong is the oldest team so therefore they should be flag favourites...obviously there's more to it than just being fit but it is certainly needed to be competitive.
Cracka
Roar Rookie
I look at the WCE list and they look slow out of their backline, their keys players are getting older and may not see the season out, I just worry more about them than a Collingwood or Geelong when it comes to slipping down the ladder, just an opinion, champ, you have yours and I have mine,
Graeme
Roar Rookie
Your comments are worst case Cracka. Kennedy won’t be any worse if he plays the season out because for his whole career he has been held by one arm so won’t be held back anymore being a year older. If he does get injured Oscar Allen who will be an elite player soon will be dangerous. Watch Duggan, he has improved immensely and will fill Hurn’s boots no worries. Witherden will take over Duggan’s role and will be a premiership player at WCE. Cripps is fine but Zac Langdon will be there too. Jarmaine Jones and Jarrod Cameron will graduate to effective small forwards. Worst case scenario the way I see it is a 5 year dynasty????
Graeme
Roar Rookie
Not overconfident at all WASS just being honest. You have no idea how hard it is talking up Freo as a WCE supporter. I fear they will improve massively. Peter Bell is a winner and will change the traditional Freo pre AFL culture which is not to be messed with.