As Matt To’omua ran in one of the best individual tries of Super Rugby AU and of Australian rugby more broadly over the last few seasons on Friday night, it occurred to me that in 2021 there is a lot more to the Melbourne Rebels than first appeared in their opening game of the year.
If you think back to their very pragmatic, very deliberate game plan to nullify the Queensland Reds in Round 2, and then think about their displays since then and particularly in Melbourne against the Waratahs, you realise that they have suddenly become one of the more adaptable Australian sides in recent memory.
In fact, my first thought was to go back to how Ewen McKenzie had the championship-winning Queensland Reds of 2011 playing completely differently from one week to the other, all based on who they were playing.
For the removal of all doubt – and this really shouldn’t need clarifying – no, I’m not suggesting the 2021 Melbourne Rebels are as good a side as the 2011 Queensland Reds.
But when you think about how wide a variation we’ve seen in the Rebels approaches to their four games this year, you’ll see that my point makes sense.
For one thing, they carried twice as much and made twice as many metres against the Brumbies in Canberra as they did against the Reds in Brisbane. But that’s to be expected, you might say, because they had 53 percent of the ball in Canberra and only 39 percent of it in Brisbane.
But then they only had 40 percent of the ball against the Waratahs in Melbourne – despite dominating territory with more than 70 percent of the split – and they still managed to carry almost twice as much as they did against the Reds and made more than twice the ground.
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Against the Reds, they carried just 59 times for 225 metres. Every game since they’ve made at least 450 metres, and cracked five hundred against the Western Force in Perth. They carried 114 times against the Brumbies, 140 times against the Force, and 98 times against the Waratahs.
Interestingly, the backs carried 57 percent of the time against the Reds a month ago and 59% against the Waratahs. It was a neat 50-50 forwards-backs split when they took the physicality to the Brumbies, and just over half for the backs against the Force.
I’m interested to note that the Rebels’ backs have been doing the bulk of the carrying, given I and most of you have all noted how little shape there appears to be about their attack. I’d love to find the time to see how this compares to the other sides.
But have the Rebels kicked more against certain teams this year? Surprisingly, no, they haven’t.
Respectively, they kicked 22 times against the Reds, 20 times against the Brumbies, and 25 times against both the Force and Waratahs.
So even when it felt like they kicked the cover off it in Brisbane, they really didn’t. In fact, it was entirely consistent.
Marika Koroibete. (Photo by Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images)
What has varied is how often they kicked relative to how often they carried in those games.
Against the Reds in Brisbane, the Rebels averaged 2.7 carries for every kick. Clearly, they wanted Queensland to have the ball, and preferred defending and slowing the Reds down at the breakdown.
Against the Waratahs, where they had a similar share of possession but carried nearly twice and much and made more than twice as many metres, they averaged 3.9 carries per kick. Against both the Brumbies and Force, with at least 50 percent possession, they averaged 5.7 carries per kick; both of them being games where possession was as important to their plan as the end of the ground they occupied.
The changing number of carries per kicks indicates variable approaches, but also an improved efficiency within their carrying. The Rebels were able to carry more and make more ground, thus setting up better positions to kick from.
This improved efficiency also comes with an improvement in their second phase play, where against the Brumbies, Force, and Waratahs, the Rebels offloaded 11, 8, and 13 times.
Against the Reds in Brisbane, where they kicked once for every four passes? Just one offload.
What of Matt To’omua’s play? How do his kick/pass/run numbers stack up? Unsurprisingly in line with the team’s.
To’omua’s carry numbers don’t change a lot across the four games, ranging from five against Queensland to nine against the Force.
But he passed twice as many times against both the Brumbies and Force as he did against the Reds, and nearly twice as much as against the Waratahs. And he actually kicked more against the Brumbies and Force, when the Rebels carried the most.
And To’omua’s pass numbers don’t directly correlate, but Reece Hodge’s carry numbers don’t spike the same way in the same games. The Rebels attack still seems a bit unstructured and shapeless.
Their back three carried a lot more against the Waratahs than they did against the Reds, but that’s more because Tom Pincus and Lachie Anderson have tried to match Marika Koroibete’s involvements as they get more used to the Rebels methods.
Clearly, the Rebels have shown an adaptability from week to week, and it’s also clear that they have found a more efficient way to make ground than at the start of the season, even with similar shares of total possession.
The question for the Rebels is going to be how they start taking advantage of this adaptability properly, and it’s a question that will remain and hover over them until the use it to topple the Brumbies and Reds above them on the Australian table.
It will probably remain until they can beat them consistently, in fact, and it will equally apply for facing the Crusaders and whoever happen to be the next-best team in New Zealand when and if the trans-Tasman convergence happens.
Importantly, the Rebels will spend the bye week back home in Melbourne on the back of a really strong win on home turf, their first in more than a year.
For a team that spent more than three months on the road last year, and another month this year to ensure the competition started as scheduled, the phycological advantage of home comforts can’t be underestimated.
But, of course, we’ve been in very similar positions with the Melbourne Rebels before; becoming convinced that they’re about the start challenging the best teams.
It might just be that their biggest challenge is convincing themselves.
Brett McKay is back writing for The Roar, and is also writing weekly rugby columns for ABC Sport.
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks BeeMc – I would have said the Rebs are this season’s surprise package – Except I think the force is also doing alright as well considering they are two years old (version 2.0) – and they were terrible last year
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
www.rugby.com.au Every match report has detailed match stats. I suggest you perhaps try and look at the facts, rather than focusing on an air of superiority, considering it's based on only looking at what you want. Also kick numbers are pretty relevant. If you can compare how many times you kicked, vs how many phases of play you had, they absolutely are. I notice you ignore the clean break numbers. Guess that don't suit the position you've decided on before looking at the facts...
Waxhead
Roar Rookie
@TWAS Don't know where you get your stats from but..... lets assume they're correct. So you alleged against Reds the Rebels had 59 carries from only 40 rucks and had 28 kicks. Against Brumbies you allege 114 carries from 88 rucks and 27 kicks. Well the carry to ruck proportions are similar in both. And your kick numbers are irrelevant without overall possession stats. TWAS I suggest that you concentrate on trying to advance a logical proposal rather than being pre-occupied with arguing with me :laughing:
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Let's look at their Semi Final team from last year? Vunipola Fifita - From Tonga Moli Sooaemalelagi - From Melbourne Archer Holz Ryan McCauley Jack Digby Dean Oakman-Hunt - From Canberra Charlie Gamble - From Christchurch Rob Leota - From Melbourne Jack Grant - From Country NSW (Orange) Cohan Guerra - From Country QLD (Townsville) Henry Paterson Lalakai Foketi Alex Newsome - From Country NSW (Glen Innes) Richard Woolf Don Donato - From Country NSW (Orange) When will Eastern Suburbs develop their own players?
Brett McKay
Expert
That's not the same Easts that recruited ex-Force fullback Clay Uyen across the country from Perth for this season, is it?
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Is that like Easts that was chock full of Canberra and Melbourne players last year? Or does it not count when Sydney clubs recruit interstate players?
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Considering many of the players at the Tahs were part of the Aus 20s that finished 2nd at the JWC in 2019, they are close to the best in the world actually. The NRL isn’t tipping money into the west though. Never has. It makes money from it.
Andrew
Guest
Yep you are 100% correct re volunteers (I actually grew up out west and played colts for the Emus, just so you know I'm not talking rubbish :)). Again this is exactly my point, it's not just going to change unless NSW/AU rugby tips a lot of money into (Just like NRL and now AFL is doing) And please! Can you honestly say with a hand on your heart that they are the best 18/20 yr old players running around in this country. You might want to go for a drive and see how good some of these kids are playing league.....
Rhys Bosley
Roar Pro
Good analysis thanks Brett. Despite a fairly conservative start the rebels appear to be rapidly developing their game. They are definitely to be taken seriously.
jeznez
Roar Guru
The guy I want to see more of at the Force is McDonald. Quality young player and like Lonergan at the Brumbies is also a very good goal kicker.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
They aren’t the best of the inner city clubs. They were the best at 18, and the best at 20 too. I disagree players are “lost” in the west. There’s definitely potential talent out there, but the fact is this has never been a thriving rugby area. Which is why the clubs in that area aren’t strong. Because it’s a battle for volunteers, which are what all code’s clubs are run on. And as rugby has never been that big there, there’s less people building these clubs. Uni for example probably aren’t better than Penrith because the people involved are doing a better job or working harder than the same people involved in Penrith. They’re doing better because there’s more of them.
Guess
Roar Rookie
Duh even the wallabies lost their shape and smarts the moment Toomua got injured
Andrew
Guest
Sure, I get your point, but I don't think you get mine. The names you have talked of (Bell, HJH, Swinton, Horton, Gordon) are the best of the inner Sydney clubs. Bell and maybe Swinton might make NZ super teams (but that's probably a stretch). It's not like any of them strike fear into the hearts of the Kiwis/Saffas/English when we play them. We are never going to build a strong conveyor belt of players by relying on a few good players and mix of "best of a bad lot" to fill the gaps with the current model. So many kids/men out west are lost to the game, because we haven't put any emphasis in these areas. There are guys who can't make their first grade sides in the league competitions as there is so much competition, if we could attract a large % of those guys they would make a huge impact. We have to start somewhere, and just how players move Super clubs for their interest (which I have no problem with) they should move Shute clubs for the better of the game. Lets be honest, at best they may only play 4-6 games, but the help at training and bringing the crowds down would do a lot. The NZ rugby does exactly that, they spread their players around as to help build and promote clubs, it's a no brainer really.
Jockstar
Guest
Rebels are chock a block full of Shute shield players. Instead of wasting billions on the soulless Rebels they should have had a 2nd Sydney team which would have created tribalism and stopped the unnecessary moving of players from their families and base
Geoff Parkes
Expert
Yes, not saying he's not a good player Josh. But he's looked a bit awkward at times with kicking and some of those small skills you expect from speed wingers at this level. That try was a set move so he was supposed to be on the left edge, although what I liked was that he tracked in behind Ili on a line towards the posts, and could have scored earlier if Ili had chosen to reverse pass. And then when he didn't, he changed his line back to the outside, and was rewarded for his support with the try. And yes, he's been good at the breakdown - although these days, all backs are expected to pilfer if they happen to be first man in with a sniff.
Josh
Roar Rookie
Do you think the fact that he is just willing to get involved in rucks and has been rewarded with 3 penalty’s off pilfers is skewing this? I think he is still getting used to the wing position but thought his ability to track from right wing all the way in support and score a try on the left wing was very promising last week.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Very concerning!!!
Goady
Roar Rookie
Yes concerning to see him icing that groin again!
Goady
Roar Rookie
I would like to think at this point in their history, with their full compliment that would be the case? I’m just not convinced with the last 3 games played that the numbers show an adaptable attacking structure? No doubt they can still take down the top two on their day, as they have shown.
Brett McKay
Expert
Yep, and that's all entirely valid Robbo. I don't think there's any doubt To'omua will be the Rebels most important player for the next few years..