Already only two rounds into the 2021 AFL season, the murmurs and media talk – including social media chatter – turns to coaches and the extent to which they are scrutinised.
Based on this chatter and other factors, I have constructed a coaching scrutiny ladder ranging from the most under scrutiny or pressure, perceived or otherwise, to the least.
I then compare with the current position of the team on the ladder. This is an exercise that can be conducted at various stages of the year.
Coaching scrutiny ladder
1. Nathan Buckley (Collingwood, ninth)
2. Simon Goodwin (Melbourne, fourth)
3. David Teague (Carlton, 15th)
4. Ken Hinkley (Port Adelaide, first)
5. Chris Scott (Geelong, 11th)
6. Leon Cameron (GWS, 16th)
7. John Longmire (Sydney Swans, third)
8. Brett Ratten (St Kilda, tenth)
9. Ben Rutten (Essendon, 17th)
10. David Noble (North Melbourne, 18th)
11. Chris Fagan (Brisbane, 14th)
12. Matthew Nicks (Adelaide, 12th)
13. Stuart Dew (Gold Coast Suns, sixth)
14. Justin Longmuir (Fremantle, eighth)
15. Luke Beveridge (Western Bulldogs, fifth)
16. Adam Simpson (West Coast Eagles, seventh)
17. Alastair Clarkson (Hawthorn, 13th)
18. Damian Hardwick (Richmond, second)
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
I group the coaching scrutiny ladder into six groups. The first group is made up of positions one to four in scrutiny and pressure.
Collingwood being Collingwood means that the coach is always under the pump. Add to this close to ten years in the job, with limited success, and it means that Nathan Buckley takes number one position.
Interestingly, the first four are from big clubs that are historically successful, but they have very limited recent success in premierships. These clubs attract considerable external noise.
The choice of Ken Hinkley at number four might surprise but expectations are high at the spiritual home Alberton Oval, and although things are going well at the moment, that can change at any moment.
The next group ranges from positions five to seven. This group should be under more pressure but are perhaps surprisingly not as much so. Despite Chris Scott’s protestations, the performance of Geelong in the finals since their last premiership has been mediocre.
A shock loss to Adelaide in Round 1 and a very lucky win against Brisbane at home should have the pressure metre running hot.
For GWS, it is surprising that the coach does not come under more scrutiny given the rapid fall from grace following a grand final appearance in 2019 and player exodus. Perhaps being outside the Melbourne media bubble assists.
John Longmire is revitalising his side, going for youth, although Sydney’s finals performances since their flag in 2012 have been patchy, including two grand final losses in 2014 and 2016.
Brett Ratten is in a group on his own at number eight. He is an experienced coach, although not at St Kilda. His overall coaching record is mixed, but St Kilda looks in promising shape, notwithstanding their loss at the weekend.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The next group relates to positions nine and ten. These are the first-year coaches, who despite ladder positions, will be given reasonable breathing space. However, should the losses mount, then the heat will come quickly.
Following this group are those in positions 11 to 14. These are recent coaches in the AFL, with less than five years at the helm, and in a number of cases are either tracking well or building nicely, such as Gold Coast under Stuart Dew and Fremantle under Justin Longmuir.
While statistically David Teague fits into this camp, the pressure of being head coach at Carlton elevates him into the most scrutinised category.
Finally is the group 15-18 that is in the ‘recent credits in the bank’ classification – coaches who have achieved the ultimate premiership in recent times. The incumbent premiership coach, Damien Hardwick, has the most credits and obtains the wooden spoon for being the least under scrutiny.
The ladder above shows a comparison between the coaching scrutiny ladder and actual ladder position of the club in question at this moment.
There is no overwhelmingly strong relationship between the two. However, tentatively, there appears to be some relationship at the lower reaches of the coach ladder. More secure leaders have their clubs in better positions.
Of course, the sample size is only small based on two rounds, but as has been said a great deal in recent days, very few clubs recover to make finals after being 0-2 down. I have no doubt as well that the scrutiny ladder will vary considerably before we see the end of 2021.
Chip
Roar Guru
Chris, thanks. Not sure you understand the premise of the article at all. It is about coaches under scrutiny from most scrutinised or under pressure to least. How can Buckley with his “ out of touch “ style be at the bottom??? How can Beveridge who won a flag just five years ago and has them in great shape be at the top?
Chris
Guest
Typo: weekly*
Chris
Guest
Excellent low-key coach. He is an actions speak louder than words man. He has a plan and is executing to perfection. He and Beveridge deserve all the plaudits of the football media. By the way, Buckley isn't leaving because there's no media outlet willing to sign him up. Perhaps AFL Roar could give him a job then we could have fun on a weekely basis.
American Swan
Roar Rookie
Why do you think Longmire should be under more pressure? I am diehard Swans supporter and I have no problems with Longmire’s performance. He’s lost all the talent that got them to Grand Finals in ‘12, ‘14, and ‘16. He has blooded a ton of young kids while remaining competitive. Not necessarily a lot of wins the last two seasons but few big losses. At the same time, he began implementing a new game style last year. All this development work seems to be paying off very nicely this season.
Chris
Guest
Totally disagree. How can you ignore Luke Beveridge and John Longmire? They should be right at the top and Buckley should be 18th with his out of touch style. Besides, he is too reliant on Sanderson and Harvey. His cohorts don't have such expensive well-credentialed assistants, do they? Review your Coaching League Ladder please. You have made premature calls that are poor and not worth commenting on. One last thing I'd like to add, Clarkson, Ratten, Cameron and Longmuir are football dinosaurs and out of touch with the modern game. This may even catch up with Hardwick.Watch this space. Poor article with no real understanding of 2021 AFL.
Joe from Perth
Guest
Both played in Port's 2004 Premiership team. Both were very good players but not out and out stars. Does that mean anything? Similar attitudes to hard work? They know what it takes, and how long it takes?
maurice
Guest
Well put together ladder. However I am thinking Longmire is too far up. He has hovered well in a rebuild with also a extensive injury list, whether you like the style they are playing on the day or not they always have a team giving it all.
Macca
Roar Rookie
I have no doubt that the Blues will be going hard at a top shelf mid at the end of the year, like they have been for the past 3 or 4. As for Kelly, Interestingly over the first 2 rounds he has averaged the same number of effective disposals as Curnow, the same number of turnovers, 3.5 fewer contested possessions and 2 fewer Score Involvements from 10% more time on the ground. Doesn't seem to be the player he was back in 2019.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
You know what Carlton need to do Macca - go hard at Josh Kelly. He's the quality of player they need. And they get the chance they should throw a heap of cash at Josh Dunkley as well (not that I want him to leave the Dogs).
Macca
Roar Rookie
You don't make top 3 in a club B&F as a shut down player if you aren't shutting people down.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Yeah that shows where Carlton is as a club. No good being a shut down player if you don't actually shut anyone down; then you're just a liability.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Waste of a player? Shutting down a key opponent is a waste? No need for the back 6 then. You do realise Ed has gone 3rd, 2nd, 3rd in the last 3 club B&F’s
Macca
Roar Rookie
Marchbank would have been a terrible match up for De Goey, he doesn’t have the pace Plowman does. Plowman has done well on De Goey before and the issue was more the way the ball moved. Cornes has had it in for Plowman for years.
pablocruz
Roar Rookie
I know I'd be pi$$ed if my side were 'up there' for a decade without saluting!
berrlins
Roar Pro
people are having a go at Leon Cameron and rightly so, but the GWS contract department needs to be sacked as well, Cogs signed for 1 million a season just before the 2019 grand final, has not looked like a million dollar player since and his captaincy has probably contributed to the steady decline of the giants, and Kelly has an option to sign a million dollar a year 8 year contract at the end of this year. 2 million dollars of a 13 million dollar salary cap going to two players who aren't playing anywhere near what they should be considering their paypacket, their forward line just lost it's best player when Cameron last year, admittedly that wasn't for money but they need to be throwing bigger contracts at their forwards to stay not their midfields, right now GWS are praying that Kelly goes back to Victoria but I doubt any club would offer anywhere near that money considering his last 12 monthes. has gone from a potential superstar to a b grader way too quickly.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Well there’s a waste of a player then. Who did he shut down?
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Now now I think Cornes was pretty fair in his critique of plowman in the pies match. He should not have been playing on de goey. They need a Caleb marchbank to come back or something like thay
O M
Roar Rookie
Obsessed with identities and avatars. :laughing:
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Dew is a coaches coach though, that and he was an extremely intelligent footballer, while Hardwick has hard earned experience.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
are you the old IAP?