A lot has happened since the last round of expansion and even a lot since last year. But one thing that hasn’t changed is discussion about expansion. Given that, maybe it’s a good time for a bit of a look at where things stand.
In the last round of expansion there were 15 bids that stuck around, which were then cut down to a shortlist of ten for consideration. The list of 15 were Western United, Macarthur, South West Sydney, Southern Expansion, Team 11 in Dandenong, Wollongong Wolves, South Melbourne, Western Pride in Ipswich, Canberra and Capital Region, Brisbane City, Gold Coast United, West Adelaide, Belgravia Leisure, Tasmania and Fremantle City.
Brisbane Strikers had a high-profile bid, but dropped out. The Sunshine Coast were also there for a while, but have since disappeared.
The Macarthur and South West Sydney bids merged and were successful, as were Western United.
Southern Expansion packed up and left while Team 11 have now got behind Melbourne City and have dropped their bid. Belgravia Leisure were a nothing bid that went nowhere and haven’t been seen or heard of since.
The remaining bids from Wollongong Wolves, South Melbourne, Ipswich, Canberra, Brisbane City, Gold Coast United, West Adelaide, Tasmania and Fremantle all seem to still be interested.
Of those, Canberra appears to be a shoo-in as the next expansion team. They have the highest participation rate of any state or territory, a highly successful W-League team and perhaps most importantly the backing of Qatar Sports Investments, who own Paris Saint-Germain. Suffice to say that financial stability will not be a concern.
The Wollongong Wolves are a highly popular contender and if added along with Canberra they would create a hub of seven teams in NSW and the ACT. The derbies will make them a good choice that will be hard to look past.
(Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)
South Melbourne as always are still around, but with three teams now in Melbourne it might make things harder for them to secure a licence, especially with attendances so low right now.
West Adelaide and Fremantle have both shown signs of interest in making bids, but both will be seen as outsiders. Nonetheless they still seem to be in contention.
The Tasmanian bid have now been taken over by a new consortium of anonymous backers who are said to be even more wealthy than the previous group, which shows strong interest in the state.
With three teams now in Melbourne, this will create six Bass Strait derbies each season without cannibalising support in Victoria. Tasmania have been knocking on the door since 1980 during the Phillips Soccer League, surely they should be let in into the national league at some point.
But the most complicated expansion location is Queensland.
In Brisbane you have Brisbane Strikers, Brisbane City and Ipswich as well as hypothetical bids from Redcliffe and South Brisbane. While in the regions you have Gold Coast United as well as hypothetical bids from Sunshine Coast, Townsville and Cairns.
Brisbane Strikers dropped out before even making the long list, let alone the short one. It’s hard to see them making a comeback. Likewise, Brisbane City are still making noises but with Ballymore being permanently downgraded they’ll have to use Suncorp. If the Roar can’t afford to play there then a second team won’t be able to either.
The Ipswich bid has significant problems. They were first proposed by David Gallop as a way to boost the case for an NRL bid, which has recently gained attention.
(Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
Ipswich itself only has a population about the same size as Macarthur in Sydney, which has led to them positioning themselves as a Western Corridor bid. This then risks diluting their identity similar to Southern Expansion, while they will also have to use Suncorp while a new stadium can be built, giving them a nomadic start to life a bit like Western United. Yikes!
New bids could emerge from Redcliffe or South Brisbane, but as these are hypothetical it’s hard to include them in a list at the moment. With that being the case and Brisbane looking like a non-starter you have to look to regional Queensland.
A team in Townsville or Cairns might be an option, but it’s purely hypothetical and in the case of Cairns they would need to build a new stadium.
Sunshine Coast had a bid for a brief time, but they have since disappeared. Although their population of 350,000 is projected to increase to 500,000 by 2041, so they might be worth looking at in the future.
The only realistic option in Queensland that I can think of is the Gold Coast. When they first entered the league in 2009 they had a population of 496,000 which has since grown to 710,000, representing an increase of a whopping 43 percent.
Their average attendance in their first season was 5300, so if you increase that by 43 per cent it would now be 7600 per match. With a better fan engagement strategy, it should be possible to get to around the 10,000 mark.
Apart from the bids I’ve mentioned, there’s also one final hypothetical contender that might be an intriguing dark horse. Geelong.
Geelong already hosts Western United matches. (Photo by Graham Denholm/Getty Images)
Speaking on the Geelong Region Soccer Show podcast in May, Geelong Region Football Committee chairman Mike McKinstry said that City of Greater Geelong had set aside $50,000 in its budget for the development of a business case for a regional football facility in Geelong.
When asked what his vision was for Geelong, McKinstry said that: “The cherry on the cake if you like would be to have A-League representation for Geelong.”
While former GRFC chair Joanne Plummer was keen on a W-League side, saying that: “When you think about Geelong being synonymous with sporting success, I think that would be a terrific addition.”
On a follow-up episode Geelong councillor Kylie Grzybek said that: “We’re a bit behind the eight ball now, but I think this is an opportunity to really catch up and put Geelong on the soccer map.”
If there’s division within the ranks of Western United then that could spell trouble, should Geelong go their own separate way. When you think that they started out a Geelong-based bid, maybe they could end up relocating there.
But that’s just speculation of course. When it comes to the next two expansion teams however, the most likely locations are Canberra and Gold Coast.
We’ll just have to wait and see.
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
Auckland City are so much better then any other Semi Pro NZ sides its not funny, likely Auckland City as they are now would destroy most NPL sides
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
I know that the NPL will be split into 3 conferences next season with a finals series so we can have more football outside the South East but not have clubs go bankrupt because of travel costs but i'm also not sure how the rest of it will work through I would be Surprised if the QLD Finals Winner is not the NPL QLD repersentive in the National Finals from next year
Waz
Roar Rookie
Ive used the terms for SEQ yes, technically for Football Brisbane’s zone, the rest of QLD mirrors that although there’s some question on how they all integrate.
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
thats the SEQ Pyramid not QLD Pyramid
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
the rule in Australia is if you want people to turn up be good the GC is no exception to this the problem the GC has had is for the most part it's teams have been bad but I think the GC gets an unfair wrap just look at the Titans numbers when they have been better they have gotten 17K to games, Brisbane is a Rugby League City if Brisbane can't make 2 Rugby League Teams work Association Football has no Chance as it's by far the least popular Football Code in the City besides there is nowhere for a 2nd Brisbane team to play, Perth could barley average 10K in the season they won the Premiers Plate and Adelaide has a smaller Population then Auckland No more Sydney and Melbourne teams Western United and Marcathur have proven there is no Intrest for more teams in those cities, I think if the League expands after 14 and Assuming that 13 and 14 are Canberra and Auckland I think expanding into new markets rather then adding teams to existing markets will be the priority with the Gold Coast being right up there besides if a NSD happens will add more teams to existing markets anyway
East Coast Aces
Roar Rookie
Grass is ripped up by Rugby in winter if you can even book the stadiums. Not really sure it's greener in winter since they are all watered well in summer too. I know everyone wants purpose built boutique stadiums. But location of stadiums is so important and there's just no affordable locations for them. So choices are large shared stadiums in central locations with good public transport and bars and restaurants around them. Or head to the outer suburbs where you gotta drive ages and it's not much of an event eg Roar playing at Redcliff
East Coast Aces
Roar Rookie
It not much of a rivalry between Bris and GC. Not many people travel an hour up and down the coast to go to the derbys. But having two teams in those 3 cities will increase their crowds. There's a lot of people who never warned to Roar in Brisbane. A 2nd team would be just as well supported if not better. GC has a good population but they just don't turn up to watch sport. I don't Balme them with the beach right there, the rivers and hinterland and then the nightlife. Do you think after Canberra and Auckland no more teams or just more from Sydney and Melbourne?
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide are 1 team towns there current teams attendances prove that, Canberra is a no Brainer, Wollongong is something only Reddit Nerds care About, Auckland makes since but FA might Veto it, Tassie only works if the AFL abandon it GC is the Largest city in Australia without a team plus it's proximity to Brisbane gives Roar a Local Rival without clogging Brisbane with another team it doesn't need
Rodger King
Roar Rookie
I don't know, but those who are pushing the NSD are all very positive that those sponsors exists. maybe it is wishful thinking on their part, or maybe they have done some sounding out of potential sponsors. This next 12 months or so is going to be eye opening, somethings we see as set on concrete will disappear and other ideas that appear to be a pipe dream may come to fruition. like you I see the NSD as more of a longer term goal or even just an ambitious idea, hopefully it does happen and hopefully it brings the sport together. A unified football code like ours would rock the cynics and send a seismic rumble through other footballing codes all around Australia. I predict that if our code truly became unified, all working towards the same goal, the first signs of of the Paramount+ prediction will be seen, not at the A League level but in participation numbers with our children. When, if in 5 years time, the numbers of kids playing NRL and or AFL has not kept pace with their predicted growth patterns, that will be the first real sign of change.
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
Some AAFC clubs were in the NSL and think there owed a Place in a National League personally I think the NSD is a great long term goal but when the A-League is struggling to find sponsorship $ how is a NSD going to be able to do that?
Ferno
Guest
Thing is: we can discuss were it would be nice to have a club, but the decision comes down to who is really willing to invest. And I dont believe A-League is closing doors to serious investment proposals. They just arent willing to invest. All they are proposing is sporting partnership, but not really own the club - it is something, but does not pay the bills.
Rodger King
Roar Rookie
If you are not bothered to discuss it seriously, why comment at all.
Ferno
Guest
Yeah. And Juve Turin is behind Freo City, Manchester United and Liverpool wants CCM license, Red Bull is after something. Australia is the most attractive football market in the world, but, for some reason, league conceded license to Maccas and WU.
Micko
Roar Rookie
NZ can't do professional sport, hence why they want to join Australian comps, as it's not viable to do pro leagues in NZ.
Rodger King
Roar Rookie
So do we have P/R based purely on team performance in one given season? If clubs can not afford to play in a league should they even ask to participate?
Waz
Roar Rookie
Agreed. What I’m seeing below this, at least in QLD, is the implementation of a full pyramid. What this means is NPL, QPL (1 & 2 currently) have pro/rel and from next season BPL and the three Capital Leagues will all integrate with pro/rel (And the sand for other zones). Most interestingly then the City Leagues below Capital 3 will also have pro/rel between each of the City Leagues and up to (what is today) Capital 3. In QLD that creates a pyramid with 14 layers with pro/rel from City 7 at the bottom to NPL at the top. So yes, the question then is will NSD be integrated and if so, how and when?
Rodger King
Roar Rookie
The other point Waz, is or will be, will the NSD be a closed shop? Hence what everyone is complaining about now with the A League, will be reproduced in the NSD. P/R to the A League will be simpler than P/R to and from the NSD. As an example let us assume that a NSW club finishes bottom on the NSD. Where does this club go? The obvious answer is straight back into the NSW premier league. So does that mean that the NSW Premier League is thrown into turmoil for that coming season? Will the club promoted from their lower division still be promoted? If yes, will they play with an extra club until either another NSW club is relegated or one wins promotion? How will a club win promotion to the NSD? What if they don't have the facilities that are required for the NSD? Will the NSD have a cap on the number of teams that can represent each state ie only 6 from NSW, or 2 from WA, or 3 from Qld? Remember we aren't talking about the 20 or so clubs that have already put their hand up, but clubs who haven't put their hand up for the current NSD. Personally I see this as a very exciting time for the state federations and their member clubs. It may be such a wild ride in the coming 5 to 10 years.
Rodger King
Roar Rookie
Will, that is a broad statement, that they are one of the most well supported teams in Australia's 2nd tier. I will accept by NSW standards they are well supported, but until there is a truly 2nd Division, it is just speculation.
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
will a NSD team in Perth even be able to afford the travel, State Fed sides some of which want to be in the NSD cant even afford to travel for the FFA Cup
Rodger King
Roar Rookie
OK so are you saying, that regardless of what the future holds, leave Perth as it is? So no second division team.