As the AFL’s 2021 season comes closer to the pointy end, the chatter around coaches for next year, especially among the non-finalists, will intensify.
One of the issues that springs to mind is whether clubs should seek a favourite son – a coach who has played for the club – or seek an outsider, as in a coach who at no time played for the club.
In looking at this I have examined premiership coaches from the last 50 years, from 1970 to 2020 inclusive, in terms of whether the coach has been a player at the club in question or whether from outside.
Of the 51 premierships awarded between 1970 and 2020, 33 or close to 65 per cent have been won by clubs with coaches who have not played at the club. Eighteen or 35 per cent have been won by clubs with home-grown coaches.
Breaking down the data by decade I find the highest proportion of premierships won by home-grown coaches was eight out of ten in the 1970s.
This was on the back of premiership success by Ron Barassi (1970), John Kennedy (1971 and 1976), John Nicholls (1972), Tom Hafey (1973 and 1974), David Parkin (1978) and Alex Jesaulenko (1979). The exception was Ron Barassi in 1975 and 1977 having never played with North Melbourne.
(Getty Images)
The 1970s were the heyday of the sentimental attachment to coaches who had played with their clubs, at least among the premiership coaches.
In subsequent decades the numbers drop off considerably. The 1980s had three premierships won by home-grown coaches, the 1990s three, 2000s three and the 2010s just one.
As an additional exercise, I look at coaches who have only won single premierships. First to note is that over the last 50 years there have only been 11: John Nicholls (1972), Alex Jesaulenko (1979), Tony Jewell (1980), Robert Walls (1987), Mark Williams (2004), Paul Roos (2005), John Worsfold (2006), Chris Scott (2011), John Longmire (2012), Luke Beveridge (2016) and Adam Simpson (2018).
Of these 11 coaches, eight or 73 per cent played for the club they coached to the ultimate success. The exceptions here are Chris Scott, Adam Simpson and John Longmire. Mark Williams is categorised as playing for Port Adelaide even though it was not the AFL entity.
Two points to note. First is that overwhelmingly, successful coaches in the AFL over the last 50 years have led their sides to the holy grail on more than one occasion.
Secondly, however, of the coaches that have led their sides to only one premiership, these are strongly home grown.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
It appears that the favourite sons have not been able to build dynasties with their clubs, and that these coaches have either left or been dispensed with, with the latter suggesting that despite favoured son status clubs having been ruthless in their decision making.
I also looked at coaching performance over the last 50 years among the runners up. Of the 51 runners up between 1970 and 2020 inclusive, 39 have been coached by outsiders or 76.5 per cent, compared to 12 or 23.5 per cent of sides coached by home-grown talent.
Thus, compared to winning coaches, losing sides have been even more dominated by outsiders. Outsiders are more likely to be unsuccessful than successful, at least in terms of winning premierships.
On balance though, it appears that premiership success is more strongly correlated with being an outsider than a home-grown coach.
Arguably, outsiders bring different perspectives, experience and insights. Also they are less likely perhaps to be weighed down by expectations and baggage that accompanies a home-town hero.
If we take Collingwood as an example, since 1970, premiership success has come only from the outsiders Leigh Matthews and Mick Malthouse.
A number of home-grown legends, notably Bob Rose, Nathan Buckley, Tony Shaw, Neil Mann and Murray Weideman, were not able to deliver the holy grail.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Michael Voss is an interesting case study in the failed venture of "Beloved son's" Clearly the Fevola trade was nothing more than disaster". However I think Voss being sacked was very much a case the Lions management at the time (who weren't going really well themselves) thought they had Paul Roos over the line to take up the position. Which fell apart. Leppitsch was an absolute nightmare of appointment. Why on earth you would replace one "Favoured, pretty raw coach, for an ever more 'raw' coach was an absolute deplorable decision." When the Lions missed out on Roos, they had to double down and find the next best experienced coach. Even putting Harvey on perm basis would of been a better decision. Ultimately Leigh was always going to be a hard act to follow.
Harry Russo
Roar Rookie
I completely agree with this, I think great players of clubs should not coach teams that they played for. Great example not mentioned is Michael Voss and Justin Leppitsch coaching Brisbane, neither of them look Brisbane to finals as a coach. James Hird is another example, do you think Essendon FC would have gone along with the supplement saga if Hirdy wasn't coach, my opinion is that if it was any other coach it would have been shut down immediately. He put Essendon back a few years and they are only now showing huge potential for a shot at the premiership over the next few years.
Seymorebutts
Guest
Beveridge played more games for the Dees than he did for the Dogs, and he also played for Saint Kilda, so I dont think he really is a ''favorite son''. He had the benefit of playing under different coaches, different philosophies, strategies, fitness regimes, the whole box and dice. He is the perfect example of why you shouldn't hire a former player who hasn't spent time at another club. John Worsfold was an assistant at Carlton prior to coming to the Eagles. Sam Mitchel did a short stint at the Eagles as coach, but also a year as a player, so I think he will do as well as anyone.
Chip
Roar Guru
Thanks kick to kick, fair point. I think there are two things- identifying overall proportion of coaches inside and outside; and then within that the relative successes- I have gone for the latter for manageability of the exercise but see the connection
bagley
Roar Rookie
Hawthorn may have made a few mistakes with favorite sons in the 90s, but Parkin was coach in 78
Kick to Kick
Roar Rookie
I think there’s serious statistical fuzziness here. Comparing coaches who played for the same team they’ve coached with outside coaches is not of itself statistically meaningful without knowing the numbers of each. With very few exceptions AFL coaches are ex AFL players. But the field of possible outside coaches is still many times larger than the field of favoured sons, even in old VFL days. And today with 18 teams there are 18 times more prospective coaches from other teams than from within club ranks. What percentage of coaches have historically been insiders? I don’t know but without that figure any statistic of wins doesn’t mean much. However if 35% of premierships have been won by club insiders then that’s way in excess of the law of averages. That can mean several things. That clubs have chosen favoured sons in large and disproportionate numbers. Or that favoured sons have been disproportionately successful. It may be a bit if both, or neither . Who knows? But the only way of establishing whether inside coaches are more or less successful than outside coaches is to total all games under each category and look at the percentages.
Windrince
Roar Rookie
Hinkley and Rohan are cousins? There you go. Don't really want hinkley at the ctas - think he is no good as a coach
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Yes, I've met Ron. About 20 years ago when I worked at Flemington Racecourse. He was more than happy talk about his role at Sydney and we got talking about a particular footballing family whose name rhymes with a well known beverage. We named some cocktails after them. As I was working and had easy access the strong spirits, the great man put a tenner in my pocket and asked that I keep his vodka and diet coke well topped up.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
Have Melbourne ever recovered from the sacking of Norm Smith? I was lucky to shake the hand of Ron Barrassi in the rooms on game day about 1960 without incurring the wrath of Norm Smith. There was definite nervousness on the part of some of the Melbourne staff at the time.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Yeah, Pagan is the outlier of all attempts to make 4 coaching trees. He spent 2 spells playing under Barassi, who moved him on both times, then returned to North after Barassi left and became U19s coach under Kennedy (winning 5 flags from 9 straight GFs). Then the U19s comp was disbanded as the AFL took over from VFL and Pagan went to coach the Essendon reserves under Sheedy (who came up under Hafey) and won another flag. The only great coach who didn't have a direct influence on Pagan was Jeans. Then you have Clarko, who can lay claim to being coached by Kennedy, Pagan and Neil Balme. Not that Balme was a great coach, but he has the Midas touch as an administrator, getting Geelong, Collingwood and Richmond to win 7 GFs in the past 15 years. But Clarko's time at Port has to be acknowledged as the making of him. His part in guiding the side to 3 minor premierships and their inaugural flag was rewarded with a head coaching job at the Hawks. Mark Williams himself played under great coaches in the era when SANFL players often chose not to play long careers away from their state comp. His father was the greatest coach outside of the VFL and is his own coaching tree, having influenced many future SANFL and AFL coaches. In a sense, Clarko is the culmination of the very best coaches passing on their knowledge and praxis. We can see similar traits in Dimma, who spent two stints with Clarko as a player and then assistant coach, but also played in flags with Sheeds and Choco as well as starting out with Pagan as a kid.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Increasingly likely the Cats next coach is either a former player or at the very least from the region. With their culture of excellence and support they give their coaches, plus factors such as father-sons and excellent player nursery, the club has ensured prolonged success. When Scott is ready to move on the likelihood would be for an assistant to step up. Should be noted that Ken Hinkley won a B&F for Geelong in a GF year and his cousin is Gary Rohan.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
The Demons had the football world at their feet, but the suits ruined it all by not matching Carlton's offer to Ron Barassi and the sacking Norm Smith anyway. Didn't make finals again for 20 years and have collected 7 wooden spoons in 57 years. The VFL's biggest sliding door moment and the day loyalty died in footy.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
If one goes back further there were two full forward favourite sons who played in premierships and coached premierships for their teams. Norm Smith of Melbourne had been captain and played in 4 premierships as well as coaching Melbourne to the 1955-57, 59-60, 64 premierships. John Coleman, although never captain, played in 2 premierships and coached Essendon to their 1962 and 1965 premierships. Both men died too young.
Chip
Roar Guru
Great comments Thom
Chip
Roar Guru
Thanks great comments
Windrince
Roar Rookie
The cats' assistant coaches for the forward line and backline both played for them (enright and scarlet), so maybe there's a chance that the next cats coach will be a favourite son
sven
Roar Rookie
good info there thom, re clarko he played under kennedy & also pagan at north (& pagan played under barassi) so it gets quite complicated trying to trace who influenced who
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
I think if you are going to be technical there are a few flag coaches who pulled on the jumper for the club, but you want club captains or even flag winning captains. Bevo played at the Dogs (mostly in the twos), but think ten years ago when Voss, Hird, Buckley and co were jostling to make history for their club. Sad stories to end great partnerships.
Christo the Daddyo
Roar Rookie
Does Pail Roos count as a Swans “favourite son”? It was certainly fan (and player) pressure that got him the gig over Wallace.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
I enjoyed reading this because I think you've encapsulated the period of transition between amateur football and the modern day spectacle. As Chuck points out, captain-coaches have gone out of the game and this reduced the incidence of "favourite sons" winning flags. I have been researching the four great coaching trees of Barassi, Kennedy, Jeans and Hafey, which encapsulates the end of the VFL era and their proteges who gave us the brand of AFL footy we see today. This is where the gold is in regards to successful coaches, not where they played but who they played and were assistant coaches under. Tom Hafey coached Tony Jewell, Mick Malthouse and Kevin Sheedy, yet only one of them coached Richmond to a flag and that was before the AFL era. Interestingly, Sheedy coached Damian Hardwick, who has delivered 3 flags, so maybe Essendon and Port owed them one. Hawthorn's most recent drought in the nineties and noughties saw 3 favourite sons return the Glenferrie for no flags, then one of Mark Williams' acolytes came over from Port and delivered 4 flags. Again Hafey to Sheedy to Williams to Clarkson, but Choco has his own coaching legend father and played under half a dozen coaches, yet his coaching apprenticeship was under Sheeds and he has mentored the two best coaches of the last decade. I think the biggest thing preventing a club's favourite son from achieving flag success is the fact that there are now 18 teams in the comp compared to 12 in the VFL era. The chances of any coach winning even one flag has diminished so much that most players and coaches finish up without flag success. Compounding this has been the success of Interstate teams over the journey - Adelaide 2 flags, Brisbane 3 flags, Port 1 flag, West Coast 4 flags, Sydney 2 flags - which for the most part haven't had much opportunity to bring in former players as coach. The Lions did it twice without success, while arguable 3 of these flags were won by favourite sons (Roos is a Fitzroy favourite son and Choco was a Port Magpies player). Looking at the current table, only Bevo has a realistic chance of coaching another premiership at the the club he played for, but even he would tell you he wasn't a favourite son. His grandfather played in a flag for Collingwood! It could be a long time before we see another club captain go on to coach a flag.