If anyone is actually interested in talking about the game on the field this week, I have had a look at New Zealand’s progress after Bledisloe 2: Return to Eden, and I really hope that the Monday video review was far harsher than a record points-scored column would perhaps indicate was warranted.
Let’s begin with the good.
New Zealand’s locking partnership has looked somewhat frail in the last couple of seasons. Brodie Retallick’s absence exposed some depth issues and Sam Whitelock’s legs were beginning to show their age. But no, the band is firmly back together and reminding us why they have dominated as a pair for so long.
Retallick was short of both a gallop and timing coming back from Japan, but every week he is looking more like his former self. His hard mirroring at lineout time has caused his opposition all sorts of problems. Which other international lock runs an 80-metre support line to score under the post?
Captaincy agrees with Whitelock, who’s back to his physical best – hard at the rucks, rock-solid at the set piece and tough at the gain line. Bringing on one of the promising younger locks behind Scott Barrett is now a real priority.
I am seriously really liking 9-10-12 now.
The All Blacks have looked a little lost for a midfield combination, but the elevation of David Havili is on the edge of solving all. He is not a big man in the Ma’a Nonu or Damian de Allende style, but Australia and Fiji have both had all sorts of problems keeping him off the gain line.
That Crusader parentship with Richie Mo’unga, which came into being almost by accident, looks like it could be a long-term winner for the All Blacks. His all-round technique is first class, and his ability to present the ball cleanly and quickly after contact, a much-overlooked skill, reminds me of Ben Smith and allows New Zealand to run a type of block play in front of the gain line, which and has consistently provided quick go-forward pill.
Add another booming boot in the backline in the era of 50/22, a really good decision-making framework, and a proven ability to step into first receiver and playmaker, and there is some real upside here.
But now let’s consider the not so good: the back three, in particular the fullback.
The focus of this season has to be South Africa. It’s no secret how South Africa are going to play – 46 kicks against Argentina in Game 1 merely reconfirms this – so ball security is going to be key. There’s no point having the skills to run it back if you can’t catch it in the first place.
Damian McKenzie turned the ball over three times in the opening ten minutes of Bledisloe 2 again. I was very impressed with how direct Jordie Barrett was in his 25 minutes on the field, and I can’t help but think that having someone who is 193 centimetres tall and of no material drop in quality over the incumbent can’t be a bad thing with balls raining down out of the sky, not only for catching but also for the robustness of taking the chasing tackle that follows.
I have seen nothing from DMac of late that screams quality combinations in the back three.
Damian McKenzie (Photo by Dianne Manson/Getty Images)
The loose forward conundrum continues. It’s better, but it’s still not good.
No doubt the second half was the best effort in black we have seen from Akira Ioane, and Dalton Papalii will never be criticised for his effort, as his 21-3 tackle count confirms, but the scoreline hides that as a combination this is simply not working.
I posted at halftime that Bledisloe 2 may have been the most disconnected effort from an All Black loose trio in a first half for some time, and on review I saw nothing to change my opinion.
Regular readers will be aware of my long-held belief that you cannot play more than one of Ioane, Ardie Savea and Hoskins Sotutu in the same trio because the lack of work rate from all is simply a luxury in the trade-off for attacking ability and it puts too much pressure defensively on the rest of the side. It is a balance that will not stand up to examinations greater than Australia.
While the second half, for the second week in a row, saw a better structure and focus from the trio, as six solid ball carriers tackle in the first four minutes attested, the fact remains that we are currently falling well short of the standards required for an All Blacks trio.
Let’s test this against the Murray Mexted standard measures, as derived from a Devlin Radio Show podcast of 8 August, which is worth a listen.
Regain
The All Blacks loose forward trio has not won a single turnover on the ground in three Tests now, and neither have they had a clean steal nor a forced penalty.
Given our traditional focus and the fact that this is a side that relies heavily on turnover ball and turnover penalties as a primary source of try-scoring, this is a serious issue, particularly as Savea and Papalii both had such good turnover records in Super rugby.
We cannot rely on the better sides being as generous with errors as Australia has been in the last two games.
Retain
Not winning your own turnovers does correlate with losing your own ball to others for the same reason, not playing the loose trio together, close enough to the ball. Dalton Papalii adds a high ruck attendance to his tackle count but, again, he has often been alone in this key endeavour. Last week Ioane and Papalii combined for four turnovers conceded also, so it’s representing quite a negative net outcome picture.
Repel
Often the run metres of the loose forward trio is the difference in winning matches, and we are now conceding metres around the ruck with way too much ease.
I wrote after Bledisloe 1 that there was a real chance to go at the edges of the All Blacks pack in that first 40 minutes, but with relative inexperience at Nos. 9 and 10 they were not going to spot it. Nic White and James O’Connor would have been onto it a lot quicker.
Well, the Aussie analyst team were onto it by Bledisloe 2, and New Zealand paid the price. The Wallabies loose trio ran for over 100 metres and were aided by a further 40 from Tate McDermott. The All Blacks trio was loose around the ruck in Bledisloe 1 and poor there again in Bledisloe 2, and this time it cost in metres and the opening try to Australia – the near channels at the ruck had failed three times before the score.
From Jerome Kaino establishing himself in the No. 6 shirt to lifting the World Cup 35 games later, that side conceded 100 loose forward run metres just once – in a big win over Ireland in Dublin when Jamie Heaslip had one out of the box.
Compare the following two clips, one of how Sam Cane and Shannon Frizell set up and work together close to the ruck, the other of what we have seen near the ruck from our current selections, especially where Akira Ioane stations himself on the opening side and doesn’t close in tight to the open side of the ruck when required.
Cane and Frizell
Andrew Kellaway’s try, Bledisloe 2
The Frizell-Cane partnership succeeded last year because they work hard together. You could have thrown a blanket over them for the first three games of the Australia series last year and there would still have been a real understanding in the combination of where each other needed to be based on where their partner was. Maybe we’ll get to see them both back together before the year ends.
While there are some signs of increasing cohesion between the current trio, in particular in attack, it does not look like a natural fit on either side of the ball and in particular close to the ruck defensively.
One of either Savea or Ioane has to go before the Rugby Championship restarts. And remember: we will get Sam Cane back before the European legs at the end of the year. If Ioane can keep up the work rate we saw in the second half of Bledisloe 2 and maintain his impact, I expect he will retain his spot and consign Ardie either to the pine or out of the 23 altogether, with the high impact Luke Jacobson the required selection at No. 8.
When I watch the current loose forward trio together I get the same pit-of-stomach feeling I had in the last days of the Steve Hansen era – that the coach, despite all the evidence to the contrary, thinks he can outrun and outscore the opposition without having to do the hard yards first. With contracts up for renewal before the end of the year, I would be ditching this thinking sharpish.
Old Bugger
Roar Rookie
Well, no arguments from me HL.....except, one contract has now been confirmed before any outrunning or outscoring, has occurred. An excellent piece, as always.
Ed
Guest
Highlander and a few other posters here won't be happy: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/exclusive-ian-foster-signs-new-deal-with-all-blacks-after-tense-standoff/2DZTFDFE7IGRBAE7KZTQLYNW5U/
Tony
Roar Rookie
Agree with you on most points. Currently we have 4 smallish backs in Smith, Mo'unga, Reece and McKenzie. Neither of our midfielders are exactly big blokes like Allende. Savea is light for an 8. We will be outmuscled by the Boks. Smith and Mo'unga are indispensable. Havili looks a keep, ALB likewise unless perhaps Goodhue when fit. BBarrett too good to be on the bench and should replace McKenzie. JBarrett to come off the bench. Reiko and Jordan on the wings. Not sure why SBarrett is not given another go at 6, but Akira is playing himself in, as is Papalii. Savea best off the bench, Jacobson starting.
Ruckit
Roar Rookie
Yes agree, the RWC devalues tests between the years. Personally, I like to see more importance placed on every test rather than them being throw aways for the sake of “development” for the half dozen or so games at RWC. Of course there will be games where less experienced or development players are bought in but those risks are usually calculated..
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Jordie has mongrel, a slightly mean attitude.
Jimmy Jones
Roar Rookie
Reiko and Sevu worry me in defence. They are both prone to rushing out of the line. The lack of a midfield general in defence is problematic, perhaps this a role Havili will grow into
Gregory
Guest
Precisely the reason why Foster have to go.We definitely need bulk at 15 . McKenzie too small he's a turnover liability. Springboks will kick to him all game. Saves also have to go.another penalty liability at breakdown. One thing I've noticed is that the springbok thinktank underestimate the allblacks scrum. I hope allblacks smash them up front because they(Springboks) think they will bully any team up front because of lions and Argentina wins
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
We all, well not all but some of us have a Suzy Poison in the background....just don't eat the seafood..
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
Jackcrash that's a noble goal.. But the reality of the World we live in is that winners really do take all..oh and it's not just a South African or England thingy. I wish we were so special.
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
Actually I should as a Bok fan vehemently disagree as we have massively benefitted from Rugby World Cups.. But I in fact don’t.. Yes the WC has devalued Tests, tours etc.. We have an Eddie Jones willing to forfeit a 6N to build for 2 years time.. A Rassie happy to forfeit a RC with bigger things in frame. I attended a talk ( paid for it by the way) of Jake White in 2005 when he emphatically said the only thing that now matters is a World Cup.. Nobody remembers or cares who won what in between. His very words.. Yet it’s just one single tournament where historically the best team there often doesn’t win.. It’s crazy.
Harry Jones
Expert
The conundrum seems to have its origin in how good Ardie is and so he gets selected as an "8" when he's really not an 8. Then the flow chart gets stuck. So, I would pick him as player 20 or 21. Put a real badger-bully-brain trio on the pitch.
Kabous
Roar Rookie
Is it social media and the free for all vitriol that has permanently poisoned the well of goodwill or has the Corona virus simply exposed the nationalist fault lines that were always there One of the problems of social media is there is no more stopping the opinion of an immature and inexperienced participant in an adult conversation. Ground rules of graciousness and respect are not necessary as in a reallife meeting where such behaviour would get you nowhere fast. A pimpled faced know-it-all hammering away at his keyboard in his mommas basement has equal rights in a conversation with salted proffesionals. Imagine kids having an equal say in family matters as the parents. When it is allowed, we have a generation that demands it gets pandered in every way where respect is a obscenity and to shout and have is everything. No wonder the world is so PC these days...
Highlander
Roar Guru
I think your last sentence is the key one Sam, esp back three in both forwards and backs Let’s hope Tupaea kicks on quickly too, some player that kid
Sam Taulelei
Roar Guru
Havili is still developing at this level but his combination together with Smith & Mo’unga is worth continuing. Not sold on Havili and Lienert-Brown as a midfield combination, they’re very similar in physique and style. Goodhue or Ennor are better match with Havili, Lienert-Brown and Rieko are better partners to a direct inside runner like Quinn Tupaea. DMac still appeals to me as a 10 more than a fullback, believed Jordie was the form fullback in SR Aotearoa and was surprised he wasn’t first choice in early tests. What to do with Ardie Savea? The injury to Cane presented an opportunity for Ardie to specialise in his preferred position for the All Blacks, but his own injury curtailed that plan so we now have a forced marriage of three talented players who are missing the glue to keep them together. I’d bench Ardie and use him as your perfect impact player and loose forward cover. Switch Akira and Jacobson round, so you can utilise Akira’s strengths in the wider channels, Jacobson and Papali’i complement each other. Quite a lot of noise around Tom Robinson, but I wonder if Foster is already looking at a squad member to fill that lock/6 spot in Tupou Va’ai who hasn’t been sighted in black this year. Despite the growing depth of talent available to Foster, we’re still no closer to knowing what is his no.1 side.
winston
Roar Rookie
You seem to have made your mind up about Akira but he's improved with every game he's played in black and is by far our best option at 6. Frizell will need to work hard and have a bit of luck to get his jumper back. Akira is showing consistency at 6. The back row is different than ones past and very different from our best ever in Kaino, Read and McCaw but as SBW put it they are as fast as thier outsides and as strong as their insides. Its something we really haven't had before so I'm keen to see how they shape up against the Boks. If they do the basics and provide x factor it provides a massive point of difference. Though I do prefer Savea at 7 DMac had bad start but did improve. The thing he does really well is being an effective second receiver in the dual playmaker plan which seems to be still a big part of the ABs game-plan. Beauden is really the only player who can fulfil that role. It wouldn't surprise me though to see Jordie start against the Boks because we know what they are going to with their kicks but having an effective second play maker will be a big part of breaking that defence down.
Ex force fan
Guest
When any organisation’s core values start to degrade you can always point at the leadership that failed to live the values of the organisation. These values are not only for those that play the game on the field but also for those that play the game off the field. Just like the Code of Conduct, World Rugby and especially Tier 1 nations have played lip service to the values of Teamwork, Respect, Enjoyment, Discipline and Sportsmanship the values that makes the game special for those that enjoy the environment and culture that the game creates. The Erasmus experiment forced World Rugby to take a stance against public criticism of referees (however it didn’t prevent Argentina’s coach to criticise the referee after the game), NZRU/RA/SANZAAR behaviour is another event where World Rugby should be concerned about how their values are undermined by those selected in leadership positions. Isn’t it time for World Rugby to take their values seriously and not turn a blind eye to faul play by officials off the field. The Perth gate scandal followed by rants from Andy, Dave and Mark warrants an investigation by World Rugby and those that have not uphold the values of the organisation should be sanctioned.
Lara
Guest
Horses for courses. The ABs team against the Wallabies worked, but could be easily be improved upon. That team would fail against the Boks, but there is enough in the current squad, if Foster is smart enough to use it n actually select it , to combat the Bok game . The player that should worry the ABs supporters is the selection of DMac n Foster thinks he has got it right……if he selects him against the Bok, then he is playing Russian roulette with a fully loaded gun. A must selection is Retallick . When he is ready n fit, the ABs can actually step up a notch….the signs were there in game 2.
Ex force fan
Guest
Just as the All Blacks prepares to play the Boks, the Boks are preparing to play the All Blacks...The difference for me is that the Boks are prioritising preparing for the heavier European rugby fields as the World Cup will be played in France in 2023. With many of the established Bok players playing in European conditions I don’t expect to see a change in the Boks style of play even if the loose against the All Blacks. Unfortunately the Rugby Championship are now a development competition for the RWC.
Carlin
Roar Rookie
Would love to see Tom Robinson get the call up for the All Blacks one day. He is the best lineout blindside in NZ and has a massive motor. Plus he’s a good bloke. My only concern is he has a horror run of injuries. Hopefully he can get have one season with no long term injuries or head knocks.
Carlin
Roar Rookie
I didn’t realise Savea had been tackling at such a low percentage. I am going to pay more attention to his defensive work from here.