For the fourth time since 2012 the Cats have lost a preliminary final and another promising home-and-away season has fallen flat in the finals.
For such a talented list, it’s hard to believe that Geelong have only made one grand final in the last ten seasons, however it’s become somewhat of a groundhog day scenario for the Cats.
More often than not they would finish in the top four, build up their hopes just to lose the qualifying final, follow it up the next week with a convincing win in the semi-final only to fall short in the preliminary final. Well, if you can call losing by 83 points short.
So where to now for Geelong?
The age demographic of their list would indicate that they’re about to fall off a cliff and most likely require a rebuild, which considering their long-term sustained period of success (home-and-away that is) you’d think a rebuild is long overdue.
That being said, it’s not crazy to say that Geelong have a genuine chance of being a contender next season.
With the forward combination of Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron, a solid defence and a midfield full of All Australian potential players, the Cats can still have premiership aspirations for 2022.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
However, as we all know too well, Albert Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
Considering the Cats have done the same thing for the past ten years and outside of one grand final appearance, they have seen the same results, that means it’s time for a change.
Obviously they won’t overhaul their whole playing list in one off season, which means the change they need to make is in the head coaching role.
Credit to Chris Scott, he has been a phenomenal coach for over a decade, something that few can say.
However there is no denying just how poor his finals record has been outside of his 2011 premiership.
From 2012 onwards, Scott’s finals record is 6-13 with only one of those wins being a qualifying final (2016) and one being a preliminary final (2020).
While it’s undeniable that Scott’s home-and-away record is head and shoulders above his fellow coaches, he hasn’t been able to win when it matters, leaving the Cats little but no choice but to part ways.
The thing is, having Chris Scott as their coach is safe. They’re more likely than not to make finals each year with him. The team already knows the system he installs and most importantly they know it works to a degree.
So with that being said, should the Cats leave their safety zone and take a risk in sacking a coach with such a good record?
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Well an example in recent history comes to mind where a team did take the risk is the NBA franchise the Toronto Raptors.
In 2018 the Raptors finished first in the east and with a weakened conference they looked set to at least make it past the second round at a minimum.
Instead, Lebron James singlehandedly swept the Raptors and left them in a fairly similar position that Geelong are in now.
Being at a cross road, the Raptors made the bold decision to fire their head coach Dwane Casey, who was actually named coach of the year for the season.
The next season they won their first NBA championship and the narrative of them being playoff chokers quickly went away.
While it must be noted that the Raptors did trade for Kawhi Leonard, someone who may be a top 20 player of all time when all is said and done, there’s no doubt that the coaching change also made a dramatic difference.
So it’s time for the Cats to roll the dice, bring in a new coach and have one final run at ultimate glory before their inevitable rebuild.
If not, then we know what to expect from Scott and the Cats next year and unfortunately for Cats fans it’s not a flag.
dargerovitch
Roar Rookie
Do you know what contracts those over 30 players have? Might not be so easy to off -load the oldies . Smith went to Geelong for two reasons: Hawthorn gives 30 year olds no more than one year* and the Cats gave him two. The second reason was he wanted him and his young family to live closer to surf beaches. ( * Shaun Burgoyne got an initial three year contract at Hawthorn and one year contracts for the next seven years , must be some kind of record.)
Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
Why would he trade down to the mythical MCC/G pampered AFL pets? Where's the challenge? I heard he might buy a surf board.
Diesel-747
Roar Rookie
It was time up 4 yrs ago. Move him on. But most likely he will move himself on for more cash& prestige @a big 4 Melbourne club. Watch this space.
Lukey Miller
Guest
If Geelong were to let Scott go then Carlton would like to be in a position to take advantage. It is very likely that the Cats will keep Scott and that Carlton will continue to flail about aimlessly in search of their new coach. I could not imagine people like Scott or Brian Cook would seriously consider going to a basket case like the Blues.
Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
Cats will be okay.
Clear as mud
Guest
last year in the GF the minute Richmond stopped bombing it to Stewart, the Cats were done. Dusty was best but to ignore the implosion - again - of half the Cat team under pressure that night.... well, many of the same players were at it again on Friday. (also the end of the Rd 23 game, a shambles, a premiership potentially blown there and then.) very happy if Geelong decide no change necessary.
Clear as mud
Guest
they blew the season RD 23 at the Cattery. finals record really 6:14. It's time...
Aransan
Roar Rookie
I think you would be surprised. Gold Coast could do with a couple. There have been a few late career players who have been successes at other clubs, Luke Hodge for one. The currency won’t be huge but I believe they have zero value staying where they are. Players like Hawkins and Selwood of course should remain as one club players.
Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
More likely than most
Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
But it keeps us in contention for decades at a time. We have been beaten in big games by some extraordinary teams in great club culture purple patches as you point out. You disrespect the clubs you mention when you say their opposition was not producing a competitive style. You can bet they weren't feeling that way when they ran out on the ground. I like us being part of the action come September. Who wouldn't ?..... don't answer that .... I don't want to know. To say that the chaos game is perfect is to deny the short lived glamour periods of the teams you mention. All to do with club chemistry and timing. They get all excited about how good they are and then fall down the bottom again. The cats have persisted. Probably since 2004 with a couple of glitches. That's a heck of a lot of happy footy winning feeling mondays. In the Chris Scott era maybe we are the bridesmaids so far but we are in the wedding party and not just watching from the cheap seats.
Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
Some games look more mistake riddled than others. I would have to say that on the basis of comparisons over an extended period and making a balanced view in the face of all the available evidence collected to do with the rate of mistakes on a sliding scale and encompassing the of successful outcomes resulting from intended decisions and skill executions of the players involved in the measured contests the Bulldogs mistake ration was more toward the lower end of such mistake data rather than toward the upper end where mistakes are constant and the spectacle becomes farcical as the elite struggle to perform to any leve near enough for pro sport.
Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
more hate mail over reaction rewriting history odious comparisons (is there any other kind?) intended to hurt rather than help why would anyone listen to this? i know you care for the cats or you wouldn't bother at all you just have a funny way of showing it
Opps74
Roar Rookie
Geelong are kidding themselves if they feel this list can win them another flag...the powers to be have no other choice than to back their recruitment strategy...Scott will be moved on with dad's army into the sunset at the end of 2022. They looked slow and Scott I think goes too defensive...Buckley showed what happens to defensive minded coaches...Dee's and Bulldogs prepared to attack knowing the risk but also the reward. Both attacked and demolished cats and power...clarko moved on with 16 years and 4 flags...Scott 11 years and one flag...good luck for 2022
Arman
Guest
I wish I bookmarked the last 10 years of exactly the same end-of-season posts of Geelong doomsayers. Could even go back to the first five games of 2007 where the Cats were written off after losing to the Kangaroos as having no genuine stars and were eons off a flag. Ahem. History shows Geelong don't bottom out. They've never finished below 13th in over 160 years of football. They've never had top draft picks through bottoming out, but have found a way to still push for success through trade and skillful development of roughies. But keep on posting about the slide! It is inevitable Geelong will fall out of the 8 one year. You'll eventually get it right! Anyway on topic - if Geelong were to part ways with Chris Scott, who do you propose replaces him? I don't buy that you need to bottom out or clear out the coach's office to win a flag. You need a lot to go right. Coaches are often unfairly victimised for a team's lack of success.. Hardwick almost lost his job before going on a premiership run with Richmond... likewise Bomber Thomson for the Cats. In my mind Chris Scott has worked wonders with the overrated Cats list and has given it a real crack... in most cases they've gotten agonisingly close. If it wasn't for the pure individual brilliance of Dustin Martin last year he would have had another flag to his name with this game style. This finals series was not close... but anyone who had actually been watching the last 6 weeks of the Cats games would know their backline got cruelled with injuries which totally screwed up the core of their plan... their backline was key to their success against all the finalists. In all three finals the intercept mark and scores driven from the backline was gone due to key injuries. They were never going to be a realistic shot relying on their midfield talent.
Peter
Guest
History says your game plan doesn't stack up when the pressure is on. The first thing that fails under pressure is execution, not effort. Hence, a game plan based on effort rather than execution is less likely to fail. Hawthorn then Richmond and now Melbourne have all put Geelong to the sword in finals for this very reason. Only a fool would deny it and the delusional endorse it.
Peter
Guest
Next year any of 18 could win.......but unlike some, you're not likely to.
1DER
Guest
Who of the 19 players 28 years and over as at start of next season have trade currency that Geelong would let go?
Aransan
Roar Rookie
Would Geelong do better to trade out some of their older players for 2021 and 2022 second and third round draft picks? The trick then would be to trade some of these picks into the first round. I like Chris Scott but he might do better elsewhere — Carlton?
pablocruz
Roar Rookie
Bulldogs made plenty of mistakes! The difference is they're not scared to make them. Geelong are.
1DER
Guest
Definitely will be having a crack next year. The bulk of the veteran brigade is contracted until at least 2022. The unfortunate position is that they have not pumped games into players that may be up to leaving or traded coming out of contract in 2021. Thus their return value for Geelong may be greatly unders for Constable (12 games), Close (30), Narkle (30) and Simpson (19.) Henderson, Rohan, and Stanley would most likely be offered 1 year contracts? Can only see Higgins and Jenkins from the aged brigade retiring.