So, this is it. One last weekend of the rugby year, and what are the chances of us all being happy this time next week? Wouldn’t that be nice?!
But collectively, there’s a bit of work to do. Argentina and South Africa will be wanting to maintain their current vein of form, New Zealand suddenly need to save a bit of face (and Ian Foster’s bacon, if some opinions are to be believed), and Australia head into their last game potentially the most desperate they have been all year.
Obviously, we’ve got some thoughts on what needs to happen and one last week to say it all in advance, before joining the rest of the rugby world as Hindsight Harrys next week.
Oh, and the Panel’s not quite done yet. We’ll be back for one last run next week, and we’re going to name names…
Question 1: All our teams have been up and down through the Autumn Nations Series, but now have one last chance to finish the 2021 on a high. How does your team get it done it this weekend?
Harry
South Africa is England’s bogey team. Even when the Red Rose is blooming brightest, it tends to get plucked by the hungry Boks.
Anyone can look at the record (of last ten, last 20, all-time), so all I’ll say is, there’s a familiar script, an archetypal rhythm. So, the boys need to follow that pattern.
The coaches need to select the right players: Cobus Reinach at 9, a wing at right wing, and a 6-2 bench. But then it’s a matter of prevailing in the scrum, the lineout, the tackle, and the chase.
It’s bloody England! The boys will pitch up.
There’s plenty to play for: having retaken the number one ranking – South Africa is historically the clear second team in holding that top rank, so every day it’s held, the case for the top rivalry gets stronger – Jacques Nienaber and his jolly, naughty water boy rise in Saffa legend; but also, there’s the “2021 champion” to play for.
(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)
On first blush, NZ have that, with only two losses to SA’s four, but the scales have shifted. If SA spanks England cheeky arse, and the All Blacks stumble in Paris, well then, I’d say South Africa won 2021:
•A Lions series win over Warren Gatland
•1-1 head to head with NZ
•Two stinkers by NZ (on EOYT) one by SA (the second versus Australia)
•World ranking
•Better depth in the pack; thus, sustainability for next year and 2023.
Geoff
Both the All Blacks and Wallabies get it done this week by doing what they didn’t do last week.
You don’t win Test rugby against Tier one nations by conceding 70 per cent of possession. The All Blacks simply have to be more accurate with the ball in hand, show some of the patience and discipline that Ireland showed, not to push the pass and recycle instead.
And they need to put more pressure on the French ball and bother them in a way that they weren’t able to ruffle the Irish.
The Wallabies have to find a way to revert to the controlled rugby that served them so well in the Rugby Championships. Execution at set piece. Clinical, direct attack. Intense, but disciplined defence.
A difficult ask without some leading players, but it’s time for some senior, experienced players to step out of Michael Hooper’s shadow.
Brett
It’s one the biggest press conference cliches from a player or coach, and almost always contrary to reality – because team truly pays no attention at all to the opposition? – but the Wallabies really do just need to worry about themselves and not Wales this weekend!
And they need to forget about the last couple of weeks and just play like this is the first game of the season. No baggage into the game, no recent history, no worrying about (or sweating on) Welsh injuries; just run out there, play the game that best fits the players selected and do the little things right.
Once they’re into the game, they’ll need to see chances coming and take them as soon as they’re offered. Taking penalties regularly was the way they stayed in the games against England way longer than their performance perhaps should have allowed, so that’s one thing, but they need to remember the right time to run at Wales and the right time to kick over their heads and turn them around, too.
The Wallabies have played some excellent rugby in 2021, that’s one thing they do need to remember. Do the little things well, take the chances as they come, and be relentless.
Nobes
Oh Dear, after the Ireland demonstration this weekend in front of the All Blacks I think that Los Pumas’ chances of beating the men in green are more and more distant. The Pumas have beaten the Irish a couple of times in World Cups but never in Ireland.
How much more toned can one get after clearly defeating the multiple world champions?
The Pumas showed an improvement against a weak Italian team, but I think they would need much more time to work to have a chance in this game and it is something that they will not have.
Digger
More often than not, the All Blacks tend to bounce back from a poor performance strongly and Paris appeals as a good place to do so where they have a very solid record.
A far more concerted effort will be needed up front, particularly the offensive breakdown and I suspect they will get the job done.
I am very much hoping we all get to see an Aaron Smith-Antoine Dupont match-up at halfback, that will be a cracker.
Antoine Dupont (Photo By Brendan Moran/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
Question 2: What’s the one thing you want to see your team do well to close out the rugby year?
Harry
At Twickers, I’m looking for better execution in their red zone, longer exits out of our own, 30 or more points scored against the cheeky chariot, less than two tries conceded, and utter scrum dominance to cause Kyle Sinckler to turn into a puddle of indignation.
Oh, and Eddie Jones to talk about Naomi Osaka in a post-defeat rant.
Geoff
Without being glib, I just want to see both teams win. Lord knows both coaches need it, just to be able to go into summer with a degree of surety that, even though they’ve dropped games and put in some disappointing performances, things aren’t anywhere near as bad as what some of the doomsayers are suggesting.
Despite the disappointment of last week, and the question marks around the All Blacks sticking too doggedly to a style of game that has been figured out, a win against a very good French side would cap off a more than reasonable year.
The Wallabies are undermanned, so the asterisk is already out, but a win against Wales would be just the shot of confidence the playing group needs, heading into summer. And reward too for a fan-base that is due a change of fortune.
Brett
I just want to see the Wallabies play with smarts.
No silly penalties, no dumb options, no lazy shortcuts; play a smart game that controls the situation and makes Wales play to them, not the other way around.
There’s been some truly puzzling rugby played at times since they landed in the UK, and they just need to show that still know what good, well-executed rugby looks like. And they know they can play it, because they have played it this year. Not that long ago, in fact.
Play for pride, play for each other, play for themselves, play for whatever. Just play like it means something.
Nobes
I would like Los Pumas to be competitive and to be able to keep the result within reach.
It would be important for them to show greater cohesion in attack, a good set piece, and a good grade in discipline.
To end the year that has not been good with a sign of hope for a brighter future, would be enough for me.
Digger
Easy.
Dominate the breakdown, absolutely decimate their opposition in this facet, particularly on our ball.
OVER TO YOU: How does your team finish 2021 on a high?
And what’s the one thing you want to see from your team in the last game of the year?
piru
Roar Rookie
Is it just extortion then?
Malotru
Roar Rookie
Bookies have SA favourite, New Zealand favourite and Wales favourite Tooly.
WEST
Roar Guru
French rugby is really hitting its straps, despite losing a few… But they’ve beaten the dreaded Irish team recently and Wales.. But can lose to Scotland? So these guys on the day can punish anyone! This clash was all everyone was talking about a few weeks ago. However, I’m not buying into this game is where we lay down a marker for the Rugby World Cup, thats kind of ridiculous! The RWC is still two years away, as most will know.. A lot can happen in two years! So win or lose it won’t reflect what happens in two years time. The ABs actually have a great record in France, The All Blacks have won 14 straight tests against France, and haven’t lost to Les Bleus at all since 2009, in their home country since 2000 and in the French capital since 1973. So that’s something positive.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
It helps that they'll be up against a 21 year old loosehead with a handful of Premiership games, and a 23 year old hooker who's scored more tries for England (against USA and Canada in the Summer) than he's started Prem games. :sick:
Rusty
Roar Guru
Will depend how the coin lands on how the french play but they have probably picked their best lineup for the match with the Romain and Dupont axis back in place and a very strong centre pairing of Fickou and Danty. Lot of class in this lineup and should be a tasty game! France: 15 Melvyn Jaminet, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Jonathan Danty, 11 Gabin Villiere; 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Antoine Dupont (captain); 8 Gregory Alldrit, 7 Anthony Jelonch, 6 Francois Cros; 5 Paul Willemse, 4 Cameron Woki; 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 1 Cyril Baille Replacements: 16 Gaetan Barlot, 17 Jean-Baptise Gros, 18 Demba Bamba, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Thibaud Flament, 21 Dylan Cretin, 22 Maxime Lucu, 23 Matthieu Jalibert
Rusty
Roar Guru
Scratch that - French side looks pretty handy France: 15 Melvyn Jaminet, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Jonathan Danty, 11 Gabin Villiere; 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Antoine Dupont (captain); 8 Gregory Alldrit, 7 Anthony Jelonch, 6 Francois Cros; 5 Paul Willemse, 4 Cameron Woki; 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 1 Cyril Baille Replacements: 16 Gaetan Barlot, 17 Jean-Baptise Gros, 18 Demba Bamba, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Thibaud Flament, 21 Dylan Cretin, 22 Maxime Lucu, 23 Matthieu Jalibert
biltong
Guest
The referee for Australia vs England was Jaco Peyper?
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Six inches. The measurement with highest variance.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
I just want the word/term clinical be banished to the same bucket where learnings lies. And for the Pumas? No YCs! For Stade de France? No rain. For Twickers? Bludgeon yourselves into oblivion.
biltong
Guest
It is very true that he is a catalyst for many of our exhilarating scores Brett, they have been few and far between this season.
biltong
Guest
I would be concerned about their mental resilience for the test Brett, the bubbles, the long season away from home, maybe this is the straw that breaks the camel's back. It would say something about their mentality if they are up for this match though.
biltong
Guest
Soooo difficult to measure intent, eh Brett? :silly:
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Mate it’s not the one loss, Foster had a 50% record in his first year, this his second year, he’s had 2 losses so far against the first two top 5 ranked sides in the world he’s come up against. Of course he coached the AB’s to manage to turn back the challenges of Tonga (twice), Fiji, USA, Italy, a severely understrength Australia, Argentina and Wales. That’s good huh? But to be honest Brett, I’m less concerned about the loss to the Boks and Ireland but looking ahead I just feel that he will weaken the All Blacks further. He managed to do that over eight years with the Chiefs. I ask again, taking out the current AB’s who have become less effective since 2016, what competition has he ever coached to win. The Chiefs trophy cupboard was bare for all the years he was in charge. The best way to have Foster coach a good team, is to give him ‘a great’ team to start with. He’ll drag their level down, just give him time. NZRU appointed a guy who had won nothing of note the highest coaching job in the country. Not only did they appoint him as Head Coach, they extended his appointment until after the 2023 RWC cycle. They played the charade of inviting applications to the world, to find the next head coach of the All Blacks, and the best that could come up with was Ian Foster as the “best available” … Brett, not sure that’s an over reaction, I think there are plenty who think similarly. I assure you mate it’s really not about the loss of the one game, it’s also not the first rant I’ve had over what I think was a ridiculous appointment. I’ve been advocating this since his appointment for 2 years at the end of 2019 before he had lost any games. At the end of the day, I suppose it’s the NZRU I should be more upset with :silly:
Rusty
Roar Guru
France..hmmm. suspect we will see more Dr Jekyll than Mr Hyde this weekend and the ABs will close out the year as expected
WEST
Roar Guru
It was puzzling why Christie wasn’t used against Ireland. I’d like to see Aaron Smith and Christie have a run this week. I’ll expect Sam Cane to play most of the 80 this week too. After I’ve looked at it again.. The ABs did absorb a lot of pressure.. And had the lead at the half despite the lack of territory and possession. That is pretty remarkable, they actually weren’t that far off winning the thing, had that one pass been more accurate. Then It would of been a great escape story! So it’s not all doom and gloom.. there’s still a few positives, but it also highlights a few areas that need fixing. Ruck work is definitely one, we’re not cleaning our rucks effectively. That’s just better support structure. Setting ourselves in our phases, keeping it simple. Instead of living off the counter attacking style that we thrive off. We also need to keep our eyes up and actually play what’s in front of us. Actually start looking at what’s going on.. Think the All Blacks aren’t playing instinctively enough! Once upon a time, that was just about all we needed. Our natural awareness and finding a way forward by our wits and brut strength.
Brett McKay
Expert
I really fear that the NZRU selection committee will be too gutless to admit they made a mistake by extending Fosters contract prematurely and they will be impotent to take the necessary step, we all know what that means. That seems like a hell of an over-reaction to one loss, RT!
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
UnderstoodBrett. I just love some of his missile tackles.
WEST
Roar Guru
For the All Blacks.. It’s been a long year, 15 tests. Ten away from home, months on the road. Now one final hurdle, if the ABs pull it off.. 13/15 that’s an acceptable ratio, Foster can breathe a bit easier. Lose three test in a calendar year, that’s one of the worst seasons since 2009. Foster will really start feeling the pressure! Already the ABs tactics are under the microscope, the loss of SA in Super Rugby could be a major contributing factor. Not facing teams that play a forward dominate style similar to the Northern Hemisphere, is starting to hurt rugby development in the Southern Hemisphere. Don’t get me wrong, fast paced running rugby is fun to watch, but it becomes risky when faced against a disciplined, well structured defensive structure. As we’re all finding out with the Wallabies and the All Blacks results. Is this a bad thing to lose a few games, two years out from the pinnacle of rugby that is the World Cup. No, I don’t think so.. It’s a massive learning curve. that if these lessons and experiences are utilised correctly and adapted into the Wallabies and the All Blacks styles and game plans. By 2023 we should be well placed to challenge any of the top Tier teams for the title. Many were ridiculing SA tactics and conservative approach.. When it comes to dealing with the NH, it’s the go to game plan, a game plan that both Wallabies and the ABs need to start addressing quick smart! Oh.. Boks, close win over the poms. Wallabies to put on a convincing win. Pumas to be more competitive this week.. The All Blacks, I’m not sure? Could be a loss or a blow out. I’d rather not say :silly:
West Aussie Exile
Roar Rookie
Just want to talk about the rugby, not the video. Wallabies just need to win and have every chance if they play smart and run direct. I also like the NL 10 and JOC 12 combination. Let's face it, if Quade does not front up over the next 2 years and/or injured, we need a Plan B so give NL the start against WB, and hopefully a win. I would also start Skelton. Opportunity for Samu (if starting) to show us what to do. If we win this game, a better year by far than expected, if we lose, still better than expected. NZ I think will edge France and SA beat England in a close one
Brett McKay
Expert
Who's been playing 12 Ken?